Markets Rally on Trump’s Move—But is This A Win Or Just Delayed Risk?

Economic

Stocks

Summary:

The markets will claim the win and I think some in Asia who had been building a positioning in risk over the past two days will be feeling pretty heroic today, even if the gains offset losses crystalised over the days prior…. The fact Trump even had to take this course of action to mitigate the increasing dislocations in markets and the massive volatility seen in the long end of the US Treasury curve is hardly a win for anyone - and one considers that if Trump hadn’t acted when he did that we may have edged closer to some sort of liquidity-driven market event.

And… are we really at a point of renewed certainty where senior executives will congregate in the boardrooms and have the visibility that was previously lacking to forge capex plans and be confident enough to offer explicit guidance in the upcoming reporting period? Absolutely not, and good luck to anyone attempting to model future US economics – from the US growth and recession calls being put out, and then subsequently changed just hours later, economists are all over the place in their thinking, and while the implied probability of a US recession (over the coming 12 months) has been walked back from market pricing, 90 days is an eternity in markets – the Fed aren't coming to the party as soon as some would hope – and the uncertainty still so high that the risk to the incoming economic data remains skewed towards weaker surprises.

Asia has rightfully fired up today, with huge gains in the NKY225 and ASX200 cash equity markets and follow-through buying in NZD, AUD, gold, crude, and copper… European equity markets are flying on open, although DAX futures have come a touch off their highs, while NAS100 futures are 1.8% lower through Asia.

Of course, it's hard to read too much into a 1.8% decline in US equity futures, as we may just be seeing fast money accounts taking profits after a lazy 10% move and say, ‘Thanks very much for playing', and a 1.8% move in the context of recent volatility doesn't impact like it once would, but it's well worth monitoring. Digging into the move though, we've seen net selling in our US 24-hour share CFDs through Asia (Nvidia -2.2%, Apple -2.3%, Tesla -3.9%). In the volatility space, S&P500 1-week ATM implied volatility has lifted an impressive +7 vols to 41%, suggesting vol traders still see residual risk in the system and volatility back at levels – along with gold - that offers a compelling tail hedge should things become precarious again. If implied volatility really kicks up from here, then equity will be sold, and liquidity will remain a concern.

Calmer conditions can be seen in US Treasuries, which is a net positive for risk given the vol in the US 30yr was a core consideration for Trump to pause tariffs at 10%. Last night's strong US 10-year Treasury auction was clearly helpful as it showed solid demand - notably from foreign entities - at a time when many were feeling the bid had completely come out of the market - but the buying we're seeing across the curve today is perhaps indicative that the bond market still sees obvious downside risk to US growth.

We look to the $22b US 30yr Treasury auction and US core CPI in US trade ahead, and both carry two-way risk for traders…for now, most are still shell-shocked after one of the most incredible reactions to what was a highly reluctant call from Trump. There is also still a high degree of pessimism that the risk rally can build from here - that in itself suggests some ability for equity and risk FX to climb the wall of worry. But having found sellers at the 50% retracement of the recent 20%+ drawdown in the SPX500 and NAS100, the bulls will need to remain composed and step up and follow-through with the buying flow in the session ahead if this is to be more than a rapid-fire 1-day relief rally, knowing that we're still very much in a headline-driven world.

Good luck to all.

Source: Pepperstone

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Warren Takunda

Economic

London stocks surged in early trade on Thursday, taking their cue from whopping gains in the US and Asia after Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for most countries except China.

At 0845 BST, the FTSE 100 was up 5.4% at 8,096.00.

Trump said on Wednesday that countries that were subjected to reciprocal tariff rates would see the rate go back down to 10% to allow for trade negotiations.

In a post on his social media platform Truth Social, Trump said: "Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets, I am hereby raising the tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately.

"At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realise that the days of ripping off the USA, and other countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable"

Speaking to reporters after the announcement, he said: "China wants to make a deal, they just don’t know how quite to go about it."

Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: "The White House has finally seen some sense and given a whole host of countries a 90 day pause, with reciprocal tariffs immediately lowered to 10%, while isolating China in a tense battle.

"Was this Trump caving to pressure or his master plan all along? Who knows, but markets ripped on the news with the S&P 500 posting its 9th best day in history and the FTSE 100 opening a more subdued 1.2% higher this morning.

"We still don’t know if this tariff strategy is going to do more harm than good, and this should not be confused with a resolution to the underlying impact on areas like inflation and global growth. But it does give a host of countries a chance to come to the table and barter for a deal, while offering companies some much needed time to make whatever supply chain adjustments they can.

"What this means for the EU is still unclear, but given countermeasures were already declared it could find itself on Trump’s naughty list, as ever we await more clarity."

On home shores, a survey showed that activity across the housing market slowed last month as price growth flattened out and new buyer demand slowed.

According to the latest Residential Market Survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, the house price balance fell to 2 in March, from 11 in February and 20 in January.

New buyer demand, meanwhile, declined from -16 a month earlier to -32, the weakest reading since September 2023.

Respondents said the rush to complete sales before changes to stamp duty came into effect on 1 April tailed off as the month wore on.

Agreed sales were also marginally softer, down three points on February at -16.

Looking ahead, a majority of survey participants still expect sales volumes to rise long term. But they were more cautious shorter-term, with the three-month sales expectations pointing to a further dip in activity.

Rics noted: "Looking to next month, the impact on the UK property market from newly-imposed US global tariffs and potential tariff responses by other nations may stimulate further uncertainty going forward."

Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at Rics, said: "The expiry of the stamp duty break was always going to lead to a pause in activity in the sales market.

"However, the latest results, and indeed the anecdotal remarks from respondents to the survey, suggest that the shift in sentiment has been aggravated by the slew of negative macro news flow over the past few weeks.

"Looking forward, the impact on the market will in no small part depend on how the economy is affected by the emerging trade war and the response of the Bank of England to the shifting environment."

In equity markets, Barclays was the top performer on the FTSE 100, up 15.5%, closely followed by Melrose Industries and St James’s Place.

On the FTSE 250, Bodycote, Computacenter and Watches of Switzerland all racked up strong gains.

On the downside, Tesco slid as it warned profits in the current year could be squeezed, as competition from rivals ramps up.

The UK’s biggest grocer said group sales in the year to February 2025, excluding VAT and fuel, had jumped 3.5% to £63.64bn.

Group adjusted operating profits rose 10.6% to at £3.13bn, of which retail adjusted operating profit rose 7.7% at £2.97bn.

However, looking to the current year, the supermarket chain adopted a more cautious tone, following a "further increase in the competitive intensity of the UK market".

As a result, it now expects group adjusted operating profit to come in between £2.7bn and £3.0bn in the 2025/26 full year.

Sainsbury’s and Marks & Spencer also lost ground.

Source: Sharecast

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Golden Gleam

Technical Analysis

Weak US fundamentals could trigger a rally in Gold (XAUUSD) towards 3,185 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 10 April 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March: previously at 2.8%, projected at 2.5%
US initial jobless claims: previously at 219 thousand, projected at 223 thousand
Current trend: moving upwards
XAUUSD forecast for 10 April 2025: 3,185 and 3,100

Fundamental analysis

The Consumer Price Index reflects changes in consumer prices of goods and services, helping assess changes in buying trends and economic stagnation. A lower-than-expected reading typically has a negative effect on the national currency.

The XAUUSD forecast for 10 April 2025 suggests the CPI may come in below the previous reading of 2.8%, with forecasts around 2.5%. Today’s fundamental analysis for XAUUSD shows that a weaker CPI would likely weigh on the US dollar.

US initial jobless claims represent the number of people who claimed unemployment benefits for the first time during the previous week. This indicator measures the labour market climate, with an increase in initial jobless claims indicating rising unemployment.

The previous figure was 219 thousand, so today’s forecast is positive for XAUUSD prices, suggesting an increase to 223 thousand. Although the change is modest, any reading that meets or exceeds expectations could positively impact XAUUSD quotes.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices have formed a Harami reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger band. A bullish wave is developing as this signal plays out. The uptrend will likely continue as prices remain within an ascending channel, with the potential upside target at the 3,185 USD resistance level.

However, the XAUUSD technical analysis for today also suggests an alternative scenario, where prices correct towards 3,100 USD before maintaining their upward trajectory.

Summary

Amid weak forecasts for US economic data, XAUUSD prices continue their upward momentum. Technical analysis supports a move towards 3,185 USD, with a potential correction to 3,100 USD before testing the resistance level.

Source: RoboForex

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Glendon

Cryptocurrency

Economic

In the early hours today, the cryptocurrency market experienced a notable surge, with Bitcoin nearing the $82,000 mark. This uptick is largely credited to unexpected tariff adjustments introduced by U.S. President Donald Trump. The positive momentum in global markets has had a significant impact on the cryptocurrency sector.

What Are the Gains in Major Cryptocurrencies?

Traders observed remarkable increases not only in Bitcoin but also across several major altcoins. Cryptocurrencies such as XRP, Ether, Cardano, BNB, Solana, and Dogecoin saw rises between 10% and 12%. Consequently, the total market capitalization surged by around 6%, with some mid-cap tokens climbing as much as 30%.

How Do U.S. Tariff Changes Impact Global Trade?

The suspension of high tariffs by the Trump administration on nations outside China has reverberated through global markets, setting new expectations among traders. Stock markets mirrored these gains, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rising by 9.5% and 12%, respectively. Experts believe this could signal a potential restructuring in global trade dynamics.

Jeff Mei, COO of BTSE, noted that the market’s growth stems from the anticipation of renewed trade negotiations with key partners. Mei indicated that if tariffs against China are altered, it could fundamentally change trade relationships. HashKey Capital’s Jupiter Zheng mentioned that this recent rally might suggest that the challenging days for the market are fading.

Despite this optimistic trend, a cautious sentiment prevails among market participants. Investors are closely monitoring international trade talks and regulatory developments. Positive indicators from U.S. regulations are bolstering medium and long-term outlooks.

While a new rally in the cryptocurrency market seems probable, potential corrections should be kept in mind. Ongoing global uncertainties, inflation fears, and political risks will significantly shape future market movements. However, the current uptrend shows that traders are regaining their appetite for risk.

Bitcoin approaches $82,000 due to tariff changes.
Major altcoins see gains between 10% and 12%.
Stock markets experience significant recoveries as well.
Investors remain cautious but optimistic about long-term prospects.

For long-term investors, the current climate may offer substantial opportunities. As regulatory clarity improves, institutional players may gain greater confidence to enter the market. Yet, the theme of cautious optimism prevails as the landscape evolves.

Source: CryptoSlate

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FastBull Featured

Daily News

[Quick Facts]

1. President Trump has suspended reciprocal measures for most economies, but 10% tariffs and sector-specific duties remain in effect

2. Kashkari: Tariffs exacerbate inflation, raising the bar for rate cuts

3. The German CDU/CSU alliance and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) have unveiled their coalition agreement

4. House Republicans reportedly move to block vote on repealing Trump Tariffs

5. Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes: Tariff increases could elevate inflation, heightening economic uncertainty

6. Timiraos: Fed officials highlight "more persistent" inflation risks from tariffs

[News Details]

President Trump has suspended reciprocal measures for most economies, but 10% tariffs and sector-specific duties remain in effect

Early Thursday morning (UTC+8), President Trump halted the comprehensive reciprocal tariffs that took effect on April 9. However, he maintained the 10% baseline tariffs on all goods entering the U.S., which went into effect on April 5, and continued sector-specific duties. He also hinted at potential future tariffs. Consequently, numerous trading partners temporarily avoided the high tariffs of 11%-50% that Trump announced last week. The 25% steel and aluminum tariffs, effective March 12, and the 25% tariffs on automobiles and parts, effective April 2nd, remain in force. Automotive components compliant with the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) will continue to have zero tariffs until the U.S. Customs and Border Protection "establishes a process for imposing tariffs on their non-U.S. products." Furthermore, Trump stated on Tuesday that significant tariffs on pharmaceuticals are forthcoming.

Kashkari: Tariffs exacerbate inflation, raising the bar for rate cuts

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari stated that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates, even if the economy begins to deteriorate, due to the inflationary impact of tariffs. Kashkari noted that the tariffs imposed by U.S. President Trump are "more extensive and higher than anticipated," and he anticipates these tariffs will elevate inflation "at least in the short term" while simultaneously dampening investment and economic expansion.

The German CDU/CSU alliance and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) have unveiled their coalition agreement

The German CDU/CSU alliance, comprising the Christian Democratic Union and the Christian Social Union, and the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) presented a coalition agreement at a press conference on the 9th. According to the agreement, the ruling coalition aims to alleviate the burden on German citizens and businesses through tax cuts. The coalition partners have collectively agreed to tighten refugee policies. Furthermore, the coalition has decided to establish a National Security Council within the Federal Chancellery to coordinate comprehensive security policies and conduct joint assessments of the situation. In addition, the aforementioned agreement outlines the departmental allocations for each party within the coalition: the CDU controls the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy, and five other ministries, as well as the Chancellery. The SPD will oversee the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Defense, and six other ministries, while the CSU will manage the Ministry of the Interior and two other ministries.

House Republicans reportedly move to block vote on repealing Trump Tariffs

According to a source, House Republicans are set to take action on Wednesday to prevent Democrats from forcing a public vote on President Trump's global tariff measures. Although the Democratic resolution to repeal the tariffs would likely be vetoed by the President, a House vote would compel each member to publicly declare their stance on import tariffs that could potentially increase consumer prices. This strategy by the Republicans could transform a crucial procedural vote on Trump's tax and spending plan, originally scheduled for Wednesday, into an indirect referendum on Trump's comprehensive tariff policy. Markets have been significantly disrupted since the tariffs were announced last week, leading to predictions of an economic recession.

Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes: Tariff increases could elevate inflation, heightening economic uncertainty

According to the minutes from the Federal Reserve's March meeting, released on April 9, participants noted that the existing economic data indicates continued solid economic expansion and a generally balanced labor market, despite inflation remaining elevated. A consensus emerged among the participants regarding the increased economic uncertainty.

Regarding inflation, the participants acknowledged a significant moderation over the past two years, although it still exceeds the committee's 2% long-term target. The impact of this year's tariff increases could potentially drive up inflation, though the extent of this impact remains highly uncertain. Several participants highlighted that the intensity (larger) and scope (broader) of the announced or planned tariffs exceeded the expectations of many of their business contacts.

The majority of participants noted an increase in short-term inflation expectations, as indicated by recent market-based or survey-based metrics. However, a consensus emerged that most longer-term inflation indicators remained stable, potentially exerting downward pressure on inflation.

Regarding the labor market, the minutes revealed that participants generally viewed labor market conditions as balanced, with unemployment holding steady at relatively low levels and nominal wage growth continuing to moderate. While average job gains have recently slowed, they remain stable. Several participants expressed concern that reductions in federal government positions and funding were beginning to impact employment within federal contractors, universities, hospitals, municipalities, and non-profit organizations, with many entities reliant on government contracts reporting layoffs or hiring freezes.

Monetary policy is positioned to respond to evolving conditions: maintaining restrictive policy for an extended period if inflation persists, or easing policy if labor market conditions deteriorate or economic activity weakens.

Timiraos: Fed officials highlight "more persistent" inflation risks from tariffs

According to "Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos, Federal Reserve officials, during the previous month's meeting where they decided to hold interest rates steady, underscored the risks of more enduring inflationary pressures stemming from tariffs. The meeting minutes stated, "Most participants noted the possibility that inflationary effects from various factors could prove more persistent than they had anticipated." The minutes revealed that officials at the previous month's meeting considered their interest rate positioning to be "well-placed" to address potential risks. The minutes indicated that the Fed might lower interest rates if labor market conditions deteriorated, or maintain rates if inflation worsened. However, several policymakers noted that they might "face difficult trade-offs" if inflation proved more persistent while growth and employment prospects weakened.

[Today's Focus]

UTC+8 18:00 Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock Speaks

UTC+8 18:00 German Bundesbank Monthly Report

UTC+8 20:30 U.S. March CPI

UTC+8 21:00 Bank of England Deputy Governor Broadbent Speaks

UTC+8 21:30 Dallas Fed President Logan Speaks

UTC+8 00:00 Chicago Fed President Goolsbee Speaks

UTC+8 00:30 Philadelphia Fed President Harker Speaks

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Saif

Cryptocurrency

The tariffs remedy decades-old trade inequities in which other nations have exploited U.S. economic leniency, Draper said. Such steps could reinvigorate domestic industries and promote technological progress, he argues. Draper also argues that an environment like this makes Bitcoin an increasingly attractive hedge against inflation and bad monetary policy.

Draper’s Support of Tariffs

The veteran free trader Tim Draper has been uncharacteristically loud about what the Trump administration did to tariffs on U.S. imports. Draper said he generally favored open markets but recognized the necessity of time-sensitive action given that trade imbalances persist.

“Normally, I’m for free trade all the time, but I get it completely. President Trump is making the only move available. The other countries have been taking advantage of the decades of goodwill shown by the U.S.—and they must understand that it is a two-way street.”

he said. Draper also took aim at China’s leadership, saying that “weak leaders like socialist Xi” will allow their egos to cloud their nations’ successes.

Bitcoin to $150K? Draper Says Trade War Will Fuel Crypto Surge

Implications for Bitcoin

“U.S. tariffs are setting the stage for bitcoin.”

Tim Draper: All of those scenarios are favorable for Bitcoin buyers, he added. It is inflation-proof and innovation-forward. With inflationary pressures and policy uncertainty on the rise, Draper believes Bitcoin will continue to fester under these conditions.

He also took the Federal Reserve to task, saying it should be looking ahead to what new jobs might be coming rather than worrying about fears of stagflation. Reducing interest rates would favor innovation and reinforce the arguments for decentralized assets such as Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Market Performance Today

Bitcoin is trading at $77,267 by the exchange’s closing on April 9, 2025, down 2.6% from yesterday’s close. The cryptocurrency was highly volatile during the day, hitting an intraday low of $74,772 and an intraday high of $80,138.

This plunge demonstrates the volatility of the market, as investors closely monitor global economic events like trade tensions and interest rate decisions. Analysts monitor These fluctuations closely as investors weigh Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against inflation and macroeconomic uncertainty.

Price Forecasts in the Midst of Tariff Tensions

The current trade tensions and the ongoing tariff impositions have resulted in different predictions at the moment concerning Bitcoin’s future performance:

Short-Term Readings: According to analyst Tracy Jin, Bitcoin will likely see a drop to between $76,000 and $78,000 by late April 2025, with a possible drop to the $52,000–$56,000 range by the summer as the tariff disputes put economic pressure on the industry.

Long-Haul Predictions: On the other hand, a number of analysts have a more bullish view. For example, MarketVector Indexes’ Martin Leinweber asserts, based on the historical trend, that Bitcoin might form a cycle top of $150,000 in 2025.

Such forecasts highlight the uncertainty and volatility existent in the cryptocurrency market, driven by macroeconomic policy and geopolitical changes.

Bitcoin to $150K? Draper Says Trade War Will Fuel Crypto Surge

Conclusion

Data through October 2023 On the economic policy side of the picture, President Trump has issued tariffs that have galvanized support for aggressive economic intervention from investors like Tim Draper, who think it further strengthens the case for Bitcoin.

The cryptocurrency market remains extremely unpredictable, though. Bitcoin’s next direction is the subject of both bullish and bearish analyses as global trade tensions move markets. Some consider these conditions to be supportive of Bitcoin’s store of value role, though others warn that increased volatility could still dominate in the shorter term.

Source: CryptoSlate

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Owen Li

Economic

Despite the prediction of a slowdown, Musalem does not foresee a recession. His outlook is based on a combination of factors including slipping confidence, higher prices, and a hit to household wealth.

Musalem noted that financial conditions have tightened, but he does not see any market dysfunction in the recent volatility. He indicated that markets are responding to reassessments of global growth. There is a growing tension between the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate goals as the risks of slower growth and higher inflation start to materialize.

While inflation expectations remain anchored, Musalem stressed the importance of the Federal Reserve’s role in keeping them that way. He warned that it would be risky to assume the Federal Reserve can overlook higher prices resulting from tariffs, suggesting that some effects could persist.

He emphasized the need for a balanced approach to monetary policy as long as inflation expectations remain anchored. Musalem also mentioned that businesses are not resorting to layoffs, but are instead adopting a wait-and-see approach to hiring and capital spending plans.

In the event of higher-than-anticipated tariffs, companies and households may need to adjust to increased prices, potentially leading to a rise in the unemployment rate. Musalem’s stance on monetary policy response will depend on the evolution of inflation and unemployment in the coming months, the persistence of the price shock, and the consistency of inflation expectations with the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target.

Musalem, who has a vote on interest rate policy this year, referred to anchored expectations as a necessary but not sufficient condition for the Federal Reserve to reach its 2% inflation target. He stressed vigilance regarding the risks associated with keeping unemployment low and inflation stable, and committed to maintaining a balanced approach as long as inflation expectations do not threaten to rise.