No tariff pause announced after US-China talks, with Trump set to make the 'final call'

Economic

China–U.S. Trade War

Summary:

U.S.-China trade talks ended without a tariff pause, leaving the decision to President Trump. Markets remain cautious as higher duties could return by August 12 absent a last-minute extension.

US and Chinese negotiators wrapped up two days of talks Tuesday without an immediate announcement of a further tariff delay between the world’s two largest economies as markets watch closely for an offramp to avert additional duties that could be in the offing in about two weeks time.

"We're going to head back to Washington DC and we're going to talk to the president about whether that's something that he wants to do," said Trade Representative Jamieson Greer after the talks concluded in Stockholm, Sweden.

"The president can make a final call," he added.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added to reporters Tuesday that it was "a very fulsome two days" of talks and that another 90-day pause remains on the table with the overall tone of talks being "very constructive."

"The two sides will continue to push for the continued extension of the pause," added Chinese trade negotiator Li Chenggang, according to a translation, in his own brief comments to reporters,

Both Bessent and Greer underlined Tuesday that rates could "boomerang" back to the much higher April levels depending on the president's decision and that nothing is final until Trump signs off.

Bessent added that negotiators didn't discuss a face-to-face gathering between the two presidents and that the focus was on policy from Russian oil consumption to rare earth minerals to Chinese export controls and "not to discuss if there would be a meeting."

The lack of that hoped-for tariff announcement (at least for today) could put in jeopardy the current headline rates of 30% on Chinese imports and 10% on American goods (though sector-specific tariffs push overall tariffs higher) amid renewed fears of a market-rattling snap back to triple digital levels seen earlier this year.

That lack of conclusion following the discussions in Sweden means that the higher rates do remain scheduled to kick in Aug. 12 absent another pause.

It was the third meeting of the American and Chinese trade teams in recent months, with previous gatherings having taken place in Geneva and London. Bessent said Tuesday that each meeting has built on the last.

He added that a followup meeting likely in about 90 days or so.

He Lifeng, China's vice premier for economic policy, led the talks for his country. His colleague Li Chenggang added that the two sides had "candid exchanges over each others trade and economic concerns."

No announcements on tariffs or a face to face meeting

This latest round of talks had an array of issues on the table, from solidifying recent progress on semiconductors (including a plan to allow the resumption of Nvidia's (NVDA) AI chip exports to China) as well as Chinese exports of rare earth minerals and China's consumption of Russian oil.

"Both sides reviewed the implementation of the Geneva and London consensus and fully recognized the implementation," China's Li added Tuesday of those closely watched provisions, saying according to a translation that "the two economic and trade teams will continue to maintain close communication."

But the lack agreement on tariffs came after a series of conciliatory signals from the US side, with the Financial Times reporting that Trump officials have paused tech exports controls for now in part to improve the odds of progress. Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te has also canceled a sensitive trip to Latin America that would have included a stopover in the US that had angered Beijing.

The lack of an announcement also came after days of positive signals suggested one was likely.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick offered on FOX News Channel Monday evening of the 90-day pause idea “Is that a likely outcome? Sure, it seems that way. But let's leave it to President Trump to decide.”

The widely expected scenario is expected to be a balm to markets if Trump eventually approves the deal.

“As long as they push the deadline out 90 days and we don't revert to those 145% tariffs that the president sort of escalated earlier in the year, then the market doesn't much care,” Henrietta Treyz of Veda Partners noted on Yahoo Finance Tuesday morning.

Major talks in a key trade week

The announcement of another pause came during another crucial week for Trump's trade agenda and after a pact was announced with the European Union Sunday that sets 15% tariffs but key other trade questions remain outstanding

Negotiations continue with Europe as trade watchers await a formal joint statement on the deal and negotiators still apparently at work to lock in legally binding text.

It also comes ahead of another deadline looming this Friday with other countries — from India to Canada to Taiwan to Mexico to South Korea — who are in talks to strike a deal before Trump’s self-imposed reciprocal tariff deadlines.

Those negotiations now need to come to a head one way or another before Friday with President Trump saying scores of other nations will simply receive letters in the coming days to announce their tariff rates which he says says will start in the 15-20% range.

Source: finance.yahoo

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Manuel

Commodity

Political

Natural resources that are not grown in the United States, including coffee and cocoa, could be exempt from import tariffs when trade deals with producing countries are reached, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Tuesday.

Lutnick said in an interview for CNBC's talk program 'Squawk Box' that President Donald Trump has agreed to set zero tariffs for those natural resources that are not grown in the U.S. in the trade deals he has closed, including the ones with Indonesia and the European Union.

"If you grow something and we don't grow it, that can come in for zero, so if we do a deal with a country that grows mangos, pineapple, then they can come in without a tariff, because coffee and cocoa will be other examples of natural resources," Lutnick said.

"So Europe came in with cork, for example. That can come in to the U.S. without a tariff," he said.

A part of the text of the 'Agreement on Reciprocal Trade between the United States and Indonesia' that was published last week by the White House cites natural resources.

It says that the U.S. "may also identify certain commodities that are not naturally available or domestically produced in the United States for a further reduction in the reciprocal tariff rate".

Indonesia agreed with a tariff of 19% to sell its products in the U.S., but could eventually have zero tariff for its coffee, cocoa, or other tropical products.

Lutnick however did not comment on the situation of tropical products coming from countries that still do not have a deal with the U.S., such as Brazil.

Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian products from August 1 in a move that also involves politics, as the U.S. President complained about the treatment Brazilian courts are giving to former Brazilian president and his ally Jair Bolsonaro.

Brazil supplies a third of the coffee used in the U.S., the world's largest drinker of the beverage, and that trade could be heavily impacted if tariffs are indeed imposed.

Source: Reuters

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Economic

A couple of data points got published for the US after no economic release in the prior session – Markets actually did not need such to move sharply, particularly after a volatile follow-up to the EU-US Trade Deal headlines.

Despite a positive Consumer Sentiment report (97.2 vs 95.0 expected), Bears are marking intermediate tops in US Indices after a worse than anticipated JOLTS report (7.437M versus 7.500M estimate).

There has been a strange atmosphere in Markets as of late with reactions to headlines beginning to be more surprising than they were for the first half of the year – And I am not omitting how volatile the 1st half was.

The biggest culprit in that aspect is the Dow Jones, sending many signals of relative strength before retracting – The latest being a shakeout at the highs creating a new record for the index before falling by 500 points.

Nasdaq and the S&P 500 have marked some new highs before also retracting. Markets are still expecting the release of Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon earnings.

The complexity of the situation may stand in the latest rebound in the US Dollar surprising participants – In the meantime, let's take a look at the US Indices intraday charts.

Intraday Charts for the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones

S&P 500 1H Chart

S&P 500 1H Chart, July 29, 2025

The S&P 500 has sold off close to 40 points from its new All-time high level attained yesterday during futures overnight trading (CFD 6,428 – 6,409 on the actual index).

The price action is showing confluence between the lower highs on the charts and the lower highs in the RSI – Buyers did push to fill the week-end gap located at 6,415.

Consider the Mid-July upwards channel for immediate momentum and relative-strength as prices are approaching its lower bound.

Any move in today's session is subject to some imminent change in sentiment as key earnings from the Magnificent 7 may alter today's analysis.

Levels of interest to place on your charts:

Support Levels:

6,385 channel lows (immediate support)

Pivot turned support 3,340 +/- 5pts – Confluence with 1H MA 200

Short-term Key Support just below 6,300

Resistance Levels:

Pivot/Resistance around the 6,400 psychological level (+/- 5 pts)

1H MA 50 6,404

ATH Resistance 6,420 region

ATH 6,427 (right at 1.618% fib extension)

Nasdaq 1H Chart

Nasdaq 1H Chart, July 29, 2025

The Nasdaq as hit a new record in this morning's session right at the 10:00 A.M data (23,535 CFD – 23,510 actual index) and is currently selling off right below its 1H-50 Period Moving Average.

The ongoing selling is strong and the level to check for potential acceleration would be 23,320 where the week-end open gapped – This level serves as immediate pivot to the price action so keep it closely in check

Same as for the S&P 500, any action in today's session may be invalidated by the upcoming earnings so watch your risk and bias, as the releases will have a huge influence on the future course of action.

Levels of interest to place on your charts:

Support Levels:

Week-end gap pivot 23,320 to 23,360

Pivot turned Support at 23,150 in Confluence with 1H MA 200

22,900 Support

Resistance Levels:

All-time High resistance zone around 23,500

ATH 23,535

23,393 1H 50-period MA

Dow Jones 1H chart

Dow Jones 1H Chart, July 29, 2025

The Dow Jones had formed a bearish divergence at the weekly open after gapping to new all-time highs (45,143 CFD, 45,016 on Index)

Since, the index has been selling off quite strongly since, and current reactions to the Immediate pivot are interesting to keep in check, particularly as momentum is getting oversold and the 1H MA 200 is acting as immediate support.

Levels of interest to place on your charts:

Support Levels:

Preceding Range Highs, Current pivot 44,600 to 44,700

44,400 Support Zone

44,000 Support Main Support Zone

Resistance Levels:

ATH Resistance Zone 44,900 to 45,145

ATH 45,143

1H 50-period MA 44,915

44,870 break-retest of May uptrend

Source : marketpulse

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Stocks

US stocks gave up earlier gains on Tuesday as investors digested a wave of corporate earnings and economic data, while bracing for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision due Wednesday.

Traders also kept a close eye on updates regarding US-China trade relations, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent telling reports in Stockholm that President Trump will make the final call on extending a tariff truce. Bessent suggested adding another 90 days to the current suspension, with issues remaining minor and mainly related to the Chinese delegation.

In late afternoon trade, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) slipped about 0.2% after narrowly notching a sixth straight record close, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell by a similar margin. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dropped roughly 0.5%, or over 200 points.

Markets are poised for a high-stakes week as the Federal Reserve kicked off its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, alongside a busy slate of economic data. While the Fed is expected to hold rates steady, investors remain on edge for any signs of economic weakness that could justify cuts later this year.

ob openings and hirings both fell in June, the Bureau of Labor's JOLTS update showed, setting the stage for the all-important monthly US nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. Meanwhile, consumer confidence saw an uptick in July, but worries about job availability intensified, according to official figures.

Also in focus, the US goods trade deficit hit a two-year low in June, as imports tumbled and businesses looked to get ahead of tariffs.

Looming large is President Trump's Friday deadline for trading partners to strike deals or face blanket tariff rates. Hopes for an extension to the US-China trade truce are buoying the likes of AI chipmaker Nvidia's (NVDA) stock, although shares fell modestly on Tuesday. At the same time, the US dollar (DX-Y.NYB) continued to rally as markets grow confident that the tariff impact will be contained.

Earnings took center stage, with Boeing (BA) posting better-than-expected quarterly results. But weaker reports from Spotify (SPOT), Merck (MRK), and UnitedHealth (UNH) weighed on sentiment. After the bell, all eyes turn to Starbucks (SBUX) for signs of progress on its turnaround efforts.

Source :finance.yahoo

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Owen Li

Political

Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Tuesday Britain was prepared to recognise a Palestinian state in September at the United Nations General Assembly unless Israel takes a number of steps to improve life for Palestinians.

Britain, if it acts, would become the second Western power on the U.N. Security Council to do so after France last week, reflecting Israel's deepening isolation over its conduct in its war against Hamas in Gaza, where a humanitarian disaster has set in and the Palestinian death toll has risen above 60,000.

Starmer said Britain would make the move unless Israel took substantive steps to allow more aid to enter Gaza, made clear there will be no annexation of the West Bank and commits to a long-term peace process that delivers a "two-state solution" - a Palestinian state co-existing in peace alongside Israel.

"The Palestinian people have endured terrible suffering," Starmer told reporters. "Now, in Gaza, because of a catastrophic failure of aid, we see starving babies, children too weak to stand, images that will stay with us for a lifetime. The suffering must end."

Starmer said his government would make an assessment in September on "how far the parties have met these steps", but that no one would have a veto over the decision.

He took the decision after recalling his cabinet during the summer holidays on Tuesday to discuss a new proposed peace plan being worked on with other European leaders and how to deliver more humanitarian aid for Gaza's 2.2 million people.

Successive British governments have said they will formally recognise a Palestinian state when the time is right, without ever setting a timetable or specifying the necessary conditions.

With warnings from international aid agencies that people in Gaza are facing starvation, a growing number of lawmakers in Starmer's Labour Party have been asking him to recognise a Palestinian state to raise pressure on Israel.

The issue came to the fore after President Emmanuel Macron said on Thursday France would recognise Palestine as a state in territories Israel captured in the 1967 Middle East war.

Israel and staunch supporter the United States blasted France's move, branding it a reward for Palestinian Hamas militants who ran Gaza and whose attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 triggered the current war.

At the start of the Gaza war in October 2023, when Starmer was the opposition leader, he fully backed Israel's right to defend itself. But his stance has shifted over the years to a tougher approach to Israel, especially since his election as prime minister just over a year ago.

His government dropped the previous government’s challenge over arrest warrants issued by the International Criminal Court for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and has suspended some weapon sales to Israel.

Last month, Britain sanctioned two far-right Israeli cabinet ministers, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, accusing them of repeatedly inciting violence against Palestinians.

Source: Reuters

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Commodity

Gold prices are slightly higher and silver prices near steady in early U.S. trading Tuesday. The stronger U.S. dollar index that hit a five-week high overnight is a daily bearish “outside-market” element for the precious metals. Metals traders are also tentative as a major central bank meeting is getting under way. August gold was last up $4.00 at $3,314.00. September silver prices were last down $0.001 at $38.22.

The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting begins this morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The Fed is widely expected to leave its benchmark Fed funds rate range unchanged this week. However, after being admonished by President Trump to lower U.S. interest rates, many market watchers think Powell might indicate at this meeting the Fed could lean easier on the Fed’s monetary policy intentions this fall.

Asian and European stocks were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly higher openings today in New York

In other overnight news, posting on social media late Monday in Scotland, President Trump said he is not seeking a summit with Chinese leader Xi but is considering going to China at Xi’s invitation. This comes as U.S. and China trade officials are meeting this week in Stockholm, Sweden. “Trump is facing increased criticism from China hawks in Washington that he’s conceding too much to secure a breakthrough with Xi on trade,” reports Bloomberg. U.S. and Chinese officials Tuesday started a second day of talks aimed at extending their tariff truce beyond a 90-day period that expires in two weeks.

Did the U.S. get the better end of the trade deal with the EU? The currency markets think so. The U.S. dollar index overnight climbed to a five-week high, while the Euro currency dropped below $1.16. The Euro extended Monday’s 1.3% decline, which was the sharpest one-day drop in over two months and hit its weakest level since June 20. “There is growing investor concern that the newly announced trade deal between the U.S. and the European Union disproportionately benefits the U.S., offering little to improve the eurozone’s economic outlook,” reports TradingEconomics.com.

Gold could hit $4,000 an ounce by the end of 2026, according to Fidelity International. That’s due to Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and central banks adding gold to their holdings. Fidelity International's Ian Samson said the firm remains bullish on gold, citing a clearer path to a more dovish Federal Reserve and the potential for a softer U.S. dollar. Samson said gold's appeal as a hard asset will continue to be reinforced by growing fiscal deficits, and said the precious metal is not necessarily overstretched in the context of a bull run.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher and hitting a five-week high. Nymex crude oil futures are near steady and trading around $66.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently at 4.394%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, advance economic indicators, the monthly house price index, the S&P Core Logic home indexes, and the consumer confidence index.

Gold price up a bit as FOMC meeting on deck_1

Technically, August gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the July high of $3,451.70. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $3,250.50. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $3,345.40 and then at last Friday’s high of $3,376.60. First support is seen at this week’s low of $3,300.00 and then at $3,275.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

Gold price up a bit as FOMC meeting on deck_2

September silver futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $40.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $36.00. First resistance is seen at $39.00 and then at $39.57. Next support is seen at $38.00 and then at $37.73. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

Source:kitco

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Devin

Economic

U.S. and Chinese officials finished two days of talks in Stockholm on Tuesday that were aimed at tackling longstanding economic disputes and stepping back from an escalating trade war between the world's two biggest economies.

While announcing no breakthroughs, China's top trade negotiator Li Chenggang said the two sides agreed to push for an extension of a 90-day tariff truce struck in mid-May, without specifying when and for how long such an extension could come into force.

The talks could pave the way for a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later in the year, though Trump denied going out of his way to seek one and Chinese officials did not mention it.

After months of threatening high tariffs on trading partners, Trump has secured trade deals with the European Union, Japan, and others, but China's powerhouse economy and grip on global rare earth flows make these talks particularly complex.

Both sides in May walked back from imposing triple-digit tariffs on each other in what would have amounted to a bilateral trade embargo. But global supply chains and financial markets could face renewed turmoil without an agreement.

Underlining the stakes, the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday raised its global growth forecast but flagged a potential rebound in tariff rates as a major risk.