Powell Headed for Congressional Grilling Over Fed’s Rate Hold

Central Bank

Forex

Summary:

The Fed chair will testify before the House Financial Services Committee at 10 a.m. Tuesday, and at the same time on Wednesday before the Senate Banking Committee.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will have two chances this week to explain to lawmakers why he and most of his fellow policymakers seem resolved to continue holding interest rates steady at least until September, ignoring President Donald Trump’s persistent calls to lower borrowing costs.

The Fed chair will testify before the House Financial Services Committee at 10 a.m. Tuesday, and at the same time on Wednesday before the Senate Banking Committee. The appearances come less than a week after officials agreed to keep rates unchanged for a fourth consecutive meeting. They also follow the recent US attack on Iran, which escalated fears of surging oil prices and risks to the global economy.

Here’s what to listen for in his prepared remarks and in the question-and-answer sessions with lawmakers:

Rates, Economy

Look for Powell to carefully follow his message from last week, when he said the central bank was “well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy” before considering any move in interest rates.

“We’d like to get some more data, and again, in the meantime we can do that because the economy remains in solid condition,” Powell told reporters last week. “Ultimately the cost of the tariff has to be paid, and some of it will fall on the end consumer.”

So far, tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have not yet delivered the higher prices and higher unemployment that policymakers have warned about. Indeed, economists expect data this week will show the Fed’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation rose just 0.1% in May for a third month. That would mark the tamest three-month stretch since 2020.

Two Fed governors, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, have each said the impact from tariffs on prices is likely to be short-lived and they might support a rate cut in July.

“Powell seems to see little urgency to adopt a strong view on the likely course of inflation, and he seems to see a lot of risk to making the wrong assessment,” said James Egelhof, chief US economist at BNP Paribas.

Iran Conflict

Powell will almost certainly be queried about the potential economic impact of ongoing warfare between Israel and Iran. Over the weekend, the US joined the conflict directly, bombing Iranian nuclear facilities. So far, oil prices have not jumped dramatically on the news.

During his press conference last week, Powell was guarded in his comments on the conflict and the potential fallout.

“Of course we’re watching, like everybody else is, what’s going on,” he said. “It’s possible that we’ll see higher energy prices. What’s tended to happen is when there’s turmoil in the Middle East, you may see a spike in energy prices, but tends to come down. Those things don’t generally tend to have lasting effects on inflation.”

Political Pressure

Republican lawmakers are expected to press Powell for a clear justification for his wait-and-see posture. Some will almost surely take a less combative approach than Trump.

“Chairman Powell deserves credit for navigating some of the toughest terrain in modern history,” Dan Meuser of Pennsylvania, a House Financial Services member, posted on social media over the weekend. “But with inflation cooling and a strong labor market, the upside of lower rates is becoming hard to miss.”

But if other lawmakers take their cue from the president, Powell could face more serious fire. Trump’s most recent attacks have focused on the cost that interest rates impose on the federal government. He has also become increasingly personal, calling the Fed chair “truly one of the dumbest, and most destructive, people in Government.”

When he met with the president in May, Powell told Trump the Federal Open Market Committee’s decisions were based on “careful, objective, and non-political analysis,” according to the central bank. Expect more of that stoicism.

“He’s going to be totally unflappable,” Mark Gertler, an economics professor at New York University, predicted.

Powell might also hear words of encouragement from Democrats, who are likely to warn the central bank’s independence is being threatened by Republicans.

Banking regulation

Fed watchers will also have a chance to gauge Powell’s views on key regulatory changes currently in the works. The White House is pushing a deregulatory agenda — with several federal agencies working to ease rules. As part of that, Trump elevated Bowman — who has signaled her support for that effort — to the central bank’s top regulatory post.

On Monday, Bowman said it’s time to revisit a key capital buffer that some regulators and bankers believe has constrained lenders’ trading in the $29 trillion Treasuries market. Bloomberg has reported that the Fed, along with other regulators, will propose lowering the so-called enhanced supplementary leverage ratio, a rule introduced in 2008 forcing banks to hold a certain amount of capital relative to their assets.

Bank Reserves

Powell is also likely to field questions on a proposal floated recently by Republican Senator Ted Cruz of Texas to prohibit the Fed from paying interest on bank reserves. Cruz claimed the move would save $1.1 trillion over a decade, but several analysts argued it would imperil the Fed’s ability to control short-term interest rates.

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott blocked the proposal from being attached to Trump’s tax and spending package still working its way through Congress, but didn’t reject the idea outright.

Paying interest on reserves effectively prevents banks from lending at lower rates than the Fed wants, holding a floor under the overnight market.

Soure: Bloomberg

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