Swiss Firms Accelerate Foreign Investment to Navigate US Tariff Shifts

Oil prices were steady on Friday, supported by stalled Ukraine peace talks, though gains were offset by expectations of a supply glut.

Brent crude was down 8 cents, or 0.1%, to $63.18 per barrel by 1032 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate dipped 14 cents, or 0.2%, to $59.53 a barrel.

For the week, Brent was largely stable and WTI was on track to log a gain of about 1.7%, marking a second straight weekly increase.

"It is quite flat today and this week had a narrow trading range," said Tamas Vargas, an oil market analyst at PVM. "The lack of progress in the Ukrainian peace talks provides a bullish backdrop but on the other hand, resilient OPEC production provides a bearish backstop. These two opposing forces make trading seemingly quiet."

The market is also assessing the impact of a possible U.S. Fed rate cut and tensions with Venezuela, both of which could boost oil prices, analysts said.

Of economists surveyed in a November 28 to December 4 Reuters poll, 82% expected a 25-basis-point interest rate reduction at next week's Federal Reserve policy meeting. A rate cut would stimulate economic growth and energy demand.

"Looking ahead, supply factors remain in focus. A peace deal with Russia would bring more barrels to the market and likely push prices down," said Anh Pham, a senior research specialist at LSEG.

"On the other hand, any geopolitical escalation will drive prices higher. OPEC+ has agreed to keep production steady until early next year, so it adds some support for prices too," he said.

Markets also continued to brace for a potential U.S. military incursion into Venezuela after President Donald Trump said late last week the U.S. would start taking action to stop Venezuelan drug traffickers on land "very soon".

Rystad Energy said in a note that such a move could put at risk Venezuela's 1.1 million barrels per day of crude oil production, which goes mostly to China.

Prices were also boosted this week by the failure of U.S. talks in Moscow to achieve any significant breakthrough over the war in Ukraine, which could have included a deal to let Russian oil back into the market.

Those factors kept prices supported despite a growing surplus.

Saudi Arabia cut its January Arab Light crude selling prices to Asia to the lowest level in five years amid oversupply, according to a document reviewed by Reuters on Thursday.

Source: Reuters

Taxing expensive homes to raise less than 0.1% of total government receipts is hardly a fiscal revolution. But the modest beginnings of Britain's proposed mansion tax shouldn't obscure its potential significance. History and international experience suggest the high-value council tax surcharge is likely to become bigger and broader in scope as time goes on. A shiny new dial has been created on the fiscal dashboard; the temptation to turn it will be hard to resist.

UK property taxes may start out temporary and small, but they tend to stay and grow. Stamp duty, for instance, began in 1694 as a levy to finance one of Britain's frequent wars with France. Originally, it was a paperwork fee, with documents requiring a physical stamp to be recognized as legally valid. Parliament expected it to last four years. It's now in its fourth century. In the 2024-25 financial year, stamp duty on residential property transactions netted more than £10 billion ($13 billion), or more than 25 times as much as the estimated revenue from the mansion tax.

Even three decades ago, stamp duty was still largely a symbolic tax — levied at 1% and only on houses changing hands for more than £250,000. Given the average UK property price was about £55,000 at the time, only a small fraction of purchases were liable. Tony Blair's Labour government created the modern system with a 2003 overhaul that made it easier to raise rates, change thresholds and add surcharges (adding "land tax" to the name recognized that it was a transaction levy rather than an administration fee). In 2014, Conservative Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne increased the top rate to 12% on properties valued at more than £1.5 million, where it remains.

Stamp duty became a bigger contributor to government revenue despite being almost universally disliked by economists, who regularly cite it as one of the UK's worst-designed taxes. Transaction levies distort behavior by deterring deals that would be mutually beneficial, harming labor mobility and dragging on productivity and economic growth. But when governments need to raise money, they turn to the levers they have.

And taxing property has some obvious advantages. For one thing, it's immobile and hard to hide — you can't sequester your Mayfair mansion in a Caribbean tax haven. While wealth taxes have frequently been rolled back, recurring levies based on property value have tended to survive and expand — Switzerland, Spain, Norway and Denmark being among the examples. France in 2018 abandoned its wealth tax and replaced it with the impôt sur la fortune immobilière, or IFI, which levies progressive rates on net taxable real estate wealth starting at €1.3 million, the equivalent of £1.1 million.

Before last week's budget, speculation suggested that the government was looking at targeting the two highest council-tax bands to raise as much as £4.2 billion. In the event, it set a much higher threshold of £2 million (affecting only the highest band) and will raise a mere £400 million. A broader mansion tax might still be the long-term direction of travel, though.

Minouche Shafik, Prime Minister Keir Starmer's chief economic adviser, wanted to see sweeping changes to property taxes but was blocked by political figures in Downing Street who feared there would be too many losers among England's middle classes, according to the Observer. Shafik, a former president of the London School of Economics, chaired an inquiry by the Resolution Foundation think tank that recommended implementing a proportional property tax, or PPT, a recurring charge based on a percentage of valuation that many economists see as more efficient than stamp duty or the existing system of council tax. Look at the implications and the political concern is easy to understand. The highest mansion tax surcharge, applying to homes valued at more than £5 million, will be £7,500. Under a PPT set at 0.5% (in the ballpark for most proposals) a £5 million house would pay £25,000.

There are practical reasons for starting small. The mansion tax will necessitate the first wave of official residential property revaluations in England in more than three decades. The Valuation Office Agency is already burdened with a backlog of challenges related to council tax bands and business rates. Once the administrative infrastructure has been built, it becomes easy to extend the tax's reach into a wider range of valuations. In the meantime, a narrower base limits the potential for backlash.

In fact, the political dynamics for a mansion tax are favorable — if jarring change can be avoided. It's a proposal with many winners and few losers (though these, problematically, are concentrated in London and the Southeast). The government framed the change as being about fairness, and it's an argument that resonates. A decades-long runup in property prices has created much intergenerational unfairness. Young people who don't have access to the Bank of Mum and Dad — and their accumulated windfall property gains — face a much more difficult task to get on the housing ladder. Meanwhile, slowing growth and fiscal pressures have helped fan global momentum for taxing property wealth.

That suggests that, once created, the levy will act like a ratchet — easy to ramp up but very hard to roll back. The limited scope of the mansion tax prompted understandable relief in the property market. The reprieve is unlikely to be permanent.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

Momentum weakens

Manufacturing output in France edged down slightly in October, falling by 0.1% after a strong 0.9% increase in September. Across the broader industrial sector, production rose by 0.2% on the month, following a 0.7% gain in September. Sector performance was mixed: output in electrical, electronic, and IT equipment dropped sharply by 2.2%, while coke and refining surged by 3.6%, and most other sectors remained broadly stable.

Over the past three months, manufacturing output has been up 0.2% compared to the previous three-month period and 1.1% year-on-year. The picture is far bleaker in the construction sector, where output fell by 0.6% on the month and 1.4% over the year.

These figures paint a mixed picture of French industry. After a rebound since June, momentum appears to be fading, and business sentiment does not point to an imminent recovery. Production expectations among manufacturers declined in November, while order books contracted sharply. As a result, industrial output is likely to make a smaller contribution to GDP growth in the fourth quarter.

Military spending and uncertainty in 2026

Looking ahead to 2026, the outlook remains mixed. On the positive side, France should continue to benefit from rising global military spending. As the world's second-largest arms exporter, with defence accounting for nearly 5% of total industry, France is the European country most exposed to this trend. Between 2022 and 2025, defence-related production grew by more than 20%, while overall industrial output remained flat. Order books and sentiment in the defence sector remain strong, suggesting that military spending will continue to support industrial production and GDP growth.

On the downside, political and fiscal uncertainty is likely to weigh on domestic investment and moderate activity growth, putting pressure on industrial production for domestic use. Overall, industrial growth should remain subdued in the first half of the year, with a possible pickup in the second half, supported by Germany's infrastructure plan – provided it delivers.

We forecast GDP growth of 0.9% in 2026, following 0.8% in 2025.

Source: ING

Gold prices held close to 4,200 USD per ounce on Friday, with investors focused on a significant, delayed inflation report ahead of next week's Federal Reserve policy decision.

All attention is on the release of the September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. The data could be decisive in shaping expectations for the timing and scale of upcoming monetary easing.

Earlier in the week, further signs of a cooling labour market emerged. ADP reported an unexpected decline of 32,000 in private sector payrolls, while the Challenger report recorded 71,000 layoffs in November – bringing the year-to-date total to nearly 1.17 million.

This combination of soft employment figures has reinforced investor conviction that the Fed will cut rates as early as next week, with the market-implied probability now standing at approximately 87%.

Adding to the dovish narrative are reports that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett may succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair in May. Markets interpret this as a potential tilt towards more aggressive policy easing.

Despite a moderately lower weekly close, gold remains well-supported heading into the critical data release.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating after its recent advance toward 4,220–4,230 USD. The price remains above the middle Bollinger Band, with the upper band turning slightly upward, suggesting an attempt to recover from recent weakness.

Key resistance is around 4,265 USD, a level the market has repeatedly tested without securing a decisive breakout. A sustained move above this level would clear the path towards 4,300 USD and beyond.

Immediate support is marked at 4,163 USD. A break below this level would increase selling pressure and raise the risk of a decline towards the next demand zone near 4,136 USD. A close below 4,136 USD would signal a transition into a deeper corrective phase.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, XAU/USD is trading within a tightening range between 4,188 USD and 4,220 USD, reflecting mixed short-term momentum. The middle Bollinger Band is providing near-term equilibrium, confirming the absence of a clear directional bias.

The upper Bollinger Band is capping advances near 4,220–4,225 USD, with several rejections from this zone indicating local overbought conditions. The lower band is offering support around 4,185–4,190 USD.

A sustained move above 4,220 USD would signal a resumption of bullish momentum, initially targeting 4,235–4,240 USD, and potentially 4,265 USD. Conversely, a break below 4,185 USD would open the way towards 4,163 USD. A loss of this support could intensify corrective pressure and expose the 4,136 USD level.

Conclusion

Gold remains in a holding pattern near 4,200 USD as traders await the delayed PCE inflation report. While labour market softness has bolstered expectations for Fed easing, the technical picture reflects consolidation within a defined range. A decisive reaction to today's data is likely to set the tone ahead of next week's FOMC meeting, with a break above 4,265 USD opening the door to further gains, while a drop below 4,163 USD risks a deeper correction.

Source: ACTIONFOREX

The ADX indicator on the 4-hour XAU/USD chart has dropped to a multi-month low, signalling the absence of a clear trend.

At the same time, a technical assessment of price movements allows for the construction of a symmetrical triangle pattern with a central axis around $4,205 — indicating that the current price reflects an equal balance of major drivers, including:

→ Weakening conditions in the US labour market. According to media reports, ADP recorded an unexpected decline of 32,000 private-sector jobs, while Challenger reported 71,000 layoffs in November, bringing the total number of job cuts since the start of the year close to 1.17 million.

→ Rumours that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett may replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in May — a development that has strengthened expectations of more aggressive policy easing in 2026.

It is worth noting that on 1 December, gold briefly rose above the November high — a move that coincided with silver reaching an all-time record (as suggested in our analysis on 27 November). However, the bulls failed to hold the price above $4,245, indicating a lack of sufficient buying interest. It appears that traders require stronger justification to purchase gold at such elevated levels.

Most likely, market participants have adopted a wait-and-see stance ahead of key releases:
→ Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data for September, whose publication was delayed by the shutdown;
→ Next week's FOMC decision (10 December).

Although the market currently appears balanced, XAU/USD may be functioning like a "compressed spring". Be prepared for bursts of volatility.

Source: FXOpen

Market Opens with Modest Gains as Fed Signals Drive Sentiment

Inflation Data and U.S. Labor Market Trends Underpin Policy Bets

Geopolitical Risk from Ukraine War Continues to Hover Over Markets

Mixed Signals in Corporate Headlines Add to Market Texture

Upcoming European Economic Data Will Shape Regional Outlook

Source: CNBC