Silver Price Soars, Experts Predict $44/ounce in 2025 Amid Growing Investment Interest

Commodity

Summary:

Silver prices are hitting new highs, with domestic prices in Vietnam rising sharply as demand surges. Experts forecast silver could surpass $44 per ounce in 2025, driven by factors such as the Fed’s rate cuts...

Silver's Market Boom and Price Forecasts

Silver is experiencing an unprecedented surge in both domestic and international markets, with prices reaching their highest levels in over a decade. On September 3, 2025, silver prices hit 43 million VND per kilogram in Vietnam, marking a near 42.5% increase since the start of the year. Internationally, silver traded at $40.7 per ounce, up 38% from the beginning of the year, and an impressive 45.6% compared to the same time last year. This surge is part of a broader rally that has captivated investors, particularly in Vietnam, where demand for silver bars and coins has skyrocketed.

The sharp increase in silver prices can be attributed to several key factors. Firstly, expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will lower interest rates have prompted investors to seek refuge in precious metals, including silver. Additionally, geopolitical tensions and the growing trend of "de-dollarization" are driving silver's appeal as a safe haven asset. Silver's increasing demand from industries such as solar energy, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence further bolsters its price trajectory.

Supply Constraints and Industrial Demand

Rhona O'Connell, head of market analysis at StoneX, points out that silver's strong demand from critical industries, such as solar energy and electric vehicles, is likely to create long-term upward pressure on prices. The supply of silver is struggling to keep pace with the increasing demand, making it a key driver of the metal's price growth. Despite recent price highs, O'Connell suggests silver may experience short-term adjustments but remains bullish in the long term, with sustained demand fueling further growth.

Nick Cawley from Solomon Global forecasts that silver could exceed $44 per ounce by the end of 2025, driven by a confluence of factors such as loose monetary policy, geopolitical uncertainties, and a shift away from U.S. bonds. He believes that silver will benefit from both its industrial demand and its role as a safe-haven asset, similar to gold. Cawley anticipates further price increases, with $50 per ounce being a possible target if buying momentum continues.

Christopher Lewis from FXEmpire also sees silver holding strong at $40 as a new support level, predicting a short-term rally towards $42 per ounce. He suggests that any price dips should be viewed as buying opportunities, rather than signals to sell.

Silver's Growing Popularity in Vietnam

In Vietnam, where gold has traditionally dominated as a popular investment asset, silver is emerging as a strong contender. With gold becoming increasingly scarce and stock markets showing volatility, many investors are turning to silver as a more accessible alternative. Silver is now seen as a "new version" of goldoffering both a safe-haven function and a connection to the green industrial revolution.

Silver is poised to continue its upward trajectory in 2025, driven by factors ranging from monetary policy shifts to strong industrial demand. With experts predicting further price increases, silver is becoming an attractive investment option not just in Vietnam but globally, positioning itself as a key asset for 2025 and beyond.

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Samantha Luan

Economic

Political

Forex

South Korea's pledge to invest $350 billion in strategic U.S. industries as part of a trade deal with Washington is likely to be led by state policy institutions that will provide funding on a case-by-case basis, the country's vice finance minister said.Under a trade deal struck in July to cap U.S. tariffs at 15%, the countries agreed to a financial package to support industries such as shipbuilding, key minerals, batteries, pharmaceuticals, chips and AI, although officials in Seoul have said details on implementing the plan still need to be hashed out.

"We basically look at the $350 billion as a limit so it won't be raised all at once, but rather we will be able to provide support tailored to situations that may arise," Lee Hyoung-il said on Wednesday in an interview with Reuters."We plan to prepare it (the package) through policy financial institutions basically," Lee said, declining to confirm whether policy lender Korea Development Bank would be orchestrating the operation.

"Nothing has been decided on the issue," an official at the KDB said.

State-run lenders such as the KDB provide policy financing and manage funds for public infrastructure and financial market stability.Lee's comments build on assurances from other top Seoul officials that the investment pledge is designed to support commercially viable U.S.-based projects on a capital-call basis as demand arises.The two sides have appeared at times to interpret the fund differently. A South Korean presidential adviser last month denied U.S. claims that Washington would take 90% of the profit from the $350 billion investments.

Turning to Wednesday's global bond rout, Lee downplayed concerns that South Korea's bond and foreign exchange markets could face instability due to jitters around debt sales and fiscal discipline.South Korea plans to issue a record amount of bonds next year to fund spending in sectors including AI, semiconductors, research and defence.Lee said authorities would continue to monitor foreign exchange markets and "act to stabilise markets if needed", while conducting talks with the U.S. Department of the Treasury on the dollar-won market.

He added the government will review whether the dollar-won trading hours can be further extended, as part of Seoul's push to be included in MSCI's developed market benchmarks.On the broader economy, Lee expects a recovery to accelerate next year when Asia's fourth-largest economy is forecast to grow 1.8%, around its potential growth rate, from a projected expansion of 0.9% this year.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Gerik

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U.S. Dollar Weakens Amid Soft Labor Market Data

The U.S. dollar slipped on Thursday as investors reacted to weaker-than-expected job openings data and continued concerns about the broader economic outlook. The data showed that job openings fell to a 10-month low in July, contributing to growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this month.

Traders are now pricing in a 97% chance of a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting, an increase from 89% a week ago, according to CME FedWatch. The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency against a basket of other major currencies, stood at 98.178, easing 0.17% from the previous day.

Fed Officials Emphasize Labor Market Concerns

Several Federal Reserve officials have stated that concerns about the labor market will continue to drive their decision-making in the coming months, particularly regarding rate cuts. James Knightley, ING’s chief international economist, stated that the Fed is likely to cut rates meaningfully, with no significant inflationary pressure coming from the jobs market. Knightley expects 25 basis point rate cuts at the Fed’s September, October, and December meetings.

Global bond markets have seen rising yields, particularly on long-term government bonds, as investors grow increasingly anxious about the fiscal health of major economies, including the U.S., Japan, and Britain. The yields on U.S. 30-year bonds reached 4.891%, just below the 5% mark seen earlier in the week, signaling concerns over the growing debt-to-GDP ratios in these economies.

Despite this, dovish comments from Fed officials and softer labor data have pushed Treasury yields lower, leading to a rally in U.S. bonds. The 30-year Japanese government bond yield stood at 3.27%, just shy of the record high seen in the previous session.

Focus on Fiscal Health and Political Pressures

Uday Patnaik, head of Asia fixed income at L&G, pointed out that many advanced economies are facing poor fiscal conditions, with rising debt-to-GDP ratios and no primary surplus to cover non-interest spending. To address these issues, significant cuts in government spending or additional revenue generation will be necessary, which could be politically and socially challenging.

The euro held steady at $1.1658, while the Australian dollar remained unchanged at $0.6545. The New Zealand dollar was also flat at $0.5881. Investor attention is now focused on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payrolls report and further developments in global fiscal and economic conditions.

The U.S. dollar weakened on Thursday as market participants focused on the soft labor market data, which bolstered expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. With rising global bond yields and concerns over fiscal health in major economies, traders are anticipating further monetary policy adjustments in the coming months. The outlook for the dollar remains closely tied to the Fed’s actions and broader economic trends.

Source: Reuters

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Gerik

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Commodity

OPEC+ Output Increase Speculation Pressures Prices

Oil prices continued their downward trend on Thursday, following a more than 2% drop in the previous session. Traders are closely monitoring the upcoming OPEC+ meeting this weekend, where producers are expected to discuss a potential increase in production targets.

Brent crude dropped 27 cents, or 0.4%, to $67.33 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined by 28 cents, or 0.44%, to $63.69 per barrel. The prospect of a further output hike by OPEC+ has pressured the market, as the group seeks to regain market share amid tightening global supply concerns.

OPEC+ Decision to Increase Output

OPEC+ members, including eight countries from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and their allies, are expected to consider raising production targets by another 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) for October. This follows a previous agreement to increase production from April to September, along with a 300,000 bpd quota hike for the United Arab Emirates.

Despite the production hikes, Middle Eastern oil prices have remained robust, which has bolstered confidence in further output increases. Analysts suggest that Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members are keen to continue boosting production to capitalize on the strong demand for their crude.

Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Price Futures Group, noted that the possibility of a production increase was unexpected by many traders, as they initially anticipated no changes from the group.

U.S. Crude Stockpile Data Adds to Bearish Sentiment

Market sentiment was further weighed down by the release of U.S. crude stockpile data. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a rise of 622,000 barrels in U.S. crude inventories for the week ending August 29, contrary to market expectations of a 2 million-barrel drawdown. The delay in the report due to the U.S. holiday on Monday added to the uncertainty surrounding supply and demand.

Government data on U.S. crude stockpiles is expected to be released later on Thursday, which may provide additional insights into inventory levels and the broader oil supply situation.

Oil prices are under pressure as traders brace for potential output hikes by OPEC+, with expectations of increased supply weighing on the market. Additionally, the unexpected rise in U.S. crude inventories has added to bearish sentiment, leading to further declines in oil prices. Market participants are now awaiting official U.S. stockpile data and the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting to assess the future direction of the oil market.

Source: Reuters

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Gerik

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Stocks

Investor Sentiment Lifted by Fed’s Dovish Signals

Asian stock markets edged higher on Thursday, buoyed by dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials who expressed support for rate cuts in the coming months. This helped calm investor concerns, particularly amid fears about global growth and a sell-off in bond markets. Australia's benchmark index rose 0.8%, recovering from a significant one-day loss, and Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 1.2%.

However, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dipped 0.2%, dragged down by a 1.6% fall in the Shanghai Composite. Chinese markets continued to decline after reports surfaced that financial regulators were preparing cooling measures for the market.

Bond Market Pressures Remain

While bond market sell-offs slowed overnight, concerns about the fiscal health of major economies, including Japan, Britain, and the U.S., kept long-dated borrowing costs elevated near multi-year highs. A key test for global debt markets will come later today with the auction of 30-year Japanese government bonds. The bond market turmoil, fueled by rising yields, has intensified fears of slowing economic activity.

The dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials, including Governor Christopher Waller, bolstered market sentiment, with investors increasingly expecting rate cuts in the near future. This was further supported by disappointing job openings data from the latest "JOLTS" report, indicating softer labor market conditions.

Traders are now pricing in a near-certainty (96.6%) that the Fed will cut interest rates at its meeting later this month, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. Despite the mixed signals from the Fed’s "Beige Book" on U.S. economic health, the report highlighted concerns about tariffs affecting prices, reinforcing the case for a rate cut.

Market Outlook and Economic Growth Resilience

Despite recent volatility, market participants remain optimistic about the broader economic outlook. "Dip-buyers" have entered the market, looking at recent weakness as an opportunity to buy into equities, believing that global growth remains resilient.

The U.S. dollar remained flat against the Japanese yen at 148.13, within the narrow trading range it has occupied since early August. The euro lost 0.1% to $1.1652, while the dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of major currencies, gained 0.1% to 98.217.

In commodities, Brent crude oil prices fell 0.5% to $67.29 a barrel, while precious metals experienced slight declines, with spot gold dropping 0.8% to $3,529.94 per ounce after reaching a record high on Wednesday.

Asian markets are showing signs of recovery, spurred by optimistic expectations of U.S. rate cuts, though concerns over the global economy and volatile bond markets remain. The market's ability to stabilize will depend on further developments in global fiscal policy, including upcoming economic data and central bank decisions.

Source: Reuters

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$350 Billion Investment Plan to Be Tailored and Managed by Policy Lenders

South Korea’s substantial $350 billion investment pledge in U.S. industries, agreed upon as part of a trade deal in July, will be led by policy financial institutions. Vice Finance Minister Lee Hyoung-il confirmed in an interview that the funds would not be released in a lump sum but allocated strategically, based on emerging needs in key industries such as shipbuilding, AI, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductor manufacturing.

“The $350 billion is a cap,” said Lee, underscoring that the funds will be deployed based on demand. This approach aims to maintain flexibility and ensure that investments are made into commercially viable U.S.-based projects. While the Korea Development Bank (KDB) could be involved in administering the funds, this has not been officially confirmed. State-run lenders like KDB typically manage infrastructure and financial market stabilization funds.

Strategic Focus on U.S.-Based Projects

The deal, which aims to strengthen U.S.-South Korea economic ties, was struck with a commitment to support several critical sectors. The funding mechanism will provide capital on a “capital-call” basis, with each project receiving funding as necessary rather than in one large-scale disbursement.

Despite previous miscommunications about the investment terms, including a claim that the U.S. would take 90% of the profits, South Korean officials have made clear that the investment is intended to bolster industries in both countries without unfavorable terms. The government views the investment as a strategic means of fostering future growth and technological collaboration.

Concerns About FX and Bond Market Stability

In light of the global bond market rout, Lee addressed concerns that South Korea’s own bond and foreign exchange markets could face instability due to rising debt issuance. South Korea is set to issue a record amount of bonds next year to fund various sectors, including AI and semiconductors.

Despite these concerns, Lee reassured that the country would closely monitor foreign exchange markets and take necessary actions to stabilize them. South Korea is also in talks with the U.S. Department of the Treasury to manage dollar-won market fluctuations, with discussions ongoing about extending trading hours for greater market flexibility.

Economic Outlook and AI Investment Focus

Looking ahead, Lee expects South Korea’s economy to recover next year, projecting growth of 1.8%, up from a projected 0.9% this year. The focus will remain on AI technologies, with the government aiming to position South Korea as a global leader in AI-integrated industries, such as robotics and electronics. The government's 2026 budget, worth 728 trillion won ($522 billion), reflects this push, with AI playing a central role in the country’s future economic strategy.

South Korea’s investment strategy in the U.S. will be flexible, with state-run institutions managing funds for specific projects. The government is also taking steps to ensure stability in foreign exchange and bond markets, as concerns around global financial volatility persist. Meanwhile, South Korea is focused on expanding its role in the AI sector to drive future growth and competitiveness.

Source: Reuters

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Winkelmann

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Stocks

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BYD has slashed its sales target for this year by as much as 16% to 4.6 million vehicles, two people with knowledge of the matter said, as the Chinese EV giant faces its slowest annual growth in five years and other signs that its era of record-setting expansion could be drawing to a close.China's largest automaker told analysts in March it was targeting sales of 5.5 million vehicles for 2025. But internally, the number has been downgraded multiple times in recent months, according to the people.

The latest figure of at least 4.6 million vehicles was communicated inside the company and to select suppliers last month to help guide planning, according to the people, both of whom spoke on condition of anonymity.The target remains subject to change depending on market conditions, the people added.The people didn't give a reason for the cut. However, one of them said it comes as BYD feels the heat from growing competition with rivals such as Geely Auto and Leapmotor.Last week, BYD reported a 30% drop in quarterly profit, its first decline in more than three years.

BYD did not respond to a request for comment.

The latest target, which has not been previously reported, is below several recently lowered forecasts from analysts. This week Deutsche Bank said it expected BYD to sell 4.7 million vehicles while Morningstar said it expected 4.8 million.The new target represents a 7% increase from last year and would be the slowest annual growth since 2020, when sales fell by 7%.The pared-back outlook also speaks to the deflationary pressure weighing on the world's second-largest economy, where domestic demand has been hit by a prolonged housing downturn. In the first eight months of this year, BYD has only met some 52% of its original 5.5 million vehicle sales target.

In just a few years, BYD has transformed itself from an EV upstart to one of the world's most important automakers by doing much of its production in-house, allowing it to keep a lid on costs even as it rolls out cutting-edge features.Its sales of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids grew ten-fold between 2020 and 2024, to 4.3 million vehicles, putting it on par with General Motors and Ford in terms of global sales.Yet it is now showing undeniable signs of a slowdown, especially in its main market China, which accounts for almost 80% of its sales and is in the midst of a bruising, years-old price war.

BYD has slowed production and delayed capacity expansion at its Chinese factories, Reuters reported in June.BYD's sales of economy cars - those that go for under 150,000 yuan ($21,000) and make up the bulk of its domestic sales - fell 9.6% in July versus last year, according to Reuters' analysis of its filing and a sales breakdown by Chinese auto data platform DATADIC.

By comparison, Geely's sales of cars in that price segment jumped 90% year-on-year in July.Geely raised its annual sales target for 2025 to 3 million vehicles from 2.71 million, its executives said during an August earnings conference.BYD's production slid for a second straight month in August, marking its first consecutive monthly contraction since 2020.