Singaporean Court Upholds Opposition Leader’s Conviction For Lying To Parliament

Political

Economic

Summary:

Singapore's High Court yesterday upheld the conviction of opposition leader Pritam Singh for lying to a parliamentary committee, in connection with a case involving a former lawmaker from his party.

In February, the leader of the Workers' Party, the only opposition party with seats in Singapore's Parliament, was convicted on two counts of lying to a parliamentary committee under oath and was fined S$7,000 (around $5,400) for each count.

The charges were related to Singh's handling of a scandal involving Raeesah Khan, a former Workers' Party MP, who admitted that she had repeatedly lied to Parliament in August 2021 about alleged police mistreatment of a victim of sexual assault. During a parliamentary committee investigation, she claimed that the party's leaders, including Singh, had told her to "continue with the narrative," despite knowing about the lie.

Khan was fined S$35,000 for lying and abusing her parliamentary privilege, and subsequently resigned from the party and from Parliament. The committee later concluded that Singh had not been truthful to the committee and recommended a criminal investigation into his conduct. Prosecutors agreed, and in March 2024, charged him with making two false statements during the committee's proceedings.

During yesterday's hearing, Justice Steven Chong said the lower court judge's decision to convict Singh on both charges was sound and supported by the evidence, despite quibbling with some small elements of the case, Channel News Asia reported.

After the hearing, Singh, 49, told the press that he was "disappointed" with the decision but accepted it "fully and without reservation," the BBC reported. He said he took responsibility for taking "too long" to respond to Khan's lie, but that he remains committed to working for the betterment of all Singaporeans. Singh also paid his fines at the courthouse after the hearing.

In a statement posted on Facebook after the verdict, the Workers' Party said that it was "studying the Court's verdict and grounds of decision," noting that it has "weathered many challenges over the years."

"Our commitment to serving the people of Singapore remains unwavering," it added. "We are deeply grateful to everyone who has stood with us, in moments of progress and through difficult times."

Despite his conviction in February, Singh was allowed his seat in Parliament and led the Workers' Party into a general election in May, during which it increased its share of the vote to 14.99 percent (up from 11.22 percent in 2020), and increased its share of parliamentary seats from 10 to 12. However, the party largely failed to make headway outside its existing strongholds of support, and its increased vote share was largely cannibalized from other opposition parties.

Source: The Diplomat

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Gerik

Economic

Transportation Stocks Surge, Signaling Strength Beneath the Surface

A wave of optimism swept across the U.S. equity landscape this week as the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT) posted a rare nine-session winning streak, breaking decisively above a key resistance level that has previously capped gains. This development, seen only five times this century, is being closely watched by analysts who adhere to the Dow Theory a framework that emphasizes the need for transportation and industrial stocks to confirm each other’s trends for a rally to be deemed sustainable.

This alignment of indices suggests a causal relationship between production output and logistical capacity. According to the theory, rising transportation stocks mean goods are not only being manufactured but also efficiently delivered, reflecting deeper economic vitality rather than just market speculation.

Confirmation Across Dow Indices: A Classic Bullish Signal

Mark Malek, Chief Investment Officer at Siebert Financial, articulates the essence of this view: when the Dow Jones Industrial Average moves upward and is mirrored by gains in the transportation index, it reflects economic reality reinforcing investor optimism. The simultaneous rise acts as a confirmation that economic activity both in terms of output and distribution is expanding, providing a foundational rationale for continued equity growth.

This pattern of confirmation holds particular weight in a market where investors are increasingly looking for signs that recent rallies are supported by real-world fundamentals rather than narrow sector-driven momentum.

Rotation from Tech to Cyclical Names Marks a Structural Shift

The strength in transportation stocks is also being interpreted as part of a broader sectoral rotation within the market. Companies like Expeditors International, Southwest Airlines, and Delta Air Lines gained over 10% last month, indicating renewed investor confidence in cyclical, economically sensitive sectors. In contrast, high-performing tech firms such as Nvidia saw losses of around 13% over the same period.

This trend highlights a potential causality: as investors shift capital away from high-growth, interest rate-sensitive tech names and into sectors more directly tied to real economic performance, it suggests expectations of a more balanced and broad-based market rally.

Joe Gilbert of Integrity Asset Management notes that this move has significant implications for the equal-weighted S&P 500, suggesting a diversification of leadership and a more resilient rally structure. The underperformance of AI-driven names and the resurgence of transport stocks reflect shifting investor preferences amid expectations of Federal Reserve rate adjustments.

Policy Outlook and Regulatory Pressures Enhance Market Dynamics

The current rally comes ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting where a rate cut is widely anticipated. Lower borrowing costs typically support equities by reducing discount rates and encouraging investment. This aligns with the uptick in transportation and industrial names, which benefit from easing financial conditions and increased consumer demand.

Beyond macro policy, industry-specific regulatory changes are also influencing the logistics sector. New rules surrounding commercial driver licenses and English-language proficiency requirements are expected to reduce the pool of eligible truck drivers in the U.S. While this presents a supply-side constraint, it is expected to drive freight rates higher over time, potentially boosting revenues for transportation companies.

Lee Klaskow of Bloomberg Intelligence highlights this structural tightening in trucking capacity as a factor that may lend further support to the sector. Though not an immediate causal driver, the relationship is one of anticipated constraint leading to pricing power, which in turn may enhance margins for logistics firms.

A Market Broadening in Motion

According to Michael Kantrowitz of Piper Sandler, the outperformance of transportation stocks marks a pivotal shift after three years of relative underperformance during a bifurcated economy dominated by tech and defensive names. This resurgence suggests that economic breadth is returning to the market, and that leadership is expanding beyond a narrow group of mega-cap growth stocks.

If the Dow Theory signal holds, it implies that the current market rally is more than just a sentiment-driven surge it reflects real economic improvement and functional supply chains. With Fed policy set to ease and investor interest shifting toward more fundamentally grounded sectors, the coming weeks may offer further evidence of whether this confirmation leads to a more inclusive and enduring bull market.

Source: Bloomberg

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Michelle

Economic

Chicago soybean futures edged down on Friday and were set for a first weekly loss in eight amid uncertainty over the scale of Chinese demand for U.S. supplies under a bilateral trade truce.

Wheat and corn also eased, with ample global grain supply tempering support from brisk U.S. corn exports.

Grain markets were turning their attention to a U.S. Department of Agriculture supply and demand report next Tuesday, while investors were also watching for a U.S. inflation reading later on Friday to gauge prospects for an interest rate cut next week.

The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)was down 0.3% at $11.16-1/2 a bushel by 1011 GMT.

The USDA on Thursday reported 1,248,500 tons of net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the week ended October 30, including 232,000 tons to China, the country's first purchases from the 2025 U.S. harvest. (EXP/SOY)

However, overall purchases remain well below the 12-million-metric-ton target referred to by senior U.S. officials, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week appeared to push back the deadline for the target to end-February from end-December.

"A few days before the USDA's monthly report, Chinese import potential will be closely monitored, knowing that Brazilian exports have so far largely covered the country's needs," Argus Media analysts said in a note.

In cereals, CBOT wheatfell 0.5% to $5.37-1/2 a bushel while CBOT corndipped 0.3% to $4.46 a bushel.

On Thursday, Statistics Canada reported the country's total wheat production at nearly 40 million tons, surpassing market expectations.

"The big news was the StatsCan data, which placed wheat and canola both at record highs. This continues the narrative of strong global supply," said Andrew Whitelaw, an analyst at Australian consultant Episode 3.

The United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization, meanwhile, on Friday increased its forecast of world cereal production and stocks this season to record highs.

Chicago corn nonetheless remained near a six-month peak struck at the start of the week, supported by brisk exports and concern over cold weather hampering transport of U.S. grain.

Prices at 1011 GMT
	Last	Change	Pct Move
CBOT wheat	537.50	-2.75	-0.51
CBOT corn	446.00	-1.25	-0.28
CBOT soy	1116.50	-3.00	-0.27
Paris wheat (BL2c1)	193.50	1.00	0.52
Paris maize (EMAc1)	187.25	0.25	0.13
Paris rapeseed (COMc1)	475.75	1.25	0.26
WTI crude oil	59.68	0.01	0.02
Euro/dlr	1.17	0.00	0.09
Most active contracts - Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel, Paris futures in euros per metric ton

Source: TradingView

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Gerik

Economic

Foreign Relocation Rises as Swiss Companies Adapt to Tariff Environment

In response to recent U.S. trade policy adjustments, a growing number of Swiss companies are actively relocating operations and boosting foreign investments to mitigate the impact of tariffs, according to a new survey by the business association economiesuisse. The findings highlight that while the recent U.S.-Switzerland deal has lowered tariffs from 39% to 15%, this shift has not significantly reduced companies’ intentions to diversify geographically. The actions signal an underlying strategic move to reduce vulnerability to future protectionist policies.

The economiesuisse survey, conducted with over 400 companies both before and after the tariff reduction agreement, revealed that approximately 25% of respondents have already identified concrete steps toward restructuring their international footprint. Nearly a third of these businesses indicated plans to increase investment outside Switzerland, particularly by shifting production and operational capacity abroad. This reflects a causal relationship between U.S. trade policy uncertainty and corporate restructuring strategies designed to preserve competitiveness.

Diversification Beyond U.S. and EU Markets Gains Momentum

Interestingly, while some firms are looking to the U.S. and European Union as relocation destinations 10% and 5%, respectively an even larger proportion (16%) plan to shift operations to countries beyond both regions. This indicates a strategic effort by Swiss businesses to establish footholds in alternative markets that may offer more stable or advantageous trade conditions. It also reflects an evolving global supply chain realignment, where companies no longer see traditional markets as the sole pillars of their international strategies.

Other planned responses include raising product prices to offset cost pressures or halting exports to the U.S. altogether. These options suggest a flexible but cautious approach to risk management, with a combination of hedging against cost volatility and avoiding overly dependent trade ties with a single dominant partner.

High-Skilled Job Concerns and R&D Retention in Switzerland

Although economiesuisse’s chief economist Rudolf Minsch emphasized that foreign investment is not necessarily damaging to Switzerland’s economic model, he highlighted the importance of retaining high-skilled labor and research and development activities domestically. This suggests a concern about the long-term implications of excessive offshoring, especially in sectors that drive innovation and technological leadership.

From a policy perspective, this presents a dilemma. While Switzerland has long maintained an open investment policy and a strong tradition of outbound capital flows, the prospect of talent and knowledge erosion could weaken domestic economic dynamism over time. The relationship here is more nuanced: while outbound investment secures global competitiveness (a correlation), it does not automatically translate into domestic job loss unless those investments fully replace in-country capabilities (a potential causation if not managed strategically).

Impact of $200 Billion U.S. Investment Commitment and Pharma Sector Risk

As part of its recent trade agreement, Switzerland pledged $200 billion in outbound investments to the U.S. economy a figure that raised eyebrows given Switzerland’s relatively small economic base. UBS warned that if the pharmaceutical sector, Switzerland’s largest exporter, were to fully relocate its U.S.-bound production abroad, the cumulative five-year GDP growth could decline from 10% to 7.7%. This projection reveals a direct causal risk: while short-term foreign investment may generate bilateral goodwill and trade access, the long-term effect on national output could be negative if critical export-generating activities are transferred abroad.

This potential shift in the pharmaceutical industry underscores the delicate balance Switzerland must strike between maintaining global trade relations and safeguarding domestic economic resilience. The GDP impact forecast by UBS is particularly telling it quantifies how sector-specific relocation can translate into broader macroeconomic consequences.

Strategic Investment or Structural Risk?

Swiss firms are clearly taking a proactive stance toward global uncertainty by reallocating capital and operations to mitigate tariff risk. While this reflects Switzerland’s long-standing global investment orientation, the magnitude and direction of the shift especially toward non-traditional markets suggest a deeper structural response rather than a temporary adjustment.

The challenge for Swiss policymakers and business leaders lies in ensuring that global expansion does not come at the expense of national innovation capacity or long-term economic stability. As tariff-induced volatility becomes a recurring theme in international trade, the ability to preserve high-value jobs and R&D at home while maintaining global competitiveness will define Switzerland’s strategic success.

Source: Bloomberg

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Glendon

Political

Commodity

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Oil prices were steady on Friday, supported by stalled Ukraine peace talks, though gains were offset by expectations of a supply glut.

Brent crude was down 8 cents, or 0.1%, to $63.18 per barrel by 1032 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate dipped 14 cents, or 0.2%, to $59.53 a barrel.

For the week, Brent was largely stable and WTI was on track to log a gain of about 1.7%, marking a second straight weekly increase.

"It is quite flat today and this week had a narrow trading range," said Tamas Vargas, an oil market analyst at PVM. "The lack of progress in the Ukrainian peace talks provides a bullish backdrop but on the other hand, resilient OPEC production provides a bearish backstop. These two opposing forces make trading seemingly quiet."

The market is also assessing the impact of a possible U.S. Fed rate cut and tensions with Venezuela, both of which could boost oil prices, analysts said.

Of economists surveyed in a November 28 to December 4 Reuters poll, 82% expected a 25-basis-point interest rate reduction at next week's Federal Reserve policy meeting. A rate cut would stimulate economic growth and energy demand.

"Looking ahead, supply factors remain in focus. A peace deal with Russia would bring more barrels to the market and likely push prices down," said Anh Pham, a senior research specialist at LSEG.

"On the other hand, any geopolitical escalation will drive prices higher. OPEC+ has agreed to keep production steady until early next year, so it adds some support for prices too," he said.

Markets also continued to brace for a potential U.S. military incursion into Venezuela after President Donald Trump said late last week the U.S. would start taking action to stop Venezuelan drug traffickers on land "very soon".

Rystad Energy said in a note that such a move could put at risk Venezuela's 1.1 million barrels per day of crude oil production, which goes mostly to China.

Prices were also boosted this week by the failure of U.S. talks in Moscow to achieve any significant breakthrough over the war in Ukraine, which could have included a deal to let Russian oil back into the market.

Those factors kept prices supported despite a growing surplus.

Saudi Arabia cut its January Arab Light crude selling prices to Asia to the lowest level in five years amid oversupply, according to a document reviewed by Reuters on Thursday.

Source: Reuters

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Samantha Luan

Political

Economic

Taxing expensive homes to raise less than 0.1% of total government receipts is hardly a fiscal revolution. But the modest beginnings of Britain's proposed mansion tax shouldn't obscure its potential significance. History and international experience suggest the high-value council tax surcharge is likely to become bigger and broader in scope as time goes on. A shiny new dial has been created on the fiscal dashboard; the temptation to turn it will be hard to resist.

UK property taxes may start out temporary and small, but they tend to stay and grow. Stamp duty, for instance, began in 1694 as a levy to finance one of Britain's frequent wars with France. Originally, it was a paperwork fee, with documents requiring a physical stamp to be recognized as legally valid. Parliament expected it to last four years. It's now in its fourth century. In the 2024-25 financial year, stamp duty on residential property transactions netted more than £10 billion ($13 billion), or more than 25 times as much as the estimated revenue from the mansion tax.

Even three decades ago, stamp duty was still largely a symbolic tax — levied at 1% and only on houses changing hands for more than £250,000. Given the average UK property price was about £55,000 at the time, only a small fraction of purchases were liable. Tony Blair's Labour government created the modern system with a 2003 overhaul that made it easier to raise rates, change thresholds and add surcharges (adding "land tax" to the name recognized that it was a transaction levy rather than an administration fee). In 2014, Conservative Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne increased the top rate to 12% on properties valued at more than £1.5 million, where it remains.

Stamp duty became a bigger contributor to government revenue despite being almost universally disliked by economists, who regularly cite it as one of the UK's worst-designed taxes. Transaction levies distort behavior by deterring deals that would be mutually beneficial, harming labor mobility and dragging on productivity and economic growth. But when governments need to raise money, they turn to the levers they have.

And taxing property has some obvious advantages. For one thing, it's immobile and hard to hide — you can't sequester your Mayfair mansion in a Caribbean tax haven. While wealth taxes have frequently been rolled back, recurring levies based on property value have tended to survive and expand — Switzerland, Spain, Norway and Denmark being among the examples. France in 2018 abandoned its wealth tax and replaced it with the impôt sur la fortune immobilière, or IFI, which levies progressive rates on net taxable real estate wealth starting at €1.3 million, the equivalent of £1.1 million.

Before last week's budget, speculation suggested that the government was looking at targeting the two highest council-tax bands to raise as much as £4.2 billion. In the event, it set a much higher threshold of £2 million (affecting only the highest band) and will raise a mere £400 million. A broader mansion tax might still be the long-term direction of travel, though.

Minouche Shafik, Prime Minister Keir Starmer's chief economic adviser, wanted to see sweeping changes to property taxes but was blocked by political figures in Downing Street who feared there would be too many losers among England's middle classes, according to the Observer. Shafik, a former president of the London School of Economics, chaired an inquiry by the Resolution Foundation think tank that recommended implementing a proportional property tax, or PPT, a recurring charge based on a percentage of valuation that many economists see as more efficient than stamp duty or the existing system of council tax. Look at the implications and the political concern is easy to understand. The highest mansion tax surcharge, applying to homes valued at more than £5 million, will be £7,500. Under a PPT set at 0.5% (in the ballpark for most proposals) a £5 million house would pay £25,000.

There are practical reasons for starting small. The mansion tax will necessitate the first wave of official residential property revaluations in England in more than three decades. The Valuation Office Agency is already burdened with a backlog of challenges related to council tax bands and business rates. Once the administrative infrastructure has been built, it becomes easy to extend the tax's reach into a wider range of valuations. In the meantime, a narrower base limits the potential for backlash.

In fact, the political dynamics for a mansion tax are favorable — if jarring change can be avoided. It's a proposal with many winners and few losers (though these, problematically, are concentrated in London and the Southeast). The government framed the change as being about fairness, and it's an argument that resonates. A decades-long runup in property prices has created much intergenerational unfairness. Young people who don't have access to the Bank of Mum and Dad — and their accumulated windfall property gains — face a much more difficult task to get on the housing ladder. Meanwhile, slowing growth and fiscal pressures have helped fan global momentum for taxing property wealth.

That suggests that, once created, the levy will act like a ratchet — easy to ramp up but very hard to roll back. The limited scope of the mansion tax prompted understandable relief in the property market. The reprieve is unlikely to be permanent.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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ING

Forex

Economic

Momentum weakens

Manufacturing output in France edged down slightly in October, falling by 0.1% after a strong 0.9% increase in September. Across the broader industrial sector, production rose by 0.2% on the month, following a 0.7% gain in September. Sector performance was mixed: output in electrical, electronic, and IT equipment dropped sharply by 2.2%, while coke and refining surged by 3.6%, and most other sectors remained broadly stable.

Over the past three months, manufacturing output has been up 0.2% compared to the previous three-month period and 1.1% year-on-year. The picture is far bleaker in the construction sector, where output fell by 0.6% on the month and 1.4% over the year.

These figures paint a mixed picture of French industry. After a rebound since June, momentum appears to be fading, and business sentiment does not point to an imminent recovery. Production expectations among manufacturers declined in November, while order books contracted sharply. As a result, industrial output is likely to make a smaller contribution to GDP growth in the fourth quarter.

Military spending and uncertainty in 2026

Looking ahead to 2026, the outlook remains mixed. On the positive side, France should continue to benefit from rising global military spending. As the world's second-largest arms exporter, with defence accounting for nearly 5% of total industry, France is the European country most exposed to this trend. Between 2022 and 2025, defence-related production grew by more than 20%, while overall industrial output remained flat. Order books and sentiment in the defence sector remain strong, suggesting that military spending will continue to support industrial production and GDP growth.

On the downside, political and fiscal uncertainty is likely to weigh on domestic investment and moderate activity growth, putting pressure on industrial production for domestic use. Overall, industrial growth should remain subdued in the first half of the year, with a possible pickup in the second half, supported by Germany's infrastructure plan – provided it delivers.

We forecast GDP growth of 0.9% in 2026, following 0.8% in 2025.