Israel Suggests Further Attacks On Qatar Possible: "We'll Get Them Next Time"

Summary:

Israel's leaders are doubling down on (indirect) threats toward Qatar after Tuesday's surprise strike on a Doha home and office which killed five top Hamas leaders and negotiators.

Qatari leaders have expressed outrage over the violation of their country's sovereignty, but Israeli Ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter, has said Wednesday that Israel could strike Qatar again if it harbors terrorists - though oddly, the Hamas team was there as part of public US-backed diplomatic talks.

"If we didn’t get them this time, we’ll get them the next time," Amb. Leiter told Fox News. He further declared that the strikes on Qatar's capital might "actually advance the efforts for a ceasefire and peace." President Trump had actually said something similar.

"Right now, we may be subject to a little bit of criticism," the Israeli diplomat said. "They'll get over it. And Israel is being changed for the better. The region is being changed for the better as we remove these enemies of peace and these enemies of Western civilization from their ability to implement terrorism," he added.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said something similar, which is sure anger Qatari leaders further. "I say to Qatar and all countries that provide shelter to terrorists, either deport them or bring them to justice. Because if you don't, we will," he said.

And referencing 9/11 memorial events in the Wednesday comments, Netanyahu said: "Tomorrow is September 11th. We remember September 11th. On that day, Islamist terrorists committed the worst crime on American soil since the founding of the United States. We also have September 11th."

He continued, "We remember October 7th. On that day, Islamist terrorists committed the worst crime against the Jewish people since the Holocaust. What did America do in the wake of September 11th? It promised to hunt down the terrorists who committed this terrible crime, wherever they may be."

This suggests Israel believes itself to have 'freedom of action' to conduct 'counter-terror' operations across the whole region.

Netanyahu gave his televised address in English:

Meanwhile, Qatar's relations with the US also looked strained, as its Foreign Ministry has rejected that the country was notified of the attack ahead of time. "I completely reject that the Americans informed us before the attack. Israel's action is a terrorist act," a statement said. This despite Doha hosting US CENTCOM operational headquarters, and having close ties with US intelligence as well as Gulf GCC countries.

The Abraham Accords could unravel, or at the very least it is not expected the Trump-brokered pact will expand.

Source: Zero Hedge

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Winkelmann

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UBS Group AG Chief Executive Officer Sergio Ermotti said the impact of global tariffs on the US economy and Federal Reserve monetary policy remains unclear.“In the US, we still believe that growth will be there but the inflation question and how it plays out into the central bank’s policies remains open,” Ermotti said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Hong Kong on Thursday.While a reduction to interest rates by the Federal Reserve at its Sept. 16-17 meeting is baked into expectations, beyond that investors are shifting predictions on the pace of policy adjustments.

“The true issue on tariffs will be seen on consumers,” Ermotti, 65, said. “In the US, we need to see exactly if there is an inflationary aspect of tariffs. I think it’s unclear.”Goldman Sachs Group Inc. CEO David Solomon signaled this week that there’s no need for the Fed to rapidly cut rates, diverging from the Trump administration’s pressure on the central bank to loosen monetary policy.The Swiss economy ministry is seeking input from UBS as it scrambles to get an improved US trade deal, Bloomberg reported last month. The Trump administration has imposed 39% levies on Switzerland’s exports to the US, the highest tariff rate for any developed nation, posing a major threat to businesses and the economy.

The potential role in helping the government navigate the tariffs could help boost UBS’s standing with Swiss authorities after relations tensed over proposed capital rules that the bank opposes.Ermotti described the capital proposal as “excessive” and called the debate on banking regulation in Switzerland a “huge distraction.”Switzerland unveiled proposals to toughen its bank capital rules following the 2023 collapse of Credit Suisse, which was merged into UBS to create a lender that would likely be too big to rescue. The move could add as much as $26 billion to UBS’s existing capital demands, according to government estimates.

That has led to debate over whether the country’s largest lender might limit its growth or even move headquarters. Ermotti reiterated that the bank has no plans to shrink its business and wants to keep operating out of Switzerland.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 11

FRANKFURT - Governing Council of the ECB holds monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt(final day)

CLEVELAND – Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland issues Median CPI for August - 1500 GMT.

DUBLIN - Participation in panel discussion by European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery at "Lead, Innovate, Achieve: Championing Sustainability and Social Inclusion for 25 Years" organised by Business in the Community Ireland (BITCI) - 0830 GMT.

FRANKFURT - The ECB Podcast: President Christine Lagarde presents the latest monetary policy decisions - 1415 GMT.

LONDON - Bank of England executive director Sasha Mills speaks at Euroclear conference panel on modernising securities markets - 1510 GMT.

STOCKHOLM - Riksbank Governor Erik Thedéen gives a speech on how the control system is intended to function in an environment where the Riksbank is now reducing its holdings of securities. This will place greater demands on the banks to act in the overnight loan market and, if necessary, borrow and invest in the Riksbank - 1100 GMT.

WASHINGTON, D.C. - Federal Reserve issues Quarterly Financial Accounts of the United States - 1600 GMT.

FRANKFURT - ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks to reporters following the Governing Council's monthly monetary policy meeting - 1245 GMT

BERLIN - Press conference following the Governing Council meeting of the ECB in Frankfurt - 1230 GMT.

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 12

MADRID, Spain - Bank of Spain Governor, Jose Luis Escriva, interviewed in national radio station RNE - 0700 GMT

HELSINKI - ECB policy maker Olli Rehn holds press conference in Finland - 0800 GMT.

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 15

PARIS - Participation by ECB President Christine Lagarde in ‘Conversations pour demain’ on the occasion of the 25th anniversary of Institut Montaigne in Paris, France - 1810 GMT.

TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 16

MADRID - ECB board member and Bank of Spain Governor Jose Luis Escriva speaks at an event in Madrid.

STOCKHOLM - Riksbank executive board meeting - 0700 GMT

WASHINGTON, D.C. - U.S. Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) starts its two-day meeting on interest rates (to Sept. 17)

WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 17

FRANKFURT - Opening remarks by ECB President Christine Lagarde at 10th ECB Annual Research Conference joint with Stanford's Hoover Institution on “The Next Financial Crisis?” in Frankfurt, Germany - 0730 GMT.

MILAN, Italy - Participation by ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone in Associazione Bancaria Italiana's Executive Committee meeting in Milan, Italy - 0800 GMT.

AMSTERDAM - Keynote speech by ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone at De Nederlandsche Bank's Resilience Conference in Amsterdam, Netherlands - 1115 GMT.

WASHINGTON, D.C. - U.S. Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces its decision on interest rates followed by statement - 1800 GMT

WASHINGTON, D.C. - U.S. Federal Reserve chairperson holds a news conference

OTTAWA - Bank of Canada key policy interest rate announcement - 1345 GMT.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 18

LONDON - Keynote speech by Liz Oakes, external member of the Financial Policy Committee, Bank of England, at the Cross Market Operational Resilience Group 2025 conference – 1345 GMT.

MARSEILLE, France - Video message by ECB President Christine Lagarde at opening plenary of 1st edition of Global Leadership by Women Summit in Marseille, France - 0710 GMT.

FRANKFURT - Participation by ECB Board Member Claudia Buch in panel “Noisy Experts? Discretion in Regulation” at 10th ECB Annual Research Conference joint with Stanford's Hoover Institution on “The Next Financial Crisis?” in Frankfurt, Germany - 0800 GMT.

LONDON - Participation by ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos in livestreamed MNI Connect discussion 'Euro Area Growth and Inflation Outlook' in London, United Kindgom - 0800 GMT.

OTTAWA - Speech by Ron Morrow, Executive Director of Payments, Supervision and Oversight, Bank of Canada – 1930 GMT.

OSLO - Norway Central Bank announces interest rate decision and Monetary Policy Report 3/25 - 0800 GMT

LONDON - Bank of England announces rate decision and publishes the minutes of the meeting, after the rate decision - 1100 GMT

TOKYO - Bank of Japan holds Monetary Policy Meeting (to Sept. 19)

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 19

BEIJING - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks to reporters after the central bank concludes its policy meeting - 0230 GMT.

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 22

TRONDHEIM, Norway - Speech by Deputy Governor of Norges Bank Pål Longva to Norges Bank’s Regional Network at BI Norwegian Business School in Trondheim.

BERGEN, Norway - Speech by Governor of Norges Bank Ida Wolden Bache to Bergen Næringsråd at Hotel Norge.

CLEVELAND, United States - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack speaks on "The Fed's Role in the Economy and Impact on Everyday Life" before a "Fed Talk" event, in Cleveland, Ohio. - 1600 GMT

WASHINGTON DC - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem speaks on the outlook for the U.S. economy and monetary policy at the Brookings Institution – 1400 GMT.

OTTAWA - Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki is panellist at a Workshop, “Monetary policy frameworks: recent developments and outlook – an international comparative view”, jointly organized by the BIS, the ECB and SUERF by videoconference – 1945 GMT.

STOCKHOLM - Meeting of the Executive Board of the Riksbank – 0830 GMT.

STOCKHOLM - Riksbank holds Monetary policy meeting at which the Executive Board takes a decision on monetary policy including the policy rate - 0700 GMT

TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 23

SASKATOON, Canada - Speech by Tiff Macklem, Bank of Canada Governor at Saskatchewan Trade and Export Partnership (STEP) - Greater Saskatoon Chamber of Commerce – 1830 GMT.

STOCKHOLM - Riksbank publishes monetary policy decision, including the policy rate and the Monetary Policy report for September 2025 - 0730 GMT

STOCKHOLM - The Riksbank is arranging a press conference on the September monetary policy decision - 0900 GMT

WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 24

SALT LAKE CITY, United States - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly speaks on the economic outlook before the annual Spencer Fox Eccles Convocation presented by the National Association of Corporate Directors, Utah Chapter, in Salt Lake City, Utah. - 2010 GMT

BERLIN - German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil to speak on Germany's investment strategy and the future of the EU at Hertie School in Berlin - 1430 GMT

TOKYO - Bank of Japan releases Minutes of Monetary Policy Meeting held on Jul. 30 and 31 - 2350 GMT

BERLIN - Governing Council of the ECB holds non-monetary policy meeting (Virtual)

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 25

GRAND RAPIDS, United States - Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before Crain's Power Lunch, "The Fed and the Economy: Trends for West Michigan," in Grand Rapids, Mich. - 1220 GMT

SALT LAKE CITY, United States - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly participates in conversation before the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 2025 Western Bankers Forum, in Salt Lake City, Utah. - 1930 GMT

BERN - Swiss National Bank (SNB) Monetary policy assessment with news conference - 0730 GMT

BERLIN - General Council meeting of the ECB (Virtual)

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 26

STOCKHOLM - Riksbank general council meeting - 1100 GMT

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 29

SAPPORO – Speech by BOJ Board Member Asahi Noguchi at a meeting of the Sapporo Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Sapporo – 0530 GMT.

FRANKFURT - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack participates in policy panel before hybrid "Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference 2025" hosted by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Center for Inflation Research and the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, in Frankfurt, Germany – 1200 GMT.

STOCKHOLM - Riksbank publishes minutes from the monetary policy discussion on 22 September 2025 - 0730 GMT

TOKYO - Bank of Japan to release summary of opinions from board members at its Sept. 18-19 policy meeting - 2350 GMT

TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 30

CHICAGO - Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee participates in fireside chat before the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Midwest Agriculture Conference: Midwest Agriculture and Trade Uncertainty - 1700 GMT.

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 1

HELSINKI - ECB policymaker and Finnish central bank governor Olli Rehn meets with Finnish media in Helsinki. - 0800 GMT

OTTAWA – Bank of Canada publishing a summary of monetary policy deliberations by the Governing Council for the policy decision - 1730 GMT

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 2

TOKYO - BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida to deliver speech at annual securities' lobby meeting - 0635 GMT.

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 3

TOKYO - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda to meet business leaders in Osaka, hold news conference – 0105 GMT.

MONDAY, OCTOBER 6

EDINBURGH, United Kingdom - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks at Scotland's Global Investment Summit.

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 8

WASHINGTON DC - Federal Open Market Committee issues minutes from its meeting of September 16-17, 2025 – 1800 GMT.

WELLINGTON - Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holds Monetary Policy Review and OCR - 0100 GMT

STOCKHOLM - Riksbank executive board meeting - 0700 GMT

MONDAY, OCTOBER 13

LONDON - Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee Member Megan Greene gives the keynote speech at the Society of Professional Economists' annual conference - 1105 GMT.

PHILADELPHIA - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Anna Paulson speaks on "A View from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia" before the National Association for Business Economics 67th Annual Meeting, "Global Economy in Transition: Finding Opportunity Amid Disruption" - 1610 GMT

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 14

WASHINGTON DC - Fireside chat with Deputy Governor of RBA Andrew Hauser, at the NYU Money Marketeers – 2145 GMT.

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 15

WASHINGTON DC - Federal Reserve issues the Beige Book - 1800 GMT

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 17

WASHINGTON DC - Panel participation by RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, at the Institute of International Finance (IIF) – 0715 GMT.

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 21

WASHINGTON - Federal Reserve Board hosts a conference on payments innovation, to include panel discussions on several aspects of payments innovation, including the convergence of traditional and decentralized finance; emerging stablecoin use cases and business models; the intersection of artificial intelligence and payments; and the tokenization of financial products and services.

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 22

STOCKHOLM - Riksbank Governor Erik Thedéen gives his view on the economy, payments and financial stability in uncertain times - 1600 GMT.

STOCKHOLM - Riksbank executive board meeting - 0700 GMT.

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 28

WASHINGTON, D.C. - U.S. Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) starts its two-day meeting on interest rates (to Oct. 29)

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 29

WASHINGTON, D.C. - U.S. Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces its decision on interest rates followed by statement - 1800 GMT.

WASHINGTON, D.C. - U.S. Federal Reserve chairperson holds a news conference.

OTTAWA - Bank of Canada key policy interest rate announcement and Monetary Policy Report - 1345 GMT.

TOKYO - Bank of Japan holds Monetary Policy Meeting (to Oct. 30)

FLORENCE, Italy - The Governing Council of the European Central Bank meets in Florence. The Bank of Italy Governor joins the ECB's President and Vice President at the press conference. (To Oct. 30)

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 30

JAPAN - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks to reporters after the central bank concludes its policy meeting - 0230 GMT.

ROME - ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks to reporters following the Governing Council's monthly monetary policy meeting in Italy - 1345 GMT.

ROME - Press conference following the Governing Council meeting of the ECB hosted by Bank of Italy - 1230 GMT.

ROME - Governing Council of the ECB holds monetary policy meeting hosted by Bank of Italy.

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 4

STOCKHOLM - Riksbank holds Monetary policy meeting at which the Executive Board takes a decision on monetary policy including the policy rate - 0800 GMT.

TOKYO - Bank of Japan releases Minutes of Monetary Policy Meeting held on Sept. 18 and 19 - 2350 GMT.

WELLINGTON - Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) publishes 6-monthly Financial Stability Report (FSR) (to Nov. 5)

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 5

STOCKHOLM - Riksbank publishes monetary policy decision, including the policy rate, and the Monetary Policy update for November 2025 - 0830 GMT.

STOCKHOLM - The Riksbank is arranging a press conference on the November monetary policy decision - 1000 GMT.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 6

OSLO - Norway Central Bank announces interest rate decision - 0900 GMT.

LONDON - Bank of England to publishes Monetary Policy Report - 1200 GMT.

LONDON - Bank of England announces rate decision and publishes the minutes of the meeting, after the rate decision - 1200 GMT.

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 9

TOKYO - Bank of Japan to release summary of opinions from board members at its Oct. 29-30 policy meeting - 2350 GMT.

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 11

STOCKHOLM - Riksbank executive board meeting - 0800 GMT.

STOCKHOLM - Riksbank publishes minutes from the monetary policy meeting on 4 November 2025 - 0830 GMT.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 13

STOCKHOLM - Riksbank publishes Financial Stability Report 2025:2 - 0830 GMT.

STOCKHOLM - Riksbank holds press conference on financial stability - 1000 GMT.

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 14

STOCKHOLM - Riksbank general council meeting - 1200 GMT.

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 19

BERLIN - Governing Council of the ECB holds non-monetary policy meeting (Virtual).

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 20

BERLIN - General Council meeting of the ECB (Virtual).

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 26

WELLINGTON - Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holds Monetary Policy Statement and OCR - 0100 GMT.

STOCKHOLM - Riksbank executive board meeting - 0800 GMT.

Source: TradingView

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James Whitman

Central Bank

Economic

Key points:

● Deposit rate to remain at 2%

● Debate over more easing to simmer for months

● Economy holding up but tariffs impact not yet fully felt

● Decision at 1215 GMT, Lagarde press conference at 1245 GMT

The European Central Bank is set to leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday as inflation remains in line with its target, but a fraught trade and political outlook means it will keep alive the prospect of further easing.

The ECB halved its key rate to 2% in the year to June but has been on hold ever since, arguing that the 20-country euro zone economy is in a "good place", even if more easing cannot be ruled out.

Data over the summer has only confirmed this sanguine view, giving policymakers time to understand how U.S. tariffs, higher German government spending and political turmoil in France might impact growth and inflation.

This makes it likely that ECB President Christine Lagarde will once again aim to be "deliberately uninformative" about the future path of interest rates - as in July, when she batted back every question on the way forward.

But Lagarde is unlikely to close the door on further rate cuts, especially since inflation is projected to dip below the ECB's 2% target next year, keeping alive market bets that a final "insurance" cut could come around the turn of the year.

"While officially the Governing Council sees inflation risks as broadly balanced over the medium term, most members probably still regard downside risks as somewhat more prominent," UniCredit analysts said in a note.

"The ECB will probably leave the door open for a further rate reduction if downside risks were to intensify."

In any case, the debate is at the margins and focuses on just a single rate cut, indicating that the ECB is done with the bulk of changes to monetary policy and rates are likely to stay around this level for an extended period.

The ECB will announce its decision at 1215 GMT, followed by Lagarde's 1245 GMT news conference.

RISKS

The key debate will be around how policymakers see risks.

Hawkish Governing Council members, who are opposed to further easing, say the euro zone economy has been unexpectedly resilient to trade tensions and that growth is well supported by buoyant private consumption.

They point to rebounding industrial production and a surge in German government spending to argue that growth will remain on a moderately upward path.

Although U.S. President Donald Trump's 15% tariffs on European Union imports are higher than predicted, firms are showing adaptability and the certainty of having agreed a deal offsets some of the negatives.

"We think the ECB's easing cycle has ended," UBS economist Reinhard Cluse said. "We think the ECB will not cut rates further in light of the sizeable fiscal stimulus targeting defence and infrastructure, which is likely to be increasingly visible from early 2026."

But policy doves say that tariffs have yet to fully work their way through the economy and could dampen an already low growth rate, reversing the rise in consumption.

This could then weigh on prices next year, just when inflation is seen dipping below target, raising the risk that firms will change their pricing and wage-setting, thus entrenching anaemic price growth, much like before the pandemic.

The U.S. Federal Reserve's looming rate cuts are meanwhile likely to help the euro firm against the dollar, putting downward pressure on prices.

"What we have seen since June, to us, will reinforce disinflationary forces," Bank of America said. "An economy with a negative output gap, below-trend growth, and an inflation undershoot that is about to start and will likely become persistent, calls for some stimulus."

A fresh bout of political chaos in Paris, which has pushed French bond yields sharply higher, is another headache for the euro zone's central bank.

It has tools to intervene, but only for an "unwarranted and disorderly" rise in borrowing costs, which economists say is clearly not the case now, given France's high debt and feeble economic growth.

Source: Reuters

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James Whitman

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Emerging markets are becoming more attractive as the prospect of an upcoming US rate cut — combined with softer local inflation and relatively low public debt — strengthens the investment case, according to Navin Hingorani, Singapore-based portfolio manager at Eastspring Investments.

“Emerging markets are trading at a 65% discount to the US, so we’re seeing opportunities across different markets, across different sectors,” Hingorani said in an interview, adding he’s looking for opportunities in the Philippines, Indonesia and South Korea, as well as Latin America.

“One of the key things is real rates are still very high across emerging markets — they’re as high as they’ve been since the financial crisis,” he added. “As the US moves into a rate-cutting cycle, that will be very positive for emerging markets.”

The Federal Reserve is widely expected next week to ease monetary policy for the first time this year, after data showed US jobs growth cooled notably in August and unemployment climbed to the highest since 2021.

Hingorani also pointed to increasing political instability in the developed world from Japan to the US and France, exacerbated by skyrocketing public debt.

As a long-term investor, Hingorani said, he can look through the recent unrest in Indonesia, which was rattled by its worst unrest in years and the sudden departure of Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati.

“We do not react to short-term market events until we understand the event’s longer-term implications,” he said. “There is therefore no change to our view or allocation at present.”

He recalls delegates at an investment forum in Chile last year were asked to sum up “emerging markets” in a poll. “Political risk” dominated the response, reflecting unease ahead of a packed election calendar across Indonesia to South Africa, Mexico and India.

Fast forward to now: Hingorani says the narrative has flipped. Politics is increasingly becoming a fresh source of risk in the developed world, as debt piles strain budgets and political demands, particularly those of President Donald Trump, threaten central bank independence.

That’s also being reflected in asset price performance. Yields on 30-year government debt for advanced economies, as of Friday, have jumped an average 16 basis points over the past month, a sign of growing investor angst, compared with about 4 basis points for developing nations. Equities tell a similar story, with emerging-market stocks outperforming US shares this year for the first time since 2017, after eking out a meager 5% return last year.

Gross debt as a share of annual economic output in developing markets is forecast to average around 75% this year compared with roughly 125% for the Group of Seven developed countries, according to the International Monetary Fund. For Indonesia, the figure is around 40%, while in Vietnam it’s just 33% — all well below the anxiety-driving levels in parts of the developed world.

That fiscal prudence is reinforced by inflation that’s either low or falling, and by ample foreign-exchange reserves that give central banks room to smooth volatility. Emerging market outperformance has made his conversations with clients and prospects “a little bit easier” in recent weeks, he added.

“There’s this realization that the perception that emerging markets tend to be riskier may not be warranted,” Hingorani said.

Source: Bloomberg

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Manuel

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Political

President Donald Trump's goal of appointing a majority of the Federal Reserve's board of governors faced a setback late Tuesday when a court blocked his unprecedented attempt to fire Lisa Cook.

But the very next next day, his nominee to replace another Fed governor moved forward, giving him one more opportunity during his second term to reshape the Fed.

Over time, Trump will almost certainly get the lower short-term interest rate he is seeking, economists say, although it's unlikely the Fed will shave 3 percentage points from its current level of about 4.3%, as he has demanded, even if he gets most of the seats on the seven-member board.

On Wednesday, Trump got one step closer to reaching a majority when the Senate Banking Committee approved the president's nomination of Stephen Miran, one of his top economic advisers, to an open position on the Fed's board. The full Senate is expected to approve Miran shortly. He could end up participating in the central bank's policy meeting next week, when it is expected to reduce its key interest rate by a quarter-point to about 4.1%.

But he took a step back with Cook after a federal court blocked Trump's attempt to fire her late Tuesday. Jia Cobb, a judge appointed by former president Joe Biden, ruled that the firing was illegal because the administration did not provide sufficient cause to remove her. That means Cook is also likely to participate in next week's Fed meeting.

The Trump administration appealed that ruling Wednesday, and many observers expect the case could end up at the Supreme Court.

Here are where things stand regarding Trump, the Federal Reserve, and its traditional independence.

Trump's ability to fire Cook

Fed governors aren't like Cabinet members or other officials who serve at the pleasure of the president. Under the law governing the Fed, they can't be fired over policy disagreements, but can be dismissed “for cause.”

Trump has accused Cook of committing mortgage fraud when she bought two properties in 2021 —before she joined the Fed — which she said were both “primary residences.” Such a designation can result in lower down payments and mortgage rates than if one of the homes was classified as a rental or second house.

On Tuesday, Cobb ruled that Fed governors can only be fired for malfeasance or other actions while in office and said the White House also failed to provide Cook with a chance to formally respond to charges against her.

The appeals court or the Supreme Court could stay the district court's decision, which would remove Cook from the Fed's board until her case is resolved. The Supreme Court has shown sympathy for Trump's arguments that the president can remove many officials from agencies previously seen as independent. But in a case earlier this year, the Supreme Court said that the central bank is a “unique, semi-private entity” and suggested its officials may have greater protection from being removed by the White House.

Miran's appointment raises concerns over Fed independence

Trump picked Miran to replace former Fed governor Adriana Kugler, who stepped down Aug. 1. Miran would, if approved, simply finish her term, which expires in January.

Miran has taken the unusual step of planning to keep his job as the chair of the White House's Council of Economic Advises if he does win Senate approval. While previous presidents have appointed their aides to the Fed, they have always then stepped down from White House jobs.

Nearly all economists and most Wall Street investors prefer a Fed that is independent from day-to-day politics. They worry that if the Fed falls under the control of the White House, it will keep its key interest rate lower than justified by economic fundamentals to satisfy Trump’s demands for cheaper borrowing.

That could accelerate inflation and over time could also push up longer-term interest rates, such as those on mortgages and car loans. Investors may demand a higher yield to own bonds to offset greater inflation in the future, lifting borrowing costs for the U.S. government and the entire economy.

Where things currently stand with the Fed

If Miran is confirmed, he will be the third Trump appointee to the Fed's seven-member board, after Trump appointed Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman in his first term. If Cook is able to keep her seat, then Trump's next opportunity would arrive in May, when current Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term ends.

It's possible that Powell could pull an unusual move and remain on the Fed's board even after stepping down as chair. If so, that would deprive Trump of another appointment and would force him to choose a new chair from the existing seven governors.

Powell has declined to answer when he has been asked whether he will leave the board after his term as chair ends. But if he does leave, then Trump could appoint a fourth member and gain a majority.

The four other governors are serving terms that last beyond the end of Trump's time in office. Governors are appointed to 14-year terms, in part to shield them from political pressure.

Still, many governors step down before their terms end, so Trump may have more opportunities to add loyalists to the board.

“Over time the composition of the Fed aligns with the views of the administration because you pick like-minded people,” said Vincent Reinhart, chief economist at BNY, a bank. “The direction of travel is for lower rates.”

Source: AP

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Political

President Trump’s CFTC chair nominee Brian Quintenz alleged that Tyler Winklevoss attempted to derail his confirmation after Quintenz refused to promise favorable treatment regarding the exchange’s past litigation with the commission.

According to private text messages released by Quintenz on Sept. 10, Winklevoss shared Gemini’s 13-page complaint against the CFTC Inspector General in a July 2025 exchange.

He claimed the agency pursued “dubious false statements charges” and “selectively and unfairly weaponized” enforcement against the company.

Winklevoss described seven years of “lawfare trophy hunting” by the commission in the leaked messages.

Transparency claims

Winklevoss questioned why the CFTC sued Gemini rather than “parties that defrauded us of $10mil” or CBOE. He also questioned why the commission continued pursuing Gemini “after it knew its investigation was started based on a false whistleblower.”

Quintenz consistently refused to make specific commitments, stating that “any decision or response to your complaint should be made by and given the full weight of the confirmed chair.”

He committed only to addressing matters “fully and fairly if and when I am confirmed,” while emphasizing the importance of proper process.

Winklevoss then expressed disappointment that Quintenz hadn’t reviewed their complaint despite previous discussions.

Additionally, the Gemini co-founder stressed that “cultural reform, which includes rectifying what happened to us, should be the highest priority” and urged Quintenz to align with President Donald Trump’s mandate to end regulatory warfare.

Quintenz explained his approach of waiting for confirmation before forming judgments. He added that he decided “to wait until I can get into the role to get that view as opposed to trying to get it now through current leadership.”

He described having “a very poor experience with that on every important issue or decision so far” when dealing with existing commission staff.

The message release comes two days before Gemini’s planned IPO on Sept. 12.

Quintenz claimed that Winklevoss contacted Trump in an effort to pause his confirmation for undisclosed reasons following their exchange.

He added that he disclosed the discussions with Winklevoss to protect the President from misinformation and demonstrate his commitment to transparency over personal advancement.