Outlook 2025: An Uphill Battle for Gender Parity in Financial Leadership

Economic

Summary:

Competing priorities are making DEI progress more difficult.

The business case for diversity in leadership in financial institutions has been well-documented: diverse leadership improves financial outcomes, reduces groupthink and is a better reflection of the society the institutions serve. However, translating this understanding into meaningful action is easier said than done.

OMFIF’s 2024 Gender Balance Index revealed a concerning pattern of missed opportunities. Of the 63 institutions with leadership transitions in 2023, only nine appointed women to top positions. While qualifications and merit are crucial considerations in these cases, the share of women in leadership – 14% – was the same as the share in the previous year, highlighting the glacial pace of change.

Building the pipeline

Throughout 2024, OMFIF events consistently emphasised the need to develop the talent pipeline in order to increase representation of female leaders. The rationale for this is straightforward: cultivating talent at lower levels creates a robust pool of qualified women candidates when leadership positions become available.

The 2024 GBI report shows some progress, with the share of women across all senior staff roles in the index increasing to 31% from 29% in 2022 – marking the first time this figure has exceeded 30%. But representation continues to thin at higher levels, dropping to 26% for deputy governor and C-suite positions, and falling to 16% in top leadership roles.

In a conversation with OMFIF, Jenny Johnson, president and chief executive officer at Franklin Templeton, noted ‘it all starts with building a strong pipeline of strong female talent’. She added that it is ‘important for us to foster an inclusive environment to ensure female employees are empowered and enabled to be promoted into management positions based on their skills and potential’. The dual focus – recruitment and retention – reflects a growing recognition that getting women through the door is only the first step.

Organisations have responded by implementing various initiatives, from mentorship programmes and recruitment quotas to inclusive leadership training. These efforts are increasingly complemented by national policies aimed at boosting female representation in leadership.

From policy to practice

Several jurisdictions have introduced policies mandating minimum levels of female representation, yet results remain mixed. Last year saw new initiatives in Japan, Australia and Hong Kong aimed at improving board representation in listed companies. These efforts were a positive step forward, particularly as Asia Pacific has historically had the lowest regional GBI score. Elsewhere, the European Commission and the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK both introduced measures to improve gender balance at the board level in companies in 2022.

However, the effectiveness of these policies remains to be fully seen and evaluated. In May 2024 the FCA paused its efforts on diversity and inclusion proposals set out in its 2023 consultation, citing process complexity.

Even in countries traditionally considered leaders in gender equality, meeting targets has proved challenging. In Norway, a law was introduced in 2023 to mandate no more than 60% of one gender on the board of directors for large companies. While many companies are rushing to comply, there have been some unexpected consequences, with some companies reducing board sizes to meet quotas rather than expanding female representation.

Finding the right balance between organisational and regulatory approaches remains complex, particularly in politically and economically turbulent times.

Navigating political headwinds

The path towards gender parity faces mounting obstacles. A tougher macroeconomic climate has pushed diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives down the priority list, as institutions focus on navigating economic instability. Additionally, policy uncertainty stemming from the number of leadership changes globally in the past year have contributed to the slowdown.

While political representation of women does not directly correlate with gender diversity in financial leadership, the political climate influences regulatory frameworks and policy implementation. Without sustained political will, even well-intentioned initiatives risk stalling.

This is perhaps most evident in the US where companies, including those in the financial sector, are witnessing a DEI retreat. While this rollback of diversity measures is not a new phenomenon, it has become increasingly visible in the lead up to and following the results of the November 2024 presidential election. Last year, several companies reduced diversity programmes, downsized inclusion teams and softened language in corporate reports. In December 2024, an attempt by Nasdaq’s US exchange to improve diversity of directors on the boards of companies was struck down by a federal appeals court, marking a further setback.

The financial sector now stands at a crossroads. 2025 could either solidify progress towards parity or witness a regression in representation. Success hinges on whether organisations can maintain a focus on gender equality amid competing priorities and external challenges.

The stakes are high, but the opportunity to foster meaningful change remains within reach – if the commitment to gender diversity endures.

Source: Arunima Sharan

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Damon

Economic

For decades, external voices have often narrated Africa’s economic story through a narrow lens of challenges: uneven growth, energy deficits, food insecurity, extreme poverty, mounting debt and stalled reforms. While these obstacles are undeniable, they overshadow a more compelling narrative of resilience, innovation and cautious hope.

In 2024, Africa’s economic and political importance grew significantly, laying a strong foundation for 2025 to be a transformative year for the continent. With headline economic growth reaching approximately 3.2%, Africa ranked among the fastest-growing regions globally. The continent has been addressing critical issues such as climate change, supply chain disruptions and energy transitions by embracing localised and innovative solutions. At the same time, Africa is proactively reshaping its economic identity, positioning itself as a key player in global trade, finance and sustainability efforts.

Africa’s vast renewable energy potential, including solar and wind resources, mineral wealth such as lithium and cobalt, and untapped markets in agriculture and technology, make it indispensable to global efforts towards climate resilience and economic growth. Africa’s demographic advantage is also unmatched. By 2050, the continent will house the world’s largest working-age population, thus instilling a sense of optimism about Africa’s future.

Private sector interest

Africa’s increasing economic appeal is evident in the private sector’s growing interest in the continent. Multinational corporations, financial institutions and venture capital firms recognise the vast opportunities presented by Africa’s resource wealth, expanding markets and consumer demand. This private sector momentum can be expected to accelerate in 2025.

Key sectors, such as renewable energy, technology and financial services, attract healthy investor interest. Companies like TotalEnergies and Enel Green Power are scaling up green energy projects, while global financial giants like JP Morgan Chase and Mastercard are establishing a more substantial presence. Africa’s fintech ecosystem, now valued at over $3bn, has emerged as a hub for innovation, with startups successfully drawing funding from continental and international investors. These trends reflect growing confidence in Africa’s capacity to deliver returns on investment.

Unlocking growth potential amid challenges

To realise its potential in 2025, Africa must tackle entrenched structural constraints, including fragmented regulatory frameworks, an underdeveloped financial sector, inadequate infrastructure and the burden of unsustainable debt levels.

Operationalisation of the African Continental Free Trade Area is poised to be a game-changer. By establishing the world’s largest free trade area by member countries, AfCFTA promises a unified market for goods and services, unlocking regional integration and paving the way for financial harmonisation. The Pan-African Payment and Settlement System, a critical enabler under AfCFTA, is maturing rapidly. It is already facilitating cross-border transactions in local currencies, reducing reliance on foreign exchange reserves and lowering transaction costs. This innovation is particularly impactful in the growing fintech and sustainable finance sectors, where cost efficiency and accessibility are paramount.

Africa’s capital markets are also witnessing notable progress. Egypt and Nigeria have successfully issued green bonds, attracting billions in investments from global investors prioritising sustainability. These efforts signal the continent’s growing ability to align with international trends in sustainable finance. Meanwhile, initiatives to integrate stock exchanges in Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa are improving market liquidity, reducing investment barriers and fostering regional co-operation.

Banks are equally instrumental in driving growth and resilience. Institutions such as Access Bank Group and Standard Bank are scaling operations across the continent, providing much-needed credit to small- and medium-sized enterprises. Since SMEs account for up to 90% of businesses and contribute significantly to African employment, this support is crucial for job creation and economic diversification. These developments reflect Africa’s increasing capacity to navigate challenges and build a robust financial ecosystem.

Africa’s digital transformation

Collaborative ecosystems will be crucial in 2025, and the digitalisation of financial systems is instrumental in fostering these ecosystems. Platforms such as Flutterwave, M-Pesa and Chipper Cash are driving the fintech revolution. These platforms facilitate seamless payments, expand credit access and enable financial inclusion, especially in underserved rural areas.

Collaborative public-private partnerships are also addressing infrastructure and connectivity gaps. For example, US-backed programmes aim to connect millions of farmers and SMEs to the digital economy, highlighting the importance of integrated solutions over siloed approaches.

G20 leadership and global partnerships

In 2024, Africa solidified its position at the forefront of global climate efforts, becoming a pivotal voice in shaping the sustainability agenda. South Africa’s G20 presidency in 2025 now provides an opportunity to amplify Africa’s influence on the international stage. Among its key priorities is establishing a Global Cost-of-Living Commission to address the skyrocketing food and energy prices – issues disproportionately affecting vulnerable economies. This initiative could provide a much-needed lifeline to nations grappling with external shocks, including inflation, supply chain disruptions and the economic fallout of climate change. The presidency also underscores Africa’s call for more equitable financial governance in institutions like the International Monetary Fund and World Bank to increase voting rights and representation for African countries.

Partnerships with developed nations are evolving from aid dependency towards investment-driven collaborations. The replenishment of multilateral funds such as the International Development Association and the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust offers critical support for Africa’s development trajectory. These mechanisms are set to finance vital infrastructure projects, bolster climate resilience initiatives and underpin social development programmes, ensuring the continent is better equipped to navigate persistent challenges while capitalising on emerging opportunities.

Strategic initiatives like Italy’s Mattei Plan – which advocates for equitable and sustainable partnerships between Europe and Africa – highlight the growing recognition of Africa’s global importance. This plan emphasises energy, sustainability and development investments rather than resource extraction, signalling a shift towards mutual benefit and long-term co-operation.

Furthermore, commitments from key partners, including China’s Belt and Road Initiative, South Korea’s technology transfer programmes and the European Union’s Global Gateway strategy, emphasise Africa’s rising geopolitical and economic significance. Brics nations have also demonstrated their support for Africa’s growth through enhanced trade agreements, capacity-building programmes and the establishment of the New Development Bank, which increasingly focuses on funding African development priorities.

With strategic leadership and well-aligned partnerships, Africa’s role in global economic and governance frameworks is poised for significant advancement in 2025. This is an opportunity for the continent to address its immediate challenges and a moment to shape a more equitable and sustainable global order.

Action points for Africa’s financial leadership

To solidify its position in global finance, Africa must prioritise actionable strategies across three key domains: strengthening its financial sector, fostering continent-wide partnerships, and advancing systemic reforms at the regional and global levels. These efforts will build resilience and position Africa as a proactive agent in shaping its economic future.

First, enhancing the efficiency and inclusivity of Africa’s financial sector is critical. The continent’s financial industry benefits from increased competition by encouraging diverse service providers, such as fintech startups and non-bank financial institutions, to challenge traditional banking models. Expanding access to digital financial services – such as mobile banking, e-wallets and digital payment platforms – can empower underserved populations, especially in rural areas, while stimulating grassroots economic activity. Notably, mobile money services like M-Pesa have already demonstrated their transformative potential. Complementing these efforts with financial literacy campaigns and consumer protection frameworks will build trust, safeguard users and reinforce the system’s resilience against shocks.

Second, partnerships must transition into strategic, outcome-driven collaborations. Public-private partnerships should focus on bridging critical infrastructure and digital connectivity gaps, emphasising integrating rural and underserved areas into the broader economy. For example, initiatives like the African Union’s Digital Transformation Strategy 2030 can be blueprints for leveraging connectivity to unlock economic growth. At the same time, intra-continental mechanisms like the AfCFTA and the PAPSS must be fully operationalised to harmonise markets, reduce trade barriers and facilitate seamless cross-border commerce. Partnerships with global stakeholders can further catalyse funding for transformative infrastructure projects, renewable energy initiatives and digital inclusion programmes.

Finally, systemic reforms are essential to address the continent’s structural challenges. Regional coordination on key issues, such as debt sustainability and financial governance, is crucial. Many African nations grapple with unsustainable debt levels, requiring innovative debt restructuring mechanisms and sound fiscal and monetary policies to alleviate financial strain. On the global stage, Africa must intensify its push for equitable representation in international financial institutions like the IMF and World Bank. Securing greater voting rights and influencing global policy decisions will ensure that Africa’s specific priorities – such as climate finance and development funding – are adequately addressed.

By uniting around these priorities, Africa can become a cornerstone of international economic and climate strategies. Bold, coordinated action will turn aspirations into tangible achievements, positioning 2025 as a year of transformation and leadership. The narrative is shifting, and Africa’s time to lead has arrived.

Source:Udaibir Das

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Damon

Economic

Global public investors are increasingly recognising the risks associated with climate change and are exploring portfolio strategies to support the decommissioning of dirtier industries. To do this, it is crucial they implement clear and credible transition plans.

In ‘Global public funds and transition finance’, OMFIF spoke with public investors to uncover the opportunities, risks and challenges in the decarbonisation drive. The report, which launched at COP29 in Baku in November, is based on the conversations of the Transition Finance Working Group, featuring public pension and sovereign funds with a combined £5tn in assets under management.

One fund interviewed for the report stated that asset owners need to understand ‘what the decarbonisation levers are, what the abatement costs are. Being able to develop that map curve is really important for the next five or so years.’

Despite this, the majority of asset owners do not yet track the transition plans of the companies they invest in. An asset owner declared that ‘most listed companies have transition plans but the ones with credible plans are few’. As funds implement net-zero targets and portfolio transition strategies, establishing assessment processes to measure and benchmark their supply chain activities is essential.

Barriers persist

One fund noted that evaluating the efficacy and the financial viability of transition plans is challenging due to divergence in approaches across sectors and jurisdictions. Another fund observed that, ‘for some of the generation facilities, especially in the US, the transition plan in the next 10 years isn’t really there’. This contributes to the lack of timely and reliable data, which remains a barrier to developing credible transition plans.

There are conflicting dynamics between government approaches and investors’ transition plans. ‘Countries whose economies will be 30% of global gross domestic product in 2050 admitted that they wouldn’t be able to reach net zero until between 2060 and 2070,’ said one fund. ‘So, to be an institutional investor and reach net zero by 2050, you either need there to be an aggressive increase of ambition in nationally determined contributions or an implicit commitment to divest probably 50% of the world’s assets by 2050.’

It is clear that the current policy environment is not aligned with market outcomes. For there to be meaningful progress in 2025, policy-makers need to provide more clarity and incentives for stakeholders to invest in the transition.

What needs to change?

Consistency in reporting questions and survey models would enable the investor community to meet disclosure requirements. Guidelines can help stakeholders in understanding transition opportunities. Global public investors are engaging with stakeholders and supply chains to begin decarbonisation, and some have taken active steps to invest in and decommission dirtier industries. However, there is a need for criteria and guidelines for shareholders, clients and risk managers to aid in understanding what a transition investment is and how asset ownership is taking place.

‘I think if you could come up with a way to certify that this is a transition investment and have high conviction it will deliver the absolute emissions reductions, hopefully institutions could go to their stakeholders and say: “I’m planning to put 25% of my balance sheet into things that are grey, that are headline level.” We’re only going to do these where our partners have high conviction in the ability to decarbonise. But at the moment that would require hundreds of institutions to be reneging upon commitments,’ said one fund.

Consistent standards and an incentivising policy environment will play important roles in ensuring the financial market transitions, and huge strides have been made in this regard. However, there is a fine line between the need for standards, criteria and metrics to support transition and an overbearing proliferation of frameworks that do not account for varying capacity and needs. Clearer definition on transition investments and funds is evidently needed, and guidance on how to manage asset ownership would help global public investors to unlock opportunities in the transition.

In OMFIF’s conversations with public investors, the International Sustainability Standards Board received a ringing endorsement as the preferred body to drive interoperability and consistency. As we go into 2025, let us hope that authorities across jurisdictions and industries listen and adopt ISSB across the economy.

Source: Emma McGarthy

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Damon

Economic

A combination of factors will result in spreads continuing to widen well into 2025 for the European public sector bond market. These include high supply, geopolitical risk, political uncertainty and the end of the European Central Bank’s quantitative tightening programme.

At an OMFIF event hosted in partnership with LBBW, funding officials and fixed-income portfolio managers examined the outlook for European sovereign, supranational and agency borrowers for the year ahead.

A senior syndicate banker described 2024 as ‘a bit of a challenge because everyone tried to be front loaded with the US election and a lot of events going on throughout the year’, noting that ‘nobody expected the outcome of the European elections and the volatility around France’.

‘When the year progressed, we had situations where the less liquid names, their secondary curves simply traded at levels where they could never issue transactions,’ said the banker. ‘Even the liquid issuers who had bonds outstanding from five years ago at maturities of 15 or 20 years, you couldn’t get bonds at these levels.’

This has left a serious amount of uncertainty in the market. ‘We see that there is a resistance from investors buying into this asset class at the moment, not because they don’t like the spreads and they have a completely different view on where they should be, but because they are afraid that the widening continues,’ said the banker. ‘For example, if you buy something now, which is 10 basis points wider in six weeks, then you better buy in six weeks, and not now.’

The widening of spreads in the European SSA market offers a sharp contrast to the credit market where spreads are tightening despite elevated levels of supply.

The syndicate banker expects this to continue this year: ‘We will have a similar scenario in that, when you speak to investors, they expect spreads to widen at least until Q2,’ said the syndicate banker. ‘Supply will be similar or slightly higher, but with QT having completely ended.’

However, the expectation is that, if the first few deals of 2025 show a strong market environment, there will be room for some tightening. But this will against a backdrop of a number of key political events such as the inauguration of Donald Trump as US president and the German federal elections in February, which may easily derail sentiment. Issues in France will also be closely watched as they could have wider repercussions for the market.

A ‘juicy’ opportunity

For some investors, the widening spreads offers an opportunity. ‘We started picking up bonds that you would get for mid-swaps plus 5bp at around plus 10 in the summer of 2023, which for us, was – excuse the term – very juicy,’ said a fixed-income portfolio manager. ‘So we jumped into these bonds. But the euro primary bonds that came after the summer were actually wider. Then by the beginning of 2024 we were at mid-swaps plus 20bp in the primary market for 10-year bonds and right now we are in the 30s.’

The portfolio manager said his firm has ‘a very high risk appetite towards supras in general, but especially European ones,’ which are among its highest allocations.

He was confident about his firm’s position going into 2025, but was sanguine about the risk entailed: ‘Unfortunately, all the funding needs that Europe has to face plus the geopolitical risks will lead to a widening of credit spreads. But we don’t look at it from a negative point of view, rather the opposite. We are spread takers.’

If liquidity remains good in the European SSA market, then that is enough for some investors to continue buying despite widening spreads.

Source：Burhan Khadbai

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Manuel

Commodity

Central Bank

Federal Reserve officials are expected to leave interest rates steady this week, giving themselves more time to lower inflation, the break in rate cuts would come after three straight reductions since September that lowered the Fed’s benchmark rate by a full percentage point. Their target range is now 4.25% to 4.5%.

Several policymakers have said they expect fewer rate reductions this year following data showing the US economy is on sturdy ground and that inflation has been stickier than anticipated. December data for the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index, is due Friday.

Still, after a string of surprising data and uncertainty over how the US economy might respond to an array of bold new policies from Trump on trade, taxation, immigration and regulation, officials are unlikely to commit to any particular rate path.

“They’re skipping a rate cut,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist for EY. “But they want to retain as much optionality as possible to adjust the fed funds rate further through the year.”

The Fed’s rate decision will be released at 2 p.m. in Washington on Wednesday and Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a post-meeting press conference 30 minutes later. Fed to Hold Rates Steady and Brace for Trump_1

Fed to Hold Rates Steady and Brace for Trump_1

Future Adjustments

Fed watchers don’t expect the Federal Open Market Committee to make many changes to their post-meeting statement. The current wording referring to the “extent and timing of additional adjustments” already gives policymakers flexibility to change their approach, as needed, based on what happens with the economy, said Daco.

Powell will almost certainly be pressed by reporters over how he and his colleagues are factoring Trump’s policies and proposed plans into their outlooks for the economy. Fed officials are not due to release updated forecasts until their March policy meeting.

But minutes from the December gathering showed “a number” of participants included placeholder assumptions about Trump’s potential plans in their economic projections and “almost all participants” said the upside risks to inflation had increased.

According to Daco, investors also want to hear more from Powell on the so-called “neutral rate,” or the level at which the Fed is neither juicing nor cooling the economy. Officials have been raising their estimates for neutral over the past year. If many policymakers believe interest rates are near that point, it suggests not only a slower pace of reductions ahead, but fewer total cuts as well.

Reporters will likely ask the Fed chief for more clarity on what officials will need to see before they lower rates again, and, conversely, what could force them to consider a rate increase. After a blockbuster December jobs report, economists at Bank of America Corp. said they believed the central bank’s next move might be a hike.

Such worries eased, however, after a key gauge of consumer prices — which excludes food and energy — rose by less than expected in December, marking the first step down in six months. Policymakers welcomed the report but said they still have more work to do to get inflation down to their 2% target.

Political Pressure

Powell may also be asked to respond to Trump’s latest jabs at the central bank.

“I think I know interest rates much better than they do, and I think I know it certainly much better than the one who’s primarily in charge of making that decision,” Trump said Jan. 23, in an apparent reference to Powell.

Powell has in the past deflected or ignored Trump’s comments on monetary policy but the remarks, coming in Trump’s first week back in office, suggest the Fed chief could face more pressure than ever before from the new administration.

“The Fed will likely have to deal with Trump’s efforts to influence monetary policy, both through appointments and potentially through other efforts to exert more sway on the institution,” Michael Feroli, chief US economist for JPMorgan Chase & Co., wrote in an email note Friday. He predicted this week’s meeting will be “a boring start to a tumultuous year for the Fed.”

Source: Bloomberg

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Adam

Stocks

Economic

The Largest One-Day Market Cap Loss in U.S. History

Nvidia’s dramatic stock plunge marks the largest single-day market value loss ever recorded in U.S. history, surpassing all previous declines by a wide margin. The company’s shares fell 17%, erasing $600 billion in market capitalization and dragging the Nasdaq index down by 3.1%. This sharp downturn occurred mere days after Nvidia overtook Apple to become the world’s most valuable company.

The impact extended beyond Nvidia, with shares of other semiconductor and data center firms such as Broadcom, Dell, and Oracle also taking heavy hits. Broadcom’s stock fell 17%, erasing $200 billion in market value, while Dell and Hewlett Packard Enterprise saw declines of 5.8% or more.

DeepSeek: A Major Competitive Threat

The selloff was largely driven by the rise of DeepSeek, a Chinese tech company whose AI advancements are challenging Nvidia’s dominance. DeepSeek recently unveiled its R1 model, an open-source AI system that has reportedly outperformed OpenAI in several benchmarks. Its mobile application, powered by advanced AI, has quickly become the most downloaded productivity app on both the Apple App Store and Google Play in the U.S.

What makes DeepSeek particularly disruptive is its cost efficiency. Its first AI language model, launched in late December 2024, was developed for less than $6 million and used Nvidia’s H800 chips—lower-performance versions designed to navigate export restrictions. This highlights DeepSeek’s ability to deliver cutting-edge AI solutions at a fraction of the cost typically required by Silicon Valley firms.

Market Sensitivity to GPU Demand

Nvidia’s dominance in the AI chip market has been built on its GPUs, which are widely used by tech giants like Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon for training and running AI models. However, analysts at Cantor raised concerns that DeepSeek’s technology could signal a peak in GPU demand. Although they acknowledged that AI advancements would likely drive long-term growth in computational needs, the immediate market reaction reflected heightened sensitivity to any indication of reduced spending on GPUs.

The concerns are compounded by Nvidia’s soaring stock performance in recent years, with gains of 239% in 2023 and 171% in 2024. This meteoric rise left the market highly reactive to any potential shifts in demand, as evidenced by the sharp selloff.

Wider Implications for Silicon Valley

The ripple effects of Nvidia’s downturn were felt across Silicon Valley, particularly among companies heavily reliant on Nvidia’s GPUs. Firms like Super Micro Computer and Oracle saw significant losses, with the latter dropping 14% despite being part of a new AI initiative under President Donald Trump.

For Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, the fallout was equally severe. His net worth plunged by $21 billion, dropping him to 17th place on Forbes’ list of the world’s richest individuals. Nvidia’s loss also dwarfed the market capitalizations of major companies like Coca-Cola and Chevron, underscoring the magnitude of the selloff.

DeepSeek’s Role in Reshaping the AI Landscape

DeepSeek’s emergence highlights a shift in the AI landscape, where cost-effective innovations are beginning to challenge established leaders. Its rapid success with the R1 model and integration of AI into widely accessible applications suggest a democratization of AI technology.

This development could force Nvidia and other industry leaders to rethink their strategies, focusing on cost efficiency and adaptability in the face of rising competition. The competition from DeepSeek also underscores the growing global nature of AI innovation, with China positioning itself as a formidable player in the field.

A Wake-Up Call for Silicon Valley

Nvidia’s $600 billion market cap loss serves as a stark reminder of the volatility and competition in the tech industry. While Nvidia remains a leader in AI and GPU technology, the emergence of challengers like DeepSeek signals a more competitive and cost-conscious future for the sector.

As the market adjusts to these new dynamics, the focus will likely shift to how companies adapt to evolving demand, maintain their competitive edge, and navigate the growing influence of global competitors in the AI space. Nvidia’s historic loss may ultimately catalyze a period of introspection and innovation across Silicon Valley.

Source: CNBC

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Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin (BTC) is gradually returning to whale wallets following the latest market downturn and liquidations. The most recent rounds of accumulation happen at a time when BTC is once again sliding and threatening to break below $100,000. BTC traded at $101,180.00 following the most recent market correction.

Recently, over 20K BTC flowed back into whale addresses, especially known wallets associated with accumulation. Based on Cryptoquant data, the accumulation is spread across several days, suggesting a gradual buying plan. Accumulation addresses are those that have received two consecutive inflow transactions that are not dust and have not spent their reserves. Inflows into those addresses are now more significant on a daily basis, with the occasional peak day of buying. Whales are Accumulating and Most are bringing Bitcoin to the USA_1

Whales are Accumulating and Most are bringing Bitcoin to the USA_1

The recent sideways movement of BTC around $100,000 is creating similar conditions to the summer of 2024 when whales could shake down panicking traders for months. This time around, accumulation is more active, with almost daily inflows into accumulation addresses.

In total, accumulation addresses carry more than $2.7B. The address metric may be inexact, as it would count both miners, whales, and retail. However, the trend has become more significant lately, reflecting the growing demand for owning and controlling BTC in a self-custodial wallet.

The most rapid expansion is observed in wallets holding over 100 BTC, with nearly 2,000 new addresses in January. At the same time, the holdings of whales with over 10,000 BTC are gradually decreasing, or moving to smaller wallets.

For now, the market has not seen capitulation or a deeper drawdown, but whales are still buying during favorable days of lower prices. The recent volatility ahead of the monthly futures expiration event brings additional buying opportunities. The accumulation behavior coincides with the Rainbow chart stage, which suggests the BTC rally is not yet over.

Bitcoin buyers are also ‘Made in USA’

The most recent accumulation reflects the crypto optimism in the USA. More significant capital available, along with expectations of an ongoing bull market, are turning BTC into a US-owned coin. The trend extends the inflow of funds into ‘Made in USA’ crypto, which is now valued at over $529B in total market capitalization.

The ownership ratio of the USA to the rest of the world is at the highest level since before the 2022 market crash. Currently, the ratio stands at 1.61, compared to a total peak in 2022 at 1.86, when the metric started getting tracked.

US buyers became more active in the last quarter of 2024, extending the trend into the new year. | Source: Cryptoquant

The high accumulation for US-based investors tracks the general trend of peak trading during US market hours. A high level of the metric has correlated with previous bull markets, where BTC was becoming inaccessible, except for those with sufficient liquidity.

Fiatleak shows the retail side of US-based demand, with constant inflows from dollar-based buying. However, the real driver of demand includes the daily ETF buying, as well as the building of corporate treasuries.

The talk of a government strategic reserve also boosts confidence in BTC for US investors. The US Government is also still holding, with over $20B in BTC, despite talks of selling all holdings. US-based demand has also been reflected by Bitcoin nodes, where over 26% of all node operators are in the USA, with both personal nodes and cloud-based data centers.

The buying happens at a time when the US dollar is also one of the key pairs for BTC. More than 25% of all BTC trading is in direct pairings with the US dollar, showing robust activity on centralized exchanges.