J.P.Morgan brings forward Fed rate cut forecast to September

Economic

Summary:

J.P.Morgan now expects a Fed rate cut in September, citing labor market weakness and Trump’s Fed nominee. Markets sharply increased odds of a cut, with Waller seen as Powell’s likely successor.

J.P.Morgan now expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting, citing signs of weakness in the labor market and uncertainty around President Donald Trump's latest Fed nomination.

The brokerage had earlier forecast one 25 basis point rate cut in December but said in a note on Thursday that the risks now point to an earlier move, followed by three more quarter-point cuts before the Fed pauses.

"For Powell, the risk management considerations at the next meeting may go beyond balancing employment and inflation risks," J.P.Morgan analyst Michael Feroli wrote.

Trump on Thursday nominated Stephen Miran, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, to fill a temporary seat on the Fed Board, replacing outgoing Governor Adriana Kugler.

Miran's confirmation before the September 16–17 policy meeting remains uncertain, but JPM said his presence could increase divisions within the rate-setting committee.

The move follows months of Trump pressuring the Fed to cut rates, often clashing with Chair Jerome Powell over keeping policy tight. "In the off chance Miran is governor by the time of the next meeting, that could imply three dissents. That’s a lot of dissents," Feroli said.

The Fed's decision may hinge on August jobs data. JPM said an unemployment rate of 4.4% or higher could justify a larger cut, while a lower reading may prompt resistance from policymakers focused on inflation.

Separately, the JPM note said that Fed Governor Christopher Waller is emerging as the frontrunner to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, a move it said would likely be welcomed by financial markets.

Analysts at Barclays echoed the sentiment, saying Waller's appointment would reduce uncertainty around how the Fed responds to economic data, which could support longer-dated bonds.

Traders now price in a 91.4% chance of a rate cut in September, compared with 37.7% last week, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

James Whitman

Economic

Political

Switzerland is continuing discussions with the United States about reducing potentially crippling import duties, its government said on Friday, as the country's gold industry warned exports of gold bars to the U.S. could be severely impacted by a 39% tariff.

The tariff talks in Washington are being led by Helene Budliger Artieda, head of the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), and come after the import levy - among the highest of any applied under President Donald Trump's global trade reset - took effect on Thursday.

A last-ditch Swiss trip led by President Karin Keller-Sutter failed to produce a better deal.

"Discussions with the United States are ongoing," SECO said in a statement to Reuters on Friday. "The discussions have consistently focused on reducing the additional U.S. tariffs."

SECO said it would give no further details on the talks, which could include further concessions Switzerland may offer the U.S. in return for lower tariffs.

No discussions were scheduled for Friday, although they are due to continue next week on a technical level, a Swiss source said, without giving further details.

The Swiss precious metals association on Friday said it was concerned about an increase in tariffs on gold exports to the United States to 39%.

Gold bars of 1 kg and 100 oz were previously exempt from U.S. tariffs, but country-specific tariffs may now apply.

Switzerland is the world's largest gold refining centre, with up to 70% of gold produced annually worldwide melted down and processed at the five refineries in the country.

The country imports gold bars and resizes them for the U.S. market. Switzerland exported gold bars worth 7.86 billion Swiss francs ($9.7 billion) to the U.S. last year, according to customs data.

"We are particularly concerned about the implications of the tariffs for the gold industry and the physical exchange of gold with the U.S., a long-standing and historical partner for Switzerland," said Christoph Wild, president of the Swiss Association of Manufacturers and Traders in Precious Metals.

"With a tariff of 39%, exports of gold bars will definitely be stopped to the U.S.," Wild told Reuters.

Economist Hans Gersbach, from the KOF Economic Institute at ETH, a university in Zurich, estimated that 7,500 to 15,000 jobs could be lost in Switzerland as a result of the U.S. tariffs.

"The effect will be severe in some industries like watches, machinery and precision instruments," Gersbach said.

"If pharma was also targeted, the figure would be higher," he added, although no figure has yet been calculated.

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Adam

Economic

Chinese regulators have asked local brokers and other bodies to stop research publication and seminars to endorse stablecoins in a bid to check the asset class and avoid instability, Bloomberg News reported on Friday.

Some brokerages and think tanks received guidance from market regulators in late July and earlier this month, pushing them to cancel seminars and discontinue dissemination of research on stablecoins, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter.

Regulators are also concerned that stablecoins could be exploited as a new tool for fraudulent activities in mainland China, the Bloomberg report said.

China Securities Regulatory Commission and the People's Bank of China did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. Reuters could not immediately verify the report.

Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency designed to maintain a constant value and are usually pegged to a fiat currency such as the U.S. dollar and are commonly used by crypto traders to move funds between tokens.

While China's 2021 ban on cryptocurrency remains in effect on the mainland, Hong Kong passed a stablecoin bill earlier this year to boost its status as a global digital asset hub.

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

James Whitman

Political

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Washington and Moscow are aiming to reach a deal to halt the war in Ukraine that would lock in Russia’s occupation of territory seized during its military invasion, according to people familiar with the matter.

US and Russian officials are working toward an agreement on territories for a planned summit meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin as early as next week, the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations. The US is working to get buy-in from Ukraine and its European allies on the deal, which is far from certain, the people said.

Putin is demanding that Ukraine cede its entire eastern Donbas area to Russia as well as Crimea, which his forces illegally annexed in 2014. That would require Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to order a withdrawal of troops from parts of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions still held by Kyiv, handing Russia a victory that its army couldn’t achieve militarily since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Such an outcome would represent a major win for Putin, who has long sought direct negotiations with the US on terms for ending the war that he started, sidelining Ukraine and its European allies. Zelenskiy risks being presented with a take-it-or-leave-it deal to accept the loss of Ukrainian territory, while Europe fears it would be left to monitor a ceasefire as Putin rebuilds his forces.

Russia would halt its offensive in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine along the current battlelines as part of the deal, the people said. They cautioned that the terms and plans of the accord were still in flux and could still change.

It’s unclear if Moscow is prepared to give up any land that it currently occupies, which includes the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe.

The White House didn’t reply to a request to comment. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov didn’t immediately respond to a request to comment.

Ukraine declined to comment on the proposals.

The agreement aims essentially to freeze the war and pave the way for a ceasefire and technical talks on a definitive peace settlement, the people said. The US had earlier been pushing for Russia to agree first to an unconditional ceasefire to create space for negotiations on ending the war that’s now in its fourth year.

Having returned to the White House in January on a pledge to rapidly resolve Europe’s worst conflict since World War II, Trump has expressed increasing frustration with Putin’s refusal to agree to a ceasefire. The two leaders held six phone calls since February and Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff met with Putin five times in Russia to try to broker an agreement.

Source: Bloomberg

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Damon

Palestinian-Israeli conflict

SEVENOAKS, England, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Britain and the United States may disagree about how to address the crisis in Gaza but they share common goals in the region, U.S. Vice President JD Vance said at the start of a meeting with British Foreign Secretary David Lammy in southern England.

Vance, who has previously criticised Britain and its governing Labour Party, landed with his wife Usha and their three children in London before heading to Chevening, the large, red-brick country residence used by the British foreign minister.

Appearing before reporters and TV cameras, the two leaders exuded plenty of bonhomie, with Lammy recommending Vance enjoy a coastal walk in Kent and the vice president professing his "love" for Britain.

Asked about Britain's plan to recognise Palestine, Vance said the U.S. and Britain had a common goal to resolve the crisis in the Middle East, adding: "We may have some disagreements about how exactly to accomplish that goal, and we'll talk about that today."

Vance also reiterated that the U.S. had no plans to recognise a Palestinian state, saying he didn't know what recognition actually meant, "given the lack of a functional government there."

Britain, by contrast, has taken a harder stance against Israel, declaring its intention to recognise Palestine along with France and Canada to put pressure on Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu over the continuing conflict and humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

Earlier on Friday, Vance and Lammy also went fishing in the lake behind Chevening House, appearing relaxed in blue button-down shirts and sharing a laugh.

Vance joked to reporters that the "one strain on the special relationship" between Britain and the U.S. was that all his children had caught fish but that the British foreign minister had not.

"Before beginning our bilateral, the Vice President gave me fishing tips, Kentucky style," Lammy said in a post on X.

After spending two nights in Chevening's bucolic surroundings with Lammy, the Vances will travel to the Cotswolds, a picturesque area of English countryside and a popular retreat for wealthy and influential figures, from footballers and film stars to media and political figures.

The visit comes amid heightened transatlantic tensions, domestic political shifts in both countries and increased attention on Vance's foreign policy views as he emerges as a key figure in President Donald Trump’s administration.

A source familiar with the planning described the trip as a working visit that will include several official engagements, meetings and visits to cultural sites. Vance is also expected to meet with U.S. troops.

Vance and Lammy will also discuss the war in Ukraine, the pair told reporters.

Close to Chevening House, a small group of protesters had gathered, some waving Palestinian flags and one holding up a sign showing a meme of a bald Vance.

Source: Reuters

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Samantha Luan

Cryptocurrency

Political

US President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Thursday, aimed at eliminating practices by banks and their regulators that result in certain customers being denied access to financial services for ideological reasons.The order directs federal banking regulators to remove reputational risk standards from their guidance and training materials, and identify financial institutions that engaged in unlawful “debanking” in the past, the White House said in a fact sheet published after the signing.

Federal authorities are also directed to impose fines or take other remedial measures they deem appropriate on institutions that are found to have had such policies.And regulators will also be required to review complaint data, and refer instances of unlawful debanking based on religion, to the US Justice Department. Financial institutions under the jurisdiction of the Small Business Administration, will also be required to make reasonable efforts to reinstate clients who were unlawfully denied services.

“President Trump believes that no American should be denied access to financial services because of their political or religious beliefs, and that banking decisions must solely be made on the basis of individualised, objective, and risk-based analyses,” the White House said.Some of the nation’s biggest banks have been accused by the Trump administration of shutting customer accounts for political or religious reasons. And many conservatives have complained that major Wall Street firms have debanked gunmakers, fossil-fuel companies, religious groups, and cryptocurrency firms.

Trump signed the order alongside an action designed to increase access to alternative assets such as private equity, real estate and cryptocurrency in retirement accounts Thursday afternoon, at the White House. Details of the debanking executive order were reported earlier by Fox Business.Trump earlier this week said banks had discriminated against him in the past. JPMorgan Chase & Co had asked him to close accounts he held for decades within 20 days, and Bank of America Corp declined his attempt to deposit more than US$1 billion (RM4.23 billion), he said in a CNBC interview. Regulators in the Biden administration had been ordered to “destroy Trump,” the president said.

Both JPMorgan and Bank of America have denied rejecting business on ideological grounds.The executive order requires the lenders to examine their processes for deciding whether to close accounts, and asks regulators to remove references to so-called “reputational risk” posed by customers — a practice banks have said led to decisions not to deal with certain customers or industries.

Bank of America, the second-largest US bank, had restricted lending to companies that make assault-style guns used for non-military purposes, following shootings at a high school in Florida in 2018. Citigroup Inc also announced its own set of restrictions for clients selling guns that year.Bank of America went on to loosen its gun restrictions and made similar changes to its energy-lending policies, including dropping a blanket ban on financing for Arctic drilling. Then in June, Citigroup ended a seven-year policy that placed restrictions on firearms sales by its retail sector clients, citing recent legislative developments, and concerns over access to banking services.

Bills have been reintroduced in Congress this year, that would prohibit banks from accessing certain lending programmes if they deny “fair access” to their services. The “Fair Access to Banking Act” has gained support from groups in the firearms industry.

Source: Theedgemarkets

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Adam

Economic

The U.K. government is loathe to admit it, but economists say it’s highly likely that the Treasury will have to hike taxes in the fall if it is to bung a black hole in the public finances that it has effectively created for itself.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) is the latest economic think tank to warn that taxes would have to rise later this year if British Chancellor Rachel Reeves is to meet her self-imposed “fiscal rules.”

These rules target both a balanced or budget surplus by the end of the decade — with the so-called “stability rule” requiring that day-to-day spending is funded by tax revenues rather than borrowing — and that debt, as a proportion of GDP, should be falling by the end of this parliament (in 2029-30), aka the “investment rule.”

“The Government is not on track to meet its ‘stability rule’, with our forecast suggesting a current deficit of £41.2 billion in the fiscal year 2029-30,” NIESR said in an economic outlook released Wednesday.

“Substantial adjustments in the Autumn Budget will be needed if the Chancellor is to remain compliant with her fiscal rules,” it added in the report.

With the government having fixed its spending plans for the next couple of years in its recent Spending Review, “the only lever available is to raise taxation in a moderate but sustained way,” the think tank said in the report titled “the Chancellor’s Trilemma.”

The ‘trilemma’ refers to the bind Reeves finds herself in thanks to her own fiscal rules, tax and spending commitments made over the last year and the Labour Party’s manifesto promise to not raise taxes on “working people.”

“Simply put, the Chancellor cannot simultaneously meet her fiscal rules, fulfil spending commitments, and uphold manifesto promises to avoid tax rises for working people. At least one of these will need to be dropped – she faces an impossible trilemma,” NIESR said.

It’s worth noting that NIESR’s forecast for the budget deficit could be even higher, at around £51.1 billion, if Reeves wants to keep around £9.9 billion’s worth of fiscal “headroom” that the Treasury had planned for, but which has been slowly eroded after U-turns on welfare reforms and winter fuel payment cuts for pensioners.

“For the Chancellor to really shift the dial and build a reasonably sized buffer against her fiscal rules, she will have to look at either raising VAT or raising income taxes. VAT is the least distortionary tax but is also the most regressive. So, rises in income tax rates are likely to be the best answer, as we have previously argued,” NIESR said, but added that there were few palatable options for the chancellor.

No good options on tax rises

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer was asked about the NIESR report on Wednesday, and the suggestion that tax rises would be necessary, but said he did “not recognise” the figures. Nonetheless, he declined to rule out hiking VAT, income tax and corporation tax in the fall, Sky News reported.

“Some of the figures that are being put out are not figures that I recognise, but the budget won’t be until later in the year, and that’s why we’ll have the forecast then and we’ll set out our plans,” he said.

NIESR said Chancellor Reeves faces “unenviable decisions” for the Autumn Budget, when she will unveil taxation and spending plans for the year ahead.

“Unfortunately, the most politically acceptable choices for tax increases would either raise very little revenue or would have large distortionary effects, or both,” the think tank said, suggesting some measures — such as extending income tax thresholds — would “particularly affect poorer households.”

Other measures, such as cutting the current £20,000 tax-free cash ISA allowance, or increasing the rate of capital gains tax, could disincentivize saving, the think tank warned.

The government could also reverse cuts to employees’ national insurance contributions (NICs) but “while this would generate significant revenue over the parliamentary term,” it would again breach the manifesto pledge not to raise taxes on working people, and could have strong “distortionary effects via discouraging job creation and so would likely increase unemployment.”

When Reeves announced her government budget last fall, she unveiled a £70 billion boost to public spending to be funded by higher borrowing and £40 billion in tax rises, which mostly hit British businesses.

At the time, she insisted it was a one-off move, telling lawmakers that “we’re not going to be coming back with more tax increases, or indeed more borrowing.”

Reeves could potentially adjust corporation tax rates and allowances which could also raise significant tax revenues, but this would run contrary to her previous pledge to cap corporation tax at 25% for the lifetime of the parliament.

It would also likely have a negative effect on business confidence, which has already taken a hit after a hike to employer NICs that took effect in April.