S&P 500: Will Strong Earnings From Big Tech Keep Outweighing Trade Risks?

Stocks

Summary:

S&P 500 hits record highs as strong Big Tech earnings offset trade tensions and Fed uncertainty. Markets eye Apple, Amazon results, tariff fallout, and inflation data amid fading hopes for a September rate cut.

US equity futures surged, lifted by blockbuster results from Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Meta (NASDAQ:META), as the tech giants reinforced investor optimism around artificial intelligence. Microsoft soared more than 8%, while Meta climbed 12%, both posting results well ahead of expectations and signalling continued aggressive investment in AI infrastructure.

With more tech earnings to come today, sandwiched between key economic releases, and not to mention the August 1 tariffs deadline looming tomorrow, markets will face heightened volatility in the next day and a half.

Before discussing the macro factors further and what to watch, let’s quickly turn our gaze to the charts first.

S&P 500 Continues To Make New Highs

With the S&P 500 futures at new record levels, the bullish trend is continuing for now, meaning dip-buying remains the preferred trading strategy until we see a change in the market structure of higher highs and higher lows.

S&P 500: Will Strong Earnings From Big Tech Keep Outweighing Trade Risks?_1

Short-term support now comes in at 6,435, marking the high from Wednesday, followed by the day’s close at 6,396, before those earnings caused the S&P 500 futures to gap. Below these levels, 6,333 is another important support level that needs to hold. As well as prior resistance, the 21-day average comes into play here, too. Only if we go below this level can we then talk about the possibility of a deeper pullback towards the old records set earlier this year, around the 6,150-6,166 area.

On the upside, there are clear blue skies, and it is anyone’s guess where the next resistance will come. Still, it is important to keep an eye on round handles like 6,500.

Meanwhile, keep an eye on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which continues to trade at overbought levels of above 70. It will need to unwind through price action (i.e., a sell-off) or time (i.e., consolidation). The latter would be a bullish outcome, the former bearish.

Big Tech Keeps Rallying Going For Now

The S&P 500 futures rose by 1%, but let’s see if the gains can hold heading deeper into the week. Markets are currently being pulled in two directions: on one hand, a powerful earnings season led by tech is providing real momentum for equities.

On the other hand, ongoing trade tensions and central bank policy ambiguity are acting as counterweights. For now, investors are choosing to focus on the former — but the balance remains fragile. Much will hinge on the next data prints and whether Trump’s tariff barrage finds traction in the real economy.

Microsoft’s performance now puts it within striking distance of a $4 trillion market capitalisation – if it can hold onto some of those pre-market gains into the cash open.

Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) are next in line, with results due later after the close today. Markets will be watching closely to see if the momentum continues in the AI trade and whether the rest of the Magnificent Seven will deliver this quarter. So far, they’ve not disappointed.

So, it is the big rally in Big Tech which is helping to keep the S&P 500 rally going for now, with investors growing worried about the impact on inflation of Trump’s tariffs. This has also worried the Fed, raising uncertainty over the path of interest rates.

Tariffs: Trump Ups the Ante

On the trade front, tensions have escalated after President Trump announced a 15% tariff on South Korean imports, matching measures previously levied on Japan, alongside a demand for $350 billion in US-bound investment from Seoul. India has also been targeted, facing a 25% levy, with Washington citing its continued purchases of Russian oil and defence equipment. However, spared the most traded forms of copper while slapping others with duties of up to 50%.

These moves come ahead of the August 1 deadline set by the White House, with countries lacking bilateral trade agreements facing potential blanket tariffs ranging from 15% to 50%. Trump’s gambit, aimed at reshaping global trade and bringing manufacturing back onshore, has so far not caused a major, long-lasting drop in markets, beyond that swoon in early April. With indices now at record levels, Trump appears to win the market’s vote of confidence with his trade tactics.

September Rate Cut No Longer A Sure Thing

Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a hawkish hold, emphasising that no decision has yet been made regarding a September policy cut. While two Fed officials — Bowman and Waller — dissented in favour of a cut, Powell remained steadfast in his view that inflation risks remain present, and that a modestly restrictive stance is still warranted.

Expectations that inflation could take a boost from tariffs in the coming months have helped to support bond yields and the US dollar. In reaction to Powell’s hawkish press conference, markets quickly adjusted expectations, with pricing for a September rate cut slipping from 16 basis points to just 11. Powell’s remarks placed him squarely at odds with the White House, with Trump continuing to demand multiple rate cuts.

The hawkish repricing of the Fed’s policy has also been bolstered by strong GDP data and expectations that core inflation may remain sticky. Traders are now focused on upcoming economic prints — particularly today’s core PCE numbers and Friday’s jobs data — which could further influence rate expectations.

Source: investing

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Commodity

Silver prices have fallen around 4.5% over the last two trading days as a resurgent US Dollar and weaker haven flows weigh on prices.

The US Dollar remains strong, and rising US bond yields are limiting any chance of recovery for now. The Dollar’s strength is driven by hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, along with strong US GDP and job data. These factors support the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on monetary policy and reduce expectations for rate cuts in the near future.

Now Silver's extended rally this year was down to a combination of factors. Those include safe haven demand, a weak US Dollar and supply demand discrepancies.

Now if haven demand remains low and the US Dollar rally continues, how deep could the pullback in silver prices be? For the record, the discrepancy between supply and demand remains in play and is highly unlikely to change anytime soon.

With that in mind and only one of the three main causes of the silver rally still present, what could the potential downside for silver be?

Technical Analysis - Silver (XAG/USD)

From a technical standpoint, Silver has peaked at 39.52 before falling. A brief attempt at a recovery on Monday and Tuesday has faded away thanks to Fed Chair Powell's comments yesterday.

A daily candle closed yesterday below the ascending trendline with further losses today.

The RSI period-14 on the daily chart has crossed below the 50 neutral level but remains some way off oversold conditions.

This means that further downside toward the 100-day MA at 34.60 could materialize.

Silver (XAG/USD) Daily Chart, July 31, 2025

Silver (XAG/USD) Price: Down 1.5% as Trendline Break Hints at Deeper Correction_1

Dropping down to the four-hour chart and the picture changes slightly.

The period-14 RSI is deep in oversold territory with a potential short-term pullback a real possibility.

Looking toward the upside, resistance is provided by the 200-day MA at 37.24 and the 100-day MA at 38.09.

A four-hour candle close above the 38.22 handle would invalidate a potential bearish setup in the near-term.

Silver (XAG/USD) Four-Hour Chart, July 31, 2025

Source: marketpulse

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Olivia Brooks

Economic

The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased marginally last week, suggesting that the labour market remained stable, though it is taking longer for laid-off workers to find new opportunities.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 218,000 for the week ended July 26, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 224,000 claims for the latest week.

The labour market has slowed, with economists saying uncertainty over where President Donald Trump's tariff levels will eventually settle has left businesses wary of adding headcount. But labour supply has also declined amid the White House's immigration crackdown.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday left its benchmark interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range, resisting pressure from President Donald Trump to lower borrowing costs. Fed chair Jerome Powell told reporters the labour market was in balance. But he added because that was partly due to both demand and supply declining, "we do see downside risk in the labour market."

The central bank cut rates three times in 2024, with the last move coming in December. Most economists expect it to resume policy easing in September.

Employers' hesitancy to increase hiring means there are fewer jobs for those being laid off. Government data on Tuesday showed there were 1.06 job openings for every unemployed person in June compared to 1.33 in January.

The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, were unchanged at a seasonally adjusted 1.946 million during the week ending July 19, the claims report showed.

The claims data has no bearing on July's employment report, due on Friday as it falls outside the survey period. Non-farm payrolls likely increased by 110,000 jobs last month after rising 147,000 in June, a Reuters survey of economists showed.

The unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 4.2% from 4.1% in June.

Source: Theedgemarkets

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Commodity

Gold prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading today, on some mild bargain hunting following recent selling pressure. Silver prices are sharply down and hit a four-week low, with weak long liquidation featured in the futures market. December gold was last up $5.30 at $3,358.60. September silver prices were last down $1.059 at $36.68.

It would not be surprising if strong selling pressure in silver futures is at least partly due to sympathy selling amid the big copper market meltdown seen the past two days. President Trump surprised the copper futures market with new tariff rules on copper imports, which dropped copper futures prices sharply lower. Broker SP Angel said in an email dispatch today: “Blood on the street (in copper futures) as Trump exempts refined copper from the 50% tariff he mentioned a while ago, with no immediate tariffs on copper or copper products.” Copper futures in the U.S. fell up to 6% overnight, extending the record 18% plunge Wednesday after Trump excluded refined copper from the tariff package that will start on Friday.

Asian and European stocks were mixed to higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to higher openings when the New York day session begins, and at record highs.

In overnight news, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell shrugged off pressure from the White House and rejected arguments for an interest-rate cut from two dissenting Fed officials, saying the U.S. central bank needs to stay on guard against any problematic inflation. The Federal Open Market Committee voted to hold interest rates steady for a fifth consecutive meeting. However, this week’s meeting saw the first double dissent from Fed governors in more than 30 years. During his press conference, Powell said the Fed is well-positioned for now, given uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs and their economic impact. His comments were balanced, tempering expectations for a September rate cut, but not ruling out a cut at that time. Markets showed no major reactions to the FOMC/Powell news.

The Bloomberg Asia dollar spot index, which tracks the performance of a basket of leading Asian currencies versus the U.S. dollar, fell as much as 0.2% in early trading Thursday, to the lowest level since May 19. The Philippine peso led declines. The Indian rupee hovered near record lows. Regional currencies were set for their biggest monthly loss this year as the U.S. dollar has surged recently, including after the Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady Wednesday. Expectations for a September U.S. rate cut have also eased following recent upbeat U.S. economic data. Central banks across Asia have stepped up currency market intervention efforts to stabilize their own currencies. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority stepped in to buy HK$3.925 billion to defend its currency peg, while Indonesia’s central bank intervened in the foreign-exchange markets. The People’s Bank of China set a stronger-than-expected fixing to support the yuan.

Gold buying by central banks and jewelers eased in the second quarter amid the recent record high prices for the yellow metal. Central banks bought 166.5 tons in the three-month period, one-third less than in the first quarter, bringing purchases for the first half of the year to the lowest since 2022, according to the World Gold Council. Central bank demand is now forecast at about 815 tons for 2025.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil futures are weaker and trading around $69.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently at 4.35%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, personal income and outlays, the employment cost index, and the Chicago ISM business survey.

Gold price slightly up as mild bargain buying featured_1

Technically, December gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the July high of $3,509.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $3,300.00. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $3,389.30 and then at $3,400.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $3,319.20 and then at the June low of $3,307.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

Gold price slightly up as mild bargain buying featured_2

September silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading fast. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $38.51. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $35.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $37.285 and then at $38.00. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $36.28 and then at $36.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

Source:kitco

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Thomas

Economic

U.S. inflation increased in June as tariffs boosted prices for imported goods like household furniture and recreation products, supporting views that price pressures would pick up in the second half of the year and delay the Federal Reserve from resuming cutting interest rates until at least October.

The report from the Commerce Department on Thursday showed goods prices last month posting their biggest gain since January, with also solid rises in the costs of clothing and footwear. The U.S. central bank on Wednesday left its benchmark interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments after the decision undercut confidence the central bank would resume policy easing in September as had been widely anticipated by financial markets and some economists."The Fed is unlikely to welcome the inflation dynamics currently taking hold. Rather than converging toward target, inflation is now clearly diverging from it," said Olu Sonola, head of U.S. economic research, Fitch Ratings. "This trajectory is likely to complicate current expectations for a rate cut in September or October."

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.3% last month after an upwardly revised 0.2% gain in May, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PCE price index climbing 0.3% following a previously reported 0.1% rise in May.

Prices for furnishings and durable household equipment jumped 1.3%, the biggest gain since March 2022, after increasing 0.6% in May. Recreational goods and vehicles prices shot up 0.9%, the most since February 2024, after being unchanged in May. Prices for clothing and footwear rose 0.4%.

Outside the tariff-sensitive goods, prices for gasoline and other energy products rebounded 0.9% after falling for four consecutive months. Services prices rose 0.2% for a fourth straight month. In the 12 months through June, the PCE price index advanced 2.6% after increasing 2.4% in May.

The data was included in the advance gross domestic product report for the second quarter published on Wednesday, which showed inflation cooling, though remaining above the Fed's 2% target. Economists said businesses were still selling inventory accumulated before President Donald Trump's sweeping import duties came into effect.

They expected a broad increase in goods prices in the second half. Procter & Gamble (PG.N), opens new tab said this week it would raise prices on some products in the U.S. to offset tariff costs.

The U.S. central bank tracks the PCE price measures for monetary policy. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index increased 0.3% last month after rising 0.2% in May. In addition to higher goods prices, the so-called core PCE inflation was lifted by rising costs for healthcare as well as financial services and insurance.

In the 12 months through June, core inflation advanced 2.8% after rising by the same margin in May.

U.S. stocks opened higher. The dollar was trading higher against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury yields fell.

CONSUMER SPENDING STEADY

The BEA also reported that consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity, rose 0.3% in June after being unchanged in May. The data was also included in the advance GDP report, which showed consumer spending growing at a 1.4% annualized rate after almost stalling in the first quarter.

In the second quarter, economic growth rebounded at a 3.0% rate, boosted by a sharp reduction in the trade deficit because of fewer imports relative to the record surge in the January-March quarter. The economy contracted at a 0.5% pace in the first three months of the year.

Consumer spending remains supported by a stable labor market, with other data from the Labor Department showing initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 218,000 for the week ended July 26.

But a reluctance by employers to increase headcount amid uncertainty over where tariff levels will eventually settle is making it harder for those who lose their jobs to find new opportunities, which could hamper future spending.

The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, was unchanged at a lofty seasonally adjusted 1.946 million during the week ending July 19, the claims report showed.

The government's closely watched employment report on Friday is expected to show the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% in July from 4.1% in June, according to a Reuters survey of economists.

Economists expect the combination of pressure from tariffs and a slowing labor market will put a brake on consumer spending in the third quarter. Slow growth is likely already in the works as inflation-adjusted consumer spending edged up 0.1% in June after declining 0.2% in May. Precautionary saving could also curb spending. The saving rate was unchanged at 4.5% in June, while personal income re

"The June numbers and revisions to previous data set the economy up for fairly weak consumer spending in the third quarter," said Oren Klachkin, financial markets economist at Nationwide. "With wage growth staying contained, we expect the consumer will continue to look for discounts through the rest of the year."Reporting by Lucia Mutikani, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Andrea Ricci

Source: Kitco

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Winkelmann

Economic

Political

President Donald Trump said the U.S. would charge a 15% tariff on imports from South Korea, one of a number of such measures announced in the run-up to his August 1 deadline to impose such levies.He also signed an executive order imposing a 40% tariff on Brazilian exports, bringing the country's total tariff amount to 50%, but with a number of notable exemptions.He has also threatened to impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from India starting on August 1.

Following are key developments:

SOUTH KOREA:

Trump said the U.S. will charge a 15% tariff on imports from South Korea, including autos, as part of a trade deal.He also said South Korea would accept American products, including autos and agriculture into its markets and impose no import duties on them.The U.S. agreed that South Korean firms would not be put at a disadvantage compared with other countries over upcoming tariffs on chips and pharmaceutical products, while retaining 50% tariffs on steel and aluminium.

INVESTMENTS:

Trump said South Korea would invest $350 billion in the United States in projects "owned and controlled by the United States" and selected by Trump.South Korea said $150 billion has been earmarked for shipbuilding cooperation, while investments in chips, batteries, biotechnology and nuclear energy cooperation accounted for the remaining $200 billion.Trump said South Korea would purchase $100 billion worth of liquefied natural gas or other energy products, which the Asian country said would mean a slight shift in energy imports from the Middle East in the next four years.

BRAZIL:

Trump slapped a 50% tariff on most Brazilian goods to fight what he has called a "witch hunt" against former President Jair Bolsonaro, but softened the blow by excluding sectors such as aircraft, energy and orange juice from heavier levies.The new tariffs are due to take effect on August 6 in the case of Brazil.General exemptions also apply to donations intended to relieve human suffering such as food, clothing, medicine, as well as publications, films, music and artworks.

INDIA:

Trump said on Wednesday the United States is still negotiating with India on trade after announcing earlier in the day the U.S. would impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from the country starting on Friday.India has resisted U.S. demands to open its agricultural and dairy markets, saying such moves would hurt millions of poor farmers. New Delhi has historically excluded agriculture from free trade pacts to protect domestic livelihoods.According to a White House fact sheet, India imposes an average MFN (Most Favoured Nation) tariff of 39% on imported farm goods, compared to 5% in the U.S., with some duties as high as 50%.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Adam

Stocks

Tech Beats and Healthcare Strength Fuel Premarket Rally as Traders Watch Fed and Inflation Risks

U.S. equity futures pushed higher Thursday morning following a string of strong earnings reports from heavyweight tech firms and major consumer companies. S&P 500 futures gained 0.9%, Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1.26%, and Dow futures added 0.2%, bolstered by sharp moves in Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and several names across healthcare, telecom, and cruise lines.

How Did Meta and Microsoft Earnings Shift Market Sentiment?

Daily Microsoft Corp.msftMM

Microsoft

surged nearly 9% in premarket trading after fiscal Q4 earnings of $3.65 per share and revenue of $76.44 billion, both topping estimates. Azure cloud revenue strength and sustained AI demand helped lift investor confidence, putting Microsoft in striking distance of a $4 trillion market cap.

Daily Meta Platforms, Inc

Meta jumped nearly 12% following Q2 results and a strong Q3 sales forecast of $47.5 to $50.5 billion, above consensus. These results, along with upcoming reports from Apple and Amazon, are helping power Nasdaq futures higher despite recent Fed-related headwinds.

Are Other Corporate Earnings Supporting the Broader Rally?

Several non-tech firms also boosted sentiment. CVS Health climbed 7% after raising its full-year EPS outlook to $6.30–$6.40, up from prior guidance. Comcast rose 6% on stronger-than-expected earnings of $1.25 per share. Norwegian Cruise Line rallied 12% as it reiterated full-year guidance despite revenue slightly missing forecasts.

Elsewhere, CoreWeave added 13% following an upgrade tied to its Microsoft exposure, and Carvana surged 18% after beating both top and bottom-line expectations. Biogen jumped 6% on a strong Q2 beat, while eBay popped 12% after an upbeat outlook.

How Is Inflation Data Shaping Rate Expectations?

Traders also assessed June’s PCE inflation data, which slightly exceeded forecasts. Headline PCE rose 2.6% year over year, while core PCE climbed 2.8%, both 0.1 percentage point above estimates. Personal income rose 0.3%, while spending came in slightly below forecasts at 0.3%. Despite steady monthly growth, inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target.

Following Wednesday’s FOMC decision to hold rates steady, internal dissent from Fed governors Bowman and Waller highlighted lingering uncertainty. While Powell emphasized no decisions for September have been made, persistent inflation may limit the central bank’s flexibility.

What Should Traders Expect Going Forward?

While strong tech earnings are lifting equities in early trade, the market’s elevated valuations and hotter-than-expected inflation suggest gains may face resistance.

Traders will focus on earnings from Apple and Amazon later today, along with labor data due Friday. Continued upside depends on whether corporate strength can offset macroeconomic pressures tied to Fed policy and pricing trends.

Caution remains warranted as inflation and interest rate outlooks remain unresolved.