Putin Allows Visa-Free Entry For Chinese Citizens Into Russia

Political

Summary:

Russian President Putin signed an order to allow visa-free entry into the country for Chinese citizens as ties between the two nations continue to deepen.

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an order to allow visa-free entry into the country for Chinese citizens as ties between the two nations continue to deepen.

Chinese citizens will be able to enter the country for 30 days for business and tourism starting from Monday, according to the order, which was published on a government website. The measure runs until Sept. 14 next year. A few categories of travelers, including journalists and students, will still require visas under the order.

Putin in September said that Russia planned to take the step after Beijing allowed visa-free entry into China for Russian citizens with ordinary passports as part of a trial.

China previously announced plans to expand its unilateral visa-free entry scheme as it tries to rev up tourism. Meanwhile, the Kremlin's February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine has pushed Russia closer to China, which has remained an economic and diplomatic lifeline for Moscow.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Gerik

Economic

Stocks

Markets Enter December Cautiously After Volatile November

European equities kicked off the final month of 2025 on a weak note, with all major indices projected to open lower. According to IG data, the UK’s FTSE 100 was set to drop 0.26%, Germany’s DAX by 0.62%, France’s CAC 40 by 0.46%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB by 0.5%. This shift follows a choppy November that ended in positive territory for many markets, though concerns about overstretched valuations especially in the AI sector continued to cast doubt over long-term sustainability.

While last month’s volatility did not significantly erode market gains, investor caution remains prevalent as 2025 draws to a close. Much of this hesitancy is tied to both macroeconomic factors and global political developments that could affect market stability into 2026.

Rate Cut Expectations Dominate Monetary Policy Outlook

One key factor shaping sentiment is speculation surrounding the U.S. Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision. With the Fed meeting scheduled for December 9–10, traders are currently pricing in an 87.4% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. This expectation reflects a market consensus that the Fed may act preemptively to support the U.S. economy amid signs of slowing job growth and waning inflation.

However, the timing and scale of potential rate adjustments continue to divide analysts, introducing a degree of policy-related uncertainty that has spilled over into European markets. Although no major economic releases are expected from Europe at the start of the week, investors are likely to remain cautious in the absence of fresh catalysts.

Ukraine-Russia Peace Talks Add Geopolitical Risk Premium

European investors are also closely monitoring the high-stakes diplomatic developments surrounding the war in Ukraine. This week, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff is scheduled to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow for further discussions on a peace framework.

This follows recent confirmation that Ukraine has tentatively approved a U.S.-backed 19-point peace proposal an amended version of a previously confidential 28-point plan negotiated by the U.S. and Russia. The original draft appeared to lean toward Russian interests, prompting further diplomatic engagement. Over the weekend, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Ukrainian officials in Florida and described the talks as "very productive," while acknowledging that significant differences still need to be resolved.

These geopolitical negotiations inject additional volatility into investor sentiment. Although progress on a peace deal could ultimately reduce risk in European markets, the current lack of resolution keeps tensions elevated and market positioning cautious.

Global Market Context: Mixed Sentiment in Asia and the US

The mixed tone was reflected in other global markets. Asia-Pacific trading began December unevenly, reacting to new Chinese factory data indicating another contraction in manufacturing activity. This industrial weakness, as previously noted, suggests that any recovery in Chinese demand remains fragile and is unlikely to boost European exports meaningfully in the near term.

Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures remained largely flat on Sunday night after closing the previous week with solid gains. Wall Street continues to benefit from seasonal momentum December has historically delivered strong returns, with the S&P 500 averaging gains of over 1% in the final month of the year since 1950, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac. This seasonal trend may offer some indirect support to global risk appetite, but regional factors in Europe remain more dominant at present.

While Wall Street eyes a strong end to 2025, European markets have entered December weighed down by macroeconomic ambiguity and unresolved geopolitical risks. Investors are waiting for clarity from the Federal Reserve on interest rates and from diplomacy regarding Ukraine before committing further capital. With no major earnings or economic reports due from Europe at the start of the week, market momentum is likely to remain soft unless significant breakthroughs materialize on either front.

Source: CNBC

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Economic

Taiwan Seeks Lower Tariffs Amid Strategic Trade Negotiations

Taiwan has confirmed its objective of securing a reduction in tariffs on exports to the United States from the current 20% rate down to 15%, according to senior officials speaking in Taipei on Monday, December 1, 2025. The proposed tariff adjustment is part of broader trade talks with the Trump administration and aligns with Taiwan’s long-term strategic efforts to deepen its economic footprint in the United States through investment and technology cooperation.

Taiwan’s chief trade negotiator, Jenni Yang, reiterated the target during a parliamentary session, clarifying that while economic collaboration with the U.S. is advancing, direct commitments to train American workers are not a ceondition of the negotiations. This distinction reflects a carefully calibrated approach: offering technological and infrastructure expertise without being bound by politically sensitive labor training obligations.

The ‘Taiwan Model’ And US Industry Revitalization

Taiwan continues to position its development framework centered on semiconductor-driven science parks as a blueprint for U.S. industrial revival. This “Taiwan model” emphasizes innovation ecosystems and infrastructure clustering to stimulate advanced manufacturing. Although training U.S. workers has been discussed informally, Taiwan has stopped short of including such initiatives as formal bargaining chips.

Taiwanese Economy Minister Kung Ming-hsin acknowledged that if firms like TSMC require assistance with workforce development, such support can be discussed separately but is not currently embedded within the trade negotiation terms. This separation implies a distinction between firm-level operational needs and state-level policy conditions, emphasizing Taiwan’s intent to retain strategic autonomy in deal-making.

TSMC’s Expanding Investment and Tariff Exemptions

Central to the trade dialogue is the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which is building out a $165 billion manufacturing footprint in Arizona. TSMC’s substantial U.S. investment shields its exports from the 20% tariff imposed on many foreign goods. This exemption aligns with U.S. policy under President Donald Trump, who announced in August that semiconductor imports would face tariffs up to 100%, excluding companies manufacturing domestically or committing to do so.

This preferential treatment illustrates a strong causal link between localization of production and tariff exemptions, incentivizing foreign firms to invest onshore. It also highlights the geopolitical importance of semiconductor security and supply chain resilience in the bilateral relationship.

Uncertain Timelines and Political Leverage

While Yang expressed the Taiwanese government’s desire to finalize the trade pact by the end of 2025, no definitive timeline has been disclosed. The fluid nature of the negotiations subject to evolving U.S. policy stances and ongoing talks over worker training suggests that while progress is likely, details remain subject to high-level political shifts.

Recent reports by Reuters indicated that U.S. negotiators may request broader commitments, including workforce training and investment in other advanced industries. However, Taiwan appears cautious in binding itself to such obligations, possibly to avoid domestic backlash or overextension of its industrial policy abroad.

Taiwan’s pursuit of tariff reduction reflects a pragmatic trade strategy built on capital investment, knowledge transfer, and geopolitical alignment. While the U.S.-Taiwan economic relationship continues to deepen particularly in semiconductors Taiwan has deliberately kept workforce training commitments off the table in formal negotiations. This move signals its intent to focus on industrial contribution rather than direct labor engagement, preserving flexibility while leveraging its competitive advantage in technology. Whether the deal is finalized this year may depend more on the evolving priorities of the Trump administration than on Taiwan’s preparedness.

Source: Reuters

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Justin

Central Bank

Forex

The Bank of Thailand plans to roll out additional measures to ease appreciation pressure on the baht and tighten oversight of gold-related foreign-exchange transactions after the currency strengthened about 1% over the past week.

The local currency's gains were driven by a weaker US dollar and increased foreign exchange selling from exporters; bond inflows; and gold traders amid a more than 4% jump in global bullion prices, Pimpan Charoenkwan, assistant governor for the central bank's financial markets, said in a statement on Monday.

The central bank has proposed raising the limit on foreign income that companies can keep offshore. The change, expected to take effect by year-end, is aimed at giving firms more flexibility in managing foreign revenues while helping reduce upward pressure on the baht.

The Bank of Thailand is also tightening scrutiny of gold-related flows. Financial institutions have been instructed to adopt stricter due-diligence procedures before processing such transactions, while the central bank has recommended that the Ministry of Finance require large gold traders to report transaction data to improve monitoring and assess the impact on the currency, she said in the statement.

"Financial markets remain highly uncertain, and the Bank of Thailand will continue to closely monitor baht movements and stand ready to manage excessive volatility to limit the impact on businesses," Pimpan said.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Winkelmann

Forex

Economic

The EURUSD pair is rising amid pressure on the US dollar and growing expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve policy, currently trading at 1.1600.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

· Traders are now pricing in an 87.6% probability of a Fed rate cut at the upcoming meeting

· The market expects three more Fed rate cuts next year

· Dovish expectations for the Fed increase the likelihood of further EURUSD growth

· EURUSD forecast for 1 December 2025: 1.1660

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD exchange rate is strengthening for the sixth consecutive trading session. However, sellers continue to successfully defend the key resistance level at 1.1605, which has remained unbroken for four sessions.

The US dollar remains under pressure. Traders are pricing in an 87.6% probability that the Federal Reserve will deliver a final 25-basis-point rate cut of the year at the upcoming meeting. The market also expects three additional cuts next year.

Investors are reacting to reports that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett is being considered as the leading candidate to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair. Market participants believe such an appointment would align with President Donald Trump's preference for more accommodative monetary policy, increasing the likelihood of continued EURUSD upside.

EURUSD technical analysis

The EURUSD rate is rising slightly after breaking above the upper boundary of the corrective channel. Buyers keep prices above the EMA-65 line, confirming the dominance of bullish sentiment.

The EURUSD forecast for today suggests a minor bearish correction, after which renewed growth towards 1.1660 is expected. An additional signal in favour of further upside comes from the Stochastic Oscillator, with its signal lines turning down from overbought territory and approaching the support level.

A consolidation above 1.1615 will serve as a key indication of a fully resumed bullish impulse.

Summary

EURUSD technical analysis indicates sustained bullish momentum. Current expectations of a Fed rate cut and the potential appointment of a more dovish Fed chair increase pressure on the USD, supporting further upside potential in the pair towards 1.1660.

Source: RoboForex

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Gerik

Economic

Diverging Asian Market Sentiment Amid Weak Factory Reports

Asian stock markets entered December with no clear consensus, as investors absorbed new regional manufacturing data and shifting U.S. economic signals. Japan's Nikkei 225 plummeted by 1.9% to 49,285.66 after government data revealed disappointing corporate investment and ongoing manufacturing contraction. The S&P Global Japan Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.7 for November, slightly higher than October’s 48.2 but still firmly in contractionary territory. This marked the fifth consecutive month of decline, reinforcing the persistent weakness in Japan’s manufacturing base.

The subdued PMI data indicates that Japanese manufacturers are still struggling with fragile demand. According to S&P Global’s Annabel Fiddes, firms saw a “solid decline in new business,” revealing a strong relationship between faltering demand conditions and reduced factory output. This downward momentum aligns with the broader regional narrative of cooling production despite improving exports.

China’s Manufacturing and Trade Frictions Shape Sentiment

China’s own factory sector fared no better. Its official PMI data released over the weekend confirmed an eighth straight month of contraction in November, amplifying concerns about the country’s growth trajectory even as it continues a temporary trade truce with the U.S. The persistence of sub-50 readings across East Asia suggests that supply chain activity remains hindered, likely influenced by geopolitical pressures, weak internal consumption, and volatile global demand.

Despite this weakness, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index defied the trend and rose 0.8% to 26,068.05. In contrast, Shanghai’s Composite Index posted a smaller gain of 0.4%, while South Korea’s Kospi remained largely flat at 3,926.20. Australia’s ASX 200 declined 0.3%, and Taiwan’s Taiex lost 0.5%. India’s Sensex edged up by 0.3%, reflecting domestic optimism likely buoyed by retail trends.

Oil Prices Climb Sharply As Supply Concerns Resurface

Commodities offered a more bullish picture, with both U.S. benchmark crude and Brent crude rising $1.05 per barrel in early Monday trading. The price rise could be attributed to new supply constraints or geopolitical anxieties, although specifics were not detailed. This movement in oil markets may exert inflationary pressures if sustained, which would complicate central bank policy decisions heading into 2026.

U.S. futures were lower early Monday, with S&P 500 contracts down by nearly 0.7% and Dow futures falling 0.4%. This decline followed a Friday session marred by trading halts on major indices due to a data center outage at CME’s CyrusOne facility. Despite the glitch, the S&P 500 had closed 0.5% higher, the Dow rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.7% in the shortened post-Thanksgiving trading day.

Investors are still digesting signals from the Federal Reserve, which has already implemented two rate cuts in 2025 to counter a weakening job market. However, policymakers face a dilemma: while rate cuts could support economic activity, they also risk reigniting inflation, especially amid rising energy prices. According to the Fed’s October meeting minutes, internal divisions are deepening over the appropriate course of action.

Tech Sector Divergence Reflects Shifting Investor Sentiment

November saw wide variance in tech sector performance. While Nvidia dropped 1.8% on Friday and posted a double-digit monthly loss, other names like Oracle and Palantir fell 23% and 16% respectively during the month. On the other hand, Alphabet surged nearly 14% as enthusiasm grew over its Gemini AI release, showing how investor interest in artificial intelligence remains selective and volatile.

This dispersion indicates a correlation between tangible product rollouts and investor confidence, while companies without immediate breakthroughs may face stiffer selloffs. As AI-driven optimism remains a key theme, market momentum will likely continue to pivot around these announcements.

Retail and Consumer Spending Show Resilience Amid Uncertainty

The holiday shopping season added another layer to market dynamics. Early signals suggested stronger-than-expected consumer activity during Black Friday and Cyber Monday. This optimism, however, is counterbalanced by concerns over long-term U.S. economic health, employment softness, and monetary tightening.

Retail stocks reacted cautiously. Macy’s dipped 0.3%, Kohl’s rose 1.4%, and Dick’s Sporting Goods dropped 0.5%. Meanwhile, Abercrombie & Fitch climbed 2.9%, and American Eagle Outfitters gained 0.7%, hinting at mixed performance among specialty retailers.

Currency And Crypto Markets Reflect Cautious Mood

Currency markets were relatively subdued. The dollar slipped to 155.57 yen from 156.14, while the euro inched up to $1.1602. Bitcoin, however, experienced notable volatility, dropping 5.3% to $86,225. This sharp decline reflects speculative concerns amid broader risk-off sentiment in global markets.

The first trading day of December highlighted growing divergences across global markets. Asia’s manufacturing weakness, a lack of broad-based recovery in China, and uncertainties in Fed policy continue to constrain bullish momentum. Oil price gains and resilient retail spending offer short-term optimism, but the overall landscape remains fragile. Investors are likely to remain cautious ahead of key policy meetings and year-end economic data, with risk appetite sensitive to both geopolitical developments and macroeconomic signals.

Source: AP

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Gerik

Economic

Widening Manufacturing Contraction Signals Uneven Recovery

China’s manufacturing sector showed unexpected weakness in November 2025, with the private RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI sliding to 49.9, below the expected 50.5 mark and down from 50.6 in October. A PMI below 50 indicates a contraction in industrial activity. This marks the second consecutive month of deceleration and suggests that industrial momentum is losing steam in the world’s second-largest economy. The decline is particularly notable because the RatingDog-S&P Global survey generally portrays a more optimistic outlook than the official PMI, which already recorded an eighth straight month of contraction, coming in at 49.2.

The contraction is closely linked to sluggish domestic demand, as new business orders stagnated. Despite a mild surge in export orders the strongest in eight months the growth in production halted. This reveals a relationship where external demand offers short-term support, but internal market weakness overrides the broader recovery trend. Manufacturers responded by cutting staff and scaling back procurement, reflecting uncertainty in future orders.

Dampened Non-Manufacturing Performance Adds to Headwinds

In parallel, the official non-manufacturing PMI also slipped to 49.5 in November, marking its first contraction since December 2022. This suggests the economic malaise is not limited to factories but has spilled over into services and construction, notably weakened by ongoing distress in the property sector. Real estate and residential services continued to underperform, undermining one of the most significant pillars of China's domestic economy.

The persistent drag from real estate was evident in fixed-asset investment data. Investment fell by 1.7% in the first ten months of 2025, while October alone witnessed a steep year-on-year drop of 11.4%. Property-specific investment shrank by 14.7% for the same ten-month period, up from a 13.9% decline in the third quarter. This data shows a strongly correlated trend between falling fixed-asset investment and broader economic deceleration. The causal link appears to be the lack of policy stimulus translating into real investment growth.

Retail and Industrial Indicators Show Mixed Signals

While industrial output grew 4.9% year-on-year in October, the slowest pace since August, retail sales only climbed 2.9%, marking the fifth straight month of decline. The weakening of retail activity confirms that domestic consumption remains under significant strain. These figures suggest that the recovery is skewed toward supply-side resilience rather than broad-based demand revival.

Adding to the concerns, China’s exports in October fell 1.1% year-on-year the first decline in nearly two years despite previous front-loading of overseas shipments. This drop signifies more than a seasonal effect; it reflects declining global demand and the fading of short-term stockpiling efforts by foreign buyers.

Growth Forecast Faces Downward Pressure Despite Trade Truce

The broader implication is that China’s economic growth will likely dip below 4.5% in Q4, down from 4.8% in Q3, according to OCBC’s Tommy Xie. The decline appears to stem from a convergence of soft consumption, delayed infrastructure impact, and persisting property woes. The government’s efforts to stabilize growth, including anticipated policy directions from the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference, may be crucial to reversing the downtrend.

Meanwhile, geopolitical dynamics show signs of temporary easing. A trade détente was reached in late October between President Trump and Xi Jinping, with the U.S. agreeing to roll back certain tariffs and pause regulatory measures in exchange for China’s cooperation on fentanyl and rare earths. While this move reduces short-term policy uncertainty and may support export sentiment, it is unlikely to revive domestic demand in the near term.

Persistent Deflation Risk Despite Market Stability

Bank of America analysts noted that demand-side weaknesses could prolong deflationary pressures into 2026. Although equity markets reacted mildly positively with the CSI 300 up 0.36% and Hang Seng Index rising 0.74% these gains may be driven more by speculative sentiment than by fundamental economic improvements. The offshore yuan stabilized at 7.0711 against the dollar, indicating limited currency pressure but also no strong capital inflows to reinvigorate domestic sectors.

In sum, the data from November paints a cautious picture for China’s economic trajectory. While exports briefly buoyed optimism, the structural issues within domestic demand and investment remain deeply entrenched. Without a more forceful fiscal or monetary push, China may struggle to meet its 5% growth target in the coming year.