Nexperia Says Clients Still Reporting Imminent Production Halts

Tokyo's inflation held steady and industrial output unexpectedly rose, keeping the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on track to consider an interest rate hike in December or January.

Consumer prices excluding fresh food in the capital advanced 2.8% in November from a year earlier, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications on Friday. Faster gains in electricity costs helped offset slower increases in processed food prices. The result was a tad stronger than the median economist forecast of 2.7% and matched the result for the previous month.

The measure that also strips out energy also increased 2.8%, unchanged from last month. Service prices, a vital component to gauge the sustainability of inflation, increased 1.5% from a year earlier. Rice prices, a driving force for this year's price gains, rose 37.9%, continuing to decelerate after the pace hit a record high of 93.8% in April.

The data, a leading indicator for national price trends, are likely to instill confidence in the BOJ that the probability of its economic outlook being realised is rising. The figures may give traders' bets on a December interest rate hike another boost after such speculation mounted recently.

"Overall, there was nothing in today's data to stop the BOJ from mulling a rate hike," said Taro Saito, head of economic research at NLI Research Institute. "My base case is a hike in January but it will be determined after considering the yen and politics."

What Bloomberg Economics says..."Tokyo's November CPI data show inflation remains sticky, supported by solid wage growth, stronger price expectations, and the rollback of energy subsidies. With Tokyo's trend pointing to national inflation near 3%... the reading would bolster confidence that price growth is persistent enough to justify further scaling back stimulus as early as December." — Taro Kimura, economist

The yen was little changed around 156.25 to the dollar after the data, while stocks were narrowly mixed.

The high cost of living is a primary focus of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's government. She unveiled her first economic package last week to tackle the problem. While gains in processed food slowed, the pace remained elevated at 6.5%. In addition to rice, chocolate and coffee contributed to gains.

The number of price increases by Japan's major food companies is set to reach 20,609 this year, rising 64.6% from the previous year, Teikoku Databank reported Friday.

In other data Friday, industrial production rose 1.4% in October from September, beating the consensus estimate of a 0.6% decline, while rising 1.5% from a year earlier, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry reported. Car production rebounded as the US-Japan trade deal cut auto tariffs to 15% from 27.5%, while artificial intelligence (AI) demand gave a boost to information and communications equipment.

"The data suggest manufacturing is recovering from earlier US tariff hits," said Taro Kimura, economist at Bloomberg Economics. "This reinforces the Bank of Japan's assessment at its October meeting that downside risks to growth are easing."

Separately, the jobless rate held steady at 2.6% and the jobs-to-applicant ratio nudged lower to 1.18 in October, meaning there were 118 jobs offered for every 100 applicants.

In an interview with Bloomberg this week, Tomoko Yoshino, the leader of Japan's largest labor union group, urged Takaichi's government to do more to fight inflation as the yen could help inflation continue to outpace nominal wage growth. Real wages have fallen for the last nine months. Yoshino's group, Rengo, will be pushing for wage increases exceeding 5% in negotiations with employers that will culminate in March.

Takaichi unveiled an economic stimulus package last Friday with fresh spending totaling ¥17.7 trillion (US$113 billion, or RM466.63 billion), as she focuses on addressing rising costs of living with steps including expanded utility subsidies and a cut in gasoline taxes. SMBC Nikko Securities estimates the direct impact of those measures will shave 0.38 percentage point from Japan's core CPI next year.

"Owing to government gasoline and utility measures, Japan's inflation is going to decelerate quickly from here," Saito said. "I expect Tokyo inflation to be around 2.5% in the next data, but that doesn't mean the price trend will also be going down."

The national key inflation gauge picked up to 3% last month, extending the streak of readings at or above the BOJ's 2% target to more than three and a half years. Elevated costs of living were a primary reason that Takaichi's ruling Liberal Democratic Party suffered setbacks in the last two national elections, losing majorities in both houses of parliament.

BOJ governor Kazuo Ueda has kept the benchmark rate at 0.5% since January, as he awaits more evidence that underlying inflation will achieve the 2% target. With the economy having escaped a devastating impact from US tariffs, as was once feared, almost all BOJ watchers expect a rate hike no later than January.

Kazuo Momma, former BOJ executive director in charge of monetary policy, told Bloomberg this week that the odds of a rate hike are "fairly high" at the December policy meeting, given the recent weakening of the yen. The central bank will deliver its next policy decision on Dec 19.

"Food inflation is expected to subside but a risk is the renewed weakening of the yen," Saito said. "The yen could be boosting upside risks."

Source: Theedgemarkets

Key Points:

USD/JPY took the spotlight in early trading on Friday, November 28. Japanese inflation figures fueled speculation about a Bank of Japan rate hike. The sticky inflation figures coincided with reports of another solid wage rise in 2026, two key considerations for policymakers.

A weaker Japanese yen may also pressure the BoJ to raise interest rates, given the upward pressure on import prices. Higher import prices erode household purchasing power, weighing on private consumption.

Crucially, rising expectations of a BoJ rate hike clash with bets on a December Fed rate cut, signaling a reversal of USD/JPY's November gains.

Tokyo Inflation and Retail Sales Spotlight the BoJ

Headline inflation for Tokyo increased 2.7% year-on-year in November, easing from 2.8% in October. However, the so-called core-core inflation rate held steady at 2.8%, well above the BoJ's 2% target.

November's data supported economists' predictions for a December rate hike. In the November Reuters poll, conducted between November 11 and 18, 43 of 81 economists expected the BoJ to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% on December 19.

Meanwhile, consumers opened their purse strings in October, indicating an economic recovery in the fourth quarter. Retail sales rose by 1.7% year-on-year, up sharply from a 0.2% increase in September. Rising consumer spending may fuel demand-driven inflation, bolstering the case for tighter monetary policy, given that inflation remains well above the BoJ's target.

Wage Growth Trends Strengthen the Policy Narrative

Friday's data followed updates from wage negotiations, with Japanese labor unions calling for another hefty wage hike in the spring of 2026. Notably, early signs of strong wage growth would ease the BoJ's concerns over US tariffs having a longer-term impact on the Japanese economy. Higher wages could boost private consumption, which accounts for around 55% of GDP.

For context, the Japanese economy contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter after expanding by 0.6% the previous quarter. Private consumption increased just 0.1% in the quarter, down from 0.4% in the second quarter.

Policy Risks: The Carry Trade Curveball

One potential curveball for USD/JPY could be the BoJ's concerns about market disruption. In July 2024, the BoJ cut the purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) and raised interest rates, sending USD/JPY below 140. The stronger yen triggered a carry trade unwind, leading to heavy losses across global equity and crypto markets. A BoJ rate hike, coupled with a Fed rate cut, may lead to another yen carry trade unwind, something policymakers may wish to avoid.

USD/JPY edged higher after the inflation and retail sales figures, despite a potential narrowing of US-Japan interest rate differentials in favor of the yen.

USDJPY – Daily Chart – 281125 – Yen Carry Trade Unwind

Fed Speakers in the Spotlight

While speculation about a BoJ rate hike intensifies, traders should closely monitor FOMC member speeches. Ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, policymakers raised expectations of a December Fed rate cut.

Growing calls for further monetary policy easing next month could lead markets to fully price in a policy adjustment. A more hawkish BoJ and more dovish Fed may send USD/JPY toward 150.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a December cut has soared from 39.1% on November 20 to 86.9% on November 28.

USD/JPY Scenarios: Diverging Monetary Policies

USDJPY – Daily Chart – 281125

Key Market Drivers to Watch Today:

Source: FX Empire

China's leading telecommunication firms Huawei and ZTE,have won a string of contracts this year to supply 5G equipment in Vietnam, in another sign of Hanoi's strengthening bonds with Beijing, stirring concern among Western officials, seven people with direct knowledge of the situation told Reuters.

For years, Vietnam was seen as reluctant to use Chinese technology in sensitive infrastructure, but in recent months it has embraced Chinese tech companies as sometimes frosty relations with its northern neighbour have warmed while ties with Washington have soured over tariffs on Vietnamese goods.

While Sweden's Ericsson (ERICb.ST), opens new tab and Finland's Nokia (NOKIA.HE), opens new tab secured contracts for Vietnam's 5G core infrastructure, with U.S. chipmaker Qualcomm (QCOM.O), opens new tab providing network equipment, Chinese companies have begun winning smaller tenders with state-owned operators, so far unreported public procurement data shows.

A consortium including Huawei was awarded a $23 million contract for 5G equipment in April, weeks after the White House announced tariffs on Vietnamese goods. ZTE has won at least two contracts, one last week, totalling more than $20 million for 5G antennas. The first publicly disclosed deal came in September, a month after U.S. tariffs took effect.

Reuters could not establish whether the timing of these wins was linked to U.S. tariffs, but the deals raised concerns among Western officials.

The exclusion of Chinese contractors from Vietnam's digital infrastructure, including undersea fibre-optic cables, has long been identified by Washington as a key condition for support in advanced technologies.

Huawei and ZTE are banned from U.S. telecom networks as an "unacceptable risk" to national security. Sweden and other European countries have similar restrictions.

Ericsson declined to comment on Chinese companies, but said it was "fully committed to support its customers in Vietnam."

Huawei, ZTE, Nokia, Qualcomm, the U.S. embassy in Vietnam, China's embassy, Sweden's foreign ministry or Vietnam's tech ministry responded to requests for comment.

VIETNAM-CHINA TIES WARM

The unaligned Southeast Asian nation is a crucial battleground in the competition for global influence. Its proximity to China has made it a major industrial hub for multinationals such as Apple, Samsung and Nike, which rely on Chinese components and Western consumers.

Under Western pressure, Vietnam long took "a wait-and-see approach" to Chinese technology, said Nguyen Hung, a specialist in supply chains at RMIT University Vietnam. But "Vietnam has its own priorities," he added, noting the new deals could spur deeper economic integration with China.

Hanoi and Beijing have made progress recently on other sensitive projects, including cross-border rail links and special economic zones close to the Chinese border, which Vietnam had previously discarded as security risks.

Huawei lost multiple bids this year on 5G equipment in Vietnam, according to tender data. But it has cooperated on technical services, and signed an agreement in June on 5G technology transfers with Viettel, Vietnam's army-owned main telecom operator, according to Vietnam's defence ministry.

Viettel did not respond to a request for comment. One person at the company said Chinese technology was cheaper. The sources declined to be named because the information they shared was not public.

WESTERN CONCERNS

The Chinese contracts have been discussed in at least two meetings of senior Western officials in Hanoi in recent weeks, diplomatic sources said. In one meeting, a U.S. official warned they could undermine trust in Vietnam's networks and jeopardise access to U.S. advanced technology.

In a meeting this month officials explored whether areas using Chinese technology could be sealed off from the rest of the network to prevent data leaks, one of the sources said.

But suppliers of antennas and equipment could still gain access to network data, said Innocenzo Genna, a telecommunications lawyer, noting "Western contractors may face the awkward prospect of working alongside firms they do not trust."

Source: Reuters

The Trump administration is reviewing permanent residency status of immigrants from 19 countries

The Trump administration has ordered a full review of permanent residency status — so-called "Green Cards" — of immigrants from 19 countries, in the wake of the attack on two US National Guard personnel in Washington, DC.

An Afghan national who entered the US in 2021 after working with American military and intelligence services in Afghanistan has been arrested in connection with Wednesday's shooting near the White House.

On Thursday, US President Donald Trump confirmed the death of one of the two National Guard members who was shot.

In response to the shooting, Joseph Edlow, director of the US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), said on X: "I have directed a full scale, rigorous reexamination of every Green Card for every alien from every country of concern."

Afghanistan, Iran, Somalia, Libya, Yemen, Cuba, Venezuela among countries listed

The full-scale review of residency status, at the behest of President Donald Trump and carried out by the USCIS, comes after the suspect from Wednesday's shooting was identified as Afghan national Rahmanullah L.

The 19 countries under scrutiny were named in a June proclamation, which had initially imposed entry restrictions on nationals from states deemed deficient in screening and vetting protocols.

Among the countries listed are Afghanistan, Iran, Somalia, Libya and Yemen, as well as Cuba, Venezuela, Chad, and Eritrea.

Critics warn the policy risks penalizing hundreds of thousands of lawful permanent residents based solely on nationality.

Whether the review will lead to revocations or deportations remains unclear.

For now, the administration frames it as a protective measure aimed at national security in light of the DC attack.

Source: DW

Core consumer prices in Japan's capital rose 2.8% in November from a year earlier, data showed on Friday, exceeding the central bank's 2% target and keeping alive market expectations for a near-term interest rate hike.

The increase in the Tokyo core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food costs, compared with a median market forecast for a 2.7% rise. It followed a 2.8% gain in October.

A separate index for Tokyo that strips away both fresh food and fuel costs - closely watched by the Bank of Japan as a measure of demand-driven prices - rose 2.8% in November from a year earlier after a 2.8% increase in October.

The BOJ exited a decade-long, radical stimulus programme last year and raised short-term interest rates to 0.5% in January on the view Japan was on the cusp of sustainably hitting its 2% inflation target.

While consumer inflation has exceeded the BOJ's 2% target for well over three years, Governor Kazuo Ueda has stressed the need to tread cautiously in further rate hikes on uncertainty over the impact of U.S. tariffs on Japan's economy.

Source: Investing

Tokyo consumer price index inflation remained unexpectedly steady in November amid high food prices, with underlying inflation also remaining well ahead of the Bank of Japan's annual target.

Tokyo core CPI, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, grew 2.8% year-on-year in November, government data showed on Friday. The print was slightly above expectations of 2.7% and remained steady from the prior month's reading.

A core CPI reading that excludes both fresh food and energy prices remained steady at 2.8% in November, above the BOJ's 2% annual target. The print is closely watched as a gauge of underlying inflation by the central bank.

Headline Tokyo CPI inflation read flat at 2.7%.

Friday's print showed Japanese food price inflation remained mostly upbeat, with rice prices continuing to increase at an outsized pace. Dairy prices also increased sharply in the month.

The country is grappling with a prolonged rice shortage due to a mix of poor harvests, an aging farming population, and some policies against importing the grain, which pushed up food prices. Higher food prices were in turn a major driver of CPI inflation this year.

Tokyo CPI inflation usually acts as a bellwether for national inflation, with November's print indicating that Japanese inflation is likely to remain sticky. It also comes after a series of firm inflation prints through the second half of 2025.

Sticky inflation gives the BOJ more impetus to hike interest rates, with the central bank having recently signaled it will consider raising rates in its December meeting.

But rate hikes by the BOJ put it at odds with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's government, which has broadly called for looser monetary conditions and more fiscal spending to support economic growth.

Source: Investing