The UK is back in business. Someone forgot to tell British investors: Klement

Economic

Summary:

UK economy leads G7 and stocks outperform, but locals stay pessimistic, selling shares while foreigners buy. Strong earnings, falling trade deficit, and IPOs signal recovery.

Britain’s stock market is outperforming Wall Street in 2025, and the UK economy has enjoyed the fastest growth of any G7 country during the first half of the year. Yet British investors are mostly missing out while foreign buyers are reaping the benefits. The UK stock market has been plagued by sluggish performance and a dearth of IPOs for so long that any good news has a tendency to travel quickly among the local investor community. Last week, I received several emails about a study from Schroders showing that U.S. investors were moving more money into UK stocks than anywhere else. Indeed, after withdrawing almost $100 billion from the UK between 2020 and 2022, the last three years have seen persistent inflows from Americans.

Unfortunately, this optimism about UK stocks doesn’t appear to be shared by UK investors. According to the Investment Association, a UK trade body, retail investors have sold more than £50 billion ($68 billion) in UK equity funds over the last five years while buying more than £25 billion ($34 billion) in international equity funds. And unlike American investors, the domestic crowd has not warmed to UK stocks in the last three years.

Brits’ pessimism regarding their own country is by no means a new phenomenon, particularly if we use consumer sentiment as a gauge. While it has been negative on average for over 40 years, consumers have become much more pessimistic since the end of the financial crisis in 2009. This national gloom has affected both institutional and retail investors. In 1997, UK pension funds on average invested 53% of their assets in UK stocks. By 2022, that had dropped to 6%, according to a study by the think tank New Financial.

Perhaps then it shouldn’t be surprising that the UK economy is doing well not because of the British but despite them. In the first half of 2025, the UK was the fastest-growing G7 country, recording a 2.2% annualised GDP expansion, compared to 1.2% for the U.S. and 1.4% for the euro zone.

But the UK’s surprisingly strong economic activity in the first six months of 2025 came despite lacklustre annualized household consumption growth of 0.9% and a so-so business investment expansion of 1.7%. The main driver of GDP strength was a 20% annualised drop in the UK’s trade deficit as foreigners bought more UK goods and services.

WELCOME SURPRISE

Another group that seems to be oblivious to the recovery in the UK economy and stock market is UK analysts. During the Q2 2025 earnings season, FTSE 350 companies have beaten earnings expectations by 16.5% on average, while stocks in the S&P 500 beat expectations by 8.3%.

Given that roughly an 8% earnings beat is now expected in the U.S., share prices during the current earnings season have actually dropped by an average of 0.9% in the week after earnings releases. Meanwhile, in the UK, share prices have rallied by an average of 1.1% in the week after results, suggesting that investors have been pleasantly surprised by UK companies’ robust earnings.

EXCESSIVE PESSIMISM

Whinging is a national sport in the UK, but the degree of pessimism espoused by UK investors has arguably become excessive. And if I, a German, think that the British have become too pessimistic that means something.

Ultimately, the UK economy appears to be doing just fine, and most leading indicators point to a continued recovery of GDP growth in the second half of this year.

True, inflation has proven sticky, coming in at 3.8% in July, the highest level among wealthy countries, but the jump last month was largely driven by volatile transportation costs. There is also some softness in domestic services demand, and uncertainty surrounding possible tax hikes in autumn is weighing on investment slightly, but these factors are unlikely to derail the longer-term economic recovery. Meanwhile, international businesses are coming back to the UK markets. French media giant Canal+ listed in London last year, Greek energy company Metlen did so in August, and both Norwegian software company Visma and Italian food producer Newlat are expected to hold their IPOs in London.

Investors and businesses around the world seem to realise that the UK’s outlook is persistently improving. Now, if somebody could please tell this to the British, I would be much obliged.

Source: Reuters

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Michelle

Economic

Stocks

U.S. tech stocks seem to have found a level following two days of sharp pullbacks, but the Treasury market was unnerved by the latest Federal Reserve drama just as everyone awaits the central bank’s annual Wyoming jamboree.

U.S. stock futures ended in the red again on Wednesday, driven by a whole host of AI and tech sector jitters ahead of Nvidia's big earnings release next week. But stock futures seemed to find a foothold ahead of today's bell, with attention turning back to the Fed following President Trump's demand for the resignation of another Fed board member - Lisa Cook - over allegations of mortgage fraud that she insists she will contest.

* If Cook were forced out, Trump would then likely secure a majority of his appointees on the seven-person Fed board by next summer. If Chair Jerome Powell, who gives his keynote Jackson Hole speech on Friday, steps down as a board member when his chairmanship ends in May, then a majority of deep rate cut advocates could well emerge on the Fed's policymaking committee with the support of just one regional Fed boss.

* Despite the board machinations, minutes from the Fed's last meeting showed two policymakers - Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman - were alone in voting for a rate cut and it recounted how "almost all" favored holding the policy rate steady last month. Fed futures pricing for September's meeting slipped back to show less than an 80% chance of a rate cut and Treasury yields nudged higher, with a mixed review of the latest 20-year bond auction. The dollar was steady but gold firmed after the Cook story, giving up some of that today.

* The big economic releases around the world today were early August business surveys, which came in above forecast in Europe and Japan - propping the euro, sterling and yen even though stocks in all three areas fell back. U.S. equivalent surveys are due later, with the Philadelphia Fed's August survey also released alongside closely watched jobless claims updates and existing home sales data for July. Walmart tops the earnings diary in a busy week for big retailers.

In today's column, I look at the extraordinary moves by the Trump administration to propose taking stakes in big chipmaking firms, which would radically shift U.S. industrial policy and raise questions about what might next be seen as "strategic"., opens new tab

Today's Market Minute

* Financial markets are taking in a collective breath ahead of Jerome Powell's eighth and final keynote Jackson Hole speech as Federal Reserve Chair. If the moves following his last seven are any guide, writes ROI columnist Jamie McGeever, investors should buckle up for a bumpy ride.

* China is considering allowing the usage of yuan-backed stablecoins for the first time to boost wider adoption of its currency globally, sources familiar with the matter said, in a major reversal of its stance towards digital assets.

* Indian companies have seen the steepest earnings downgrades in Asia, with analysts slashing forecasts as steep U.S. tariffs heighten risks to growth even if proposed domestic tax cuts help cushion the impact.

* Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek on Thursday released DeepSeek-V3.1, an upgraded model with hybrid inference structure, faster thinking speed and stronger agent capability, the company said in a statement published on WeChat.

* U.S. power generation capacity is evolving at the fastest pace in decades, as utilities scramble to ensure that supplies keep up with rapidly growing electricity demand. ROI columnist Gavin Maguire lays out current expectations for the U.S. power generation mix through the next 10 years.

Chart of the day

AI winners and laggards: Big Tech surges, integrators struggle - Shares of firms that integrate AI into enterprise workflows have lost value in the past year

The week's latest tech shakeout, with heavy losses for high flyers such as Nvidia and Palantir, comes as the sector's price-to-earnings ratio recently reached about 30 times expected earnings for the next 12 months, its highest level in a year, and tech's share of overall S&P 500 market value is close to its highest since 2000.

Seeds of doubt over such heady valuations were sown over the past week by a study from researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology that found that 95% of organizations are getting no return on AI investments, and comments by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman that investors may be getting overexcited about AI and some bubbles would emerge and pop.

Today's events to watch

* Philadelphia Federal Reserve's August business survey (8:30 AM EDT), U.S. weekly jobless claims (8:30 AM EDT), S&P Global flash U.S. business surveys for August (9:45 AM EDT) U.S. July existing home sales (10:00 AM EDT); Canada July producer prices (8:30 AM EDT); Euro zone August consumer confidence (10:00 AM EDT)

* Fed's annual Jackson Hole symposium gets underway; Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks

* U.S. corporate earnings: Walmart, Ross Stores, Workday, Intuit

* U.S. Treasury sells $8 billion of 30-year inflation protected securities

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Stocks

Central Bank

Fed Minutes Show Cautious Hold as Tariffs Complicate Outlook

Effective Fed Funds Rate

The Federal Reserve kept rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% at its July 29–30 meeting, signaling caution as inflation pressures from tariffs clash with signs of slowing growth. The minutes highlight a divided Committee, with two members favoring a 25-basis-point cut, arguing inflation—excluding tariffs—was near target while job gains slowed.

Tariffs Put a Wrench in Disinflation Story

US Core PCE Annual Change

Headline PCE inflation stood at 2.6% in June, with core at 2.8%. Disinflation progress has stalled as tariffs lift goods prices. Some Fed officials see the impact as temporary, while others warn prolonged effects could raise expectations. Policymakers emphasized they will not wait for perfect clarity before adjusting policy, keeping markets focused on upcoming inflation data.

Job Market Solid but Cracks Begin to Show

July 2025 Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, still historically low, but private payroll gains slowed and were concentrated in fewer sectors. Fed staff project unemployment rising above its natural rate by year-end, reflecting softer demand and reduced immigration-driven labor supply. GDP growth has been tepid in the first half, with weaker consumption, housing, and business investment offset partly by trade. Several participants expect subdued activity through year-end.

Markets Rally but Fed Flags Hidden Risks

Daily E-mini Nasdaq 100 Index Futures

Equities rallied into the meeting on AI-driven optimism, but officials flagged stretched valuations. Narrower credit spreads suggested resilience, though risks remain in commercial real estate, private debt, and leveraged loans. The Fed also pointed to new risks tied to the rapid growth of payment stablecoins under the GENIUS Act, which could reshape liquidity conditions.

Data-Dependent Fed Keeps Traders Guessing

Most participants judged inflation risks outweigh employment risks, but a growing minority warned downside risks to growth are building. The Fed’s data-dependent stance leaves traders bracing for volatility: hotter inflation prints could keep policy “higher for longer,” while weaker labor data may open the door to cuts later this year.

For markets, the near-term read is supportive for equities, especially tech, with no new tightening signaled. But end-2025 could see greater swings as the Fed confronts the dual challenge of sticky inflation and softening jobs. Traders should expect short bursts of optimism on dovish signals, punctuated by pullbacks if inflation proves persistent.

Source: fxempire

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Stocks

MARKET WRAPS

Stocks:

European stocks fell Thursday as investors weighed ongoing concerns about the artificial-intelligence boom and data showing gains in business activity.

The composite purchasing managers' index for the eurozone rose higher than expected despite U.S. tariffs.

Meanwhile, policymakers and economists were gathering in Wyoming for the start of the Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole symposium.

Jerome Powell's Friday speech will be closely watched for clues on when interest rates might fall.

Shares on the Move

European defense stocks recovered ground after losses earlier in the week amid diplomatic moves for a potential peace deal in Ukraine.

Leonardo, Rheinmetall, Renk and Hensoldt led the gains.

Economic Insight

Better-than-expected U.K. public finances data for July were likely to offer some relief to Treasury chief Rachel Reeves, Investec Economics said.

Pantheon Macroeconomics said, "The big picture remains that the public finances are in chronically weak condition ."

Market Insight

Tech giants need to prove their lofty valuations by generating returns after heavy spending on AI in recent years, Saxo Markets said.

U.S. Markets:

Stock futures were pointing to a slightly lower open after tech stocks were hit again in Wednesday's session.

U.S. data coming Thursday include weekly jobless claims and flash estimate purchasing managers' indexes.

Forex:

The euro stayed very slightly higher against the dollar after eurozone PMI data.

"Overall, we've seen a slight acceleration in growth over the past three months," Hamburg Commercial Bank said.

The dollar rose slightly after the minutes of the Fed's July meeting signalled policymakers were more concerned about high inflation than a slowing labor market. Attention now turns to Powell's speech on Friday.

Bonds:

The 10-year Bund yield ticked higher.

Natixis said the past two weeks had been negative for eurozone government bonds overall.

"In August, the dynamics of euro rates were driven more by strong risk appetite and supply considerations than by data releases or the behaviour of U.S. dollar rates."

The 10-year Treasury yield was up ahead of a string of economic data .

Energy:

Oil prices rebounded as signs of strong U.S. demand improved market sentiment.

Data showing a decline in U.S. crude stockpiles mildly improved oil's short-term outlook, but the broader market mood was still downbeat , ANZ Research said.

Metals:

Gold futures fell and were broadly flat on week.

RBC Capital Markets said hedging and risk management offered the most compelling reasons for buying gold given expectations for the precious metal to remain relatively rangebound, albeit at higher levels.

EMEA HEADLINES

How European Leaders Studied Trump and Learned to Speak His Language

BRUSSELS-Six months ago, President Trump said the European Union was formed to screw America. On Monday, he lavished praise on European leaders as they gathered around a table at the White House to discuss the war in Ukraine.

He complimented German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's tan, told EU chief Ursula von der Leyen she was perhaps the most powerful of his guests at the table and described 57-year-old Finnish President Alexander Stubb as young and powerful.

Novo Nordisk Freezes Hiring in Noncritical Areas

Novo Nordisk said it paused hiring in noncritical business areas, as the Danish drugmaker seeks to tighten cost controls amid challenges in the obesity-drug market.

The move comes shortly after Maziar Mike Doustdar took the reins and at a time the company behind blockbuster drugs Ozempic and Wegovy is looking to fend off competition from knockoff versions of its medicines and from rival Eli Lilly.

CTS Eventim Shares Fall on Lower Key Metric

CTS Eventim shares dropped after the company said a key profit metric fell in the first half year, although it backed the board's full-year guidance despite uncertainty arising from the challenging macroeconomic environment.

Shares were down 15.80 euros, or 16%, at 83.55 euros in early morning European trading. However, they are up 2.1% over the year to date.

Aegon Shares Jump After Raising Shareholder Payout

Shares in Aegon jumped on Thursday after the Dutch insurance and asset-management company said it would increase its buyback program and interim dividend.

In morning trading, shares trade 6.4% higher at 6.85 euros and have risen 20% year to date.

GLOBAL NEWS

U.S. Stock Futures Steady Ahead of Fresh Economic Data

U.S. stock futures were barely changed Thursday in Europe after lingering concerns about the artificial-intelligence-fueled boom knocked the tech sector again in Wednesday's session. Meanwhile, minutes of the Federal Reserve's last meeting showed officials were divided on the inflation outlook even as subsequent economic data have strengthened the argument for rate cuts. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, under pressure from the Trump administration to cut rates in September, speaks at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.

Ahead of that, Thursday brings initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey and flash PMI. Walmart reports earnings after a mixed bag from retailers so far this week.

Treasury Market Awaits Jackson Hole to Get Out of Its Summer Doldrums

The U.S. government bond market has been quiet this month as investors wait to gauge the vibes at Jackson Hole, a gathering of the most powerful voices in policymaking.

The tone at the annual economic symposium on Friday can reawaken the market and set its trajectory ahead.

Trump Turns Up the Heat. Fed Chair Jerome Powell Tries to Keep His Cool.

Minutes before his congressional testimony this summer, Jerome Powell sat alone, staring straight ahead in the wood-paneled chamber, appearing deep in thought.

The Federal Reserve chair later told an associate he felt locked in, prepared for questions about the central bank's chief roles-keeping inflation low and Americans employed. Powell looked steeled for criticism, and he didn't have to wait long.

Fed Minutes Reveal Broad Support for Holding Rates Steady Last Month

The Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady last month was broadly supported despite two officials who dissented in favor of a cut, according to minutes of the policy meeting released Wednesday.

The minutes said "almost all" officials supported the decision, implying that apart from the two dissenting officials, it was backed by the remaining 16 officials who participated.

Trump Orders Pentagon to Deploy Three Warships Against Latin American Drug Cartels

President Trump has ordered the Pentagon to send three Navy warships to interdict drug cartels off the coast of South America, including near Venezuela, expanding the Pentagon's role in combating illegal drug smuggling and intensifying a U.S. confrontation with the country's president, Nicolás Maduro.

The guided-missile destroyers will have authority to interdict drug shipments, according to two people familiar with the planning, giving the Navy a direct counternarcotics mission in Latin America, instead of its customary role supporting the Coast Guard.

North Korea Has a Secret Long-Range Missile Base Near Chinese Border, Report Says

SEOUL-North Korea has a heavily fortified, covert military base that could house its newest long-range ballistic missiles, which are potentially capable of striking the U.S. mainland, according to a new report.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, has identified what it believes is a secret base near the village of Sinpung-dong, about 17 miles from the Chinese border.

According to CSIS, construction of the base started around 2004 and it became operational a decade later. Until recently, however, the site remained undisclosed. CSIS used interviews with informed sources, as well as declassified documents, satellite images and open-source information, to identify the base.

Source : morningstar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Glendon

Economic

Forex

(Aug 21): The euro area’s private sector grew at the quickest pace in 15 months as manufacturing exited a three-year downturn despite a deal locking in higher levies for exports to the US.

The Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index compiled by S&P Global rose to 51.1 in August from 50.9 in July, further above the 50 threshold separating expansion from contraction. Analysts had predicted a reading of 50.6.

While services weakened a little, in line with estimates, manufacturing saw a jump to 50.5, bucking expectations for a slight slowdown and recording its first expansion since June 2022. Germany’s factory sector also neared the end of a three-year slump.

“Things are getting better,” Cyrus de la Rubia, an economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said Thursday in a statement. “Despite headwinds like US tariffs and general uncertainty, businesses across the eurozone seem to be coping reasonably well.”

The euro was steady against the dollar at US$1.1654 after erasing small losses earlier, while euro area bonds held declines with the German 10-year yield two basis points higher at 2.73%.

The data provide more evidence of Europe’s resilience to obstacles ranging from trade to wars, and will support those European Central Bank officials who say there’s no rush into lowering interest rates further.

President Christine Lagarde said Wednesday that the 15% US levy on most goods from the European Union, which kicked in this month, is a touch above the level the ECB assumed in its June projections but “well below” a more severe scenario it had also mapped out.

Even so, the pact with President Donald Trump’s administration looks like it will crimp business in the months ahead, according to de la Rubia, who highlighted a second straight decline in foreign orders for eurozone manufacturers.

“US trade policy is leaving its mark,” he said. “Germany had been holding up well, possibly due to pre-emptive purchases from the US, but now it’s also seeing a drop in orders. France has climbed out of the deep hole of falling foreign demand over the last months, but incoming orders are still on the decline.”

Germany’s economy will probably stagnate in the third quarter after a slight contraction in the second, the Bundesbank said Thursday in its monthly report. While the US trade deal eased uncertainty, it remains high given unanswered questions and the “volatile US economic policy,” it said, without excluding a small gain in output over 2025 as a whole.

“The PMI survey suggests economic activity is picking up. The pace of expansion will, however, likely remain muted in the near term as weak external demand and high uncertainty act as a drag. With the economy far from crashing, we think the ECB will leave interest rates unchanged until December,” said Bloomberg Economics.

The eurozone’s 20-nation economy unexpectedly eked out growth of 0.1% between April and June, though this was significantly lower than the 0.6% expansion in the previous three months, which was driven by tariff-related front-loading. Inflation is hovering around the ECB’s 2% target.

Officials in Frankfurt are widely expected to leave the key deposit rate at 2% when they reconvene after their summer break in September, extending a pause that began last month following a yearlong campaign of cuts.

PMIs are closely watched by markets as they arrive early in the month and are good at revealing trends and turning points in an economy. A measure of breadth of changes in output rather than depth, business surveys can sometimes be difficult to map directly to quarterly GDP.

A PMI reading from the UK came in far ahead of expectations, at 53, while the US composite number, due later Thursday, is also estimated to have remained well over 50.

Source: Theedgemarkets

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Samantha Luan

Economic

Latest news on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

Political

Palestinian-Israeli conflict

Israeli media is reporting that around 60,000 Israeli reservists are set to receive call-up orders on Wednesday as the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) gear up for a major assault on Gaza City.A report in Times of Israel notes that reservists will have up to two weeks before going to their duty stations, but not all will be directly involved in the Gaza City offensive, as some are needed replace Israeli forces currently stationed in other parts of Gaza.

Anadolu Agency

The controversial Netanyahu-ordered expanded offensive which aims to achieve total control of Gaza City is expected to displace over a million Palestinian civilians.The IDF is prepared to use artillery to forcibly remove them, and a ramped-up air campaign has already been underway. Arab media sources, including Al Jazeera, have said that areas with a lot of tent shelters for refugees have at times been directly struck.

Israel's military has issued evacuation orders, and is framing this as simply a mass transfer, while the Palestinian side along with international human rights monitors have decried an ethnic cleansing and land grab in progress.Reports in Israeli media have further described that after capturing the city, the IDF plans to spend over a year systematically demolishing it, which is precisely what previously happened in Beit Hanoun, Beit Lahia, and Jabalia.

The ostensible justification is for removal of "Hamas infrastructure" - but critics have said it is ultimately to pave the way for Jewish settlement of the Gaza Strip.The question remains, where will these Gazans go? Israel has been seeking to pressure some regional and even north African countries to take them in.To be expected, these conversations have gone nowhere especially as regional Arab states have already historically absorbed hundreds of thousands. For example, the majority of the population of Jordan actually has Palestinian roots.

Just life Rafah...

The Trump administration has meanwhile appeared to greenlight the takeover plans, in a break from Europe - which has grown much more critical of Israeli policy and loud over the last months.Some EU states like Denmark are even mulling sanctions on Israel, and several major US allies are set to recognize the state of Palestine at the upcoming UN General Assembly meeting in September.

Source: Zero Hedge

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Blue River

Technical Analysis

With Japan’s PMI declining and the US PMI remaining uncertain, the USDJPY rate may reach 149.00.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

Japan’s services PMI: previously at 53.6, currently at 52.7
US services PMI: previously at 49.8, projected at 49.7
USDJPY forecast for 21 August 2025: 149.00

Fundamental analysis

Fundamental analysis for 21 August 2025 shows the USDJPY pair holding steady, trading sideways near 147.40.

Japan’s services PMI covers a wide range of industries, including transport and communications, financial intermediation, business and household services, IT, hospitality and restaurants.

The USDJPY forecast for today does not appear optimistic for the yen, with the PMI down to 52.7 from the previous reading. Although the figure remains above the 50.0 threshold, which indicates expansion, the yen continues to lose ground against the US dollar.

In the US, the services PMI is forecast to ease slightly from 49.8 to 49.7. While such a move may not be critical, it is important to note that forecasts can diverge significantly from actual results, which could either strengthen or weaken the USD.

USDJPY technical analysis

Having tested the lower Bollinger Band, the USDJPY pair formed a Hammer reversal pattern near 147.40 on the H4 chart. At this stage, the pair may continue its upward trajectory in line with the pattern’s signal. The USDJPY rate remains within an ascending channel, which supports the case for growth towards resistance near 149.00.

At the same time, the USDJPY forecast also considers an alternative scenario where the price dips to 146.50 before resuming its upward movement.