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Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, ending a 12-day conflict that had caused millions to flee Tehran and raised fears of further escalation in the region. But has the calm really arrived?
U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Monday a complete ceasefire between Israel and Iran, potentially ending the 12-day war that saw millions flee Tehran and prompted fears of further escalation in the war-torn region.
Israel, joined by the United States on the weekend, has carried out attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities, after alleging Tehran was getting close to obtaining a nuclear weapon.
"On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, 'THE 12 DAY WAR'," Trump wrote on his Truth Social site.
While an Iranian official confirmed that Tehran had agreed to a ceasefire, there was no immediate comment yet from Israel.
A senior White House official said Israel had agreed so long as Iran does not launch further attacks and that Trump brokered the deal in a call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Trump appeared to suggest that Israel and Iran would have some time to complete any missions that are underway, at which point the ceasefire would begin in a staged process.
Iran denies ever having a nuclear weapons program but Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has said that if it wanted to, world leaders "wouldn't be able to stop us".
Israel, which is not a party to the international Non-Proliferation Treaty, is the only country in the Middle East believed to have nuclear weapons. Israel does not deny or confirm that.
Qatar's Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani secured Tehran's agreement during a call with Iranian officials, an official briefed on the negotiations told Reuters on Tuesday.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff were in direct and indirect contact with the Iranians, the White House official said.
Neither Iran’s U.N. mission nor the Israeli embassy in Washington immediately responded to separate requests for comment from Reuters.
Hours earlier, three Israeli officials had signaled Israel was looking to wrap up its campaign in Iran soon and had passed the message on to the United States.
Netanyahu had told government ministers whose discussions ended early on Tuesday not to speak publicly, Israel's Channel 12 television reported.
Markets reacted favorably to the news.
S&P 500 futures rose 0.4% late on Monday, suggesting traders expect the U.S. stock market to open with gains on Tuesday.




U.S. crude futures fell in early Asian trading hours on Tuesday to their lowest level in more than a week after Trump said a ceasefire had been agreed, relieving worries of supply disruption in the region.
There did not appear to be calm yet in the region.
The Israeli military issued two evacuation warnings in less than two hours to residents of areas in the Iranian capital Tehran, one late on Monday and one early on Tuesday.
Israeli Army radio reported early on Tuesday that alarms were activated in the southern Golan Heights area due to fears of hostile aircraft intrusion.
Earlier on Monday, Trump said he would encourage Israel to proceed towards peace after dismissing Iran's attack on an American air base that caused no injuries and thanking Tehran for the early notice of the strikes.
Iran's handling of the attack recalled earlier clashes with the United States and Israel, with Tehran seeking a balance between saving face with a military response but without provoking a cycle of escalation it can't afford.
Tehran appears to have achieved that goal.
Iran's attack came after U.S. bombers dropped 30,000-pound bunker-busters on Iranian underground nuclear facilities at the weekend, joining Israel's air war.
Much of Tehran's population of 10 million has fled after days of bombing.
The Trump administration maintains that its aim was solely to destroy Iran's nuclear program, not to open a wider war.
"Iran was very close to having a nuclear weapon," Vice President JD Vance said in an interview on Fox News' "Special Report with Bret Baier."
"Now Iran is incapable of building a nuclear weapon with the equipment they have because we destroyed it," Vance said.
But in a social media post on Sunday, Trump spoke of toppling the hardline clerical rulers who have been Washington's principal foes in the Middle East since Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Israel, however, had made clear that its strikes on Evin prison - a notorious jail for housing political prisoners - and other targets in Tehran were intended to hit the Iranian ruling apparatus broadly, and its ability to sustain power.
Oil prices tumbled on Tuesday to their lowest level in more than a week as U.S. President Donald Trump said a ceasefire has been agreed between Iran and Israel, relieving worries of supply disruption in the area.
Brent crude futures fell $2.69 or 3.76% to $68.79 a barrel as of 0006 GMT, after falling more than 4% earlier in the session and touching its lowest level since June 11.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude slumped $2.7, or 3.94%, to $65.46 per barrel, having hit its weakest level since June 9 earlier in the session and falling around 6%.
Trump announced on Monday that Israel and Iran have fully agreed to a ceasefire, adding that Iran will begin the ceasefire immediately, followed by Israel after 12 hours. If both sides maintain peace, the war will officially end after 24 hours, concluding a 12-day conflict.
He said that a "complete and total" ceasefire will go into force with a view to ending the conflict between the two nations.
"With the ceasefire news we are now seeing a continuation of the risk premium built into crude oil price last week all but evaporate," said Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG.
Iran is OPEC's third-largest crude producer, and the easing of tensions would allow it to export more oil and prevent supply disruptions, a major factor in oil prices jumping in recent days.
Both the oil contracts settled over 7% lower in the previous session after rallying to five-month-highs after the U.S. attacked Iran's nuclear facilities over the weekend, stoking fears of a broadening in the Israel-Iran conflict.
"Technically, the overnight sell-off reinforces a layer of resistance between approximately $78.40 (October 2024 and June 2025 highs) and $80.77 (the year-to-date high), and it's clear that it will take something extremely unexpected and detrimental to supply for crude oil to break through this layer of resistance," Sycamore added.
• Bitcoin fell below $100,000 amid U.S.-Iran conflict escalation.
• Market cap decreased by 7% following geopolitical tensions.
• Ethereum and XRP also saw significant declines.
Bitcoin prices dropped to $98,500 after U.S. airstrikes on Iran's nuclear sites authorized by President Trump, causing significant market unrest.
The event underscores Bitcoin's sensitivity to geopolitical events, affecting market stability and investor sentiment in real time.
The sudden drop in Bitcoin below $100,000 was influenced by military actions authorized by President Donald Trump. Heightened geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict drove this market reaction. Prices for Bitcoin reached a low near $98,500.
The cryptocurrency market experienced sharp declines, paralleling traditional market reactions to geopolitical instability. Ethereum saw a 10% drop, while the total market capitalization fell by 7% to $3.23 trillion.
The financial implications stretched across multiple sectors. Bitcoin's drop reflected typical risk-off behavior, highlighting the crypto market's vulnerability to international crises. XRP declined by 2.6%, adding to the overall downturn of top-100 coins.
While historical patterns show cryptocurrencies react to geopolitical shocks, direct comments from government or regulatory bodies were absent. The crisis underscores how market volatility centers on geopolitical events, affecting both traditional and new financial sectors.
Kirill Kretov of CoinPanel noted the influence of geopolitical tension on Bitcoin's recent fall, underscoring how "Bitcoin’s recent fall is being driven by a potent mix of geopolitical tension and macro uncertainty. As conflict in the Middle East escalates, global risk appetite has sharply declined."
The continuing uncertainties impose significant challenges to market stability as macro risks remain prevalent.





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