Japan's Business Service Prices Stay Elevated Before Tariffs Hit

Economic

Summary:

Service prices among businesses in Japan stayed elevated last month, indicating sustained inflationary pressures before the impact from US tariffs kicks in, as the Bank of Japan prepares to set policy next week.

The cost of services among companies climbed 3.1% in March, remaining above 3% for a sixth month, the longest such streak since 1991 if the effects of sales tax hikes are excluded, according to a BOJ report Thursday. The result came in slightly stronger than economists’ estimate of 3%.

For January, the data were revised higher to 3.3%, to reflect the biggest jump in more than 33 years, excluding sales tax hike impacts.

Services related to machinery repair, hotels and transportation were among the biggest contributors to the overall gain as businesses continue to pass on rising labor and energy costs to customers, with overseas tourists helping boost demand for accommodations.

The data underscore the steady inflationary pressure in Japan — at least ahead of the impact from US tariff measures, in a result that by itself would back the case for the BOJ to raise interest rates once economic uncertainty clears. Governor Kazuo Ueda and his fellow board members are widely expected to keep borrowing costs at 0.5% at the conclusion of a policy gathering on May 1.

The tariffs have altered perceptions about the outlook for BOJ policy, with economists projecting a slower pace of hikes leading to a terminal policy rate for this cycle of 1%, down from 1.25% in a survey last month.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Michelle Reid

Political

Key points:

● Order seeks to make accrediting organizations more accountable.

● Schools' access to student financial aid could be affected.

● Directive requires universities to disclose source, purpose of foreign gifts.

In his latest step pressuring U.S. universities,President Donald Trumpon Wednesday signed an order intended to toughen standards for college accreditation, a requirement for accessing billions of dollars in federal student financial aid.

The order was one of seven education-related actions taken by the president during an event in the Oval Office. They covered a range of topics including fostering artificial intelligence competency in schools and improving job training for skilled trades.

The administration already has frozen hundreds of millions of dollars in federal funding for numerous universities, pressing the institutions to make policy changes and citing what it says is a failure to fight antisemitism on campus. Harvard University is suing the administration over a funding freeze.

While the federal government does not directly accredit U.S. universities, it has a role in overseeing the mostly private organizations that do so. Accreditation is required for colleges to access federal student loans and grants.

Trump has often complained that accreditors approve institutions that fail to provide quality education, a sentiment echoed in the executive order.

The order directed Education Secretary Linda McMahon to make the accrediting organizations more accountable for schools' "poor performance" and civil rights violations through restrictions on or termination of their accrediting rights, a White House fact sheet said.

Trump ordered McMahon and Attorney General Pam Bondi to investigate and take action against unlawful discrimination by U.S. colleges and graduate schools including law and medical schools.

Another order on Wednesday directed the administration to enforce existing laws requiring universities to disclose when they receive large foreign gifts, amid worries by Trump of foreign influence at universities.

It directed McMahon to take steps to require universities to disclose specific details about foreign funding, including "the true source and purpose of the funds," a White House fact sheet said.

Yet another order sets up an initiative on historically Black colleges and universities aimed at promoting excellence and innovation at the schools.

Under the initiative, an annual White House summit on HBCUs will be staged to "foster collaboration and address key priorities for HBCU success," a White House fact sheet said.

Trump said another order targeted diversity, equity and inclusion policies that impacted how students are disciplined. It said school discipline "should be based on student behavior, rather than racial statistics."

Source: Reuters

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Catherine Richards

Cryptocurrency

The Federal Bureau of Investigation’s Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) has released its annual report detailing complaints and losses due to scams and fraud involving cryptocurrency in 2024.

According to the report released on April 23, the IC3 received more than 140,000 complaints referencing cryptocurrency in 2024, resulting in roughly $9.3 billion in losses. The bureau reported that individuals over the age of 60 had been the most affected by crypto-related fraud, with roughly 33,000 complaints and $2.8 billion in losses.

Source: FBI

“Last year saw a new record for losses reported to IC3, totaling a staggering $16.6 billion,” said the report. “Fraud represented the bulk of reported losses in 2024, and ransomware was again the most pervasive threat to critical infrastructure, with complaints rising 9% from 2023," notes the report, adding that, as a group, those over the age of 60 suffered the most losses and submitted the most complaints.

The report added that the resultant losses had increased roughly 66% since 2023, from roughly $5.6 billion to $9.3 billion. The most significant percentage of losses occurred due to crypto investment schemes, while the largest number of complaints related to “sextortion” schemes, in which fraudsters manipulated photos and videos to create explicit content. Other scams included schemes involving the use of crypto ATMs or kiosks.

Related: Crypto scam uses trade war fears to lure victims, Canadian watchdogs warn.

In February, the FBI reported its “Operation Level Up” had saved potential victims of crypto fraud roughly $285 million between January 2024 and January 2025. However, blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis speculated that 2025 could see the largest number of scams to date, given that generative AI is making the practice “more scalable and affordable for bad actors to conduct.”

Globally, Chainalysis estimated that there had been roughly $41 billion in illicit crypto volume in 2024, with roughly 25% of the funds involved with “hacking, extortion, trafficking, or scams.” Some of the most high-profile crimes included the $1.4 billion in crypto stolen from the Bybit exchange in March and North Korean hackers taking more than $1.3 billion.

Trump' s crypto ventures raise conflict of interest, insider trading questions.

Source: COINTELEGRAPH

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Justin

Economic

Gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to have grown at a modest 0.7% (real annualized) in the first quarter, according to the median estimate. If this forecast holds true, the economy would slow sharply after the strong 2.4% growth in the fourth quarter. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its preliminary estimate of first-quarter GDP on April 30.

The US economy is expected to see a sharp slowdown in growth in the first quarter.

Today's revised median forecast extends a series of sharply lowered forecasts for the first quarter in recent weeks. In our previous update, dated April 10, the median forecast for the first quarter was 0.8%.

The most worrying aspect of today's first-quarter data is that it does not yet reflect the severe trade disruptions plaguing the United States and the global economy. In other words, the second-quarter data are expected to provide a clearer picture of how tariffs are impacting economic activity.

The International Monetary Fund discussed the outlook on Tuesday, lowering its growth forecasts for the United States and the world, citing tariffs as a factor. IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas wrote yesterday: "Risks to the global economy have increased, and escalating trade tensions could further depress growth."

Kevin Kang, head of global economic research at Vanguard and chief international economist, sees reason to lower the forecast. “We’re going to see significantly weaker economic growth this year,” he told Yahoo Finance yesterday. He added that there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding the forecast. “The variance around our forecast is unusually large… We’re in what we call a ‘dance with recession.’ So, while recession may not be our baseline, we’re very close to it.”

Source: James Picerno

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Owen Li

Economic

The latest fights now threaten to shake the Pentagon, where Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has pushed out top aides and faces backlash over sharing secret airstrike details outside secure channels.

APNews mentioned that Hegseth has removed several senior advisers in recent weeks. Last Tuesday, he went on Fox News and blamed those former aides for leaking information and trying to “sabotage the president’s agenda.”

A former Pentagon spokesperson who resigned last week wrote in Politico that Mr. Trump should fire Hegseth for overseeing a “full-blown meltdown.”

This clash has not yet become the main story of Mr. Trump’s return to the White House. However, it shows that the chaos that shaped his first term remains intact.

Mr. Trump often rewards loyalty over experience, setting his team members against each other and using their disagreements as leverage.

The national security team was rattled when Laura Loomer, a far-right activist known for conspiracy theories, visited the Oval Office. Ms. Loomer has accused some officials of disloyalty and persuaded Mr. Trump to fire them.

In an interview released on April 21, she said the White House is far from “one big happy family.” “The advisers don’t get along with each other,” she said. “The heads of agencies don’t get along with each other.”

Trump’s plan to change global trade balances causes conflict among his advisors

Tesla Chief Elon Musk, whose companies could face higher costs, called trade adviser Peter Navarro “dumber than a sack of bricks.” Mr. Navarro shot back, saying that Mr. Musk protects “his own interests” and dismisses Tesla as a “car assembler” who depends on overseas parts.

Navarro is truly a moron. What he says here is demonstrably false.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt downplayed these fights. She told reporters there are “far more examples of the president’s team working together enthusiastically and collaboratively.” “The numbers and results of this administration speak for themselves,” she said. “The president and his team are getting work done.”

Mr. Trump has long mixed opposing views to keep people on their toes. He values unpredictability as a tool in negotiations and picks advisers known for aggression and devotion.

John Bolton, who served as national security adviser in Mr. Trump’s first term, said this style shows a lack of experience and inconsistent ideology.

“The only thing they have in common is the belief that they should show personal fealty to Trump,” Mr. Bolton said. “That may keep them in the job, but it undercuts their seriousness.”

Despite the turmoil, Mr. Trump and his allies have closed ranks around Mr. Hegseth

On April 21, Mr. Trump brushed off reports that the secretary joined a second group chat about Yemen airstrikes, calling the stories “fake news.” He told reporters at the White House Easter egg roll that Mr. Hegseth is “doing a great job.” Ms. Leavitt defended him on Fox News, blaming Pentagon staff for resisting “monumental change.”

Yet criticism is rising from inside the department. John Ullyot, the former Pentagon spokesperson, said, “It’s hard to see Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth remaining in his role for much longer.” He said, “Many in the secretary’s own inner circle will applaud quietly” if Mr. Hegseth is fired.

Three other senior aides, Dan Caldwell, Colin Carroll, and Darin Selnick, said they were forced out amid “baseless attacks on our character.”

Trade tensions have also tested the administration’s unity

Mr. Navarro insisted there would be no negotiations on tariffs, but Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said import taxes would improve the White House’s negotiating hand.

After Mr. Trump partly backed down, Mr. Navarro and Mr. Musk traded more barbs. Ms. Leavitt shrugged at the feud, saying “boys will be boys” and urging critics to remember “the most transparent administration in history.”

Ms. Loomer has kept up the pressure on other officials. Last week, she accused Mr. Bessent of bringing a “Trump hater” into his financial literacy effort. She posted on X that she planned to “personally tell President Trump and personally show him these receipts,” adding “shame on” Mr. Bessent. Mr. Musk shared her post and called the development “troubling.”

Source: CryptoSlate

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Thomas

Economic

Majorities in both parties say Trump administration must stop an action if a federal court rules it is illegal

Pew Research Center conducted this study to understand how Americans view President Donald Trump and the recent actions his administration has taken on key issues.

For this analysis, we surveyed 3,589 adults from April 7 to April 13, 2025. Everyone who took part in this survey is a member of the Center’s American Trends Panel (ATP), a group of people recruited through national, random sampling of residential addresses who have agreed to take surveys regularly. This kind of recruitment gives nearly all U.S. adults a chance of selection. Interviews were conducted either online or by telephone with a live interviewer. The survey is weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population by gender, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, education and other factors.

Here are the questions used for this report, the topline and the survey methodology.

With President Donald Trump’s second term approaching its 100-day mark, 40% of Americans approve of how he’s handling the job – a decline of 7 percentage points from February.

Trump’s Job Rating Drops, Key Policies Draw Majority Disapproval As He Nears 100 Days_1

And, even as Trump continues to receive high marks from his strongest supporters, several of his key policy actions are viewed more negatively than positively by the public:

59% of Americans disapprove of the administration’s tariff increases, while 39% approve.
55% disapprove of the cuts the administration is making to federal departments and agencies, while 44% approve.

Trump’s use of executive authority also comes in for criticism: 51% of U.S. adults say he is setting too much policy via executive order. Far smaller shares say he is doing about the right amount (27%) or too little (5%) through executive orders.

Note: This survey was conducted after Trump’s April 2 announcement of sweeping new tariffs on nearly all U.S. trading partners, which triggered several days of volatility in U.S. and global stock markets. The survey was in the field on April 9 when Trump paused tariffs on most countries but levied higher rates on China. Americans’ opinions (including those about the economy and tariffs) were largely unchanged throughout the April 7-13 field period.

With many of the administration’s actions facing legal challenges in federal courts, there is widespread – largely bipartisan – sentiment that the administration would have to end an action if a federal court deemed it illegal.

Trump’s Job Rating Drops, Key Policies Draw Majority Disapproval As He Nears 100 Days_2

78% say the Trump administration should have to follow a federal court’s ruling, rising to 88% if the Supreme Court were to issue the ruling.
91% of Democrats and 65% of Republicans say the administration would need to stop an action if a federal court ruled it illegal, rising to 95% of Democrats and 82% of Republicans for a Supreme Court ruling.

However, the latest national survey by Pew Research Center, conducted April 7-13 among 3,589 adults, finds much wider partisan differences in evaluations of Trump’s overall job performance and some key policies.

Seven-in-ten or more Republicans and Republican-leaning independents approve of:

Trump’s job performance (75%)
The administration’s cuts to government (78%)
Increased tariffs (70%)
Ending diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) policies in the federal government (78%)

By comparison, even wider majorities of Democrats and Democratic leaners disapprove of:

Trump’s job performance (93%)
The administration’s cuts to government (89%)
Increased tariffs (90%)
Ending DEI policies in the federal government (86%)

Trump’s job rating compared with his first term and his predecessors

Trump’s Job Rating Drops, Key Policies Draw Majority Disapproval As He Nears 100 Days_3

Trump’s current approval rating of 40% is on par with his rating at this point in his first term. It remains lower than other recent presidents’ approval ratings in the early months of their presidencies.

Among Trump’s predecessors dating back to Ronald Reagan, the only other leader who did not enjoy majority approval at his 100-day mark is Bill Clinton (49% approval in April 1993).

In April 2021, Joe Biden’s job approval rating stood at 59% – though it would drop substantially to 44% by September of that year.

Read Chapter 1 for more on Trump’s approval rating and explore demographic breaks in the detailed tables.

In their own words: How Americans view the first months of Trump’s presidency

Asked to describe what they like most – and least – about the administration’s actions so far, similar topics come up in both questions, though to different degrees.

Immigration actions

Trump’s Job Rating Drops, Key Policies Draw Majority Disapproval As He Nears 100 Days_4

Trump’s immigration actions top the list of what Americans say they like most about the administration: 20% point to immigration, including 7% who specifically mention Trump’s deportation actions. But immigration actions, including deportations, also are cited by 11% of Americans as the thing they like least about the administration.

Approach to governing

About two-in-ten Americans (22%) describe an aspect of Trump’s governing approach as what they like least about the administration. This includes mentions of “carelessness” (3%), Cabinet and other staffing picks (2%), perceived targeting of law firms and universities (2%), and terms like “authoritarian” or “dictator” (3%). Conversely, 11% of Americans cite his “keeping promises” or “getting things done” as what they like most.

Tariffs and cuts to government

Tariffs and trade policy (15%) and government cuts (11%) are both mentioned by at least one-in-ten Americans as actions they like least. But these are also volunteered by sizable shares (6% and 9%, respectively) as aspects of Trump’s presidency they like most.

Views of cuts to the federal government

As the administration continues to plan and implement large-scale reductions across federal agencies, 59% of Americans say it is being “too careless” in how it makes these cuts. And the public is more likely to see the cuts having negative, rather than positive, effects.

51% say the cuts will make the government run worse, while 36% say they will make the government run better.
48% expect the cuts will cost Americans money in the long run. Fewer (41%) say the cuts will save money.

Read Chapter 3 for more on the Trump administration’s actions.

Other key findings

Trump’s Job Rating Drops, Key Policies Draw Majority Disapproval As He Nears 100 Days_5

The public’s economic outlook has turned more negative. While current overall economic evaluations are unchanged from February, Americans are now more likely to say the economy will be worse a year from now (45% now, up from 37% then).

Read Chapter 4 for more on economic views.

Confidence in Trump’s handling of the economy – long a relative strength – has declined. Today, 45% express confidence in Trump to make good decisions about the economy, his lowest rating on this measure in Pew Research Center surveys dating back to 2019. Still, Trump’s economic rating remains higher than Biden’s was throughout his presidency. About half (48%) express confidence in Trump on immigration – his highest-rated issue.

Half of Americans say Trump’s policies are weakening U.S. standing in the world compared with Biden’s policies. About four-in-ten (38%) say Trump’s policies are putting the U.S. in a stronger position internationally. Views of the impact of Trump’s policies on the economy are nearly identical.

Read Chapter 1 for more on Trump’s handling of issues.

Related: Americans Give Early Trump Foreign Policy Actions Mixed or Negative Reviews

The GOP is viewed more favorably than the Democratic Party, a shift from recent years. Views of the Republican Party have trended more positive over the last year, and 43% now have a favorable view. Views of the Democratic Party are little changed over the last few years, with 38% now expressing a favorable view.

Source: PEW

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Thomas

Cryptocurrency

On April 23, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced that U.S. and India are close to finalizing a tariff agreement.

This agreement is fueling optimism in financial markets, leading to notable gains in both equity and crypto sectors.

U.S.-India Tariff Deal: Market Implications

Janet Yellen, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, stated that the U.S. and India are close to finalizing a tariff agreement. This announcement aligns with her consistent efforts to streamline international trade policy and reduce global economic friction.

The progressing negotiations hint at a decrease in trade tension, positively influencing market sentiment. The potential agreement is expected to strengthen economic ties between the two nations, facilitating smoother trade transactions.

Bitcoin Hits $92,625 as Trade Talks Progress

Did you know? In previous U.S.-India trade discussions, positive outcomes typically spurred financial markets, reinforcing investor confidence and generally promoting risk-on trading behavior across sectors.

As of April 23, Bitcoin's price is $92,625.23, per CoinMarketCap data. The cryptocurrency's current market cap is $1.84 trillion, commanding a 63.34% dominance. BTC has gained 2.15% over the last 24 hours, with a seven-day increase of 9.1%.

Bitcoin(BTC), daily chart, screenshot on CoinMarketCap at 15:49 UTC on April 23, 2025.

Source: CoinMarketCap

Experts from the Coincu research team highlight the potential regulatory easing as U.S.-India trade discussions progress. Heightened international cooperation could provide insights into more adaptive policies, possibly benefiting regulatory clarity in cryptocurrency markets. As Janet Yellen put it, "tariff negotiations could never be a lengthy process" and emphasized that the U.S. and India are very close to reaching an agreement on a tariff deal.