The European Central Bank is almost guaranteed to cut rates. Here’s what could happen next

Economic

Central Bank

Summary:

The European Central Bank is set to cut interest rates by 25 basis points amid slowing growth and easing inflation. Further cuts are likely, though future moves remain uncertain due to global risks.

The European Central Bank is all but guaranteed to trim its key interest rate on Thursday.

Markets were last pricing in an around 99% chance of a 25-basis-point cut, according to LSEG data. That would take the deposit facility rate to 2% — half of the mid-2023 high of 4%.

But Europe faces a highly uncertain economic outlook, raising the question of what the ECB could do beyond Thursday’s meeting.

Inflation is now hovering around the central bank’s 2% target again, with flash data on Tuesday showing consumer prices in the euro zone rose just 1.9% in May. Meanwhile, economic growth has still been sluggish: The gross domestic product in the euro zone grew by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, according to the latest estimate.

The bloc faces many unknowns, both at home and abroad. That includes U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda — widely regarded as having a negative impact on growth — and potential retaliatory moves from the European Union, as well as how the EU’s major rearmament plans and Germany’s big fiscal shift could play out.

Here’s what analysts say about the central bank’s potential next steps, and what they might mean for consumers.

Rate outlook for the rest of the year

Analysts and economists are widely expecting more interest rate cuts from the ECB later in the year, but aren’t counting on the bank to give a strong indication of where exactly rates could be headed.

Tuesday’s inflation figures increased chances that, after this week, the next rate trim could come as soon as July, said Jack Allen-Reynolds, deputy chief euro zone economist.

Others struck a more cautious tone, with Barclays economists suggesting in a note last week that rate cuts are on the horizon but won’t be implemented as soon.

“We believe the ECB will remain non-committal on its policy path and continue to follow a meeting-by-meeting approach to maintain flexibility and optionality in policy calibration,” they said.

They’re also expecting more rate cuts from the ECB, forecasting two more 25-basis-point reductions in September and December — meaning the ECB would hold rates steady over the summer months.

Elsewhere, a BofA Global Research report published earlier this week said the ECB was now “running out of reasons not to go below 2%,” echoing the suggestion of further rate cuts on the horizon.

But, it noted, the ECB is unlikely to give hints about just how low it could go.

“We expect some acknowledgment that door is open to move rates below 2%, but a very explicit signal is unlikely. Uncertainty on tariffs will give the Governing Council enough cover to not pre-commit to more,” the report said.

Crucially, the ECB will also publish its latest staff projections this week, highlighting what it expects for inflation and economic growth. That comes after the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s latest Economic Outlook report, which forecast 1% growth and 2.2% inflation for the euro area this year.

How rate cuts might affect consumers

For consumers, more ECB rate cuts would mainly affect borrowing and savings rates.

Exactly how it plays out for them depends on what type of products they hold, and how long the rates on them are set for, Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist at RaboResearch, told CNBC.

For example, he said, a 10-year fixed mortgage and a demand deposit would be affected in different ways.

“The interest rate on short-term deposits tends to follow the deposit rate quite closely,” he said.

“A week after the ECB meeting, the policy rate goes into effect. So, if the ECB cuts the deposit rate Thursday, banks will receive 0.25% lower interest on their deposits with the central bank. This may cause them to lower the interest rate they pay on savings accounts as well,” van Geffen explained.

Products with fixed longer-term rates have a more complicated relationship with central bank interest rates, he said, as they’re not only determined by the current policy rate — which often changes — but also by future expectations.

“The market has long been expecting the ECB to cut rates this week. So, that may already be included in long-term interest rates to some extent. That also means that these long-term rates do not necessarily change after this week’s policy decision,” van Geffen said.

source : cnbc

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Thomas

Economic

The U.S. services sector contracted for the first time in nearly a year in May while businesses paid higher prices for inputs, a reminder that the economy remains in danger of experiencing a period of very slow growth and high inflation.

The survey from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Wednesday showed uncertainty was the dominant theme among businesses as they tried to navigate President Donald Trump's constantly shifting trade policy.

The whiplash from the tariffs that Trump has announced, paused, and imposed has left most businesses in limbo and struggling to plan ahead, to the detriment of the economy. The Trump administration has given U.S. trading partners until Wednesday to make their "best offers" to avoid other punishing import levies from taking effect in early July.

"Until there is clarity on the trading environment, it appears that the business sector will remain wary of putting money to work," said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING.

The ISM said its nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) dropped to 49.9 last month, the first decline below the 50 mark and lowest reading since June 2024. It stood at 51.6 in April.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the services PMI would rise to 52.0 following some easing in the U.S.-China trade tensions. A PMI reading below 50 indicates contraction in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy. The ISM associates a PMI reading above 48.6 over time with growth in the overall economy.

"May's PMI level is not indicative of a severe contraction, but rather uncertainty," said Steve Miller, chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee. "Respondents continued to report difficulty in forecasting and planning due to longer-term tariff uncertainty and frequently cited efforts to delay or minimize ordering until impacts become clearer."

The ISM on Monday reported that manufacturing contracted for a third straight month in May, with suppliers taking the longest time in nearly three years to deliver inputs amid tariffs.

Retailers, airlines and auto manufacturers are among the businesses that have either withdrawn or refrained from giving financial guidance for 2025. While economists do not expect a recession this year, stagflation is on the radar of many.

Public administration, utilities, educational services, information as well as healthcare and social assistance were among the 10 services industries reporting growth. Eight industries, including retail trade, construction, transportation and warehousing, reported contraction.

Businesses in the construction industry said "tariff variability has thrown residential construction supply chains into chaos," adding that "major heating, ventilation and air conditioning equipment manufacturers are passing on their cost increases due to higher refrigerant and steel commodity prices."

They also noted that "planning is difficult for community projects that could be scheduled for the next 22 to 30 months."

Trump on Tuesday doubled steel and aluminium duties to 50%. Businesses in the information sector said tariffs were a challenge "as it is not clear what duties apply," adding "the best plan is still to delay decisions to purchase where possible." Transportation and warehousing businesses said the import duties had "increased the cost of doing business."

The White House's unprecedented campaign to slash spending also impacted purchasing decisions by companies in the healthcare and social assistance industry. But tariffs are boosting demand for retailers as some customers pull purchases forward to avoid higher prices. Demand for data centers was driving activity for businesses in the utility industry.

Stocks on Wall Street were largely flat. The dollar eased against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury yields fell.

ISM services PMI

WEAK ORDERS

The ISM survey's new orders measure dropped to 46.4, the lowest reading in nearly 2-1/2 years, from 52.3 in April, likely as the boost from front-running related to tariffs faded. Data on Tuesday showed the new light vehicle sales rate slumped in May by the most in about five years.

Services sector customers viewed their inventory as too high in relation to business requirements, which does not bode well for activity in the near term. Backlog orders were the lowest in nearly two years.

Suppliers' delivery performance continued to worsen. This, together with lengthening delivery times at factories, points to strained supply chains that could drive inflation higher through shortages. Businesses are also seeking to pass on tariffs, which are a tax, to consumers.

That effort was corroborated by a report from the New York Federal Reserve showing the majority of businesses in its district said they had passed on at least some of the tariffs in the form of higher prices in May. Companies also flagged considerable confusion and uncertainty in navigating the duties.

The ISM survey's supplier deliveries index for the services sector rose to 52.5 from 51.3 in April. A reading above 50 indicates slower deliveries. A lengthening in suppliers' delivery times is normally associated with a strong economy. Delivery times are, however, likely getting longer because of supply-chain bottlenecks.

That situation was reinforced by a surge in the survey's measure of prices paid for services inputs to 68.7, the highest level since November 2022, from 65.1 in April. Most economists anticipate the tariff hit to inflation and employment could become evident in the so-called hard economic data by this summer.

Services sector employment picked up. The survey's measure of services employment rose to 50.7 from 49.0 in April. Some companies said "higher scrutiny is being placed on all jobs that need to be filled." The index is generally consistent with a steadily cooling labor market.

Economists shrugged off the release on Wednesday of the ADP National Employment Report, which showed private payrolls increased by only 37,000 jobs in May, the smallest gain since March 2023, after a rise of 60,000 in April. They noted ADP had a poor record predicting the government's closely watched employment report.

The government is expected to report on Friday that nonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000 jobs in May after advancing by 177,000 in April, a Reuters survey of economists showed. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.2%.

Source: Reuters

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Adam

Commodity

Natural Gas Futures Pressured by Weak Demand but Supported by Hotter Outlook

U.S. natural gas futures are showing signs of exhaustion after Monday’s sharp rally, slipping slightly on Wednesday as traders assess near-term weather and technical signals. While short-term resistance levels are forming below the 50-day moving average, expectations for above-normal mid-June temperatures are lending some support to July contracts.

Can Technical Resistance at the 50-Day MA Hold Off Further Gains?

Price action is being capped by minor tops at $3.764, $3.832, and $3.859, with the 50-day moving average at $3.900 acting as the key breakout level. On the downside, the 200-day moving average at $3.548 is offering major support. Although typically a break below this level would signal a trend reversal, current price behavior is showing limited follow-through selling. Traders appear hesitant to chase weakness given seasonally bullish potential from temperature-driven demand.

Will Forecasted Heat Drive a Demand Rebound for Power Burn?

Weather forecaster Atmospheric G2 is calling for above-normal temperatures across much of the central and eastern U.S. from June 8–12, with further heat possible through mid-month. This aligns with recent strength in July Nymex natural gas (NGN25), which gained another $0.028 (+0.76%) on Tuesday after Monday’s sharp rally. Hotter conditions increase power burn from utilities, as cooling demand rises — particularly across the southern U.S., where temperatures are already surging into the 90s and 100s.

Is Weak Demand and Supply Growth a Bearish Underpinning?

Despite the bullish weather outlook, underlying fundamentals remain soft. Lower-48 gas production rose to 103.9 bcf/day (+1.7% y/y), while gas demand slipped to 68.8 bcf/day (-2.7% y/y). LNG export flows also fell to 12.9 bcf/day, down 12.9% week-over-week. Additionally, electricity generation dropped 4.4% y/y for the week ending May 24, reducing utility gas demand. The latest EIA storage report also weighed on sentiment, showing a +101 bcf injection — above the 5-year average — and inventories standing +3.9% above seasonal norms.

Will Storage Surplus and Slowing Exports Weigh on Summer Prices?

European gas storage levels were reported at 49% full as of June 1, notably below the 60% five-year average, though still not alarming. Domestically, drilling activity remains subdued, with Baker Hughes reporting only 99 active rigs — slightly off the recent four-year low. While this limits forward supply growth, near-term fundamentals appear well-balanced, if not slightly loose.

Market Forecast: Neutral-to-Bullish Bias Holds for Now

With production steady and demand lagging, short-term gas prices face resistance. However, the potential for persistent June heat could tighten balances through higher cooling-related power burn. As long as prices hold above the 200-day moving average and weather forecasts stay hot, the bias favors a neutral-to-bullish stance in the short term, particularly if $3.900 resistance is breached.

source : fxempire

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Adam

Forex

The Indian rupee will eke out very modest gains this year, trailing most of its Asian peers as the U.S. dollar retreats, according to a Reuters poll of foreign exchange strategists.

A partially convertible currency, the rupee has barely made any advances against the greenback this year, placing it among the worst performers in Asia. It has not received much support from news of unexpectedly strong growth in the last quarter, either.

The U.S. dollar has been knocked off its perch over concerns about U.S. President Donald Trump's erratic tariff policy and more recently because of a ballooning fiscal deficit after the House of Representatives passed a sweeping tax cut and spending bill.

Most strategists in the May 30–June 4 Reuters poll did not expect the rupee to make any substantial gains from here, despite widespread expectations for a greenback decline over the coming months due to falling demand for dollar-denominated assets.

Over the next three months, the rupee was forecast to gain about 0.8%, trading at 85.25 per dollar by end-August, and then trade at 85.10 in six months and 85.25 in a year, the poll of 41 FX strategists showed.

As of Wednesday, the rupee was down roughly 0.3% for the year against the greenback, while regional peers such as the Korean won, Thai baht, Malaysian ringgit and Philippine peso all gained over 4%.

That tepid outlook comes even as Asia's third-largest economy posted robust 7.4% growth in the January–March quarter, far exceeding forecasts and marking the fastest rise since early 2024.

"The rupee is on somewhat stable footing right now and is likely to hold steady, especially in a weak dollar environment," said Dhiraj Nim, FX strategist at ANZ.

"Q1 GDP came in much stronger than expected, adding upside risk to India's growth story. But in any global risk-off scenario, capital tends to seek safety. And I don't think India is where global capital can find safety."

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.75% on Friday and by another quarter point to 5.50% later in the year. But the cumulative 100 basis points of cuts expected is one of the shallowest campaigns in over a decade.

ANZ's Nim also said the RBI is likely intervening intermittently in the currency market to keep rupee volatility in check.

Having already committed to selling billions of dollars through derivatives contracts in the future, the RBI is expected to buy back substantial amounts of U.S. dollars to maintain its foreign exchange reserves, currently around $693 billion.

These dollar purchases are expected to put additional pressure on the rupee, which has fallen over 2% since its near seven-month high on May 2, limiting its ability to strengthen further.

"We expect the rupee to underperform peers even as the dollar remains under pressure," wrote Mitul Kotecha, head of FX and EM macro strategy Asia at Barclays.

"Following the end of Shaktikanta Das' term as RBI governor, we had noted a regime change for the INR, as the currency transitions to a more flexible trading range, while resuming its long-term depreciation trend. We believe the recent bout of INR strength...is unlikely to be sustained."

Source: reuters

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James Whitman

Economic

Political

China–U.S. Trade War

Key points:

● USTR, EU trade negotiators report constructive talks

● Doubled tariffs kick in on steel and aluminium imports

● Congressional Budget Office says tariffs will slow U.S. economic output

● China rare earths clampdown disrupts European automakers

● Trump says Xi 'extremely hard to make a deal with'

● Trading partners urged to submit proposals to avoid 'Liberation Day' tariffs

The United States and European Union said trade talks advanced quickly and in the right direction on Wednesday, top negotiators said, despite a stumbling block posed by new U.S. metals tariffs.

President Donald Trump's doubling of tariffs on steel and aluminium imports kicked in on Wednesday, the same day his administration sought "best offers" from trading partners to avoid other punishing import levies from taking effect in July.

The 27-nation EU's trade negotiator, Maros Sefcovic, and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said their meeting in Paris was constructive.

"We both concluded that we are advancing in the right direction, at pace," Sefcovic told reporters. Technical talks are ongoing in Washington, he said, and high-level contacts will follow.

"What makes me optimistic is I see the progress ... the discussions are now very concrete," Sefcovic said, adding that he and Greer had agreed to restructure the focus of their talks.

Greer said the talks were advancing quickly and demonstrated "a willingness by the EU to work with us to find a concrete way forward to achieve reciprocal trade."

Trump has made charging U.S. importers tariffs on goods from foreign countries the central policy of his ongoing trade wars, which have severely disrupted global trade flows and roiled financial markets.

The Republican president has long been angered by the massive federal trade deficit, saying it was emblematic of how trading partners "take advantage" of the U.S. He sees tariffs as a tool to bring more manufacturing - and the jobs that go with that - back to the United States.

However, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office said on Wednesday that U.S. economic output will fall as a result of Trump's new tariffs on foreign goods that were in place as of May 13.

In another sign of disruptions to global trade, concerns about the damage from China's restrictions on critical mineral exports deepened, with some European auto parts plants suspending output and German carmaker BMWwarning that its supplier network was affected by shortages of rare earths.

Separately, Trump said early on Wednesday that Chinese President Xi Jinping is tough and "extremely hard to make a deal with," exposing frictions after the White House raised expectations for a long-awaited phone call between the two leaders this week over trade issues including critical minerals.

METALS JOLT MARKETS

The expected hike in the levies jolted the market for both metals this week, especially for aluminum, which has seen price premiums more than double this year.

Late on Tuesday, Trump signed an executive proclamation on a hike in the tariffs on imported steel and aluminium to 50% from the 25% rate introduced in March.

The increase came into effect at 12:01 a.m. (0401 GMT) Wednesday. It applies to all trading partners except Britain, the only country so far to strike a preliminary trade agreement with the U.S. during a 90-day pause on a wider array of Trump tariffs.

Sefcovic said he deeply regretted the doubling of the steel tariffs, stressing that the EU has the same challenge - overcapacity - as the United States on steel, and that they should work together on that.

About a quarter of all steel used in the U.S. is imported, and Census Bureau data shows the increased levies will hit the closest U.S. trading partners - Canada and Mexico - especially hard.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said intensive negotiations continued Wednesday on the new U.S. tariffs, which he considers illegal.

Canada is even more exposed to the aluminum levies as the top exporter to the U.S. by far at roughly twice the rest of the top 10 exporters' volumes combined. The U.S. gets about half of its aluminum from foreign sources.

Global forex, bond and stock markets took the latest tariffs in their stride, with many investors betting that the current levies may not last and that the president will back off from such extreme actions.

HAVOC FOR BUSINESSES

Uncertainty around U.S. trade policy has created havoc for businesses around the world.

The new tariffs will affect "everything from autos to aircraft to aluminum beer containers to cans for processed goods to machinery and equipment," said Georgetown University professor Marc Busch, a trade policy expert. "It's hard to imagine what won't be impacted in terms of manufacturing industries."

The Aluminum Association urged the Trump administration to reserve high tariffs for bad actions including China and include carve outs for partners like Canada.

"Doing so will ensure the U.S. economy has the access to the aluminum it needs to grow, while we work with the administration to increase domestic production,” said Matt Meenan, the group's vice president of external affairs.

'BEST OFFER' DUE DATE

Wednesday is also when the White House expects trading partners to propose deals that might help them avoid Trump's hefty "reciprocal" tariffs on imports across the board from taking effect in five weeks.

U.S. officials have been in talks with several countries since Trump announced a pause on those tariffs on April 9, but so far only the UK deal has materialised and even that pact is essentially a preliminary framework for more talks.

Reuters reported on Monday that Washington was asking countries to list their best proposals in such key areas as suggested tariffs and quotas for U.S. products and plans to remedy any non-tariff barriers.

In turn, the letter promises answers "within days" with an indication of what tariff rates countries can expect after the 90-day pause ends on July 8.

Source: Reuters

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Adam

Stocks

Stocks Inch Higher as Soft Jobs Data Limits Gains

U.S. stocks posted modest gains shortly after the opening on Wednesday, with early enthusiasm tempered by a disappointing labor market report that raised concerns about economic momentum.

S&P500 and Nasdaq 100: Tech Stocks Rally but ADP Miss Dampens Sentiment_1

Daily E-mini S&P 500 Index

t 13:45 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 60 points, or 0.17%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose 0.26% and 0.34% respectively.

Private payrolls data from ADP showed the slowest job growth in over two years, increasing just 37,000 in May—well short of the 110,000 expected.

Could Weak ADP Jobs Data Pressure the Federal Reserve?

The soft labor print increases pressure on the Federal Reserve ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, currently projected to show a gain of 125,000. President Donald Trump reignited his public feud with Fed Chair Jerome Powell, posting “Too Late Powell” and urging a rate cut shortly after the ADP data dropped. The market is now pricing in growing expectations for monetary easing if labor market weakness persists.

Tech Stocks Extend Gains as Nvidia Tops Microsoft Again

S&P500 and Nasdaq 100: Tech Stocks Rally but ADP Miss Dampens Sentiment_2

Daily NVIDIA Corporation

Technology stocks continued to underpin broader market strength. Nvidia rose nearly 3%, reclaiming its title as the most valuable public company and extending gains on Wednesday alongside Broadcom. The tech-heavy Nasdaq’s rally over recent sessions has reinforced trader confidence, despite ongoing concerns over tariffs and soft economic data.

Tariffs Back in Play After Court Reversal, but Traders Stay Focused on Earnings

Daily Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company

Despite temporary reinstatement of tariffs by a federal appeals court, traders appear more focused on corporate earnings. Hewlett Packard Enterprise jumped over 7% after beating estimates and raising guidance, citing minimal tariff impact. Thor Industries surged 12% on strong earnings and full-year guidance reaffirmation. However, CrowdStrike and Asana fell sharply after issuing revenue forecasts that fell short of expectations.

Sector Performance Mixed as Defensive Plays Lag

Sector-wise, Health Care led with a 0.97% gain, followed by Communication Services and Technology. Energy also climbed 0.46%, supported by firm oil prices. Defensive areas like Utilities and Consumer Staples lagged, down 1.04% and 0.44%, respectively, reflecting a shift toward risk-on sentiment.

What’s Next for Traders? All Eyes on Friday’s Jobs Report

The ADP miss has heightened the stakes for Friday’s government payroll data. A second weak print could push the Fed closer to a policy pivot. Traders should also monitor tariff developments and earnings reports, as market sentiment remains highly sensitive to both economic data and trade rhetoric.

Source: fxempire

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Thomas

Commodity

Having surged overnight and extended gains on a big crude draw (and trade-talk progress with the Europeans), oil prices are tanking now as Bloomberg reports that, according to people familiar with the matter, Saudi Arabia wants OPEC+ to continue with accelerated oil supply hikes in the coming months as it puts greater importance on regaining lost market share.

The kingdom, which holds an increasingly dominant position within OPEC+, wants the group to add at least 411,000 barrels a day in August and potentially September, the people said, asking not to be named because the information was private.

Riyadh is keen to unwind its cuts as quickly as possible to take advantage of peak demand during the northern hemisphere summer, one person said.

The reaction was instant, slamming WTI down 2%...

We would imagine Russia will not be pleased at this outburst (or the US shale producers or the Kazakhs), but Trump might be happy with what his old friends in The Kingdom are saying (and doing).

Crude prices are higher this morning on signs of progress in trade talks between the US and EU and the API report of a major drawdown in American crude inventories (despite product builds).

Geopolitical tensions continue to drive prices more aggressively as the possibility of a Putin-Zelensky meeting came and went and Iranian peace deal talks stumble.

The big question for traders is - will the official data confirm API's drawdown?

API

Crude -3.28mm
Cushing +952k
Gasoline +4.73mm
Distillates +761k

DOE

Crude -4.30mm
Cushing +576k
Gasoline +5.22mm
Distillates +4.23mm

The official data confirmed API's report with a large crude draw offset by big draws in products...

Source: Bloomberg

Even including the 509k barrel addition to the SPR, total crude stocks fell by the most since December...

Source: Bloomberg

The rig count continues to slide (now at its lowest since Dec 2021), and despite Trump's 'Drill, Baby, Drill' push, US crude production remains well of its highs...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI extended gains after the official data confirmed API's...

Source: Bloomberg

Oil rose at the start of the week after a decision by OPEC+ to increase production in July was in line with expectations, easing concerns over a bigger hike.

However, prices are still down about 11% this year on fears around a looming supply glut, while traders continue to monitor US trade tariffs as President Donald Trump said his Chinese counterpart is “extremely hard” to make a deal with.

Saudi Arabia led increases in OPEC oil production last month as the group began its series of accelerated supply additions, according to a Bloomberg survey.

Nevertheless, the hike fell short of the full amount the kingdom could have added under the agreements.