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SYMBOL
LAST
BID
ASK
HIGH
LOW
NET CHG.
%CHG.
SPREAD
SPX
S&P 500 Index
6857.13
6857.13
6857.13
6865.94
6827.13
+7.41
+ 0.11%
--
DJI
Dow Jones Industrial Average
47850.93
47850.93
47850.93
48049.72
47692.96
-31.96
-0.07%
--
IXIC
NASDAQ Composite Index
23505.13
23505.13
23505.13
23528.53
23372.33
+51.04
+ 0.22%
--
USDX
US Dollar Index
98.840
98.920
98.840
98.980
98.810
-0.140
-0.14%
--
EURUSD
Euro / US Dollar
1.16571
1.16578
1.16571
1.16613
1.16408
+0.00126
+ 0.11%
--
GBPUSD
Pound Sterling / US Dollar
1.33476
1.33483
1.33476
1.33519
1.33165
+0.00205
+ 0.15%
--
XAUUSD
Gold / US Dollar
4224.33
4224.67
4224.33
4229.22
4194.54
+17.16
+ 0.41%
--
WTI
Light Sweet Crude Oil
59.314
59.351
59.314
59.469
59.187
-0.069
-0.12%
--

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Russian President Putin Thanks Indian Prime Minister Modi For Attention To Ukraine Peace Efforts

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Russian President Putin: India-Russia Relations Should Grow And Touch New Heights

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Russian President Putin: India Is Not Neutral, India Is On The Side Of Peace

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Russian President Putin: We Support Every Effort Towards Peace

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Russian President Putin: The World Should Return To Peace

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India Prime Minister Modi: We Should All Pursue Peace Together

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Ukmto Says A Vessel Reports Sighting Small Craft At A Range Of 1-2 Cables And They Are Under Fire

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Ukmto Says It Received Reports Of An Incident 15 Nm West Of Yemen

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Dollar/Yen Falls To 154.46, Lowest Since November 17

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Citigroup Sets 2026 STOXX 600 Target At 640 On Fiscal Tailwinds

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Reserve Bank Of India Chief Malhotra On Rupee: Fluctuations Can Happen, Effort Is To Reduce Undue Volatility

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Reserve Bank Of India Chief Malhotra On Rupee: Allow Markets To Determine Levels On Currency

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Sri Lanka's CSE All Share Index Down 1.2%

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Iw Institute: German Economy Faces Tepid Growth In 2026 Due To Global Trade Slowdown

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Stats Office - Seychelles November Inflation At 0.02% Year-On-Year

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[Market Update] Spot Silver Prices Rose 2.00% Intraday, Currently Trading At $58.27 Per Ounce

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S.Africa's Gross Reserves At $72.068 Billion At End November - Central Bank

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[Market Update] Spot Silver Broke Through $58/ounce, Up 1.56% On The Day

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Dollar/Yen Down 0.33% To 154.61

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Kremlin Says No Plans For Putin-Trump Call For Now

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          Lisa Cook Suit Says Her Firing By Trump Puts US Economy At Risk

          Owen Li

          Economic

          Summary:

          Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook’s lawsuit against President Donald Trump portrays his attempt to fire her as a power grab that could cause “irreparable harm” to the US economy.

          Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook’s lawsuit against President Donald Trump portrays his attempt to fire her as a power grab that could cause “irreparable harm” to the US economy.

          The suit disputed Trump’s allegation of mortgage fraud and described as mere pretext to justify firing her and trying to seize control of the Fed. The move is part of a pattern by Trump, Cook says, following his earlier attempt to force out Fed Chair Jerome Powell and pressure the central bank into lowering interest rates.

          Cook asked US District Judge Jia Cobb in Washington to issue a temporary restraining order barring Trump’s firing of her from taking effect as the lawsuit begins. The order is necessary, according to the filing, to preserve the status quo at the Fed and protect the public interests.

          Cobb, an appointee of former President Joe Biden, set an emergency hearing for Friday morning.

          The lawsuit is a major escalation in the growing clash between the White House and the Fed, which has resisted Trump’s demands to lower interest rates.

          Trump insists that he has “cause” to fire Cook and said the allegations against her were sufficient because she’d been previously accused of lying in financial documents.

          “The President determined there was cause to remove a governor who was credibly accused of lying in financial documents from a highly sensitive position overseeing financial institutions,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said in the statement. “The removal of a governor for cause improves the Federal Reserve Board’s accountability and credibility for both the markets and American people.”

          Cook’s lawsuit does not explicitly deny the mortgage fraud claim, but it does highlight a potential defense. The filing suggests that parts of the mortgage applications at issue could have been mislabeled unintentionally.

          Regardless, Cook argues, the alleged conduct doesn’t amount to “cause” to fire her under the Federal Reserve Act because it hasn’t been proven and allegedly took place before her Senate confirmation and isn’t relevant to her job.

          2038 Term

          Cook’s complaint describes Trump’s move against her as “unprecedented and illegal,” arguing that her firing, if allowed to take place, “would be the first of its kind in the Board’s history” and “would jeopardize the independence of the Federal Reserve, and ultimately, the stability of our nation’s financial system.”

          Source: Yahoo Finance

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Nvidia Forecasts Decelerating Growth After Two-Year AI Boom

          Adam

          Economic

          Nvidia Corp., the world’s most valuable company, gave a tepid revenue forecast for the current period, signaling that growth is decelerating after a staggering two-year boom in artificial intelligence spending.
          Sales will be roughly $54 billion in the fiscal third quarter, which runs through October, the company said in a statement Wednesday. Though that was in line with the average Wall Street estimate, some analysts had projected more than $60 billion.
          The outlook adds to concern that the pace of investment in AI systems is unsustainable. Difficulties in China also have clouded Nvidia’s business. Though the Trump administration recently eased curbs on exports of some AI chips to that country, the reprieve hasn’t yet translated into a rebound in revenue.
          Nvidia shares fell about 1.6% in premarket trading before New York exchanges opened on Thursday. They had rallied 35% this year through the close, lifting the company’s market capitalization above $4 trillion.
          During a conference call with analysts Wednesday, the company’s leadership rejected the notion that interest in deploying AI infrastructure was flagging.
          “The opportunity ahead is immense,” Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang said. “We see $3 trillion to $4 trillion in AI infrastructure spend by the end of the decade.”
          The company also approved an additional $60 billion in stock buybacks. Nvidia had $14.7 billion remaining under its previous repurchase plan at the end of the second quarter.
          Sales in that period, which ended July 27, rose 56% to $46.7 billion. That compared with an average estimate of $46.2 billion. Though the gain added more than $16 billion in quarterly revenue from a year earlier, it was the smallest percentage increase in more than two years.
          Second-quarter profit was $1.05 a share, minus certain items. Wall Street was looking for $1.01.
          The data center unit, a division that’s now larger by itself than any other chipmaker, had sales of $41.1 billion. That compares with an average estimate of $41.3 billion. Gaming-related revenue — once Nvidia’s main source of income — was $4.29 billion. Analysts projected $3.8 billion on average. The automotive segment generated $586 million in sales, a bit shy of estimates.
          Heading into the earnings report, Nvidia analysts had a roughly $15 billion gap between their highest and lowest estimates for third-quarter revenue — one of the largest such ranges in the history of the company.
          Nvidia said it didn’t record any sales of its H20 AI chip to China-based customers in the second quarter, a decline of about $4 billion in revenue from the prior period. The third-quarter forecast excluded H20 sales as well.
          Nvidia also noted that the US government hasn’t yet codified its plan to take a 15% cut of revenue from China AI chip sales. And it acknowledged risks to enacting the policy.
          “Any request for a percentage of the revenue by the USG may subject us to litigation, increase our costs, and harm our competitive position and benefit competitors that are not subject to such arrangements,” Nvidia said in a filing.
          Nvidia Forecasts Decelerating Growth After Two-Year AI Boom_1

          Nvidia Sales Growth Decelerates From Eye-Popping Levels | Revenue had been doubling or tripling in recent quarters

          Ultimately, $2 billion to $5 billion in H20 chips could be shipped to China in the current quarter, Nvidia said. The number depends on getting licenses from the US government, clearance that a “few” customers have received so far.
          “If we had more orders, we can bill more,” Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress said during the conference call. She also said the company continues to urge the US government to approve a version of the more up-to-date Blackwell chip for sale in China.
          “The opportunity for us to bring Blackwell to the China market is a real possibility,” Huang said. “We just have to keep advocating the sensibility of and the importance of American tech companies to be able to lead and win the AI race.”
          If Nvidia was allowed to ship more capable products to the Asian nation, it would be able to take advantage of a $50 billion opportunity there, Huang said. Huge demand for AI systems in China means that market is set to grow at 50% a year, he said.
          Under Huang, the 32-year-old chipmaker has suddenly become the biggest success story in the technology industry. Throughout most of its history, Nvidia lived in the shadow of larger rivals such as Intel Corp., carving out a modest living selling graphics processors to computer gamers.
          Nvidia’s biggest breakthrough came when it adapted its graphics processing units, or GPUs, to run artificial intelligence software — creating something Huang calls accelerated computing.
          As recently as 2022, Nvidia was a fraction of Intel’s size and booking less revenue in a year than it now generates in a quarter. These days, Nvidia is on course for annual sales of $200 billion — with the number estimated to eclipse $300 billion by 2028. That would give the company about a third of the chip industry’s total revenue.
          But Nvidia is largely dependent on the spending plans of just a few companies. Microsoft Corp., Amazon.com Inc. and other giant data center operators account for about half of its sales. To diversify the business, Huang is pushing into new markets and providing a wider range of products. That includes offering complete computers, networking gear, software and services.
          He’s determined to accelerate the adoption of AI across the economy, and he pushes his team to produce new hardware and software at a frenetic pace.
          Nvidia Forecasts Decelerating Growth After Two-Year AI Boom_2

          Nvidia Steals Intel’s Data Center Dominance | The chipmaker now has more quarterly sales than Intel does annually

          For now, the Santa Clara, California, based company is largely unchallenged in the market for its AI chips, known as accelerators. In-house efforts by companies such as Amazon and early-stage challenges from would-be rivals such as Advanced Micro Devices Inc. haven’t yet made a significant dent in its market share.
          But the company faces other headaches. Aside from Nvidia’s struggles in China, the biggest impediment to growth has been the availability of supply. Like most chipmakers, Nvidia doesn’t own factories and relies on outsourced production, chiefly from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ramping up production of new technology remains an ongoing challenge.

          Source: Bloomberg

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          European Union To Remove Tariffs On U.S. Industrial Goods, Triggering Cuts For EU Autos

          Devin

          Economic

          The European Union formally proposed Thursday to remove tariffs on American industrial goods, fulfilling a key element of the U.S.-EU framework trade agreement and ensuring that lower automobile tariffs will be retroactive to the beginning of August.

          The European Commission, the executive arm of the EU, said in a statement that the removal of duties on industrial goods, along with providing "preferential market access" for some U.S. seafood and agricultural goods, would "ensure tariff relief by the US for the vital EU automotive sector starting retroactively from 1st of August."

          "These steps contribute to restoring stability and predictability in EU-US trade and investment relations, to the benefit of business, workers and citizens on both sides of the Atlantic," it added.

          The proposal, which now needs to be approved by the European Parliament and Council, was first outlined last week in a joint statement from the two trade partners. In it, they said the United States "expects the European Union's legislative proposals will be ... enacted by the necessary legislatures."

          It said tariffs on autos would be reduced from the first day of the month when the EU's legislative proposal were introduced — which means the duties should be cut from Aug. 1.

          The U.S. and EU announced they had reached a trade deal — after weeks of tense negotiations — at the end of July. U.S. President Donald Trump said the deal would see a 15% tariff imposed on most European goods to the U.S., including cars.

          The rate came as a relief to the United States' largest trading partner after Trump previously threatened it with duties of 30%. Under the deal, the EU also committed to purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy and invest at least an additional $600 billion in the U.S.

          Source: CNBC

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          EU Proposes Tariff Removal On US Imports To Speed Up Lower US Car Duties

          Thomas

          Economic

          The European Commission proposed on Thursday removing tariffs on imported U.S. industrial goods, part of a trade agreement with the United States that should result in a retroactive lowering of U.S. tariffs on European cars.

          The proposal is the first step in enacting the framework agreement between U.S. President Donald Trump and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on July 27, which saw the EU accept a broad 15% tariff to avoid a damaging trade war.

          The United States has agreed to reduce its tariffs on cars built in the European Union to 15% from 27.5% from the first day of the month in which the EU's legislative proposal is presented - meaning from August 1.

          Source: Yahoo Finance

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Alarming Stablecoin Financial Stability Risks: Former PBOC Governor Issues Crucial Warning

          Samantha Luan

          Economic

          Cryptocurrency

          Forex

          The world of cryptocurrency is constantly evolving, bringing both exciting innovations and complex challenges. Recently, a significant voice from China’s financial establishment has raised eyebrows, sparking a crucial debate. Zhou Xiaochuan, the former governor of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), has voiced strong opposition to stablecoins, citing deep concerns about stablecoin financial stability. His comments ignite a critical conversation about the future of digital currencies and their potential impact on global economies.

          Why Are Stablecoins a Threat to Financial Stability?

          Zhou Xiaochuan’s primary concern revolves around the potential for stablecoins to introduce significant financial stability risks. He argues that these digital assets, despite their name, could actually encourage speculative behavior rather than provide a steady anchor in the volatile crypto market. Such speculation, he suggests, might destabilize broader financial systems.

          Furthermore, the former governor believes stablecoins could undermine existing, robust payment infrastructures, particularly in countries like China that already boast highly efficient digital payment networks. His arguments highlight several key points:

          ● Increased Speculation: Stablecoins, while pegged to traditional assets, can still become tools for speculative trading, especially when linked to less regulated decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms.
          ● Systemic Risk: A large-scale adoption of stablecoins, particularly those not backed by transparent reserves or strong regulatory oversight, could introduce new forms of systemic risk to the financial sector.
          ● Undermining Existing Systems: Established national payment systems, built over decades for security and efficiency, could face competition or disruption from unregulated stablecoin alternatives.

          Are Stablecoin Cost Advantages Overstated?

          A common argument for stablecoins is their promise of lower transaction costs and greater efficiency compared to traditional banking. However, Zhou Xiaochuan challenges this narrative. He asserts that claims of significant cost advantages over China’s existing payment systems are greatly exaggerated. China already utilizes advanced digital payment methods, like WeChat Pay and Alipay, which offer extremely low costs and high speed.

          This perspective suggests that for nations with mature digital payment infrastructures, the perceived benefits of stablecoins might not be as revolutionary as proponents claim. Consequently, the potential downsides, such as regulatory challenges and risks to stablecoin financial stability, could outweigh any marginal gains.

          Navigating the Future: Stablecoin Financial Stability and Regulatory Concerns

          The former PBOC governor’s remarks come at a pivotal time. While he expresses caution, some experts and business leaders within China have recently advocated for the introduction of a yuan-backed stablecoin. This creates an interesting tension: the desire for innovation versus the imperative for financial security.

          The global financial community is closely watching how major economies, especially China, approach digital assets. The debate around stablecoin financial stability is not just theoretical; it has real-world implications for how money moves, how economies function, and how individuals conduct transactions. Regulators worldwide are grappling with similar questions, striving to balance technological advancement with consumer protection and systemic resilience.

          Key Considerations for Regulators:

          ● Establishing clear regulatory frameworks for stablecoin issuance and operation.
          ● Ensuring robust reserve requirements and transparency for stablecoin backing.
          ● Mitigating risks of illicit finance and market manipulation.
          ● Protecting consumers from potential losses or market volatility.

          A Crucial Dialogue for the Digital Age

          Zhou Xiaochuan’s cautionary stance on stablecoins serves as a vital reminder that while digital currencies offer exciting possibilities, they also introduce complex challenges. His experience at the helm of a major central bank lends significant weight to his concerns regarding stablecoin financial stability. The ongoing debate highlights the crucial importance of a balanced approach, one that encourages innovation while rigorously safeguarding the integrity and stability of our financial systems.

          Ultimately, the discussion around stablecoins is far from over. It requires careful consideration from policymakers, innovators, and the public alike to forge a path that harnesses the benefits of digital assets without compromising the foundational principles of financial security.

          Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

          Q1: What is a stablecoin?A stablecoin is a type of cryptocurrency designed to minimize price volatility by being pegged to a stable asset, such as a fiat currency (like the US dollar), a commodity (like gold), or even another cryptocurrency.

          Q2: Why is the former PBOC governor concerned about stablecoins?Zhou Xiaochuan is concerned that stablecoins could encourage speculation, undermine existing robust payment systems, and pose significant risks to overall financial stability due to their potential for unregulated growth and lack of transparency.

          Q3: Do stablecoins offer real cost advantages?While stablecoins are often promoted for their low transaction costs, Zhou Xiaochuan argues that for countries with highly efficient existing digital payment systems, like China, these cost advantages are often exaggerated and do not justify the associated risks.

          Q4: Are there calls for a yuan-backed stablecoin?Yes, despite the former PBOC governor’s opposition, some experts and business leaders in China have expressed interest in introducing a stablecoin backed by the Chinese yuan, aiming to explore its potential benefits.

          Q5: How do central banks typically view stablecoins?Central banks generally approach stablecoins with caution, focusing on potential risks to monetary policy, financial stability, and consumer protection. Many are actively researching or developing their own central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) as an alternative.

          Source: CryptoSlate

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
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          US Second-quarter GDP Revised Higher; Weekly Jobless Claims Fall

          James Whitman

          Economic

          The U.S. economy grew faster than initially thought in the second quarter, in part driven by business investment in intellectual property such as artificial intelligence, but tariffs on imports continued to cloud the outlook.

          The upgrade to gross domestic product reported by the Commerce Department on Thursday also reflected upward revisions to consumer spending as well as business investment in equipment. That resulted in a measure of underlying domestic demand also being revised higher. With the Federal Reserve focused on a softening labor market, economists expected the U.S. central bank to resume cutting interest rates next month."I doubt this moves the needle for the Fed, but at the margin, these revisions work against the case for urgency to cut rates," said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets.

          GDP increased at a 3.3% annualized rate last quarter, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said in its second estimate. The economy was initially reported to have grown at a 3.0% pace in the second quarter. Economists polled by Reuters had expected GDP growth would be raised to a 3.1% rate.

          The economy contracted at a 0.5% pace in the January-March quarter, which was the first GDP decline in three years.

          The manner in which President Donald Trump's administration has implemented the tariffs, including escalations and 90-day pauses, has muddied the waters, making it challenging to parse economic data. A front-loading of imports as businesses rushed to beat the duties pulled down GDP in the first quarter before snapping back as the flow of foreign merchandise ebbed.

          Neither first- nor second-quarter GDP readings are a true reflection of the economy's health because of the wild swings in imports. To get a better read of the economy, economists are focusing on the final sales to private domestic purchasers measure, which excludes trade, inventories and government spending.

          This measure, also viewed by policymakers as a barometer of underlying economic growth, increased at an upwardly revised 1.9% pace last quarter, matching the first quarter's pace.

          Domestic demand was initially estimated to have grown at a 1.2% rate. The revision reflected upgrades to consumer spending, the economy's main engine, which is now estimated to have increased at a 1.6% rate. That was up from the previously reported 1.4% pace.

          Business spending on intellectual property products grew at a 12.8% rate, double the initially estimated 6.4% pace.

          "Investment related to AI is helping mask some of the weakness elsewhere in the economy, but the good news is that there is little sign that this support is set to fade anytime soon," said Ryan Sweet, chief economist at Oxford Economics.

          Growth in business investment in equipment was upgraded to a 7.4% pace from the 4.8% rate estimated last month.

          Still, economists expect a lackluster second half, which would limit economic growth to about 1.5% for the full year because of tariffs.

          That reading would be down from 2.8% in 2024.CORPORATE PROFITS REBOUND

          The BEA also reported that profits from current production with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments rebounded $65.5 billion last quarter. Profits decreased $90.6 billion in the January-March period.

          But further increases are likely to be hampered by Trump's protectionist trade policy, which has raised the nation's average import duty to its highest level in a century, inflicting pain on companies ranging from retailers to manufacturers.

          Caterpillar (CAT.N) this month warned tariffs could cost the economic bellwether up to $1.5 billion this year.

          In July, General Motors' (GM.N) second-quarter earnings took a $1.1 billion hit from the duties and the automaker anticipated more pain in the third quarter. Clothing retailer Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF.N), opens new tab on Wednesday warned that higher tariffs on countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Cambodia and India would increase costs by $90 million this year.

          Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week signaled a possible interest rate cut at the central bank's September 16-17 policy meeting, in a nod to rising labor market risks, but also added that inflation remained a threat.

          The Fed has kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range since December.

          News on the labor market remained mixed, with a report from the Labor Department showing initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 229,000 for the week ended August 23. The labor market is stuck in a no-hire, no-fire mode due to tariffs.The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, fell 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.954 million during the week ending August 16, the claims report showed. The so-called continuing claims data covered the week during which the government surveyed households for August's unemployment rate.

          Continuing claims rose slightly between the July and August survey weeks, leaving some economists expecting the unemployment rate will rise to 4.3% in August from 4.2% in July.

          A survey from the Conference Board on Tuesday showed the share of consumers viewing jobs as "hard to get" jumped to a 4-1/2-year high in August. But a shrinking labor market pool because of the White House's immigration crackdown is softening the impact of lackluster hiring on the unemployment rate.

          Economists said reduced labor supply suggests the economy needs to create less than 90,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working population.

          Source: Reuters

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          US Dollar: China Allows Faster USD/CNY Gains as Selling Pressure Hits Greenback

          Adam

          Forex

          After yesterday’s setback in North America, the US dollar remains under modest pressure today. It is lower against all the G10 currencies. The US dollar also is softer against most emerging market currencies. It was fixed at a new low for the year against the Chinese yuan.
          The yuan has a five-day advance in tow, the longest rally since last September. Today, the US raises $185 bln in bills and sells $44 bln seven-year notes. The US sees a possible slight upward revision in Q2 GDP (3.1% vs. 3.0%) and weekly jobless claims. Federal Reserve Governor Waller speaks after the markets closed.
          The large equity markets in the Asia Pacific region were mixed. The rally in mainland shares continues, but Hong Kong and the index of mainland companies that trade there fell. India, which was on holiday yesterday, when the new US tariffs went into effect, saw stocks come under pressure today.
          Europe’s Stoxx 600 eked out a 0.1% gain yesterday and is straddling unchanged levels today, waiting perhaps for directional cues from the US, where the index futures are also little changed. Benchmark 10-year yields played catch-up today after the rally in the US yesterday.
          European yields are mostly softer, though the survival of the Dutch government of a confidence vote has seen little reaction. While the French government is still on tenterhooks, the 10-year French yield is down the most in Europe today (~2.5 bp). The 10-year US Treasury yield is a little softer, slightly below 4.23%. Gold is firm around $3400, its best level in almost three weeks, while October WTI is softer in a roughly half-dollar range below $64.
          USD: After Fed Chair Powell’s indication at the end of last week that the risk assessment may be shifting, and the dollar reversed lower to extend this month’s pullback after the July bounce, the greenback looked poised to resume the H1 25 decline. Instead, the Dollar Index traded better in the first half of the week.
          It rose to almost 98.75 yesterday, but North American operators sold into the gains and sent the Dollar Index to a new session low near 98.15. Follow-through selling has seen in slip closer to 98.00 today. Yet it remains within the range set last Friday (~97.55-98.35). We note that the odds of a cut next month remain slightly higher than at the end of last week, and the two-year yield is around seven basis points lower.
          The 10-year yield is about three basis points softer compared with the end of last week. Today it is likely to see a small uptick in Q2 GDP, helped by an upward revision in consumption. Weekly jobless claims, pending home sales, and the KC Fed’s manufacturing survey are due. Of note, eight Fed surveys have been published this month and they are split evenly between improvement and deterioration. Governor Waller, a dovish dissent last month, speaks late today on monetary policy.
          EURO: The euro fell to three-week lows yesterday, near $1.1575. This approached the (50%) retracement of this month’s gains, found slightly above $1.1565. In North America, it recovered and set new session highs after European markets closed. It reached almost $1.1650 and left a bullish hammer candlestick in its wake. Follow-through buying has been limited to $1.1655 today but given the intraday momentum indicators, a high for the session may not be in place.
          Meanwhile, the US two-year premium over Germany has tightened. Now, below 170 bp, is the smallest since March. We did not expect the downside correction to this month’s gains after Powell spoke, but with another soft US jobs report next Friday, followed by annual benchmark revisions to nonfarm payrolls the following week, and the independence of the Federal Reserve still under attack, we are reluctant to abandon the constructive outlook for the euro.
          CNY: After approaching the low for the year yesterday, the dollar bounced back against the yuan. The greenback was bid toward CNH7.1655 after recording a low yesterday near CNH7.1455. Follow-through selling today sent the dollar to a new low for the year, slightly below CNH7.13. The PBOC has been setting the dollar’s fix lower on a trend basis since April/May. For the second consecutive session, it was set a new low for the year today (CNY7.1063 vs. CNY7.1108 yesterday). Separately, mainland investors sold a record of HK20.4 bln of HK listed stocks today and apparently repatriated the helped lift the CSI 300 by almost 1.8%, while driving down the index of Chinese companies that trade in HK by 1.15%.
          JPY: The dollar rose to a three-day high near JPY148.20. It was the ninth time this month that it traded north of JPY148, but it was unable to settle above it, which it has done only twice. As the US rates fell 4-5 basis points from intrasession highs, the dollar fell to a new session low near JPY147.30. It has been sold to JPY147 today.
          The price action looks poor, but the greenback remains in the range set last Friday (~JPY146.60-JPY148.80). The intraday momentum indicators suggest that the lower end of last Friday’s range will likely remain intact today. This week’s Japanese macro data is concentrated tomorrow. Broadly speaking, the reports look soft. Retail sales may have pulled back after they rose by 0.9% in June (initially1.0%).
          Industrial output, which jumped 2.1% in June, also likely slowed. The most important data point, however, is the Tokyo CPI. The headline and core rates may have moderated for the third consecutive month. Net-net this month, the swaps market is little changed with 17-18 bp of tightening discounted before the end of the year. At the end of last week, the US 10-year premium over Japan fell to around 263 bp, a three-year low. It is hovering slightly below there now.
          GBP: Sterling was sold to a three-day low yesterday, almost $1.3415. The pre-weekend low, before Powell spoke was closer to $1.3390. It bounced back in North America and, although it took out Tuesday’s high (~$1.3495), and settled above it. Its advance today stalled in front of $1.3520. The odds of another rate cut this year are near 40%, down from 100% that was discounted before the Bank of England met earlier this month. The implied year-end rate in the swaps market has risen by about 12 bp this month, while the 10-year yield is up about 18 bp. In contrast, the implied year-end rate in the US has fallen 22 bp this month, while the 10-year yield has fallen around 14 bp.
          CAD: The US dollar was sold to a seven-day low yesterday near CAD1.3780. It settled below the 20-day moving average (~CAD1.3810) for the first time in a month. Selling today pushed the greenback to new two-week lows today below CAD1.3770. Nearby support is seen around CAD1.3750 and then CAD1.3720.
          Canada reports the Q2 current account balance today ahead of tomorrow’s Q2 GDP. Canada’s current account deficit was as much as 3.6% of GDP in 2010 and has been improving since 2015 and has averaged less than 0.5% of GDP over the past four years. In Canadian dollar terms, it averaged C$3.5 bln a quarter last year and C$4.6 bln in 2023.
          The merchandise trade balance deteriorated sharply in Q2 (~C$19 bln deficit after an almost C$400 mln deficit in Q1 25). The risk is of a blowout deficit of around C$19.3 bln, according to the median projection in Bloomberg’s survey. It would be the largest deficit in at least a decade. A much weaker report could impact expectations for tomorrow’s GDP. Bloomberg continues to show two different median forecasts but the difference (-0.5% and -0.7%) may be inconsequential.
          AUD: The jump in Australia’s July CPI (2.8% vs. 1.9% in June) did little to help the Australian dollar, which fell to a three-day low against the greenback (~$0.6465) before recovering smartly in North America. It rose to a new seven-day high near $0.6515. It settled above Tuesday’s high to post an outside up day against the dollar.
          The (50%) retracement of the Aussie’s losses since the year’s high was recorded in late July (~$0.6625) is about $0.6520 and it has been met today. The next immediate target may be the trendline connecting the July and August highs is found closer to $0.6530. Expectations for the trajectory of Australian monetary policy did not change significantly.
          The futures market has a little more than a 25 bp cut discounted for the November RBA meeting. The implied year-end rate is virtually unchanged this week, near 3.25% (vs 3.60% current target rate).
          MXN: Mexico unexpectedly reported a small trade deficit for July, and it added to the pressure on the currency from the firmer greenback and heavier emerging market currencies. Exports rose by 5%, the largest increase since March, to reach a record high. Imports rose a little more than 6% last month, the first increase in three months, and were just shy of last October’s record $57.3 bln.
          Mexico reports July unemployment today (expected to rise to 2.86% from 2.69%) but it tends not to have much impact on the market. The dollar rose above last Friday’s high (~MXN18.7760) to approach MXN18.80, and as it found sellers broadly, it returned to the MXN18.65 area, where it consolidated in late dealings. It has slipped to almost MXN18.63 today. Monday’s low was near MXN18.5530.
          The dollar posted similar price action against the Brazilian real. The greenback rose to a three-day high initially and tested the 20-day moving average around. BRL5.4555 before reversing. It was knocking on BRL5.4150 at the close. The year’s low was set earlier this month near BRL5.38.

          Source: investing

          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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