Petrobras Cuts Dividend, Investment Projections In New Five-year Business Plan

Stocks

Economic

Summary:

Brazilian state-run oil firm Petrobrashas lowered its dividend forecast and cut expected investments by almost 2% in a new five-year business plan announced Thursday, as it grapples with lower crude prices.

Petrobras expects to dole out between $45 billion and $50 billion during the 2026-2030 period in ordinary dividends, a filing showed. In its previous five-year plan to 2029, released last year, the firm had expected to give shareholders up to $55 billion.

There was no mention of extraordinary dividends in the new plan, while the previous one estimated up to $10 billion could be disbursed during the 2025-2029 period.

The cut in investments to $109 billion comes as Petrobras faces lower Brent oil prices, that it now expects to hover around $63 a barrel for next year, below the $77 estimate it had set for 2026 in the previous plan.

This marks the first drop in investments of the state-run firm under President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's current administration.

The last time investment was cut was the 2021-2025 plan, under former President Jair Bolsonaro's administration, when Petrobras was undergoing a series of divestments.

Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing sources, that Petrobras' expected investments were set to drop to around $109 billion in the new plan.

Since taking office, Lula has pushed the oil firm to invest more in order to boost the country's economy. Next year, the leftist leader is set to seek a fourth, non-consecutive term as president.

Despite lowering investments overall, Petrobras raised investments in exploration and production activities by about $1 billion to $78 billion for the period, while keeping refining, transportation and marketing investments at around $20 billion.

Petrobras also said it expects to reach peak oil production within the period of 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2028.

Peak total production within the plan's timeframe would be 3.4 million barrels of oil and gas equivalent per day (boed) in 2028 and 2029, based on annual projections with a margin of variation of plus or minus 4%.

Source: TradingView

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Gerik

Economic

A Familiar Threat Resurfaces in Crypto Markets

South Korea is once again confronting the specter of North Korean cyber aggression, this time through a high-profile hack targeting Upbit, the nation’s largest cryptocurrency exchange. The attack resulted in the unauthorized withdrawal of approximately 44.5 billion won ($30.4 million), raising immediate suspicion of the notorious Lazarus Group, widely believed to operate under the directive of Pyongyang’s intelligence apparatus.

The breach, described by Upbit as an "abnormal withdrawal," bears strong resemblance to the 2019 attack in which 58 billion won was stolen, an incident later attributed to the Lazarus Group. According to an unnamed South Korean government official quoted by Yonhap, the patterns and methods used in the recent hack reflect the same technical signature, indicating a strong likelihood of recurrence rather than coincidence.

This correlation between past and present incidents suggests a deliberate and sustained effort by Lazarus to exploit vulnerabilities in digital asset infrastructure, particularly in South Korea, where crypto adoption is widespread and digital exchanges remain lucrative targets.

Attribution and Strategic Implications

The Lazarus Group has long been identified by global intelligence and cybersecurity bodies, including the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation, as one of the most sophisticated persistent cyber threats emanating from North Korea. Their tactics typically include phishing campaigns, malware deployment, and exploiting exchange weaknesses to secure illicit funds, which are believed to be used to finance state operations in defiance of international sanctions.

The suspected involvement of Lazarus is not merely a legal issue it points to a deeper strategic pattern where North Korea leverages cybercrime to bypass economic isolation. While attribution remains under investigation, the South Korean National Police Agency has confirmed a formal probe, while the National Intelligence Service declined to provide details.

Corporate Ramifications: Dunamu and Naver Deal Overshadowed

The hack’s timing is particularly sensitive as it occurred just hours before South Korea’s tech conglomerate Naver announced its acquisition of Dunamu, Upbit’s operating company. This overlap raises questions about potential due diligence lapses or whether the attackers were strategically timing the breach to exploit transitional vulnerabilities.

While Dunamu has stated it is still investigating the scale and cause of the outflow, the reputational and operational impact is likely to be significant. It also underscores a causative link between security weaknesses in fintech infrastructure and investor confidence during corporate restructuring or acquisitions.

The Upbit hack is not an isolated incident but part of an escalating cyber threat landscape where state-backed actors use cryptocurrency platforms as both targets and tools for geopolitical objectives. For South Korea, the attack is a stark reminder that cyber resilience is not just a technical necessity but a national security priority. As investigations proceed, the incident will likely shape regulatory reforms, international cooperation on cybercrime, and strategic recalibration of how digital assets are defended against hostile state actors.

Source: Reuters

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Justin

Forex

Economic

The India rupee is poised to open weaker on Friday, with the imbalance between robust importer hedging and hesitant exporter flows making it vulnerable to a lifetime low and dependent on central bank support.

The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupeewill open in the 89.40-89.42 range versus the U.S. dollar, having settled at 89.3050 on Thursday, and within striking distance of last week's all-time low of 89.49.

The Reserve Bank of India stepped in heavily at the beginning of the week in a bid to break the cycle of weakness that threatened to deepen after last week's breakdown.

Its intervention briefly lifted the rupee back through the 89 handle, offering a short-lived reprieve. The relief, however, faded with persistent dollar demand from importers, hesitant exporter hedging and lacklustre portfolio flows eroding much of the RBI-spurred recovery.

The fact that the rupee is back under pressure despite the RBI's support is noteworthy considering the softness in the dollar.

The dollar indexis headed for its worst week in four months on mounting confidence that the Federal Reserve will deliver a third straight rate cut next month, a tailwind that would normally offer rupee some respite.

Fed funds futures now imply an 86% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut on December 10, up from about 40% just a week ago, according to the CME's FedWatch tool.

"You don't get this kind of this slow relentless push higher (on dollar/rupee) unless corporate flows are skewed and there is nothing to offset it," a currency trader at a private sector bank said.

For speculators, there's no macro trigger to chase USD/INR higher, he added.

Source: TradingView

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Gerik

Economic

Diplomatic Recalibration in East Asia

As tensions rise between China and Japan over Taiwan-related security discourse, Beijing has launched a diplomatic effort to draw international allies into its corner. This week, China’s top foreign affairs official, Wang Yi, initiated a strategic conversation with France in an attempt to secure support ahead of French President Emmanuel Macron’s upcoming state visit to China.

The diplomatic row began after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi made public remarks on November 7 that linked Japan’s national security to a Taiwan Strait contingency. Beijing interpreted this as an implicit endorsement of potential Japanese military involvement in a Taiwan-related conflict. Chinese officials condemned the comments as a breach of international norms and an affront to China's sovereignty, asserting a causal relationship between the statements and perceived threats to regional stability.

The Chinese Communist Party's flagship newspaper, People’s Daily, reinforced this view in an editorial that framed the comments as a "serious provocation." Beijing demanded a retraction, which Takaichi refused, instead reiterating Japan’s longstanding position of assessing each regional incident based on available intelligence and security needs.

Wang Yi’s Outreach to France

In a phone call with Emmanuel Bonne, the diplomatic adviser to the French president, Wang Yi urged mutual support between Beijing and Paris on matters concerning each country’s "core interests." He emphasized the need for France to uphold the one-China principle, a recurring condition in China’s international diplomacy, particularly when Taiwan is involved.

This appeal is significant given Macron’s scheduled visit to China next week, during which economic and commercial issues will dominate the agenda. Wang’s timing reveals a strategic intent to shape diplomatic perceptions prior to bilateral talks and reflects China's preference for multilateral leverage when dealing with disputes involving fellow G7 members.

UN Outreach and International Framing

China also attempted to internationalize its grievance by submitting a formal complaint to United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres. The letter accused Prime Minister Takaichi of violating international law and escalating tensions with comments that hinted at potential Japanese military engagement in a Taiwan crisis.

This reflects China’s effort to portray itself as the defender of international legal norms while framing Japan’s comments as escalatory. However, this move could also signal a desire to shift the diplomatic battleground from bilateral dialogues to global platforms, where China's interpretation of sovereignty issues tends to receive broader support from non-Western nations.

France's Role and Strategic Calculations

So far, France has not publicly responded to Beijing's statement. However, Japan and France reaffirmed their security cooperation just days earlier during a call between Takaichi and Macron on November 23. The two countries are progressing toward a Reciprocal Access Agreement to facilitate military cooperation, a development that implicitly challenges Beijing’s narrative.

This bilateral defense dialogue between Paris and Tokyo demonstrates a correlational pattern between shared democratic values and resistance to unilateral coercion in the Taiwan Strait. While it remains unclear whether France will publicly endorse China’s position, current defense agreements and diplomatic ties with Japan suggest limits to Beijing’s ability to reshape European perceptions on the issue.

China’s diplomatic maneuver to enlist France in its feud with Japan reveals the broader strategic stakes surrounding the Taiwan Strait. The episode illustrates how individual remarks by leaders can trigger wider geopolitical recalibrations and influence alignments among major powers. The effectiveness of China’s diplomatic outreach to France may hinge less on historical loyalty and more on strategic calculations linked to trade, security, and global standing factors that neither Beijing nor Paris can afford to navigate carelessly.

Source: Bloomberg

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Gerik

Economic

A Long-Awaited Legislative Breakthrough

After years of political stalemate, Australia has enacted a significant overhaul of its environmental protection laws. With support from the minority Greens party, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s government successfully passed reforms to the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999. The new legislation promises enhanced ecological safeguards while also addressing longstanding criticisms regarding inefficiencies in development approvals.

The original 1999 framework had long been criticised by both environmentalists and industry stakeholders for being outdated and overly complex. Environmental lawyer Claire Smith noted that despite its original intentions, the old law failed to effectively prevent environmental degradation. The newly enacted reforms aim to correct these shortcomings through stricter enforcement mechanisms and the establishment of a more streamlined governance structure.

Institutional Reforms and Enforcement Enhancements

A major institutional shift is the creation of a federal Environmental Protection Authority (EPA), designed to operate alongside existing state and territory-level agencies. This new national body will apply consistent environmental standards and oversee the approval of large-scale projects. In addition, stricter penalties have been introduced for violations affecting endangered species and other environmental harms, with fines now reaching up to A$825 million. This policy shift reflects a causal relationship between inadequate past enforcement and persistent biodiversity threats, which the new penalties aim to deter.

One of the core tensions addressed by the legislation lies in reconciling Australia’s reliance on mining, energy, and natural resource exports such as iron ore, coal, and liquefied natural gas with the imperative to protect its unique ecosystems. The revised law now mandates emissions disclosures for major developments, a move that aligns with global ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) trends. However, efforts by the Greens to include carbon-intensity assessments in project approvals were unsuccessful. This outcome highlights a correlation, not causation, between the emissions transparency requirement and the broader climate regulation landscape, which remains governed by separate legislation.

Economic Impacts and Growth Potential

Beyond ecological concerns, the government expects the new law to act as a catalyst for economic development. By accelerating the approval timeline for critical sectors particularly housing, renewable energy, and critical minerals the law is projected to generate up to A$7 billion in economic benefits. This estimate underscores a cause-effect relationship, where regulatory reform directly stimulates investment by reducing bureaucratic delays.

Australia’s landmark environmental reform signals a shift toward a dual-purpose policy framework: ensuring long-term environmental resilience while supporting economic ambitions. Though not all environmentalist demands were met, the new law introduces a more robust and future-facing legal infrastructure. Whether it can effectively reconcile the country’s ecological vulnerabilities with its economic aspirations will depend on the implementation rigor of the newly formed EPA and the responsiveness of industry stakeholders to these higher standards.

Source: Bloomberg

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Samantha Luan

Political

Commodity

Mexico's Attorney General Alejandro Gertz Manero resigned under pressure from President Claudia Sheinbaum, who had grown increasingly frustrated over his handling of high-profile investigations.

The Senate approved his resignation Thursday afternoon and announced that the next attorney general will be selected through an open contest allowing up to 10 candidates to compete for the job. People familiar with the matter said Ernestina Godoy, who served as Mexico City's prosecutor when Sheinbaum was mayor, has the president's support.

The president's office didn't immediately reply to a request for comment.

Sheinbaum's dissatisfaction with Gertz Manero deepened as her team considered his office responsible for leaking sensitive information related to a widening fuel-smuggling scandal known in Mexico as "huachicol fiscal," the people familiar added, requesting anonymity because they're not authorized to speak publicly.

The last straw was how the Attorney General's Office handled a probe into one of the owners of Mexico's Miss Universe franchise, Raul Rocha Cantu, who is facing allegations of smuggling fuels and weapons into the country as part of the "huachico fiscal" scheme.

Details of the investigation leaked to the press revealed Rocha Cantu's ties with state oil company Pemex and the father of the current Miss Universe winner, raising questions about the fairness of the competition.

Sheinbaum was displeased by media reports that the attorney general had offered criminal immunity to Rocha Cantu during the investigation, the people familiar said. She was particularly upset about the probe's impact on Miss Universe, a cherished event in Mexico, according to one of the people.

Speaking to reporters on Wednesday morning, the president said the investigation into Rocha Cantu's dealings should not overshadow the beauty queen's win.

"That's separate from the young woman who won the contest," Sheinbaum said. "They want to lump it together, but it's different. They want to take away her merit."

In his letter to the Senate, Gertz Manero justified his resignation by saying Sheinbaum offered him the position of ambassador to a "friendly country," without specifying which one.

The 86-year-old lawyer became Mexico's attorney general in 2019 after the position was revamped the previous year. He had three years left in his mandate. A former Mexico City prosecutor, federal security minister and congressman, he was appointed by former President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador — a move questioned by some within the ruling party given his roles in previous administrations and his age.

Gertz Manero's replacement marks the second major change in Sheinbaum's one-year-old administration after she appointed Edgar Amador as finance minister in March.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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MarketPulse by OANDA Group

Forex

Technical Analysis

While US Markets are away for the Thanksgiving holiday, leaving the broader session fairly calm, the FX markets remain open and active, with all eyes turning to the Kiwi Dollar (NZD), posting yet another strong session.

NZD/USD Posts Major Reversal Higher After RBNZ Cut_1

1-Day FX Performance – NZD demarks itself in the calm Thanksgiving Session – Source: Finviz

The Antipodean currency has faced its share of struggles this year, weighed down by a slowing New Zealand economy that proved more sensitive than its neighbor Australia to the slowdown in global trade post-tariffs—a weakness that was starkly evident in a terrible Q2 GDP growth rate of -0.9%.

However, after 325 basis points of cuts, the data has started to come back in a flash. New Zealand Retail Sales just posted a strong beat of 1.9% versus the 0.5% expected, a sign of strong recovery that follows stronger inflation prints and improving Manufacturing PMIs.

NZD/USD Posts Major Reversal Higher After RBNZ Cut_2

New Zealand's Main Interest Rate (OCR) since 2020 – Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Adding to the shift in sentiment, RBNZ Governor Christian Hawkesby mentioned that a future rate cut faces "significant hurdles."

This wording sufficed the market to assume that the 2.25% rate is the lower bound for the Kiwi rate, with markets now pricing rates to stay put throughout 2026.

This fundamental pivot is a clear sign of renewed strength for the NZD, which is up 2.65% against the US Dollar since last Friday.

Let's look at the major Kiwi pair, NZD/USD, to spot where that takes the action looking forward.

NZD/USD Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis

Daily Chart

NZD/USD Posts Major Reversal Higher After RBNZ Cut_3

NZD/USD Daily Chart, November 27, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Since July 1st and the comeback of the US Dollar, the NZD/USD has been in a one-way descent, exacerbated by diverging policies between the Fed and the RBNZ.

Taking the pair all the way down to a retest of the Liberation Day troughs in a Monthly Downward Channel, the action is now marking a first clear rebound in months.

Propulsed by changing fundamentals and bullish daily divergences, the ongoing action is strong and will face hurdles at the 50-Day Moving Average (0.57268) and Channel highs.

Still, when looking at how strong the current candles are, these hurdles could be breached soon. For confirmation, look at a session close above the 50-MA.

4H Chart and Technical Levels

NZD/USD Posts Major Reversal Higher After RBNZ Cut_4

NZD/USD 4H Chart, November 27, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The ongoing rally is also facing a few hurdles on the intraday timeframe:

Overbought RSI levels within the Pivot Zone (0.5720 to 0.5750) could trigger some small mean-reversion.

A retest of the 4H-MA 200 (0.5690) could see higher probability for the action to continue its path higher.

NZD/USD Technical Levels to keep on your charts:

Resistance levels (NZDUSD)

· Main Support turned Pivot 0.5720 to 0.5750 (testing)

· Daily highs 0.5730

· 0.58 Key Resistance

· 0.59 (+/- 150 pips) Resistance

Support levels

· 4H 200 MA at 0.5690

· October Rebound Support at 0.5660 to 0.57

· 4H 50-period MA 0.56385

· January 2025 Support 0.5650

1H Chart

NZD/USD Posts Major Reversal Higher After RBNZ Cut_5

NZD/USD 1H Chart, November 27, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Looking even closer, the action is strongly following the 20-Hour MA at 0.57140;

· A break below would point to a retest of the 4H MA 200 mentioned on the 4H Timeframe

· A break and close above the Daily highs (0.5730) will then face a 100-pip resistance to breakout of the Weekly bear Channel

· Above this, the next Resistance is 600 pips higher.

Source: MarketPulse by OANDA Group

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Petrobras Cuts Dividend, Investment Projections In New Five-year Business Plan

Source: TradingView

North Korea Suspected in $30 Million Hack of South Korea’s Largest Crypto Exchange Upbit

A Familiar Threat Resurfaces in Crypto Markets

Attribution and Strategic Implications

Corporate Ramifications: Dunamu and Naver Deal Overshadowed

Source: Reuters

Rupee At Risk Of All-time Low, Leans On Central Bank For Support

Source: TradingView

China Seeks French Support Amid Growing Diplomatic Rift with Japan

Diplomatic Recalibration in East Asia

Wang Yi’s Outreach to France

UN Outreach and International Framing

France's Role and Strategic Calculations

Source: Bloomberg

Australia’s New Environmental Law: Balancing Growth and Conservation

A Long-Awaited Legislative Breakthrough

Institutional Reforms and Enforcement Enhancements

Economic Impacts and Growth Potential

Source: Bloomberg

Sheinbaum Pushes Attorney General Out Amid Fuel Smuggling Probe

Source: Bloomberg Europe

NZD/USD Posts Major Reversal Higher After RBNZ Cut

1-Day FX Performance – NZD demarks itself in the calm Thanksgiving Session – Source: Finviz

New Zealand's Main Interest Rate (OCR) since 2020 – Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand

NZD/USD Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis

NZD/USD Daily Chart, November 27, 2025 – Source: TradingView

4H Chart and Technical Levels

NZD/USD 4H Chart, November 27, 2025 – Source: TradingView

1H Chart

NZD/USD 1H Chart, November 27, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Source: MarketPulse by OANDA Group

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