Oil News: WTI Slumps Below 200-Day MA as IEA Cuts Oil Demand Outlook

Commodity

Summary:

WTI crude fell below its 200-day MA as IEA raised supply forecasts and cut demand outlook. Technicals turned bearish, with resistance at $62.69 and risk toward sub-$60 if $65.60 isn’t reclaimed.

Technical Breakdown Pressures Light Crude Futures

Daily Light Crude Oil Futures

Light crude oil futures are under pressure on Wednesday, with prices retreating after failing to hold above the 200-day moving average at $64.07. The market briefly breached key support at $62.69—the June low—before rebounding slightly.

However, technical sentiment has turned decidedly bearish. With $62.69 now acting as resistance, traders are eyeing further downside toward the May 30 bottom at $56.91. A move below that level could open the door to a steeper selloff, especially if prices remain capped below the 50-day moving average at $65.60.

IEA Raises Supply Forecast, Weighs on Oil Prices

Adding to the downside pressure, the International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its supply forecast upward on Wednesday, citing increased output from OPEC+ producers.

At the same time, the agency trimmed its global oil demand outlook, pointing to sluggish consumption across major economies. This rebalancing of the supply-demand equation tilted sentiment bearish, with traders now pricing in weaker fundamentals through the rest of the year.

Geopolitical Watch: Traders Await U.S.-Russia Talks

Markets are also closely watching the upcoming meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin, scheduled for Friday in Alaska. While the summit will focus on the war in Ukraine, analysts expect no additional sanctions on Russian oil.

According to PVM Oil’s Tamas Varga, this has contributed to the softening in crude prices, as uninterrupted Russian exports continue to flow into southern and eastern markets.

U.S. Inventory Data Sends Mixed Signals

The latest American Petroleum Institute (API) data showed a 1.52 million barrel build in U.S. crude inventories last week, reinforcing supply-side concerns. Gasoline stockpiles declined, while distillates posted a slight gain.

Traders now await the official Energy Information Administration (EIA) report due later today, with consensus expecting a modest 300,000 barrel draw.

Meanwhile, the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook issued Tuesday projected Brent crude prices to average below $60 per barrel in Q4—the lowest quarterly average since 2020.

Oil Prices Forecast: Bearish Below Key Technicals and Soft Demand Outlook

With a failed breakout above the 200-day moving average and fundamental data skewing bearish—higher supply, softening demand, and stable Russian exports—WTI crude is positioned for further downside.

Unless prices can reclaim the $65.60 level, the technical setup favors continued weakness, with sub-$60 levels likely in play in the near term.

Traders should watch for confirmation from EIA stockpile data and Friday’s geopolitical developments, but for now, the market bias remains bearish.

Source: fxempire

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Winkelmann

Economic

Cryptocurrency

Forex

Key Points:

● Vietnam's finance ministry plans to pilot a digital asset exchange, integrating blockchain.

● Exchange aims to enhance asset liquidity in Vietnam.

● Global market sees growing interest in digital asset innovations.

Vietnam will pilot a digital asset exchange in an international financial center, finalized by the Ministry of Finance, and awaiting government approval in August 2025.This move signals Vietnam's commitment to digital finance, potentially increasing regional liquidity and paving the way for modernized economic infrastructure.

Vietnam's Blockchain Exchange Initiative Targets Enhanced Liquidity

Vietnam's move to pilot a digital asset exchange stems from legislative developments that include the National Assembly's resolution and the Ministry of Finance's comprehensive proposal. The planned pilot policy, awaiting August submission, will encompass trading, issuance, and management of digital assets, with a focus on blockchain and cybersecurity. The policy is designed to offer service providers the autonomy to select listed assets.The pilot exchange aims to boost liquidity and demand for leading digital assets, serving both Vietnamese and foreign markets. Vietnam's central bank's ongoing research into a national digital currency underlines the government's long-term strategy for a digital economy. Service providers will play a key role in asset selection, potentially elevating trading volumes.

Market observers note the announcement's potential to catalyze investment flows into Vietnam's digital asset market. Blockchain proponents herald this as an opportunity for expansion and innovation. The exchange pilot suggests broad support for blockchain technology, attracting notable attention within the regional and global financial community.

Pilot May Spur Global Investment and Technological Innovation

Did you know? Vietnam's policy fosters transparency and growth, potentially setting a regulatory standard in the region.

As of the latest data from CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin (BTC) holds a price of $119,220.74, with a market capitalization of $2.37 trillion and a dominance of 58.81%. However, its 24-hour trading volume decreased by 10.61% to $73.77 billion. Over 90 days, BTC's price increased by 15.74%.

Bitcoin(BTC), daily chart, screenshot on CoinMarketCap at 02:29 UTC on August 13, 2025.

The Coincu research team highlights that Vietnam's policy fosters transparency and growth, potentially setting a regulatory standard in the region. "The pilot policy for digital asset trading finalized for government review by August," states the Vietnam Ministry of Finance. By integrating blockchain tech into the infrastructure, the exchange is positioned as a model of innovation in Southeast Asia's financial landscape. The pilot policy is anticipated to accelerate Vietnam's standing in an evolving financial climate.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Damon

Economic

Commodity

Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased from 403.0 million barrels to 403.2 million barrels.Domestic oil production grew from 13.284 million bpd to 13.327 million bpd.Oil prices moved lower as traders reacted to the EIA report.

On August 13, 2025, EIA released its Weekly Petroleum Status Report. The report indicated that crude inventories increased by +3 million barrels from the previous week, compared to analyst consensus of -0.8 million barrels. At current levels, inventories are about 6% below the five-year average for this time of the year.

Total motor gasoline inventories declined by -0.8 million barrels, compared to analyst forecast of -1 million barrels. Distillate fuel inventories increased by +0.7 million barrels from the previous week.

Crude oil imports increased by +958,000 bpd, averaging 6.9 million bpd. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 6.2 million bpd. Rising crude oil imports were the key driver behind the increase in crude inventories.

Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased from 403.0 million barrels to 403.2 million barrels. From a big picture point of view, Strategic Petroleum Reserve has remained mostly unchanged in recent weeks.

Domestic oil production increased from 13.284 million bpd to 13.327 million bpd. A move above the 13.4 million bpd level will signal that domestic oil production is ready to increase at current oil price levels.

WTI oil remained under pressure as traders reacted to the EIA report. Currently, WTI oil is trying to settle below the $62.50 level.

Brent oil pulled back towards the $65.50 level after the release of the report.

Source: FX Empire

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Adam

Economic

Top tech executives are at the forefront of a recent swathe of unprecedented deals with U.S. President Donald Trump.

In just the last few days, the White House confirmed that two U.S. chipmakers, Nvidia and AMD , would be allowed to sell advanced chips to China in exchange for the U.S. government receiving a 15% cut of their revenues in the Asian country.

Apple CEO Tim Cook, meanwhile, recently announced plans to increase the firm’s U.S. investment commitment to $600 billion over the next four years. The move was widely seen as a bid to get the tech giant out of Trump’s crosshairs on tariffs — and appears to have worked for now.

Altogether, analysts say the deals show just how important it is for the world’s largest companies to find some tariff relief.

“The flurry of deal-making is an effort to secure lighter treatment from tariffs,” Paolo Pescatore, technology analyst at PP Foresight, told CNBC by email.

“In some shape or form, all of the big tech companies have been negatively impacted by tariffs. They can ill afford to fork out on millions of dollars in additional fees that will further dent profits as underlined by recent quarterly earnings,” Pescatore said.

While the devil will be in the detail of these agreements, Pescatore said that Apple leading the way with its accelerated U.S. investment will likely trigger “a domino effect” within the industry.

Apple, for its part, has long been regarded as one of the Big Tech firms most vulnerable to simmering trade tensions between the U.S. and China.

Earlier this month, Trump announced plans to impose a 100% tariff on imports of semiconductors and chips, albeit with an exemption for firms that are “building in the United States.”

Apple, which relies on hundreds of different chips for its devices and incurred $800 million in tariff costs in the June quarter, is among the firms exempt from the proposed tariffs.

A ‘hands-on’ approach

The Nvidia and AMD deal with the Trump administration has meanwhile sparked intense debate over the potential impact on the chip giants’ businesses and whether the U.S. government may seek out similar agreements with other firms.

Some strategists described the arrangement as a “shakedown,” while others suggested it may even be unconstitutional and comparing it to a tax on exports.

White House Spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said Tuesday that the legality and mechanics of the 15% export tax on Nvidia and AMD were “still being ironed out.” She also hinted deals of this kind could expand to other companies in future.

Ray Wang, founder and chairman of Constellation Research, described the Nvidia and AMD deal to pay 15% of China chip sales revenues to the U.S. government as “bizarre.”

Speaking to CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Monday, Wang said what is “really weird” is there is still some uncertainty over whether these chips represent a national security issue.

“If the answer is no, fine OK. The government is taking a cut out of it,” Wang said. “Both Nvidia’s Jensen Huang and Lisa Su at AMD both decided that OK, we’ve got a way to get our chips into China and maybe there is something good coming out of it.”

Investor concerns

While investors initially welcomed the deal as broadly positive for both Nvidia and AMD, which once more secure access to the Chinese market, Wang said some in the industry will nevertheless be concerned.

“As an investor, you’re worried because then, is this an arbitrary decision by the government? Does every president get to play kingmaker in terms of these deals?” Wang said.

“So, I think that’s really what the concern is, and we still have additional tariffs and trade deals to come from the China negotiations,” he added.

Looking ahead, Dan Niles, founder and portfolio manager at Niles Investment Management, said the question for investors is whether the Trump administration’s “hands-on” approach is positive or negative for U.S. companies.

“I think for each company, it is very different. So, it certainly it is something I take into account. The bigger thing for me is do you have some stability of policy? Do you have a policy one week and then it flips the next?” Niles told CNBC’s “Closing Bell: Overtime” on Monday. “Right now, that is what concerns me a little bit more.”

Source: cnbc

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Michelle

Economic

Forex

The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is now seen near 100% after new data showed U.S. inflation increasing at a moderate pace in July and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he thought an aggressive half-point cut was possible given recent weak employment numbers.

Traders in contracts tied to the benchmark federal funds rate on Wednesday put the odds of a quarter-percentage point cut at the Fed's September 16-17 meeting at 99.9%, according to estimates calculated by the CME Group's FedWatch tool that followed the release of July Consumer Price Index data on Tuesday and later comments by Bessent noting that the Fed used fears of a weakening job market as justification for a larger cut last September.

Trump has slammed that cut as politically motivated given the proximity to the November presidential election.

Bessent rooted his argument in recent Bureau of Labor Statistics revisions showing job growth had slowed to a crawl in May, June and July, though initial estimates for May and June showed stronger employment growth that Fed officials used to argue that the labor market remained in good shape.

"If we'd seen those numbers in May, in June, I suspect we could have had rate cuts in June and July. So that tells me that there's a very good chance of a 50 basis-point rate cut," in September, Bessent said in an interview on Bloomberg television.

Source: Reuters

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Adam

Cryptocurrency

Riding high from a series of legislative wins and a wave of new financial initiatives, crypto investors are on the up and up. Another blast of positive catalysts has given the crypto world even more room to run this week.

And most notably, the big news items don't really involve bitcoin.

Circle (CRCL), the issuer of the second-largest stablecoin, posted better-than-expected quarterly revenue for the first time since going public.

Bitmine (BMNR), an Ethereum treasury company, announced plans to sell up to another $20 billion worth of stock to boost its holdings of the cryptocurrency.

And an array of popular altcoins are gaining ground.

The moves collectively reflect the warm embrace of the Trump administration, which has championed the crypto industry and shifted the regulatory environment long seen as an obstacle to the adoption and growth of digital currency.

But the success of Wall Street's crypto hedges also underscores rising institutional interest. Despite the risks, and perhaps because of them, more investors are growing comfortable with crypto exposure. And companies are chasing the returns of amassing tokens in a feedback loop that, however fleeting and precarious, seems to be paying off.

Home to the fastest-growing major stablecoin over the past year, Circle shares are up more than 400% from its IPO price of $31 per share. As our colleague Ines Ferré reported, the company has been at the center of optimism over the stablecoin market following the passage of the GENIUS Act, legislation that creates a framework for digital tokens backed by assets such as the US dollar.

Circle makes much of its money from interest income, specifically from short-term Treasury bills backing its stablecoin, USDC. After announcing a new blockchain network for stablecoin finance on Tuesday, shares rose another 3%. It's a play that could deliver some of crypto's promise for innovation to the financial services industry, and Wall Street and investors are paying attention — and making sure they're involved.

Bitmine's surge highlights another pillar of crypto's ascendance in the financial world: the rise of crypto treasury companies. Riffing off the playbook of Strategy (MSTR), which sells new shares and debt to buy and hold more bitcoin, other players are finding success by accumulating other currencies, like ethereum.

Bitmine, whose board is led by investor Tom Lee, announced this week that its holdings of ETH now account for roughly 1% of all tokens in circulation, sending the stock up more than 14%. The company's goal is to eventually reach 5% of the world's outstanding ETH tokens. Shares have surged over 600% this year.

As this newsletter has written recently, the crypto accumulation strategy isn't working for every imitator, but it does work, as bitcoin continues to climb.

But it's not just the dominant tokens that are gaining steam. Over the past week, the 10 largest digital currencies, according to data from CoinMarketCap, have gained. As our colleague Jake Conley reported, Ripple (RIPL.PVT) and Chainlink (LINK-USD) are among the altcoins rallying, fueled by an acquisition of a payment platform and the launch of a token reserve, respectively.

The heady action seems far removed from the crypto winters of the past. But if this is the dawn of a new financial system, as crypto bulls like to profess, this summer is making it a lot easier to make that case.

Source: finance.yahoo

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Glendon

Economic

Political

US President Donald Trump said he would be speaking to European leaders shortly as he prepares for his summit later this week with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.

“Will be speaking to European Leaders in a short while. They are great people who want to see a deal done,” Trump wrote on social media Wednesday.

The call comes as Trump ramps up diplomatic efforts to end Russia’s war in Ukraine — now well into its fourth year — with a face—to-face meeting with Putin on American soil.

The sitdown slated for Friday in Alaska has raised worries among Kyiv’s allies that the US and Russian presidents may negotiate a deal that swaps land for peace without Ukraine’s input or leaves Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy sidelined or without the security assurances needed to deter further aggression.

Earlier: European Leaders Want to Speak to Trump Before He Meets Putin

Trump has said that there may be “some changes” in land, but has also sought to downplay expectations for the summit, casting it as a “feel-out meeting” and saying that he would confer with Ukrainian and European leaders after his gathering with Putin.

“I’m going to be telling him, ‘You got to end this war. You got to end it,’” Trump said Monday at a White House press conference. “I may leave and say, ‘Good luck,’ and that’ll be the end. I may say this is not going to be settled.”

Trump lashed out at what he said was “very unfair media” ahead of the Putin summit in a subsequent social media post on Wednesday.

“If I got Moscow and Leningrad free, as part of the deal with Russia, the Fake News would say that I made a bad deal!,” Trump wrote.

Zelenskiy has ruled out Putin’s demand for territory that Moscow does not control as a pre-condition for a ceasefire, saying that he would need to seek constitutional approval for such a move. That explanation appeared to rankle Trump earlier this week.

Trump has indicated that he did not plan to invite Zelenskiy to the summit, saying the next step after the bilateral meeting would be for Putin and the Ukrainian president to meet directly. Trump offered to mediate that conversation, if necessary.

The call with European leaders follows a weekend of diplomacy between US, Ukrainian and European officials. European leaders have said that any peace agreement must “respect international law, including the principles of independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity.”