Shocking EUR/USD Forecast: UBS Slashes 2026 Prediction to 1.20 Amid Political Turmoil

Chinese cruise operators are scrambling to avoid Japanese ports as Beijing and Tokyo engage in a diplomatic dispute, which is expected to spur demand for tourism in South Korea, according to sources and cruise schedules reviewed by Reuters.

Tour and port agents said tensions, sparked by recent remarks from Japan's new prime minister, could cause Chinese tourists to be redirected to South Korea from Japan. Earlier this month, Sanae Takaichi told Japanese lawmakers that a Chinese attack on Taiwan threatening Japan's survival could trigger a military response.

Adora Magic City, a Chinese cruise ship that travels to South Korea's touristy island of Jeju as well as Japan, has changed its schedule for December to avoid stopping at the Japanese ports of Fukuoka, Sasebo and Nagasaki as planned, according to a notice posted on the government website of South Korea's Jeju province.

The cruise ship would instead spend 31 to 57 hours in Jeju, longer than its usual schedule of nine hours, the notice said.

An official from Jeju province said the cruise operator requested a change in schedule without providing a reason.

"We suspect that's because of China-Japan relations," said the official, who declined to be identified as he was not authorised to speak to the media.

"It seems like they are drafting a Plan B."

Adora Cruises did not respond to a request for comment.

Japan has been counting the cost of the diplomatic dispute, with Tokyo-based tour operator East Japan International Travel Service saying this week it had lost 80% of its bookings for the remainder of the year.

Lee Yong-gun, CEO of South Korean port agent Eastern Shipping, told Reuters other Chinese cruise lines were also in talks to reroute.

"If the China-Japan relationship further deteriorates and China excludes Japan's products, culture and tourism, I expect Korea should benefit from that," Lee said.

The operator of the "Dream" cruise ship, which departs from the Chinese city of Tianjin, wanted to avoid Japan and reroute to a South Korean port in Incheon or Busan over the next couple of weeks but there was not enough time to change itineraries, he said, citing a discussion with the ship's operator.

Tianjin Orient International Cruise Line, which operates the vessel, did not respond to a request for comment.

Details of cruise liners skipping Japan and staying longer in Korea or considering doing so due to the diplomatic dispute have not been previously reported.

South Korea has emerged as the top destination for Chinese travellers in terms of the volume of international flight tickets booked over the weekend of November 15 and 16, according to data from online travel agency Qunar.

Scores of Chinese airlines have offered refunds on routes to Japan, a move that is expected to boost air travel to South Korea.

An executive at Jeju Air said the South Korean budget carrier is anticipating an increase in Chinese tourists, although there had been no immediate impact.

On Wednesday, the chief executive of a South Korean tour agency for Chinese travellers said he had just received an inquiry from a client asking whether an event - originally planned for Japan early next year - could be moved to South Korea instead.

"South Korea will clearly benefit from the dispute," he told Reuters. "But we are in a wait-and-see mode for now," he said, asking not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the matter.

In 2013, South Korea experienced a jump of more than 50% in the number of Chinese tourists it welcomed due to a territorial dispute between Beijing and Tokyo over some islands.

While Beijing's advisory against travel to Japan has hit the country's tourism-related stocks, it has also caused shares of South Korean travel-related companies to surge this week.

Lotte Tour Development (032350.KS), which operates a hotel and a casino on Jeju island, has risen more than 20%; travel agency Yellow Balloon Tour (104620.KQ) is up 24%; and department store operator Shinsegae (004170.KS)has gained 6% on hopes that Chinese travellers will redirect to South Korea.

Some in the travel industry said it could take time before there is an uptick in Chinese tourists in South Korea.

"It (the diplomatic dispute) just happened a few days ago, so it might take time to see an increase in Chinese tourists coming to Korea, but we expect that to happen," said Kim Seol-yeong, an official at Huaqing Group, a Jeju-based tour operator for Chinese cruise tourists.

Luna Wang, a 34-year-old from Hangzhou in China, said she had been thinking about travelling to Japan again this year but may now opt for South Korea instead.

"Now it seems like Japan is not safe for Chinese people to travel ... I guess the only good option is to go to Korea," she said.The founder of Chinese firm Moment Travel in Chengdu noted a dramatic change in perceptions about travelling to Japan.

"The feeling now is that whoever goes is a traitor," said founder Su Shu.

Source: Reuters

The French business climate indicator rose to 98 from 97 in October, according to Insee. The improvement is largely due to services, where confidence gained 3 points on more favourable expectations for demand and activity. The PMI survey, also released this morning, confirms the trend: the services index hit its highest level in 15 months, signalling a cyclical rebound.

By contrast, industry is flashing warning signs. The manufacturing PMI fell to its lowest in nine months, and the business climate reflects weaker order books and production prospects. Transport equipment firms are particularly downbeat after a strong growth phase. Momentum in this sector appears to be fading, pointing to a weaker industrial contribution from Q4 onwards and into 2026. While some cyclical improvement in certain industrial sub-sectors is likely, the slowdown in transport will weigh on overall industrial growth. Confidence in retail also slipped slightly but remains well above September levels.

Limited growth expected in 2026

Overall, the French economy looks uneven: industry, notably aerospace, is losing steam, while services benefit from renewed confidence. This uptick, helped by political calm despite the absence of a 2026 budget, could support consumption in the fourth quarter. However, the recovery rests on fragile foundations and may fade quickly.

Fiscal uncertainty will remain a major drag. We expect no budget agreement before year-end, meaning the 2025 budget will roll over into 2026. Fiscal tightening will then be introduced gradually, but it is unlikely the deficit will fall to 4.6% of GDP as promised by the government (5% seems more realistic, after 5.4% in 2025). A more restrictive fiscal stance will cap French growth, which should stay below the eurozone average: we forecast GDP growth of 0.9% in 2026 after 0.8% in 2025, compared with 1.1% for the eurozone (after 1.4% in 2025).

In short, while the rebound in services offers temporary relief, tighter fiscal policy signals a moderate trajectory for the French economy.

Source: ING

FP Markets MT5 is a powerful trading platform offered by FP Markets for investors who want faster execution, advanced analysis tools, and flexible multi-asset trading. This guide explores how FP Markets MT5 works, its real trading fees, download and setup steps, as well as its pros and cons. Whether you are a beginner or an experienced trader, this article helps you decide if FP Markets MT5 suits your trading needs.

FP Markets MT5 Overview: Is It the Right Platform for You?

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How reliable is FP Markets MT5 in real trading?

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The AUDUSD rate dipped to the 0.6440 support level amid USD strengthening following US labour market statistics. Discover more in our analysis for 21 November 2025.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: the US dollar received support from the Nonfarm Payrolls data
• Current trend: correcting downwards
• AUDUSD forecast for 21 November 2025: 0.6400 or 0.6500

Fundamental analysis

The Australian dollar came under pressure after the release of US labour market data for September. Despite an increase in the US unemployment rate to 4.4%, Nonfarm Payrolls showed solid growth of 119 thousand. Analysts believe the Federal Reserve will pause and avoid cutting rates in December.

Annual wage growth in Australia remained stable at 3.4% in Q3, in line with expectations and highlighting the underlying strength of the labour market. Markets currently price in only a 40% probability of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia by May next year.

AUDUSD technical analysis

The AUDUSD pair is undergoing a downward correction following its recent strong rise. The Alligator indicator has turned downwards, suggesting further correction. The key support level is now 0.6440.

The short-term AUDUSD forecast suggests growth towards the resistance level near 0.6500 if bulls regain control. However, if bears gain a foothold below 0.6440, the pair could decline towards the 0.6400 support level.

Summary

The AUDUSD rate has fallen to the 0.6440 support level. The US dollar strengthened following September labour market data, and the market now doubts that the Federal Reserve will lower rates in December.

Source: RoboForex

British business growth ground almost to a halt this month, as companies put their plans on hold while they waited to see if next week's government budget will raise the tax burden for a second year running, according to a major survey.

The S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index composite flash measure - a preliminary reading for the services and manufacturing sectors - dropped to 50.5 in November from 52.2 in October, barely above the 50 no-change mark.

The reading was below all economists' forecasts in a Reuters poll, and S&P said the slowdown suggested output would be flat in November and expand just 0.1% in the final quarter of 2025, matching the third quarter's weak growth.

"There's a real chance this pause may turn into a downturn ... largely linked to speculation that further demand-dampening measures will be introduced in the Budget," S&P Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson said.

Finance minister Rachel Reeves raised taxes by the most since 1993 in her first annual budget last year, with businesses bearing the brunt through higher payroll taxes.

This year, Reeves is expected to need to raise a further 20 billion-30 billion pounds ($26 billion-$39 billion) due to an expected growth downgrade from the government's budget watchdog as well as higher borrowing costs and an inability to pass planned welfare cuts through parliament.

For much of the survey period, Reeves had indicated she was likely to break Labour's election promises and raise the main rate of income tax for the first time since the 1970s, although now she appears to favour a string of smaller measures.

The PMI showed private-sector employment fell at the fastest pace in four months, while prices charged by businesses rose by the smallest amount since December 2020, likely boosting the chances the Bank of England will cut interest rates next month.

The services PMI, which accounts for the bulk of the economy, dropped to 50.5 from 52.3 after new business fell for the first time since July, while the manufacturing PMI showed growth for the first time since September 2024, edging up to 50.2 from 49.7.

Source: Reuters

The eurozone remains on a decent growth path right now. While manufacturing output growth waned somewhat in November, service sector activity maintained a strong growth pace, according to the survey as the services PMI came in at 53.1, slightly higher than in October.

Core Europe saw differing patterns in November as France experienced a boost to the PMI thanks to a jump in the services activity index, which brings the overall index back up to 50.8. That indicates a slight expansion. Germany, which had seen a strong October, saw a slight slowdown as the PMI fell from 53.9 to 52.1.

Business sentiment has undoubtedly turned more optimistic over the course of the year, which has translated into sluggish economic growth so far. At the same time, global headwinds have not pushed the bloc into recession. While we expect activity to strengthen further in 2026, we remain cautious about translating improved sentiment into immediate, faster growth.

With consumer intentions to save at an all-time high, a strong euro, and many trade war effects still working their way through the economy, overly optimistic growth expectations should be tempered in the months ahead.

Source: ING