A Trade Deal Becomes Tangible: Japan Puts Projects on the Table

Energy and AI Dominate the Investment Landscape

Trump's Role and Strategic Leverage

Policy Linkages: Tariff Reductions and Economic Security Goals

Oversight, Selection, and Strategic Alignment Will Determine Success

Source: Bloomberg

Global Shockwaves and Asia’s Decisive Role

India’s Strategic Dilemma: Energy vs. Trade Ambitions

China’s Balancing Act: Strategic Alliance vs. Global Risk

The Shadow Fleet and Oil Laundering: Moscow’s Lifeline

Enforcement Is the Wild Card

Source: Bloomberg

Trade Optimism Sparks U.S. Market Surge

Agriculture and Symbolism: Soybeans Return

HSBC Posts Mixed Results

Saudi Arabia Bets on AI and Diversification

Source: CNBC

Equity bulls are lining up to wager the S&P 500 will surge past 7,000 now that it looks as if a seasonal bout of volatility has passed.

The index powered to a record 6,875 Monday, buoyed by positive signs on trade, expectations for an interest rate cut and strong corporate earnings. With that macro backdrop in place, bulls are pointing to other factors that can take the index past the psychologically important 7,000 level.

Fund flows show retail and institutional investors pouring into the market, while technical analyses show little resistance ahead of the round-number milestone. In a seasonal quirk, the current week stands out as the best for stocks over the past 75 years.

"There's no shortage of catalysts to push risk higher," Michael Romano, head of hedge fund equity derivative sales at UBS Securities, wrote in a note to clients Sunday. "What was once a blue-sky 7,100 into year-end is quickly turning into the base case as the market pulls forward next year's upside."

The optimism will get a stiff test this week, as five of the Magnificent Seven tech behemoths report results on Wednesday and Thursday. A handful of major central bank decisions are also due, from the likes of Japan and Europe, in addition to the Federal Reserve.

If stocks can weather that stretch, seasonal factors look beneficial. The final weeks of the year tend to favor risk assets. In data back to 1985, the Nasdaq 100 has averaged an 8.5% gain from Oct. 20 through year-end, while the S&P 500 returned 4.2% on average, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s trading desk.

More immediately, the last week of October stands out as the single best to be long equities, according to UBS data based on the S&P 500's rolling one-week average returns since 1950.

From a technical standpoint, analysts see further upside. The next resistance level for the S&P 500 sits near 7,000, just 1.8% above Monday's close, said John Kolovos, chief technical strategist at Macro Risk Advisors.

"That will be an important milestone and if the index pushes through, 7,500-7,700 becomes the next target," he said.

Alexander Altmann, Barclays Plc's global head of equities tactical strategies, sees the S&P 500 hitting 7,250 by December's close, citing the index's average absolute annual move of 23% over the past 5 years.

The so-called flow of funds also looks favorable as major investor groups are adding fuel to the rally.

Retail investors, which account for 22% of trading volume in US stocks, have been net buyers in 23 of the past 27 weeks, according to Citadel Securities.

Corporate buybacks that had been paused in the runup to earnings season are allowed again, with Goldman traders noting that the fourth quarter is historically active for repurchases.

Even hedge funds have turned into net buyers of US stocks after two weeks of heavy selling, snapping up equities as Friday's muted inflation data bolstered bets on rate cuts.

That's not to say there are no risks facing a stock market that's rallied 38% from April lows, pushing valuations to levels usually seen in times of bubbles.

While corporate results have been excellent so far, Microsoft Corp., Alphabet Inc., Meta Platforms Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Apple Inc. — representing about a quarter of the S&P 500 by market capitalization — are yet to report results.

"If there's any sign of disappointment, or questions about AI spending not paying off, I expect investors will be quick to punish them," said Dave Mazza, chief executive officer of Roundhill Financial Inc.

On the other hand, tidy beats could give bulls their round number in just a couple days, he said.

"That could be the spark that keeps this rally burning and the S&P 500 can hit 7,000 this week."

Source: Bloomberg Europe

The European Union and China will hold talks this week to address trade disputes as Beijing's restrictions on exports of key minerals and chips risk disrupting Europe's auto industry.The European Commission will receive a Chinese delegation to discuss rare earth restrictions, which sounded alarm bells among governments and firms across the bloc. Preliminary talks were held on Monday to prepare for the arrival of a high-level Chinese technical delegation on Thursday, said Olof Gill, a spokesman for the EU's executive arm.

China announced plans to significantly tighten controls on its exports of rare earths and other critical materials earlier this month. Under the measures, overseas exporters of items that use even traces of certain minerals sourced from China would need an export licence.In a separate dispute, Beijing is blocking Nexperia from exporting products from its affiliate in China. The move was retaliation after the Dutch government took control over the Nijmegen-based company because of concerns that China's Wingtech Technology Co — Nexperia's owner — was seeking to hobble the chipmaker.

The talks in Brussels will coincide with a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea to defuse bilateral trade tensions. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China would delay its expanded licensing regime for minerals by a year while they reexamine it.Brussels and European capitals have been discussing options to address shortages. The turbulence comes as European industry races to boost competitiveness, while disruptions to global commerce intensify pressure from technological changes. European officials have admitted that there are no quick fixes as relations with China continue to sour.

The EU is working on a contingency plan including boosting production of minerals on its soil, diversifying its network of suppliers and reusing some materials. In addition, it wants to set up a joint purchasing and strategic stockpiling centre, the commission said.In parallel, European and Chinese officials have initially discussed allowing temporary exports of Nexperia chips to keep supply flowing while a longer-term solution is negotiated, a person familiar with the matter said. Such a move is seen by the auto industry as the most plausible way to avert widespread production outages, the person added.

"We take the situation facing companies very seriously and are in contact with those affected," Luisa-Maria Spoo, a spokeswoman for the German economy ministry, said Monday in a regular government press briefing in Berlin. "We view potential supply-chain difficulties with concern and are working with China to promote the interests of the German economy."She added that Chancellor Friedrich Merz's administration is in contact with the EU and made its position clear during a meeting on Friday.While the commission is seeking a negotiated solution, the EU executive has also been preparing trade options to retaliate against China's restrictions in an attempt to gain leverage during the talks.

Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said over the weekend that all options are on the table after France's Emmanuel Macron last week called for using the anti-coercion instrument, the EU's most powerful trade tool, in the dispute with China."The essence of China-EU economic and trade relations lies in complementary advantages and mutual benefit," China Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said at a regular press briefing in Beijing on Tuesday. "We hope the European side will honor its commitment to supporting free trade and opposing trade protectionism, refrain from frequently adopting restrictive measures, and instead resolve trade issues through dialogue and consultation."

Source: Theedgemarkets

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