Romanian Inflation Holds Firm In November

Forex

Economic

Summary:

Food inflation was marginally below what we had expected, non-food inflation was roughly in line with expectations, while services inflation was slightly higher than we had expected.

Some price pressures begin to moderate

Food inflation was marginally below what we had expected, non-food inflation was roughly in line with expectations, while services inflation was slightly higher than we had expected. That said, on the latter in particular, pressures appear to be less broad-based across the category, likely a sign that slower demand and diminishing wage pressures are starting to act on arguably the stickiest part of the consumer basket.

Today's data also offered a fresh look at wage growth evolution, which has shown some minor improvements (4.3% year-on-year in October versus 4.1% in September) but remained visibly below inflation, continuing to be a drag on consumption.

The outlook: marginal upward shift amid mixed risks

The small upside divergences from the past two months led to an upward adjustment in our year-end 2025 forecast from 9.6% to 9.8%. This also means minor upward changes in next year's inflation path. At this stage, our average inflation forecast for 2026 has inched up from 7.1% to 7.2%, with a year-end value of 4.5%, above the National Bank of Romania's 3.7% projection.

Risks to this outlook remain two-sided. On the upside, renewed energy price pressures, particularly gas bills from April 2026, could push inflation higher. On the downside, soft demand and moderating wages are likely to dominate the near-term picture, reducing the risk of second-round effects from the current inflationary upswing. Our commodities team also expects oil and natural gas prices to ease in 2026.

Overall, this inflation episode looks far less intense than the surge that followed the Covid pandemic, as key drivers such as fiscal stimulus, commodity shocks and strong wage growth are absent. This should, in principle, allow the National Bank of Romania to begin reducing interest rates even before inflation starts to print meaningfully lower in 2026, shifting its attention more towards the downside pressures in economic activity. Our base case remains for a first rate cut in May 2026, with a total of 100bp in cuts next year.

Source: ING

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Danske Bank

Stocks

Economic

In focus today

In Sweden, the Swedish labour force survey (LFS) for November is set to be released. We anticipate the unemployment rate to come in at 7.90% (8.80% seasonally adjusted). Recent indicators, including the Sweden's Public Employment Servies (SPES), has continued to show an improvement of the Swedish labour market. As SPES typically serves as a leading indicator for the LFS, we might see some improvement today. However, it could well be too early for significant changes to appear.

In Germany, we receive the final inflation data for November. While CPI was unchanged at 2.3% y/y there was a large upside surprise in the HICP index which rose to 2.6% y/y. HICP services inflation was the culprit behind the surprise as it rose to 4.2% y/y (prior: 3.6%) and the final print will shed more light on the drivers.

In the UK, October GDP data is released. After a couple of weak prints, job losses becoming more prominent, and inflation edging somewhat lower, the Bank of England looks ready to cut rates again next week.

In Japan, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) releases its extensive quarterly Tankan business survey on Sunday night. This will be scrutinised by the BoJ ahead of its rate decision Friday next week. Business sentiment is strong in Japan, particularly in the service sector, where tourism is contributing to solid demand.

Also, early Monday, China brings the release of the monthly batch of data for retail sales, industrial production, housing and investments. We expect it to show more of the same, i.e. still weak consumer spending, low home sales, further declines in home prices but decent increase in industrial production supported by robust exports. China is a two-speed economy with strong exports and tech development but weak demand in domestic demand.

Economic and market news

What happened yesterday

In the US, the Federal Reserve has unanimously reappointed its 11 regional presidents in a vote held every five years. While this process typically attracts little attention, scrutiny from the Trump administration and debates about central bank independence raised concerns that some terms could have been blocked.

In Norway, Norges Bank Regional Survey showed that the aggregated production index for next quarter (Q1/26) dropped to 0.3, marginally lower than Norges Bank's expected growth in the September MPR. More importantly, capacity utilization fell from 35% to 33% and the indicator for labour shortage dropped from 25% to 22%. Combined with lower inflation and higher unemployment, this points to a lower rate path in the MPR published next week. Lastly, wage growth this year fell from 4.5% to 4.4%, a bit lower than Norges Bank expected in September.

In Sweden, final inflation figures aligned closely with the flash estimate. November CPI was 0.3% y/y and -0.4% m/m, while CPIF came in at 2.3% y/y and -0.2% m/m, slightly above the flash estimate by 0.1 percentage point. Core inflation was 2.4% y/y and -0.6% m/m. The larger-than-usual monthly decline was driven by a sharper drop in recreation and hotels. Goods prices also fell, including clothing and furniture, with clothing declining slightly more than anticipated, likely driven by earlier and more Black Friday sales. Core inflation was 0.4 percentage points below our forecast, with 0.3 percentage points explained by the unexpected dip in recreation, primarily from package holidays.

In Switzerland, The SNB kept the policy rate at 0%, as widely expected, and maintained its stance on FX intervention. Inflation forecasts were lowered due to recent weaker-than-expected inflation, and the SNB signalled continued monitoring and readiness to adjust policy if needed.

In Turkey, the Central Bank of Turkey surprised markets by lowering its key policy rate by 150 bp to 38%.

In geopolitics, Ukraine has presented its revised 20-point framework to the US, with territorial concessions remaining a key hurdle. The US proposed a 'free economic zone' in part of Donbas and potential joint governance of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. The broader plan includes security guarantees, rebuilding efforts, and maintaining a strong Ukrainian military. While Washington seeks clarity by Christmas, Zelenskiy insists on a referendum for any territorial concessions.

Equities: Equities were generally higher yesterday despite some emerging weakness in the tech sector. The S&P 500 gained 0.2% but equal-weight S&P 500 0.8%, and the Stoxx 600 advanced 0.6%. The tech pullback was driven by a disappointing report from Oracle, which showed slowing revenue growth and a notable increase in spending. Had this occurred three weeks ago, the market reaction would likely have been pronounced. However, yesterday the weakness remained contained within tech. In fact, materials, financials, and industrials extended their post-Fed-meeting gains, rising another 1-2%. So, the rotation was notable. Futures are little changed this morning.

FI and FX: Norges Bank will publish their funding outlook for 2026, whereas the Riksbank is closing in on their second last nominal SGB QT-auction. The SNB left its policy rate unchanged but stands ready to act in foreign exchange markets, at the same time as they try to withstand a negative policy rate. Net movement in US and EUR rates were relatively muted during yesterday's session. EUR/USD continued to edge higher and touched 1.176 yesterday afternoon.

Source: Danske Bank

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Swissquote

Stocks

Commodity

The S&P 500 continued to push higher yesterday as the US 2-year yield wavered around the 3.50% mark following a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut earlier this week that was ultimately perceived as not that hawkish after all. The cut is especially boosting the non-tech pockets of the market.

The S&P 500's equal-weight index is catching up with the tech-heavy, market-cap-weighted version, suggesting further upside potential from a rotation out of growth and into value. Normally, the tech and growth-heavy sectors react more to changes in borrowing costs because more of their future revenue gets discounted to today. But sky-high valuations in tech mean they've become less reactive to the rate cut. Investors clearly have bigger concerns.

The Nasdaq 100 failed to eke out gains after the Fed cut, as a more-than-10% slump in Oracle shares dampened sentiment across tech and dragged broader AI names lower. Nvidia, for example, lost more than 1.5% on worries about the circularity of AI deals — and for being situated at the centre of the largest AI loop to date: the one surrounding OpenAI.

If it's any comfort, OpenAI announced a $1bn deal with Disney yesterday. Under the agreement, Disney will invest $1bn in OpenAI, and OpenAI will allow Sora users to generate short videos using more than 200 Disney, Marvel, Pixar and Star Wars characters. You might remain sceptical, but this is an interesting revenue channel for OpenAI, as content creators may be willing to spend more on Sora — which has faded somewhat since launch — because these characters can boost engagement and monetisation on platforms like YouTube.

This announcement is encouraging for those wondering how companies will monetise AI without relying heavily on advertising. The OpenAI–Disney partnership offers an alternative to flooding chatbots with ads — something that would make them feel as annoying as Facebook's feed. It doesn't have the same scale as ad revenue (Facebook earned $51.24 bn last quarter, with roughly $50.1 bn coming from advertising), but it does illustrate how OpenAI turns its models into dollars. The company has commercial deals across a wide range of industries. There is Microsoft, where Copilot uses OpenAI's intelligence. There is Eli Lilly — a major pharma company — working with OpenAI on AI-enabled R&D and drug discovery. There are commerce-related partnerships, such as Walmart's integration that lets users buy products through ChatGPT's conversational interface. OpenAI previously supported Shopify and Etsy with chat-commerce capabilities in exchange for fees. And it has an enterprise partnership with Databricks to embed OpenAI models into its platform. OpenAI needs a continuous flow of such deals to justify its lofty valuation and those of its partners, but the negative press often feels disproportionate for a company that fundamentally changed how we interact with machines only three years ago.

Now, none of this answers whether "this is a bubble". The internet outlived the dot-com crisis even as countless companies disappeared. But it does show how far AI capabilities can extend across industries and clients — from Microsoft and Eli Lilly to Walmart and Disney — and how productivity gains, in blue-collar sectors, could support long-term demand.

Turning to individual earnings, Broadcom reported very strong results yesterday. Revenue jumped 28% to $18 bn, and earnings surpassed expectations thanks to surging AI-chip demand. The company disclosed $73 bn in AI-related orders already booked, issued an upbeat Q1 revenue outlook of $19 bn, and raised its dividend by 10%. Not bad. The problem is that expectations were simply too high, and after an initial uptick the stock fell more than 4% in after-hours trading as investors focused on margin pressures and profit dynamics in AI.

So we're back to square one. Taken together, Oracle and Broadcom reminded the market that while AI demand remains strong, leveraged investments and uncertain monetisation paths are preventing investors from adding exposure at current valuations.

Investors instead seem to prefer gold, silver, and copper. Gold is back in a solid uptrend after the October correction, supported by lower US yields and a softer dollar. Silver and copper benefit from the same bullish factors— plus tight supply conditions. Oil bulls, by contrast, remain impossible to cheer up. Despite earlier geopolitical tensions, WTI continues to test the $58 level on the downside, pressured by ample supply from the US, OPEC, and non-OPEC producers, even as the US dollar index falls below its 100-day moving average.

This week ends on a dovish note for the Fed, a positive one for Treasuries, metals, and value stocks, and a negative one for the dollar, oil, and tech stocks. Next week's US CPI release — the first one since the shutdown — will either confirm or challenge the post-Fed trend. The last headline figure pointed to 3% inflation, still above the Fed's 2% target. A sufficiently soft CPI print would likely reinforce the recent price action into year-end and could deliver fresh all-time highs in some indices, especially the smaller and non-tech ones. A stronger reading could cool risk appetite and revive concerns that the Fed may not be able to cut rates next year if inflation remains sticky.

Source: Swissquote Bank SA

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Winkelmann

Forex

Economic

The EURUSD rate has risen above the 1.1700 level. The euro received support from the Fed's rate cut and slowing inflation in the eurozone.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

· Market focus: Germany's consumer inflation for November remained at 2.3%

· Current trend: an upward impulse is observed

· EURUSD forecast for 12 December 2025: 1.1800 or 1.1650

Fundamental analysis

The US Federal Reserve implemented an expected 25-basis-point rate cut, while simultaneously signaling a likely pause in January as policymakers await additional data to assess the economic outlook.

Meanwhile, investors have reduced expectations for further policy easing by the ECB after officials indicated that additional rate cuts may not be necessary in 2026.

ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the central bank will raise its eurozone growth forecasts next week, as the economy continues to demonstrate resilience despite ongoing trade tensions.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, EURUSD quotes continue to strengthen, rising above the 1.1700 level. The Alligator indicator has also turned upward following the price, suggesting that the euro's advance may continue in the near term. The key support area is located around 1.1650.

Within the short-term EURUSD outlook, if bulls manage to maintain control, further growth toward the 1.1800 level and above is quite possible. If bears manage to regain the initiative, a pullback toward support at 1.1650 may occur.

Summary

The EURUSD price has risen above the 1.1700 mark. The ECB does not plan to cut interest rates in the near future.

EURUSD 2026-2027 forecast: key market trends and future predictions

This article provides the EURUSD forecast for 2026 and 2027 and highlights the main factors determining the direction of the pair's movements. We will apply technical analysis, take into account the opinions of leading experts, large banks, and financial institutions, and study AI-based forecasts. This comprehensive insight into EURUSD predictions should help investors and traders make informed decisions.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026 and beyond: expert insights, price predictions, and analysis

Dive deep into the Gold (XAUUSD) price outlook for 2026 and beyond, combining technical analysis, expert forecasts, and key macroeconomic factors. It explains the drivers behind gold's recent surge, explores potential scenarios including a move toward 4,500 to 5,000 USD per ounce, and highlights why the metal remains a strong hedge during global uncertainty.

Source: RoboForex

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Gerik

Economic

Intel’s Quiet Engagement with ACM Raises Regulatory Red Flags

Intel, a pillar of America’s semiconductor ambitions and partially government-backed, has reportedly tested advanced chipmaking tools this year from ACM Research a company whose two overseas units, in Shanghai and South Korea, are subject to U.S. sanctions. The equipment in question, known as "wet etch tools," is used to clean and remove layers on silicon wafers and is considered critical in advanced semiconductor manufacturing. These tools were reportedly evaluated for Intel’s future 14A process, a cutting-edge chip fabrication platform scheduled for a 2027 debut.

Although Intel's use of the tools does not appear to breach existing regulations, the association with a firm whose Chinese unit is restricted due to military-related concerns has rekindled anxiety among U.S. national security analysts and lawmakers. The central issue lies not only in the testing of the tools, but in the possibility that proprietary U.S. technology could be indirectly exposed or that ACM's products could be manipulated to compromise chip production.

Sanctions, Executive Scrutiny, and Strategic Ambiguity

The situation comes months after President Donald Trump publicly criticized Intel’s CEO amid broader concerns over China’s rising influence in the global chip supply chain. While Trump recently softened some of his chip export restrictions allowing Nvidia to resume sales of certain AI chips to China his administration, along with bipartisan lawmakers, continues to view Chinese toolmakers with suspicion.

Recent legislative efforts aim to restrict the use of Chinese-made chip tools by any company benefiting from billions in U.S. semiconductor subsidies. Intel’s move to evaluate tools from ACM, despite their links to Chinese military-supported firms like SMIC and YMTC, appears to run counter to the spirit of these efforts even if it technically remains within legal boundaries.

Chris McGuire, a former National Security Council official, emphasized the strategic risk: Chinese-linked tools could be manipulated remotely, potentially threatening U.S. chip supply chains or enabling Beijing to siphon off technological know-how. ACM counters this by asserting that its U.S. operations are completely segregated from its sanctioned Chinese units and that customer data is safeguarded under stringent internal protocols.

Deep China Ties Despite U.S. Headquarters

ACM Research was founded by David Wang, a U.S. citizen with Chinese permanent residence, who still holds majority voting control. Although headquartered in Fremont, California, the firm’s R&D operations are predominantly located in Shanghai. Its clientele includes multiple Chinese firms already under U.S. sanctions, including YMTC, CXMT, and SMIC entities tied to China’s military-industrial ambitions.

These associations have caught the attention of U.S. regulators. The House Select Committee on China flagged ACM in a 2025 report for allegedly supplying semiconductor manufacturing equipment to a U.S.-based firm, suspected to be Intel, and formally certifying it for production use. Such interactions, even if legal, may enable backdoor support for China’s semiconductor ambitions through indirect technology transfers.

ACM’s Expansion in the U.S. Raises Strategic Eyebrows

Adding to the concerns is ACM’s 2023 opening of a facility in Hillsboro, Oregon just a mile from Intel’s premier R&D and fabrication plant. This “Silicon Forest” presence has reportedly facilitated direct engagement with Intel, with tool evaluations underway and further integration anticipated in 2026. Hedge fund Kerrisdale Capital reports that ACM is tailoring its Oregon facility to allow Intel to test wafers directly, suggesting a closer relationship than either company publicly acknowledges.

Despite ACM’s claim that it is not a significant supplier to any U.S. chipmaker, industry sources indicate otherwise. Kerrisdale highlights “active tool evaluations” and notes that ACM’s U.S. lab upgrades were designed to deepen collaboration with Intel though whether this translates into full adoption remains unknown.

Geopolitical Pressures and Market Dynamics Collide

The broader context includes Beijing’s strategic push to dominate semiconductor manufacturing and reduce dependence on Western suppliers. ACM has grown its global market share in cleaning tools to 8%, per Gartner, and offers prices 20%–30% lower than Western competitors such as Applied Materials and Lam Research. This cost advantage, if sustained, may tempt even subsidy-backed U.S. firms to explore such options, further complicating Washington’s goal of decoupling critical technologies from Chinese influence.

Moreover, as Chinese toolmakers make competitive gains, Washington risks a two-front dilemma: enforcing national security measures while maintaining competitiveness in a highly globalized industry. Intel’s exploratory engagement with ACM may therefore be more symptomatic of industry cost pressures and innovation demands than political intent but it still underscores the fragility of national tech safeguards.

Intel’s ACM Engagement Highlights Systemic Vulnerability

Intel’s testing of ACM tools, though not illegal, exposes persistent gaps in U.S. tech protection frameworks. The incident illustrates how globalized supply chains allow even firms under partial government ownership to brush up against sanctioned entities without regulatory fallout. While ACM insists its U.S. operations are independent and secure, the geopolitical implications particularly given ACM’s deep China ties suggest a need for more coherent, forward-looking policies.

The causal link between China’s growing technological footprint and U.S. national security anxiety is evident. As Chinese toolmakers inch closer to parity, their presence in Western fabs, even indirectly, becomes a flashpoint. For Intel and its peers, the challenge now is to navigate rising cost and innovation demands without compromising strategic autonomy something current U.S. policy still struggles to enforce with clarity.

Source: Reuters

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FXOpen

Forex

Commodity

On 27 November, we suggested that silver was preparing to challenge its all-time high. Since then (marked with the orange arrow), XAG/USD has risen by roughly 18%, breaking above the psychological $60-per-ounce threshold for the first time in history.

The rally has been driven by strong retail inflows into silver ETFs, alongside expectations of a structural supply deficit by 2026 due to robust industrial demand—particularly from solar energy, electric vehicles, and data-centre infrastructure.

The weakening of the US dollar following the Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday also helped lift dollar-denominated silver to a new historic peak near $64.

Technical Analysis of XAG/USD

A review of the XAG/USD chart shows that the price has been moving within a rising channel that encapsulates the uptrend beginning in early September.

Within this structure:→ the channel median acted as a springboard for price growth on 4 December;→ the line dividing the upper half of the channel into quarters switched from resistance (earlier in the month) to support on 10 December;→ silver is now trading near the channel's upper boundary, which may behave as significant resistance (as it did in mid-October).

Given these factors, the market may now be heavily overheated, leaving it vulnerable to a correction. Should this scenario begin to unfold, we could see a bearish break of the steep upward trajectory that has lifted silver by around 30% from the 21 November low.

Source: FXOpen

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IC Markets

Forex

Stocks

US Stocks Mixed After Fed – Dow up 1.3%

US equity markets were mixed overnight as investors continued to weigh the implications of the Fed's latest rate cut. The Dow led the way, jumping 1.34% to finish at 48,704, while the S&P 500 managed a modest 0.21% rise to 6,901, both securing fresh record closes. The Nasdaq, however, slipped 0.25% to 23,593 after tech heavyweight Oracle issued a weaker-than-expected forecast, reigniting concerns that parts of the AI sector may be running ahead of fundamentals.

In FX, the US dollar softened again, with the DXY easing 0.29% to 98.34, even as Treasury yields edged higher. The 2-year yield nudged up 0.3 bps to 3.541%, while the 10-year added 1 bp to 4.157%. Oil extended its recent decline, with Brent slipping 0.96% to $61.62 and WTI down 0.91% to $57.93, as markets drew optimism from renewed hopes for progress toward a Ukraine peace deal. Gold rallied strongly, climbing 1.06% to $4,278.85, supported by haven flows and momentum following yesterday's Fed decision.

Investor Glasses Still Half Full for Christmas Drinks

Major US indices pushed higher in trading yesterday to hit fresh all-time high closes as investors continued to cheer the Fed's interest rate cut on Wednesday and advice that we will see at least one more in 2026. The Dow and S&P hit records, while the Nasdaq fell marginally, which wasn't a bad result given an 11% drop for Oracle.

The market seems to be driving forward into the year-end with the same 'glass half full' mentality that has carried it to records in 2025, and investors are happy to jump on that bandwagon. However, there are some that fear a significant early-2026 hangover could be coming their way, with growth tech firms involved in AI looking to be the highest risk for some sharp corrections in the current environment – as we saw with Oracle yesterday. In addition to those fears, the Fed left plenty of wiggle room for hawks out there as well, despite the market's initial reaction to Wednesday's cut – so for now, investors are happy to eat, drink, and be merry while the good times last, but are wary that things can sometimes look different in the cold light of a fresh new day – or fresh new year!

Markets Strong into the Weekend

With the macro calendar far quieter today, traders may still see swings across markets as they continue to digest the heavy run of central bank updates and geopolitical developments from earlier in the week. The Asian session is expected to have a relatively quiet start to the day; however, with products trading at significant levels, traders are expecting things to liven up as the day progresses.

The European session sees the release of the only tier 1 data of the day, with the UK GDP numbers due out. The month-on-month figure is expected to show just a 0.1% increase, and any deviation from this will see big moves in the pound, anything lower likely to put more pressure on the Bank of England ahead of next week's interest rate call. There is little on the calendar in the New York session today, which should see smoother trading conditions; however, as above, with indices at all-time highs and the Fed update still fresh in investors' minds, most traders are expecting another lively session.