Silver Just hit $50 an Ounce, the Highest Price in Four Decades

Commodity

Summary:

Spot silver prices hit a record high $51 a troy ounce on Thursday, breaching the $50 threshold for the first time since 1980.

Silver prices have surged roughly 75% this year, boosted by investors seeking out safe havens, plus strong industrial demand and lingering supply deficits.

Spot silver prices hit a record high $51 a troy ounce on Thursday, breaching the $50 threshold for the first time since 1980.

Traders have turned to hard assets like gold and silver this year as safe investments and tools to hedge against geopolitical instability and economic uncertainty, from concerns about tariffs and inflation to worries about Federal Reserve independence and government debt burdens.

Silver has been on a tear, supported by momentum from gold’s record-breaking rally. The metal is considered a cheaper, alternative safe haven investment to gold, which just hit $4,000 a troy ounce for the first time ever.

“There’s just a lot of concern about the global economy, and when that happens, people turn to hard assets like silver,” Michael DiRienzo, CEO of the Silver Institute, previously told CNN. “Silver tends to follow gold upwards.”

A standout year for precious metals

While investor demand is driving up prices, silver also has widespread industrial uses, including in building data centers, solar panels and smartphones.

“Its dual role as an industrial metal and safe-haven asset has amplified the rally, making 2025 a historic year for silver,” Ewa Manthey, a commodities strategist at ING, said in an email.

There are also supply concerns that could underpin higher prices.

The silver market is in its fifth year of a structural supply deficit because of “stagnant mining output” lagging behind demand, according to Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

“Strong and growing demand for silver, combined with a persistent supply deficit, is a recipe for higher prices,” Grant said in an email.

Gold prices have soared across the past two years, driven by investors diversifying into safe havens. Central banks decreasing reliance on the dollar and building reserves of gold also boosted prices.

The safe-haven rally has spread out to other precious metals like silver and platinum this year. Silver and platinum, which are up roughly 75% and 80% this year, respectively, are both outpacing gold, which is up roughly 51%.

Precious metals and bitcoin have also become beneficiaries of Wall Street traders and fund managers looking to protect against a weaker dollar.

Investors can get exposure to silver by buying bars or coins or investing in exchange-traded funds backed by silver. The iShares Silver Trust ETF has surged roughly 68% this year.

Inflows into silver ETFs this year are at their highest level since 2020, according to Marina Smirnova, chief investment officer at Sprott Asset Management.

“Silver’s steady climb is turning into a breakout,” Smirnova said. “Supply is thinning, and investors are taking notice.”

Source: CNN

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

The U.S. directly purchased Argentine pesos on Thursday and finalized a $20 billion currency swap framework with Argentina’s central bank, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a social media post.

The intent is to provide assistance from the Latin American country’s economic turmoil.

“U.S. Treasury is prepared, immediately, to take whatever exceptional measures are warranted to provide stability to markets,” Bessent said, adding that the Treasury Department conducted four days of meetings with Argentinian Finance Minister Luis Caputo in Washington D.C. to come up with the deal.

Bessent has insisted that the Argentina credit swap is not a bailout. Last month, President Donald Trump stopped short of promising Argentina’s President Javier Milei a financial bailout from the Latin American country’s economic turmoil.

Still, U.S. farmers and Democratic lawmakers have criticized the deal as a bailout of a country that has benefited from sales of soybeans to China, to the detriment of U.S. farmers.

Argentina is one of the biggest Latin American economies and the biggest borrower from the International Monetary Fund — its total outstanding credit as of Aug. 31 is $41.8 billion.

The offer to financially help Argentina comes as Donald Trump has frequently promoted his “America First” agenda. Critics contend that the planned intervention is a way to reward a personal friend of Trump’s who is facing a critical midterm election next month.

Milei celebrated Bessent’s announcement on social media, hailing his economy minister, Luis Caputo, as “far and away, the best Minister of Economy in all of Argentine history…!!!”

Caputo was in Washington last week for talks with Bessent about the swap line.

Argentina’s deregulation minister, Federico Sturzenegger, also congratulated Caputo and the rest of the economic team. “Let’s keep working so that our children want to stay and live in Argentina,” he wrote, adding a pitch to voters to support Milei in the crucial midterm elections later this month.

Source: AP

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Manuel

Commodity

Palestinian-Israeli conflict

Oil edged lower as traders focused on cooling tensions in the Middle East and broader markets struck a more cautious tone.

West Texas Intermediate fell as much as 1.9% to trade below $62 a barrel while Brent was near $65. Israel and Hamas reached a deal for a truce and the release of hostages held by the militant group, a major step toward ending a two-year war that’s loomed over flows from the Middle East, the source of a third of the world’s crude.

“Sentiment remains subdued, weighed down by concerns over a sizable fourth-quarter surplus and fears that Chinese crude buying is slowing,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. “Trading likely stays rangebound with a mild downside bias, particularly if broader risk assets come under pressure.” Oil Declines With Gaza Peace Plan and Risk-Off Mood in Focus_1

Oil Declines With Gaza Peace Plan and Risk-Off Mood in Focus_1

The commodity also moved lower in tandem with wider markets without any strong new indicators on supply and demand. The dollar strengthened, making commodities priced in the currency less attractive.

Offering a floor to prices, the US Treasury Department sanctioned more than 50 individuals, entities and vessels that “facilitate” Iranian oil and liquefied petroleum gas sales and shipments from the country. Traders will be following whether an end to fighting in Gaza will impact the status of restrictions against Iran, which backs Hamas.

After a dip lower at the start of the month, crude has edged back toward the $65 to $70 band in which it traded for weeks at the end of the summer. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are ramping up supplies, but so far the impact on prices has been limited by China hoarding barrels.

Many Wall Street banks and other observers including the International Energy Agency have predicted the market will move into a major surplus in the coming months. Among them, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expects Brent to average $56 next year as global production runs ahead of demand.

While consensus remains bearish given expectations for a surplus, “conviction differs on the depth of downside,” Citigroup Inc. analysts including Francesco Martoccia said in a note. Slower non-OPEC+ growth and greater OPEC+ optionality, along with geopolitical risks looming for large producers such as Russia and Iran, could temper the pace of price adjustment, they said.

Source: Bloomberg

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Owen Li

Central Bank

Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr called for a cautious approach to further interest rate cuts on Thursday, emphasizing inflation risks while acknowledging vulnerabilities in the labor market.

"The FOMC should be cautious about adjusting policy so that we can gather further data, update our forecasts, and better assess the balance of risks," Barr said in a speech to the Economic Club of Minnesota, his first monetary policy remarks since June.

Barr described the Fed as being in a "challenging position" with no risk-free path forward, borrowing language from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. While he supported September’s quarter-percentage-point rate cut, much of his speech focused on inflation concerns, particularly those related to tariffs.

The Fed governor forecasts that core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index will rise above 3% by year-end, and noted that Fed officials don’t expect headline inflation to reach the 2% target until the end of 2027. This would mark the longest stretch of PCE inflation above 2% since a seven-year period ending in 1993.

"After the high inflation Americans have endured, two more years would be a long time to wait for a return to our target, and that possibility weighs on my judgment for appropriate monetary policy," Barr stated.

He expressed skepticism about the Fed’s ability to "completely look through tariff-driven inflation" and suggested the current policy rate remains "modestly restrictive." Barr also noted that since the Fed’s September meeting, consumer spending has remained strong, PCE inflation has strengthened, and new tariffs have been announced.

Regarding the labor market, Barr indicated that low payroll growth could signal worse conditions ahead, but also acknowledged that continued economic resilience could lead to stronger hiring. He described the current labor market as "roughly balanced" but potentially vulnerable to shocks.

Barr added that recent spending data suggests GDP growth remained strong in the third quarter, while noting it’s difficult to judge whether the federal government shutdown will significantly impact the overall economy.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Devin

Economic

Commodity

With the price of gold topping $4,000 an ounce for the first time Tuesday, you might be wondering whether the precious metal should be a bigger part of your investment strategy.

Prices have soared by 54% so far this year, putting it on track for its best yearly performance since 1979.

Investors often turn to gold when they lose confidence in other assets, typically in periods of economic uncertainty or market stress, because it's seen as a store of value that holds its worth.

And when the U.S. dollar declines, gold becomes cheaper for international buyers, boosting demand. That's helped push prices higher this year, with China's central bank stockpiling gold as it moves away from U.S. securities, says Rob Haworth, senior investment strategy director at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.

The run-up in prices is also reflected in demand for gold-backed exchange-traded funds, or ETFs — which you can buy in a brokerage account and trade like a stock — making them one of the easiest ways to invest in gold. These funds recorded their biggest month ever for investor buying in September, according to the World Gold Council.

"Gold can play a role in portfolios, providing diversification from traditional stocks and bonds," says Haworth.

How much of your investments should be in gold

Investors can get exposure to gold either by buying physical gold such as bars or coins, investing in gold-backed ETFs, or owning shares of mining companies.

But the most accessible way to invest is probably through gold-backed ETFs, which hold physical gold in vaults and generally track the metal's price.

These are "the most liquid, tax-efficient and low-cost way to invest in gold," Blair duQuesnay, a chartered financial analyst and certified financial planner, tells CNBC.

Most advisers suggest keeping gold to 5% or less of a portfolio, but Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio has been far more bullish — arguing for as much as 15% in times of market stress.

Dalio has long viewed gold as a hedge against declining trust in money and markets. He says that gold stands apart because it's "the only asset that somebody can hold and you don't have to depend on somebody else to pay you money for."

However, most advisors don't see gold as a core investment so much as a useful hedge in turbulent times. That's because it doesn't produce income or profits, and its value depends entirely on investor demand. The risk is that if prices stop climbing, investors are "stuck with a zero-earning asset," says Haworth.

The weak U.S. dollar is another factor to consider: Historically, gold and the dollar tend to move in opposite directions, with a weaker dollar making gold more attractive to global buyers. If the U.S. economy remains resilient, a stronger dollar could limit further gains in gold prices, he says.

"Given those risks, gold is at best a supporting player — perhaps 0% to 5% of a portfolio," says Haworth.

While gold has its place, "allocating too much of your portfolio to gold could come back to bite you," says Bill Shafransky, a CFP at Moneco Advisors. That said, "I don't find anything wrong with 2% to 5%, especially if that helps you sleep better at night."Want to be your own boss? Sign up for CNBC's new online course, How To Start A Business: For First-Time Founders. Find step-by-step guidance for launching your first business, from testing your idea to growing your revenue.

Source: CNBC

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Adam

Commodity

Nothing has displaced the US dollar as the world's favored reserve currency. But gold (GC=F) investors are giving it a shot.

The safe-haven asset is welcoming with open arms the money flowing out of team greenback as political instability, government debt, and the whims of central banks gnaw at the power and influence of fiat currencies.

Gold’s epic run-up coincides with threats of financial turmoil. Instead of competing alongside the dollar and longer-term bonds as places to park your money until trouble passes, gold's rise lays bare the downgrade of other financial shelters. If gold has taken its eponymous medal, there are losers who have lost the competition.

What’s been dubbed the “debasement trade” underscores not just a loss of faith in fiat currencies but a rebalancing of risks and a reorientation of policy solutions to rising government debt.

The US dollar index (DX.Y.NYB) has declined nearly 9% year to date, reflecting those trust issues.

If gold crossing the $4,000-per-ounce mark for the first time signifies a major flight, it echoes earlier periods of heightened inflation and economic instability.

The flight to safe havens is also a peculiar one this go around. As this newsletter has noted, stocks are at record highs, and investors are flocking to what looks like an impervious profit machine from corporate America.

Crypto is enjoying its moment in the sun too. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) breached a new record high this week, performing like its devoted backers have long said it would — as a hedge and a preservation of value. While analysts don't have the historical parallels to draw from, bitcoin in this moment is (finally) behaving like gold.

Only this time, gold is also behaving like gold — and conceptually stealing bitcoin's thunder in the process by being a store of value without all the fuss, volatility, or baggage. All it does is shine.

Still, picking at the differences among this season's winners is a lesser point to what they are beating out. Investors are running at hard assets and crypto as an answer to what's perceived as unsustainable government spending and the mounting debts that follow as a consequence.

Economic growth is one way out of the debt quagmire. That's in part fueling the gold rush, as expected lower rates tend to lead to higher gold prices. But there are broader forces at play.

Analysts have pointed to President Trump's calls for the Federal Reserve to lower rates and, in turn, lower the government's interest costs as a potential economic shift.

In a world where the Fed strives to make servicing the debt cheaper, gold will continue to rise. The erosion of public trust has been and can be a lucrative trade. It's also a warning.

Source: finance.yahoo

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Adam

Economic

Europe has to confront the reality of the “hybrid warfare” being waged against it, according to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, telling EU lawmakers that a series of incidents was “not random harassment” but part of a concerted campaign to unsettle and weaken the bloc.

Recent drone and airspace incursions, cyberattacks and election interference were just a few incidents that von der Leyen cited as instances of hybrid warfare against Europe.

“In just the past two weeks, MiG fighters have violated Estonia’s airspace, and drones have flown over critical sites in Belgium, Poland, Romania, Denmark and Germany. Flights have been grounded, jets scrambled, and countermeasures deployed to ensure the safety of our citizens,” von der Leyen said Wednesday during a speech to the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France.

“Make no mistake. This is part of a worrying pattern of growing threats. Across our Union, undersea cables have been cut, airports and logistics hubs paralysed by cyberattacks, and elections targeted by malign influence campaigns,” von der Leyen said, adding emphatically: “This is hybrid warfare, and we have to take it very seriously.”

While she did not blame all those incidents directly on Moscow, von der Leyen said it was evident that “Russia wants to sow division.”

Moscow has long been accused of being behind a multitude of “hybrid” attacks against its European neighbors but has repeatedly denied those accusations. CNBC contacted the Kremlin for a response to von der Leyen’s latest remarks and is awaiting a response.

What is hybrid warfare?

So what is a hybrid war, or warfare? Put simply, it’s a way to wage a type of warfare without appearing to be doing so.

There is no set definition for hybrid warfare but defense, military and security experts agree that, fundamentally, it blends conventional military methods with more subversive or irregular tactics designed to disrupt, distract and undermine adversaries.

European countries on the periphery of the EU, or those on the frontier with Russia, like the Baltic states Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, or those in Eastern Europe such as Romania and Poland, have been increasingly exposed to hybrid warfare attacks.

These incidents have ranged from energy and telecommunications infrastructure, such as undersea cables, being sabotaged, to Russian jets or submarines venturing into NATO airspace or waters for short periods of time.

Russia has denied being behind many of these incidents, although it tends not to comment on its jets entering NATO airspace or drone incidents that led to Danish airports being closed and flights disrupted. A number of European officials accused Russia of being behind the disruption but national authorities often say it’s difficult to find solid evidence of Russian involvement.

That’s one of the hallmarks of hybrid warfare, the EU’s von der Leyen said, with such incidents “calculated to linger in the twilight of deniability.”

Russia’s campaign of hybrid activities in Europe has expanded significantly since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began over three years ago, according to a report published earlier this year from geopolitical and security intelligence service, Dragonfly.

It documented 219 incidents of suspected Russian hybrid warfare in Europe since 2014, including sabotage, assassinations and electromagnetic attacks, such as GPS jamming. Of these incidents, 86% have taken place since early 2022 and almost half (46%) occurred in 2024 alone.

The Baltic states, Finland, Germany, Norway, Poland and the U.K. will probably remain the primary targets, the report noted, due to their strong support for Ukraine.

Europe says it’s ready to act

European officials are under no illusion that the time to act to bolster regional security and defenses against malign activities is now.

NATO members earlier this year pledged to increase defense spending to 5% of gross domestic product and Europe has vowed to mobilize its defense sector to meet the “permanent threat to European security” that’s posed by Russia, as Luxembourg Prime Minister Luc Frieden told CNBC last week.

Member states discussed last week the creation of “flagship” defense projects such as the Eastern Flank Watch initiative, which proposes the creation of a “drone wall” network that would protect against airspace violations by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). There is some ambivalence over the drone wall, however, with Germany’s defense minister appearing to pour cold water on the idea.

Luxembourg’s Frieden said the EU did not want a conflict with Russia, but needed to protect itself.

“Hybrid attacks are obviously something that can happen anywhere — the cables in the Baltic Sea, the attacks on our IT systems, the drones that can fly over some of our countries, that shows that there is a certain kind of provocation that we have to take seriously,” Frieden said, adding: “I don’t want us to be at war with Russia ... but we need to take threats seriously” he told CNBC’s Silvia Amaro.

“We want to tell Russia, don’t try, stop it, go back ... [and that it has] no chance in conquering the Europe.”