November Private Payrolls Unexpectedly Fell By 32,000, Led By Steep Small Business Job Cuts, ADP Reports

Forex

Economic

Summary:

The U.S. labor market slowdown intensified in November as private companies cut 32,000 workers, with small businesses hit the hardest, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday.

With worries intensifying over the domestic jobs picture, ADP indicated the issues were worse than anticipated. The payrolls decline marked a sharp step down from October, which saw an upwardly revised gain of 47,000 positions, and was well below the Dow Jones consensus estimate from economists for an increase of 40,000.

Larger businesses, entailing companies with 50 or more employees, actually reported a net gain of 90,000 workers.

However, establishments with fewer than 50 workers saw a decline of 120,000, including a drop of 74,000 among firms with 20 to 49 employees. The total loss was the biggest drop since March 2023.

Education and health services led gainers with 33,000 hires, while leisure and hospitality added 13,000. But a broad-based decline across industries drove the total lower.

The biggest loss came in professional and business services, which saw a decline of 26,000. Others shedding jobs included information services (-20,000), manufacturing (-18,000) and financial activities and construction, both of which saw losses of 9,000.

The rate of pay also slowed, with workers staying in their jobs seeing a 4.4% year-over-year increase, down 0.1 percentage point from October.

"Hiring has been choppy of late as employers weather cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic environment," said ADP chief economist Nela Richardson. "And while November's slowdown was broad-based, it was led by a pullback among small businesses."

The ADP report is the last jobs picture the Federal Reserve gets before it meets Dec. 9-10. Futures traders are assigning a nearly 90% probability that the central bank will approve another quarter percentage point cut in its key interest rate, despite misgivings from some officials over whether further easing is needed.

In recent weeks, Fed policymakers have expressed a divergence of opinions. One side sees cuts as necessary to head off further labor market troubles, while the other worries that additional reductions could aggravate inflation, which has held considerably above the Fed's 2% target.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its take on the nonfarm payrolls picture on Dec. 16, a date delayed because of the government shutdown.

Source: CNBC

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

A broad-based crypto sell-off accelerated this week, wiping billions off the total market capitalisation and stoking fresh concerns about financial contagion both within the digital asset ecosystem and across adjacent markets.

Bitcoin slipped to about $84,000 (€72,328) during Monday trading before rebounding to near $87,000 later in the day. The cryptocurrency saw more dramatic lows earlier in November, despite a brief consolidation at the end of the month that pushed it over $90,000 — still well below the roughly $100,000 level it was trading at in early November and much lower than the October high of around $125,000.

The downturn has hit other major cryptocurrencies — known as altcoins — as well, with Ethereum trading at around $2,800 — a roughly 7% drop from $3,000 a week ago, and a steep fall from the near $4,800 levels seen in August.

As of early December 2025, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index — a widely followed gauge of crypto investor sentiment inspired by CNN's Fear and Greed Index on other US stocks — remains in the “Extreme Fear” territory with a reading of 23/100, underscoring deep pessimism across the crypto market.

These indices reflect a composite snapshot of market mood, calculated daily by combining signals from six key metrics — including volatility, trading momentum and volume, social-media sentiment, coin dominance and Google search trends.

Crypto champions struggle to stay optimistic

For much of this year, crypto investors had grown almost defiant in the face of repeated warnings that the Bitcoin bubble was due to burst, especially when each dip was followed by an even stronger rebound.

In March and April, Bitcoin saw sharp declines before returning to record-breaking highs of $120,000 (€103,394) in August and October.

The election of Donald Trump fuelled the belief that crypto's momentum was politically protected — somewhat ironic for a digital currency originally invented to escape government-driven monetary systems. Confidence in the coins rose after Trump signed the GENIUS Act, the first US federal stablecoin regulation law, a move widely hailed as legitimising key parts of the crypto ecosystem.

But that confidence seemed to have evaporated in November, when a sharp reversal in Bitcoin’s fortunes began.

Strategy Inc, the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, moved on Monday to reassure investors rattled by December’s steep sell-off and announced a $1.44 billion (€1.24bn) cash reserve to help stabilise its balance sheet.

The company said the new US dollar reserve — funded through recent stock sales — will cover at least 12 months of dividend and interest payments, with the aim of eventually holding enough to cover 24 months.

“Establishing a USD Reserve to complement our BTC reserve marks the next step in our evolution, and we believe it will better position us to navigate short-term market volatility while delivering on our vision of being the world’s leading issuer of digital credit,” Michael Saylor, the founder and executive chairman of Strategy, said in a statement.

The announcement comes as Strategy quietly walks back its own earlier assumptions about Bitcoin’s trajectory, shifting its earlier earnings guidance for 2025 from an end-year Bitcoin price of $150,000 and lowering its price expectation to a more modest range of $85,000 to $110,000.

Source: Euronews

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Adam

Cryptocurrency

Commodity

Gold (XAU) continues to show strength, while Bitcoin (BTC) has pulled back after reaching a record high in 2025. The decline reflects rising stress across financial markets. Liquidity is tightening, repo rates remain elevated, and capital is flowing out of U.S. assets.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin is attempting to rebound from the $80,000 support level but remains under pressure as financial conditions continue to deteriorate. This article examines how current macroeconomic trends are influencing the outlook for both gold and Bitcoin.

The Macro Driver Behind Gold’s Rise and Bitcoin’s Pullback

The Secure Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is testing 4.0%, showing stress in the $12 trillion repo market. This rate is trading above the Fed’s Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB), which signals a funding shortage. Commercial banks are being forced to fill the gap. This tight environment is draining liquidity across financial markets.

Gold vs. Bitcoin: Why Tight Liquidity Supports Precious Metals Over Crypto_1

On the other hand, the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index is approaching zero, confirming rising systemic pressure.

Gold vs. Bitcoin: Why Tight Liquidity Supports Precious Metals Over Crypto_2

At the same time, the Treasury General Account (TGA) remains elevated, limiting cash flow into the economy. A high TGA acts like a vacuum, pulling liquidity away from risk assets and slowing down credit flow. Financial conditions are now the tightest they have been in over a year.

Gold vs. Bitcoin: Why Tight Liquidity Supports Precious Metals Over Crypto_3

Bitcoin Under Pressure as Liquidity Tightens

Bitcoin dropped from its record high in October 2025, reflecting tightening liquidity across global markets. Investors are pulling capital from speculative assets. The decline found support at a rising trend line that has been intact since 2023.

Bitcoin is now rebounding from the key $80,000 support area and looking for its next direction. A break below $80,000 would signal further downside, while a break above $105,000 would confirm renewed upside momentum.

Gold vs. Bitcoin: Why Tight Liquidity Supports Precious Metals Over Crypto_4

The Fed may cut rates on December 10, but funding pressure remains elevated. At the same time, carry trade unwinds are triggering liquidations. The current macro environment remains unfavourable for short-term crypto strength.

Gold Breaks Out as Safe-Haven Demand Returns

The weekly chart for spot gold indicates that the price is trading within an ascending channel and has formed a bottom near the $4,000 area, located at the channel’s midline. The rebound from this midline signals renewed strength. This setup suggests that gold is likely to continue rising toward the upper resistance zone, around the $4,500 region.

Gold vs. Bitcoin: Why Tight Liquidity Supports Precious Metals Over Crypto_5

Liquidity stress is boosting demand for safe-haven assets. Gold is responding to growing fear in the system. Its recent gains reinforce its role as a hedge against both inflation and systemic risk. If the Fed cuts rates while liquidity remains tight, gold will likely gain further traction.

Gold Outperforms Bitcoin as Institutions Seek Safety

Gold and Bitcoin prices are diverging in 2025. The chart below shows that both assets increased in value in 2024, but Bitcoin prices dropped sharply in 2025. However, gold remained the stronger asset with gains of over 50% this year. Bitcoin’s decline reflects its dependence on excess liquidity and leverage. On the other hand, institutions tend to prioritize safety as financial conditions tighten. Gold’s strength reflects real demand and its established role in central bank reserves.

Gold vs. Bitcoin: Why Tight Liquidity Supports Precious Metals Over Crypto_6

Despite the sharp drop in 2025, Bitcoin’s overall price behaviour remains positive, as the upward trend from 2023 remains intact. This trend suggests that the recent decline is part of an intense volatility. The correction may attract renewed buying, which could push prices higher again.

The long-term outlook for the gold-to-Bitcoin ratio shows that it has reached resistance at the 0.05 level and is now correcting lower. This resistance coincides with Bitcoin finding support near the $80,000 level. The alignment suggests that Bitcoin may begin to recover from its current levels, with a potential rebound ahead.

Gold vs. Bitcoin: Why Tight Liquidity Supports Precious Metals Over Crypto_7

Conclusion

Gold remains the stronger performer in a market weighed down by liquidity stress. The rising financial risk, combined with a firm technical setup, supports further upside. The metal continues to benefit from its role as a safe-haven asset, attracting steady institutional demand. If conditions remain tight, even with a possible Fed rate cut, gold will likely extend its advance toward the $4,500 level and beyond.

On the other hand, Bitcoin faces pressure due to its dependence on liquidity and leverage. The drop from record highs highlights that vulnerability. However, long-term support near $80,000 has held, and the broader uptrend from 2023 remains intact. A break above $105,000 will indicate further upside in the Bitcoin price.

Source: fxempire

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Winkelmann

Political

· Police officer was arrested as part of "Operation Midway Blitz" in October

· Hanover Park Police Department said he was working in the U.S. legally

· Police department says he has returned to duty after being released on bond

A suburban Chicago police officer who was detained during a high-profile federal immigration enforcement surge in the area has returned to duty, his police department said in a statement on Tuesday.

Radule Bojovic, an officer with the Hanover Park Police Department, was arrested by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents during "Operation Midway Blitz," a months-long deportation campaign launched by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump in the Chicago area in September.

The Department of Homeland Security, which oversees ICE, announced Bojovic's arrest with much fanfare in a press release on October 16, saying he had overstayed a tourist visa after arriving in the U.S. from Montenegro.

But the Hanover Park Police Department quickly responded with a statement saying Bojovic was working in the country legally, having presented a work authorization card and passed FBI and Illinois State Police background checks.

There was no immediate response to a request seeking comment from ICE.

Bojovic, who was held at a detention center in Brazil, Indiana, according to ICE's online detainee locator, was released on bond on October 31, the Hanover Park Police Department said.

"Given that his bond was not contested and he remains authorized to work by the federal government, the Hanover Park Police Department determined that he may return to work," Deputy Chief Victor DiVito said in the statement.

DiVito said Bojovic would receive back pay for the time he was on leave during his detention.

DHS Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs Tricia McLaughlin told Reuters as of November 19, ICE and U.S. Customs and Border Protection officers had arrested more than 4,200 people in the Chicago area during Operation Midway Blitz.

Source: Reuters

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Glendon

Commodity

Gold Holds Above Key Support as Markets Wait for Fed Clues

Daily Gold (XAU/USD)

Spot Gold (XAUUSD) is grinding higher Tuesday, trading just above the short-term retracement zone between $4,133.95 and $4,192.36. That's the final line of defense before the 50-day moving average at $4,058.26 — and as long as that holds, the uptrend's still in play.

The two-day consolidation tells you what you need to know: traders are positioned, but nobody's pressing. They're waiting for the catalyst that breaks this week's high at $4,264.70. After that, it's a straight shot at the record at $4,381.44.

The setup is clean. Buyers have been stepping in on dips all year, and right now they're deciding whether to chase the breakout or wait for one more pullback. With the 50-day still rising, the bias is to buy weakness — but the real move likely comes from the data, not the chart.

At 12:27 GMT, XAUUSD is trading $4207.87, up $2.20 or +0.05%.

Fed Cut Odds Jump, Treasury Yields Drift Lower

Markets are pricing an 87% chance of a December rate cut, up sharply from 30% just two weeks ago. That shift — driven by weaker jobs data and dovish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller — is doing the heavy lifting for gold right now.

Treasury yields are edging lower across the curve. The 10-year is down to 4.063%, the 2-year at 3.49%. Not a collapse, but enough to keep non-yielding assets like gold supported. Lower rates mean lower opportunity cost, and that's been the theme all year.

The question now is whether this week's data — ADP employment Wednesday, ISM Services later, and the delayed September PCE on Friday — confirms the Fed's dovish tilt or throws a wrench in it. If the numbers come in soft, gold could punch through resistance. If they surprise hot, the dip-buyers get their chance.

Dollar Slides for Ninth Straight Session

The dollar's on pace for its ninth consecutive daily loss, down 0.15% to 99.10 on the index. That's a nearly 9% drop for the year, and it's all about rate expectations. The more the Fed cuts, the less reason there is to hold dollars — especially when the euro's catching a bid on hopes of a Ukraine peace deal and the yen's firming on Bank of Japan rate hike talk.

Fed Chair uncertainty isn't helping. Trump's expected to announce his pick for Jerome Powell's replacement early next year, and the market's already pricing in a "shadow Fed chair" problem — two voices on policy when traders need one. That kind of noise usually weakens the dollar, and it's another tailwind for gold.

Gold Poised for Breakout — But Waiting on the Data

Gold's holding support, the Fed's dovish, and the dollar's weak. The setup favors the bulls, but the breakout isn't confirmed yet. This week's data will either push gold through $4,264.70 toward the record — or give dip-buyers one more entry before year-end. Either way, the 50-day moving average is the line that matters. As long as that holds, buyers have the upper hand.

Source: FX Empire

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

European and Asian shares were mixed Wednesday after stocks on Wall Street held steadier as both bond yields and bitcoin stabilized.

In early European trading, Germany’s DAX picked up 0.4% to 23,813.38, while the CAC 40 in Paris climbed 0.3% to 8,100.09. Britain’s FTSE 100 was unchanged at 9,702.28.

The future for the S&P 500 edged 0.1% higher while that for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 0.2% higher.

In Asian trading, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 jumped 1.1% to 49,864.68 on big gains for technology shares like Tokyo Electron, which jumped 4.7%. Adventest, a maker of computer chip testing equipment, surged 5.3%.

Technology and telecoms giant SoftBank Group Corp. surged 6.4% following reports that its founder, Masayoshi Son, regretted having to sell shares in computer chip maker Nvidia to help pay for other investments. The company’s share price sank after it announced last month that it had sold the shares for $5.8 billion.

South Korea’s Kospi also got a lift from tech shares, gaining 1% to 4,036.30. Shares in Samsung Electronics, the country’s biggest company, rose 1.1%.

But Chinese markets declined following the release of data showing weaker factory activity.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.3% to 25,760.73, while the Shanghai Composite index shed 0.5% to 3,878.00.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 edged 0.2% higher, to 8,595.20.

On Tuesday, the S&P 500 rose 0.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.4%. The Nasdaq composite gained 0.6%.

The U.S. economy has been holding up overall, but that’s masking sharp divisions beneath the surface. Lower-income households are struggling with higher prices while richer households are benefiting from a stock market that’s within 1% of its all-time high set in late October.

In the bond market, Treasury yields calmed following their jumps the day before. The 10-year yield edged down to 4.08% from 4.09% late Monday, while the two-year yield eased to 3.51% from 3.54%.

Higher yields can drag prices lower for all kinds of investments, and those seen as the most expensive can take the biggest hit.

Monday’s climb in Treasury yields came after the governor of the Bank of Japan hinted that it may raise interest rates there soon. But hopes are still high that the Federal Reserve will cut its main interest rate when it meets in Washington next week.

The Japanese central bank is likely to raise its benchmark rate at its Dec. 19 meeting, Tan Boon Heng of Mizuho Bank in Singapore, because failing to do so could lead investors to sell off Japanese yen.

“Yet, delivering a ‘done deal’ hike may perversely deny any appreciable JPY (Japanese yen) gains, whilst boosting long-end yields,” he said in a report.

The Fed has already cut its overnight interest rate twice this year in hopes of shoring up a slowing job market. But lower rates can fan inflation, which has stubbornly remained above its 2% target.

Complicating things is the U.S. government’s earlier shutdown, which delayed reports on the job market and other areas of the economy.

In other dealings early Wednesday, bitcoin, which tumbled below $85,000 on Monday as bond yields worldwide marched higher, rose to $93,330.

U.S. benchmark crude oil rose 71 cents to $59.35 per barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, gained 67 cents to $63.12 per barrel.

The U.S. dollar slipped to 155.65 Japanese yen from 155.87 yen. The euro rose to $1.1645 from $1.1626.

Source: AP

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Economic

Bond

Traders are piling into bets that a new Federal Reserve chair and the release of delayed economic data this month will support Donald Trump’s calls for lower interest rates.

In the US futures market, demand is building for short-term curve structures linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, which closely tracks perceived outcomes of Fed interest rate decisions. The wagers reflect the potential for monetary policy easing to gather pace after chair Jerome Powell’s term ends in May. The June 17 announcement will be the first under a new central bank chief.

The new positions started to build after White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett emerged as the frontrunner to succeed Powell. Trump said Tuesday that the race is “down to one” while referring to Hassett as a “potential Fed chair” during a cabinet meeting. He said he would announce his decision early next year.

Trader Bets Swell on Trump-Backed Fed, Data Stoking US Rate Cuts_1

The announcement “will create a ‘shadow Fed chair’,” Kristina Hooper, chief market strategist at Man Group, wrote this week. “This could complicate the Fed’s ability to communicate monetary policy and could create some confusion for markets at a time when they need clarity.”

Traders in the leveraged futures market are already gaming out the scenarios with a huge buyer emerging Monday in one SOFR futures fly — the largest trade seen in that particular structure in more than a year. Recent sessions have also seen elevated activity in 3-, 6- and 12-month SOFR spreads, as traders look to target more rate cuts.

Delayed Data

It’s not just the next Fed chair announcement driving activity across futures spreads. Goldman Sachs strategists are looking to hedge ahead of the November labor market data due Dec. 16, just before the January policy meeting. The data, delayed by the US government shutdown, could spur more dovish bets if they confirm recent signs of softening.

“We continue to see greater asymmetry for the front-end to pull forward cuts given the trend in labor market slack measures,” strategists including George Cole said in a Nov. 28 note.

They favor positions benefiting from a curve steepening by targeting short-dated futures via SOFR Dec26/Dec27 spreads and further out the curve with conditional 2s10s bull steepeners. These bets will gather further traction if Hassett is confirmed as the next Fed chair.

Wagers on a dovish policy shift and a ramp-up in December rate-cut odds pushed 10-year Treasury yields below the 4% mark last week. US Treasuries held marginal gains on Wednesday, with the 10-year yield slipping one basis point to 4.08%. That’s down from 4.11% on Tuesday, its highest level in nearly two weeks.

Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management, said that cutting rates while inflation is still above the Fed’s target could drive yields on long-end Treasuries higher, even as short-term rates fall.

“If Hassett is confirmed, the most likely outcome is bear steepening,” said McIntyre. “I think of myself as part of the bond vigilantes. My job is to send a message to the administration. Do we need to send that message now? It’s too early to say. For me, it’s still wait-and-see.”

Here’s a rundown of the latest positioning indicators across the rates market:

JPMorgan Survey

For the week ending Dec. 1, investor long positions dropped nine percentage points, with shorts rising 3 percentage points. As a result, the net long position dropped to the fewest since Nov. 3.

Trader Bets Swell on Trump-Backed Fed, Data Stoking US Rate Cuts_2

New Risk in SOFR Options

In SOFR options out to the Jun26 tenor, activity has focused around the 96.3125 strike following flows over the past week for new risk including a buyer of the SFRZ5 96.25/96.3125 call spreads and SFRZ5 96.3125/96.375 call spreads. Flows also included a buyer of SFRZ5 96.3125/96.375 2x1 put spreads as traders look to position around the Dec. 10 policy meeting, where currently around 22 basis points of rate cuts are priced.

Trader Bets Swell on Trump-Backed Fed, Data Stoking US Rate Cuts_3

In SOFR options across tenors out to the Jun26 contracts, the 96.25 strike remains the most populated due to continued demand for upside call structures involving the level in Dec25 options. There’s also a large amount of open interest in the Dec25 96.50 and Dec25 96.375 calls. For large outstanding put structures, the Dec25 96.25 and Dec25 96.1875 put strikes are significantly populated.

Trader Bets Swell on Trump-Backed Fed, Data Stoking US Rate Cuts_4

Treasury Options Premium

The premium paid on options to hedge Treasuries over the past week has continued to drift around neutral. Premium in the front and intermediates of the futures strip continues to slightly favor calls over puts, indicating traders paying more to hedge a Treasuries rally in the front end and belly of the curve versus a selloff.