RBA's New Policy Board Comes With Added Unpredictability

Australian-listed lithium miners jumped early on Monday, after a major Chinese mine owned by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. suspended production, spurring hopes of wider output curbs as Beijing cracks down on overcapacity across the economy.The lithium industry has been struggling with a global supply glut and slower-than-expected electric-vehicle demand growth. Prices hit a record high in 2022 but have collapsed nearly 90% since them, forcing companies worldwide to rein in spending and delay expansions.

CATL has suspended production at its Jianxiawo mine in China’s Jiangxi province for at least three months, people familiar with the matter said at the weekend. The company’s mining permit for the project had expired on Aug. 9.Shares in PLS Ltd, formerly Pilbara Minerals Ltd., jumped as much as 19%, while Liontown Resources Ltd. surged as much as 22%. Mineral Resources Ltd. was up as much as 12%.

Traders and industry executives are now watching for other mining curbs around China’s Yichun city, which has emerged as a battery-metals hub. A local government department has asked eight miners to submit reserves reports by the end of September, according to notes from brokers and analysts, following an audit that found non-compliance in the registration and approvals process.

“Prices may deviate from reasonable levels in the short term, but CATL’s situation does not change the oversupply structure in the market,” said Zhang Weixin, an analyst at China Futures Co. “However, if production disruption is expanded to other mines in Yichun after Sept. 30, the lithium price level could go even higher.”Citigroup Inc. analysts said they also did not expect the suspension of production at the mine to result in a firm deficit, but said it would “bolster sentiment in the short term.”

Source: Bloomberg Europe

The UK jobs market weakened across the board in July as employers cut their payroll budgets in response to Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves’ £26 billion ($34.9 billion) tax increase, according a survey closely monitored by the Bank of England.

Starting salaries rose at the slowest pace in over four years — restrained by an increasing number of job-seekers chasing fewer vacancies, the poll by KPMG and the Recruitment and Employment Confederation showed. Demand for permanent staff contracted the most in five months.

The findings will pile further pressure on Reeves, who is accused of both stifling growth and fanning inflation by hiking employer social-security levies in April alongside another hefty increase in the minimum wage.

The downturn in the labor market allowed the BOE to reduce interest rates to a two-year low on Thursday but doubts are growing over whether officials can cut again this year as firms pass on higher costs to consumers.

The KPMG-REC survey is one of several private labor market readings being tracked by the BOE in the absence of reliable official statistics, which have been affected by a sharp decline in response rates.

Employers last month offered new joiners the smallest pay increases since early 2021, the poll of recruitment agencies found. Candidate numbers were swollen by recent firings and workers trying to flee jobs at risk of being cut.

At the same time, vacancies for permanent work dropped at the fastest pace since February, with companies citing higher payroll costs, proposed stricter employment laws and fears of further tax increases in the budget later this year. The decline in hiring was pronounced in the labor-intensive retail and hospitality sectors.

“Many firms will continue to pause major investment decisions until there is greater clarity in the autumn,” said Jon Holt, group chief executive at KPMG UK.

The survey chimes with a separate report from the Chartered Institute of Personnel Development showing that only 57% of private-sector employers plan to hire staff in the next three months, down from 65% in autumn 2024.

Policymakers will get a fresh read of the labor market when the latest official unemployment data are published on Tuesday. The jobless rate is expected to remain at a four-year high of 4.7% in the three months through June, according to economists surveyed Bloomberg. The BOE expects it peak at just under 5% this year.

Officials are closely watching for signs that weaker demand for staff is translating into cooler pay growth, a key indicator of underlying price pressures.

After cutting interest rates for a fifth time, they are now shifting their focus to a resurgence in inflation that is expected to peak at 4% in September. Although the increase is being driven by volatile food and energy, it risks feeding wage demands that in turn push up prices.

Recruiters surveyed by REC said pay pressures for permanent postings eased across most UK regions except for the North of England. Wage inflation for temporary jobs, which have been less affected by the increase in national insurance contributions, also slowed to a five-month low.

“Economic uncertainty, the complexities of AI adoption and global headwinds are all weighing on business planning,” Holt said.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

Eight people were killed and two others were injured in a shooting outside a nightclub in southwestern Ecuador, police said Sunday.Police Colonel Javier Chango told a press conference that seven people died at the scene, and another died in the hospital.The attack took place in Santa Lucia, a town with a population of 38,000 in the Guayas — one of the four provinces under a two-month state of emergency decreed earlier this week by President Daniel Noboa to combat gang violence.

What else do we know about the shooting?

Chango explained that the gunmen arrived in two pickup trucks and opened fire on the crowd drinking outside the Napoles nightclub at 1:15 am local time (0615 GMT).After the attack, they fled along an "unknown route," Chango said. Police also found 800 cartridge cases at the scene.Among the dead was the nightclub owner Jorge Urquizo, the brother of Santa Lucia's mayor.The police have not determined a motive for the shooting."We are open to all hypotheses; we can't rule any out yet," said Chango.

Ecuador closed the first half of 2025 with 4,619 homicides — a 47% increase compared to the same period last year.

Source: DW

Key Points:

US National Debt and Its Implications

The United States has hit a record-breaking national debt of $37 trillion, with substantial increases linked to government spending and legislative changes as of August 2025.This surge threatens financial stability and could influence safe-haven asset flows, impacting cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH, amid macroeconomic concerns worldwide.The US national debt reached an unprecedented $36.99 trillion as of August 2025, nearing the $37 trillion threshold. This rise is attributed to government spending and recent legislative measures.

Key figures driving this include the US Treasury and fiscal policies under President Trump. The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" has been noted to contribute significantly.Market impacts include rising interest payments, now surpassing Medicare and defense budgets. Macro stability concerns are heightened with these spending levels.The debt surge poses economic implications, with mounting challenges for long-term investments and potential effects on the crypto market. A nation saddled with debt will have less to invest in its own future.

Historical debt crises show potential for crypto as a financial hedge. Past trends suggest BTC and ETH may benefit from risk-off shifts.Future regulatory, economic, and technological shifts remain uncertain, but current trajectories suggest escalating debt burdens may pressurize government fiscal policies further.

Source: CryptoSlate

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the next leader of the Federal Reserve should be someone capable of taking a broad view of the institution beyond just interest rate adjustments, cautioning that the central bank’s growing range of duties could threaten its autonomy.

Speaking in Washington on August 7, Bessent described the qualities he believes the position demands. “It’s someone who has to have the confidence of the markets, the ability to analyze complex economic data,” he told the Japan’s Nikkei. He added that the next chair should be focused on future trends rather than relying too heavily on historical patterns.

According to Reuters, Bessent is leading efforts to choose a successor to current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term expires in May. The candidate list now includes an experienced economic adviser and a onetime head of a regional Federal Reserve Bank.

When asked about President Donald Trump’s repeated public calls for lower interest rates, Bessent said the president makes his position known, but stressed that “at the end of the day, the Fed is independent.”

Bessent outlines broader meaning of “strong dollar” policy

Regarding currency strategy, Bessent explained that his administration’s concept of a “strong dollar” isn’t linked to a specific number shown on markets, but to the dollar’s comparative position against other currencies. “The strong dollar policy is to have policies that continue to keep the U.S. dollar the reserve currency,” he said. “And if we have good economic policies, then the dollar will naturally be strong.”

Bessent has previously held talks on exchange rates with Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato. In May, during a G7 meeting, they concluded the dollar-yen exchange rate at that moment aligned with underlying fundamentals. In June, the Treasury Department informed Congress that the Bank of Japan should maintain its course of policy tightening, which it argued would help “normalize” the yen’s weakness.

Bessent said he believes that as long as the BOJ focuses on fundamentals such as inflation and growth, exchange rates will adjust on their own. He said Governor Kazuo Ueda and the BOJ board are aiming for an inflation target rather than a currency level.

The BOJ last year wrapped up a decade of large-scale stimulus and raised short-term interest rates to 0.5% in January, concluding that Japan was close to sustainably reaching its 2% inflation goal. Since then, policymakers have been cautious about further hikes.

Analysts point to this gradual pace as one factor behind the yen’s weak performance against major currencies. While inflation has stayed above the 2% target for more than three years, Ueda has urged careful review of how U.S. tariffs might affect Japan’s fragile economy.

List of potential Powell successors grows

There are now about 10 possible replacements for Powell. Among them are former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, now dean of Purdue University’s business school, and Marc Sumerlin, who served as an economic adviser to President George W. Bush. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, and current Fed Governor Christopher Waller are also being considered.

Trump has made clear he wants a chair willing to cut rates. Hassett, Warsh, and Waller have all indicated openness to lowering borrowing costs. Bullard said in May he believed the Fed could reduce rates by September. Sumerlin’s recent stances on monetary policy are not publicly known.

The president moved quickly to fill another Fed Board position this week after Governor Adriana Kugler resigned. Stephen Miran from the Council of Economic Advisers will finish her term, which ends January 31. Trump is also continuing his search for a nominee to fill the upcoming 14-year term starting February 1.

Source: CryptoSlate

The US expects to largely complete negotiations with countries that have yet to secure a trade deal by the end of October, Nikkei Asia reported, citing an interview with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

The comments, made to Nikkei on Thursday, come after President Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariffs took effect. Some key trading partners, including Canada, Mexico and Switzerland, are still seeking to secure more favorable terms with the US.

Bessent also reaffirmed the importance of the Federal Reserve’s independence but said the next central bank head should be someone “very attuned to forward thinking, as opposed to relying on historical data.” Trump has said he is eager to replace current Fed Chair Jerome Powell over their disagreement on interest-rate cuts.

The Treasury secretary is part of the search committee for a nominee to eventually replace current Powell.

Source: Bloomberg Europe