Shares Of Coinbase, Circle Surge After Stablecoin Bill Passes Senate

WTI/CL Technical Analysis

Brent Technical Analysis

Source: fxempire

The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, but stayed at levels consistent with a further loss of labor market momentum in June and softening economic activity.

The report from the Labor Department on Wednesday showed widespread layoffs in the prior week, which had boosted claims to an eight-month high. Though some technical factors accounted for the elevation in claims, layoffs have risen this year, with economists saying President Donald Trump's broad tariffs had created a challenging economic environment for businesses.

Those challenges were also evident in other data showing permits for future construction of single-family housing dropped to a two-year low in May as builders grappled with higher costs from duties on materials, including lumber, steel and aluminum.

Higher borrowing costs as the Federal Reserve responded to the heightened economic uncertainty from tariffs by pausing its interest rate cutting cycle have weighed on demand for homes, resulting in excess inventory of unsold houses.

Fed officials were on Wednesday expected to leave the U.S. central bank's benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range, where it has been since December as they also monitor the economic fallout from the conflict between Israel and Iran.

"Even though claims remain low by historical standards, we can no longer deny that there is some upward movement toward levels that would support our assessment of an economy slowing into a contraction," said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. "It is time, now, to say that."

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 245,000 for the week ended June 14. Data for the prior week was revised to show 2,000 more applications received than previously reported, lifting claims for that week to the highest since October.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 245,000 claims for the latest week. The report was released a day early because of the Juneteenth National Independence Day holiday on Thursday.

Layoffs were reported in the prior week across several states in a range of industries including transportation and warehousing, accommodation and food services, agriculture, construction and manufacturing.

The four-week moving average of claims, which strips out seasonal fluctuations from the data, increased 4,750 to 245,500 last week, the highest level since August 2023. But some economists do not view the labor market as having changed much.

"The increase could be a sign of a slight pickup in job separations," said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital. "However, there appears to be a marked seasonal pattern in the last three years in the seasonally adjusted claims data where claims rise from mid-February through the summer and then retreat later in the year."

Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher. The dollar fell versus a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury yields eased.

Housing market shaky

The claims data covered the period during which the government surveyed businesses for the nonfarm payrolls component of June's employment report. Claims increased between the May and June survey weeks.

Historically low layoffs have accounted for much of the labor market stability, with the hiring side of the equation tepid amid hesitancy by employers to boost headcount because of the unsettled economic environment. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 139,000 jobs in May, compared with a 193,000 gain a year ago.

Data next week on the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, could shed more light on the state of the labor market in June.

The so-called continuing claims dropped 6,000 to a still-high seasonally adjusted 1.945 million during the week ending June 7. Recently laid-off workers are struggling to find work.

Continuing claims and jobs confidence

A separate report from the Commerce Department's Census Bureau showed permits for future construction of single-family housing dropped 2.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 898,000 units in May, the lowest level since April 2023.

Higher borrowing costs have sidelined potential buyers, boosting the supply of new single-family homes on the market to levels last seen in late 2007. That has left builders with little incentive to break ground on new housing projects.

An immigration crackdown that has seen raids at construction sites could lead to labor shortages, compounding problems for builders, economists said.

A line chart titled "US mortgage rates" that tracks the metric over time.

A National Association of Home Builders survey on Tuesday showed sentiment among single-family homebuilders plummeted to a 2-1/2-year low in June.

Permits for the volatile multi-family housing segment, buildings with five units or more, rose 1.4% to a rate of 444,000 units in May. Overall building permits fell 2.0% to a rate of 1.393 million units, the lowest level since June 2020.

Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, gained 0.4% to 924,000 units last month. Starts for multi-family housing units slumped 30.4% to a rate of 316,000 units. Overall housing starts plunged 9.8% to a rate of 1.256 million units, the lowest level in five years.

Housing starts and building permits

The completions rate for single-family houses surged 8.1% to 1.027 million units. The inventory of housing under construction decreased 1.3% to a rate of 623,000 units, the lowest level since February 2021.

"We don't expect an imminent collapse in the housing market," said Matthew Martin, a senior U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. "However, uncertainty will keep construction depressed the remainder of the year."

Source: Reuters

GBP/USD Technical Analysis and Trade Ideas

FOMC Rate Decision to Be Overshadowed by Middle East Tensions

BoE Could Turn More Dovish

Source: investing

Source: cnbc

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rejected Donald Trump's demand for unconditional surrender on Wednesday, and the U.S. president said his patience had run out, though he gave no clue as to what his next step would be.

Speaking to reporters outside the White House, Trump declined to say whether he had made any decision on whether to join Israel's bombing campaign against Iran.

"I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I'm going to do," he said.

Trump said Iranian officials had reached out about negotiations including a possible meeting at the White House but "it's very late to be talking," he said.

"Unconditional surrender, that means I've had it."

Asked for his response to Khamenei rejecting his demand to surrender, Trump said: "I say, good luck."

Iranians jammed the highways out of the capital Tehran, fleeing from intensified Israeli airstrikes.

In its latest bombing run, Israel said its air force had destroyed Iran's police headquarters.

"As we promised – we will continue to strike at symbols of governance and hit the ayatollah regime wherever it may be," Defence Minister Israel Katz said.

Khamenei, 86, rebuked Trump in a recorded speech played on television, his first appearance since Friday.

The Americans "should know that any U.S. military intervention will undoubtedly be accompanied by irreparable damage," he said.

"Intelligent people who know Iran, the Iranian nation and its history will never speak to this nation in threatening language because the Iranian nation will not surrender."

Trump has veered from proposing a swift diplomatic end to the five-day-old war to suggesting the United States might join it. In social media posts on Tuesday, he mused about killing Khamenei, then demanded Iran's "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!"

A source familiar with internal discussions said Trump and his team were considering options that included joining Israel in strikes against Iranian nuclear installations. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told a Senate committee that the Pentagon was prepared to execute any order given by Trump

Iran's mission to the United Nations mocked Trump in posts on X: "Iran does NOT negotiate under duress, shall NOT accept peace under duress, and certainly NOT with a has-been warmonger clinging to relevance," it wrote.

"No Iranian official has ever asked to grovel at the gates of the White House," it said. "The only thing more despicable than his lies is his cowardly threat to 'take out' Iran’s Supreme Leader."

Israel's military said 50 Israeli jets struck around 20 targets in Tehran overnight, including sites producing raw materials, components and manufacturing systems for missiles. The military told Iranians to leave parts of the capital for their own safety while it struck targets.

Item 1 of 14 Smoke rises following an Israeli attack in Tehran, Iran, June 18, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS

TRAFFIC BACKED UP

Traffic was backed up on highways leading out of the capital Tehran, a city of 10 million people, as residents sought sanctuary elsewhere.

Arezou, a 31-year-old Tehran resident, told Reuters by phone that she had made it out to the nearby resort town of Lavasan.

"We will stay here as long as this war continues. My friend’s house in Tehran was attacked and her brother was injured. They are civilians," she said. "Why are we paying the price for the regime’s decision to pursue a nuclear programme?”

In Israel, sirens rang out warning people of retaliatory Iranian missile strikes. At Ramat Gan city train station east of Tel Aviv, people were lying on city-supplied mattresses lined along the floor or sitting in the odd camping chair, with plastic water bottles strewn about.

"I feel scared, overwhelmed. Especially because I live in a densely populated area that Iran seems to be targeting, and our city has very old buildings, without shelters and safe spaces," said Tamar Weiss, clutching her four-month-old daughter.

Iran has been exploring options for leverage, including veiled threats to hit the global oil market by restricting access to the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important shipping artery for oil.

Oil prices leapt 9% on Friday and have marched further higher this week. The CEO of Italian energy company Eni (ENI.MI), opens new tab said the rises so far were still limited, signaling an expectation that serious disruption would be averted.

A former Iranian economy minister, Ehsan Khandouzi, said on X that Iran should start demanding tankers obtain permission to transit the strait. Iran's Oil Ministry and Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

BAN ON FILMING

Inside Iran, authorities are intent on preventing panic and shortages. Fewer images of destruction have been allowed to circulate than in the early days of the bombing, when state media showed pictures of explosions, fires and flattened apartments. A ban on filming by the public has been imposed.

The state has placed limits on how much fuel can be purchased. Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad told state TV that restrictions were in place to prevent shortages, but there would be no problem supplying fuel to the public.

Iranian officials have reported at least 224 deaths in Israeli attacks, mostly civilians, though that toll has not been updated for days.

In Israel, Iran's missile volleys mark the first time in decades of shadow war and proxy conflict that a significant number of projectiles fired from Iran have penetrated defences, killing Israelis in their homes.

Since Friday, Iran has fired around 400 missiles at Israel, some 40 of which have pierced through air defences, killing 24 people, all of them civilians, according to Israeli authorities.

With Khamenei's main military and security advisers killed, the leader's inner circle has been narrowed, raising the risk that he could make strategic errors, according to five people familiar with his decision-making process.

During the Gaza war, Israel has dealt heavy blows to Iran's regional allies Hamas and Hezbollah, limiting Tehran's ability to retaliate through strikes by its proxy fighters close to Israeli borders. Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, propped up by Iran through 13 years of war, was toppled last year.

Source: Reuters

As well as food getting more expensive, furniture and household items also went up, increasing the rate of inflation for goods in shops from 1.7% in April to 2% last month, despite the cost of clothing and footwear declining by 0.3% over the past year.

Source: Theguardian