Iran Crisis: Death Toll Soars as Tehran Warns US

King Ten

Middle East Situation

Remarks of Officials

Daily News

Political

Summary:

Deadly protests in Iran trigger over 500 deaths; Tehran warns the US against intervention, threatening American military bases as global tensions rise.

Crackdown Intensifies as Unrest Sweeps Nation

Protests across Iran have led to more than 500 deaths, according to a new report from the U.S.-based rights group HRANA. The escalating crisis has prompted Tehran to issue a stark warning to the United States, threatening to target American military bases if President Donald Trump intervenes.

The demonstrations, which began on December 28 over rising prices, have evolved into the most significant challenge to Iran's clerical leadership since 2022. HRANA, which compiles data from activists, reports a death toll including 490 protesters and 48 security personnel. The group also estimates that over 10,600 people have been arrested in just two weeks. Iranian authorities have not released an official casualty count, and Reuters could not independently verify these numbers.

Information from within the country remains limited due to an internet blackout imposed by the government. However, social media footage from Tehran on Saturday showed massive crowds marching and chanting. Another video, verified by Reuters, captured a chaotic scene in the northeastern city of Mashhad, with smoke from street fires filling the night sky amid sounds of explosions.

Figure 1: Social media footage from Mashhad shows streets filled with smoke and fire as protests against the government intensify.

In a counter-narrative, Iranian state television on Sunday aired footage of dozens of body bags at the Tehran coroner's office, attributing the deaths to "armed terrorists."

Tehran's Warning: US Bases and Israel are 'Legitimate Targets'

The Iranian government has responded with force and rhetoric, accusing the United States and Israel of orchestrating the unrest. As President Trump considers his options, which reportedly include military strikes and cyber warfare, Tehran is drawing clear red lines.

Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, Iran's Parliament Speaker and a former Revolutionary Guards commander, warned Washington against any "miscalculation."

"Let us be clear: in the case of an attack on Iran, the occupied territories (Israel) as well as all U.S. bases and ships will be our legitimate target," Qalibaf stated.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday that President Trump was scheduled to receive a briefing on potential actions against Iran, ranging from expanded sanctions to direct military intervention.

This geopolitical tension has placed regional actors on high alert. Israeli sources confirmed their security apparatus was preparing for the possibility of U.S. action. An Israeli military official described the protests as an internal Iranian matter but affirmed that Israel's military was monitoring the situation and was ready to respond "with power if need be."

Iran Blames 'Rioters and Terrorists' for Violence

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian claimed in a television interview that the U.S. and Israel were masterminding the destabilization. He alleged that Iran's enemies had brought in "terrorists" to attack banks, mosques, and public property.

"Families, I ask you: do not allow your young children to join rioters and terrorists who behead people and kill others," Pezeshkian said. He added that his government was prepared to listen to the public's economic concerns.

To bolster the official narrative, state TV has broadcast funeral processions for security personnel killed during the protests in cities like Gachsaran and Yasuj. According to state media, 30 security members will be buried in Isfahan, with another six reported killed by "rioters" in Kermanshah.

Alan Eyre, a former U.S. diplomat and Iran expert, told Reuters he believes it is unlikely the protests will topple the government. "I think it more likely that it puts these protests down eventually, but emerges from the process far weaker," he said, noting the cohesion of Iran's elite and the lack of an organized opposition.

US and Opposition Leaders React to Protests

President Trump has been vocal in his support for the protesters. "Iran is looking at FREEDOM, perhaps like never before. The USA stands ready to help!!!" he posted on social media Saturday.

High-level discussions are ongoing. An Israeli source confirmed that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed potential U.S. intervention in a phone call on Saturday.

Prominent opposition figures have also weighed in. Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran's last shah, praised the protesters' "indescribable bravery" and urged them, "Do not abandon the streets."

Maryam Rajavi, president-elect of the Paris-based National Council of Resistance of Iran, wrote on X that the Iranian people had "asserted control of public spaces and reshaped Iran's political landscape."

Speaking at a cabinet meeting, Netanyahu said Israel was closely monitoring events. "We all hope that the Persian nation will soon be freed from the yoke of tyranny," he said.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Political

National Emergency Declaration to Shield Oil Funds

U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on January 10, 2026, declaring a national emergency to protect Venezuelan oil revenue held in accounts at the U.S. Department of the Treasury. The order blocks any judicial actions such as seizures, liens, or asset forfeitures against these funds, which the administration says should be preserved for diplomatic or governmental purposes rather than falling into the hands of private creditors or foreign adversaries.

According to the White House, allowing such revenue to be tapped by courts or contractors could undermine U.S. efforts to promote stability and otherwise advance policy objectives in Venezuela and the surrounding region. The executive order cites the National Emergencies Act and the International Emergency Economic Powers Act as legal authority for the action, framing the potential loss of these funds as a threat to U.S. national security and foreign policy interests.

Strategic Context and Enforcement

The measure comes amid heightened U.S. involvement in Venezuela following the recent capture of President Nicolás Maduro and broader actions to control Venezuelan oil export flows. Under the order, the revenue from the sale of Venezuelan crude and related products deemed sovereign property is to be held in U.S. custody and is not subject to private claims. The directive also blocks unauthorized transfers or dealings in these funds, superseding previous related executive orders.

Simultaneously, the U.S. government has signaled plans to continue marketing Venezuelan oil and manage future sales, including discussions with major U.S. oil companies on potential investment and involvement in Venezuela’s oil industry. However, industry leaders like ExxonMobil have expressed caution about investing without significant reforms due to the country’s longstanding instability and legal uncertainties.

International and Domestic Implications

The declaration has broader implications for international law and creditor rights. It effectively places Venezuelan oil revenues beyond reach of ongoing claims by companies like ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, which have long-standing arbitration and compensation cases against Venezuela dating back to past nationalizations. At the same time, by asserting control over these oil funds, the United States aims to leverage Venezuelan resources in support of its regional policy objectives, raising concerns among international observers about the balance between sovereign asset protection and geopolitical influence.

In sum, Trump’s national emergency order represents a significant move to cement U.S. control over Venezuelan oil revenues amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Western Hemisphere, blending economic strategy with broader foreign policy priorities.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Ukadike Micheal

Remarks of Officials

Political

European powers, led by the UK and Germany, are developing plans to increase their military presence in Greenland. The move is a direct response to US President Donald Trump’s stated interest in acquiring the self-governing Danish territory and aims to show that Europe is serious about Arctic security.

Germany is preparing to propose a joint NATO mission to protect the region. Separately, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has been urging allies to step up their security footprint in the High North, discussing the matter with leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

A Direct Response to US Pressure

The recent US raid to capture Venezuela’s leader and the Trump administration's increasingly assertive rhetoric on Greenland have forced European leaders to act quickly. Their strategy is to demonstrate that Europe and NATO already have the region’s security under control, thereby weakening Trump's justification for a potential takeover, according to sources familiar with the discussions.

The diplomatic push comes as German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul prepares to meet with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio this week, where Greenland and NATO's potential role will be on the agenda.

"Because security in the Arctic is becoming increasingly important, I also want to discuss on my trip how we can best bear this responsibility in NATO — in view of old and new rivalries in the region by Russia and China — together," Wadephul said in a statement. "We want to discuss this together in NATO."

President Trump’s long-standing interest in Greenland has sharpened following the Venezuela raid, sparking concern among allies about his readiness to use military force to achieve foreign policy goals. Speaking to reporters on Friday, Trump said of Greenland, "I would like to make a deal, you know, the easy way. But if we don't do it the easy way, we're going to do it the hard way."

Germany's "Arctic Sentry" Proposal

Germany’s plan involves establishing a new NATO mission named "Arctic Sentry." The initiative would be modeled after the alliance's "Baltic Sentry" mission, which was launched a year ago to protect critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea.

This proposal underscores a broader European effort to take a more active role in regional defense, particularly in areas of strategic importance like the Arctic.

UK Spearheads Diplomatic Push

Prime Minister Starmer’s approach is to persuade President Trump of Europe's strategic value to the United States on a range of issues, from countering Russia to enhancing American security. This contrasts with the more openly critical stance of countries like France, which recently warned of threats from American coercion.

Downing Street confirmed that Starmer spoke with Trump last week, where they "discussed Euro-Atlantic security and agreed on the need to deter an increasingly aggressive Russia in the High North." In his conversations with Macron and Merz, Starmer reiterated that "the NATO alliance needed to step up in the region."

Denmark and Greenland Seek a Diplomatic Path

Meanwhile, Denmark is hoping to de-escalate the situation through direct diplomacy. The foreign ministers of Denmark and Greenland, Lars Lokke Rasmussen and Vivian Motzfeldt, are traveling to Washington this week. Their objective is to counter what Copenhagen describes as persistent factual errors and exaggerated security claims that are fueling the debate in the US.

While Trump has not ruled out using military force, Secretary of State Rubio told lawmakers on Tuesday that the administration's primary goal is to purchase Greenland, not to stage a military intervention that could strain the NATO alliance.

"The legitimate interests of all NATO allies, but also those of the inhabitants of the region, must be at the heart of our considerations," Wadephul stated. "Of course, this also applies to Greenland and its people."

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

A Trade Deal Decades in the Making

On January 9, Paraguay’s Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno officially announced that the long-awaited Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between the European Union (EU) and Mercosur will be signed on January 17 in Paraguay. This development follows the European Council’s formal approval of the agreement, marking the culmination of nearly three decades of negotiations since talks began in 1999.

Despite resistance from several EU member states including France and Hungary the agreement received the necessary majority endorsement from the bloc’s 27 members. The deal now awaits formal signing by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa, alongside Mercosur leaders.

Strategic Significance for Global Trade

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva hailed the EU’s approval as a “historic day for multilateralism,” characterizing the FTA as a victory for dialogue, cooperation, and global integration. He emphasized that the agreement reaffirms the importance of international trade as a catalyst for economic growth and mutual prosperity.

Argentina also welcomed the development enthusiastically. Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno described the upcoming signing as a historic milestone for Mercosur and a breakthrough after 26 years of diplomatic effort. The government expects significant export gains, particularly in agriculture.

Preferential Access to One of the World’s Largest Markets

Under the terms of the agreement, the EU will eliminate tariffs on 92% of goods exported from Mercosur countries Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay. An additional 7.5% of exports will receive partial tariff preferences, meaning that 99% of Mercosur’s agricultural exports to the EU will benefit from improved market access.

This trade pact opens the doors to the EU’s massive internal market, encompassing over 450 million consumers and accounting for roughly 15% of global GDP. In return, Mercosur economies collectively valued at around $2.9 trillion are expected to gain a competitive edge in exporting agricultural products, industrial goods, and raw materials to the European market.

Balancing Integration and Protectionism

The EU, while advocating free trade, has also moved to appease domestic opposition by approving supplementary protection mechanisms for its agri-food sector. These include safeguard measures to mitigate the competitive impact of South American imports on European farmers particularly in countries like France, where resistance has been most vocal.

Despite these internal tensions, the bloc has committed to advancing the agreement as a strategic counterweight to rising global protectionism and unilateral trade actions. The EU-Mercosur FTA is expected to become the world’s largest free trade area by population, serving over 700 million consumers.

Regional Commitments and Next Steps

Uruguay’s Foreign Minister Mario Lubetkin confirmed the country’s intent to be among the first to ratify and provisionally implement the agreement. President Yamandú Orsi is expected to attend the signing ceremony, which will take place under Paraguay’s rotating Mercosur presidency.

While formal ratification processes still lie ahead, the anticipated signing is a symbolic and political breakthrough, signaling a renewed push for South-South and intercontinental trade ties. As both blocs seek economic resilience in a volatile global environment, the EU-Mercosur agreement represents a pivotal turn toward deeper, rules-based cooperation across hemispheres.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Commodity

Economic

China Expands Export Controls on Dual-Use Goods to Japan

In a significant escalation of trade friction, China has imposed tighter export controls on rare earth materials and related technologies bound for Japan. The move, confirmed by China's Ministry of Commerce earlier this week, extends to all dual-use items products with both civilian and military applications that may be perceived as bolstering Japan’s defense capabilities. The Chinese government explicitly stated that the new restrictions aim to curb any potential enhancement of Japan’s military strength, even while assuring that average consumers would not be impacted.

This restriction affects not only traditional military-linked goods but also rare earth elements critical to civilian technologies such as electric vehicles, smartphones, wind turbines, and industrial machinery. While some export applications are still being accepted, approval timelines have lengthened, and many requests are being outright denied, according to multiple sources cited by Nikkei.

Geopolitical Context: Taiwan Tensions Spark Backlash

This strategic shift follows a sharp rise in diplomatic tensions between the two nations, triggered by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s statement in November suggesting that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could constitute a direct threat to Japan’s national survival. Beijing condemned the remark as provocative and warned of consequences. The rare earth restrictions appear to be a targeted response, weaponizing economic interdependence to exert pressure on Tokyo.

According to The Wall Street Journal, two major Chinese exporters have already suspended shipments of heavy rare earth elements such as dysprosium and rare-earth magnets to Japanese firms. These elements are vital to Japan’s advanced manufacturing sectors, particularly in producing electric motors and precision electronics.

Licensing Delays and Selective Approvals Tighten the Squeeze

Japanese companies are now experiencing significant uncertainty. While in some cases export applications are still being approved, they face extended review periods and stricter end-user scrutiny. Only select firms typically those refining rare earths in Japan for re-export to the United States, or those with long-established compliance records are seeing limited approvals.

Chinese regulators have intensified their control over the final destination and use of rare earths. A Japanese government official acknowledged that under the new regime, “screening will likely become stricter, and the number of approved licenses may decline.” This aligns with a broader Chinese strategy to consolidate control over high-value supply chains and discourage strategic alignment between U.S. allies.

Japan Faces Strategic Supply Challenges

Japan, long dependent on China for its rare earth imports, faces the renewed threat of strategic resource insecurity. The country has attempted to diversify its rare earth sourcing since China’s 2010 embargo, investing in supply chains across Southeast Asia, Australia, and Africa. However, China remains the dominant global producer, particularly for heavy rare earths used in defense and high-tech industries.

The current restrictions jeopardize Japan’s industrial resilience just as global competition for energy-transition minerals intensifies. Sectors such as EV manufacturing, robotics, and aerospace are particularly vulnerable to rare earth supply disruptions.

China’s latest move illustrates the increasing use of economic tools to enforce geopolitical boundaries in the Asia-Pacific. By targeting dual-use exports and rare earths, Beijing is sending a message that political positions on Taiwan and military posture will have material economic consequences. For Japan, the episode reinforces the urgency of reducing resource dependencies, enhancing stockpiles, and strengthening strategic partnerships with alternative suppliers. As geopolitical rivalry deepens, the line between trade policy and national security continues to blur.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Political

Commodity

Massive Build‑Up of Venezuelan Oil at Sea Signals Market Disruption

Recent weeks have seen a dramatic surge in the volume of Venezuelan crude oil held in floating storage as export routes are disrupted by intensified U.S. pressure and naval enforcement actions. Data indicates that more than 29 million barrels of Venezuela’s oil are now stranded aboard tankers, rising sharply from around 20 million earlier in the week. These stranded barrels have accumulated because vessels are unable to complete deliveries amid heightened risk of interception under U.S. sanctions and blockades as Washington seeks to exert control over Venezuelan oil exports. Bloomberg reported that this oil build‑up represents the highest level of crude floating offshore in several years, reflecting the severity of the export bottleneck.

The situation stems from a broader U.S. operation in late 2025 and early 2026 in which multiple Venezuelan‑linked tankers have been seized or pursued by U.S. forces enforcing a naval embargo targeting sanctioned shipments. Reuters noted that the U.S. Coast Guard and military have boarded and seized several vessels, including those previously carrying Venezuelan crude, as part of a blockade designed to choke off unauthorized oil exports.

China’s Role as a Key Buyer in Flux

China has been one of Venezuela’s largest oil customers in recent years, at times importing hundreds of thousands of barrels per day of Venezuelan crude. However, Chinese refiners and independent importers are scaling back purchases in response to the escalating geopolitical environment and fears that existing shipments may be the last they receive for some time. Bloomberg has noted that while Chinese buyers have historically relied on Venezuelan barrels, significant volumes of sanctioned crude stored at sea will provide only short‑term cushioning as direct flows have essentially halted at the start of 2026.

Beijing has publicly criticized U.S. actions, describing Washington’s demand that Venezuela hand over oil stocks as bullying and a violation of sovereignty. Chinese officials emphasize that Venezuela’s resources belong to its people and must be managed according to international law, highlighting growing diplomatic tensions over energy supply access.

Asian Refiners Seek Alternative Crude Sources

With the Venezuelan supply channel increasingly uncertain, many Asian refiners, particularly in China, are planning to shift toward other heavy crude sources. Reuters reported that Chinese independent refiners, known as teapots, are expected to replace lost Venezuelan volumes with discounted Iranian and Russian crude, which remains available despite sanctions on some flows. This diversification reflects both cost considerations and strategic supply security as Asia adjusts to reduced Venezuelan shipments.

Other Asian buyers, including those in Southeast Asia, are also exploring new suppliers to mitigate the risk posed by Venezuelan export instability. Reports suggest that countries with larger proven reserves and closer logistical links, such as Brunei, are gaining interest among Chinese importers looking to stabilize their crude intake as Venezuela’s exports remain mired in political and legal turmoil.

Geopolitical Implications for Oil Markets

The current impasse over Venezuelan crude underscores how geopolitics can rapidly reshape energy trade patterns. U.S. strategic actions aimed at undermining the Maduro government and asserting American influence in the Western Hemisphere have inadvertently contributed to a floating surplus of barrels while prompting Asia’s refiners to reconfigure supply chains. The accumulation of oil offshore raises questions about storage costs, oil price volatility, and the readiness of consumers in Asia to absorb shifts in crude quality and origin.

In the near term, Asia faces a more fragmented oil supply environment as traditional Venezuelan exports are challenged by enforcement operations and geopolitical backlash. Refiners will likely increase reliance on alternative crude streams, while the diplomatic friction between the U.S. and China over access to Venezuelan oil remains an undercurrent in broader energy and security relations.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Legal Uncertainty and Market Divergence in Asia

As global investors await the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling on the legality of tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump, Asian markets reflect a mix of optimism and caution. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has risen 3% since the start of 2026, signaling confidence in the region’s economic fundamentals. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Asia Dollar Index has edged down 0.1%, revealing investor wariness over unresolved trade policy risks. This divergence underscores the extent to which U.S. legal developments influence Asian market sentiment.

If the Court finds the tariffs unlawful, many of the existing duties could be dismantled, and the U.S. government may be required to refund tens of billions of dollars to importers. Such a move would alleviate immediate stress on global supply chains, strengthen earnings visibility for Asian exporters, and boost risk appetite among investors focused on emerging Asian markets, which are deeply integrated into U.S. trade flows.

However, this potential benefit could prove temporary. Analysts warn that Washington might resort to alternate legislative instruments to reintroduce similar restrictions. This possibility maintains a high degree of policy volatility and limits long-term strategic planning for export-heavy economies.

Sectoral Sensitivity: Winners and Watchpoints

According to Cameron Chui of JPMorgan Private Bank, any rollback would be moderately positive for emerging Asian economies, particularly those with large consumer goods export bases. Countries such as China and India having faced the steepest tariff burdens are poised to benefit more than Japan and South Korea, whose exposure was relatively limited.

In the automotive sector, Japanese and South Korean firms could see order volumes rise if tariffs are loosened, while part suppliers may gain stronger pricing leverage. This would help reverse underperformance in 2025, when the Topix Transportation Equipment Index rose only 8%, trailing the broader Topix Index’s 22% gain. Hiroshi Matsumoto of Pictet Asset Management points out that some Japanese automakers still lack robust U.S. production infrastructure, limiting their competitiveness under current trade barriers.

Tech and Electronics: High Exposure to Policy Volatility

Tech supply chains are acutely sensitive to tariff changes. Chinese suppliers to Tesla and Korean manufacturers of batteries and components are directly affected by U.S. tariff dynamics. Apple’s strategic shift to expand iPhone production in India is partly a response to such risks, aiming to reduce dependence on China.

Jung In Yun of Fibonacci Asset Management argues that easing tariff pressure could support U.S. consumer demand and enhance cost-pass-through capabilities for Asian tech exporters. Should markets hesitate or correct post-ruling, he believes this may offer a tactical buying opportunity.

Apparel, Medical, and Pharmaceuticals: Indirect and Asymmetric Effects

The initial round of tariffs prompted many apparel and footwear firms to relocate production from China to countries like Vietnam and India. However, as tariff coverage widened, even these alternative locations came under pressure. Hironori Akizawa of Tokio Marine notes that Indian textile exporters with high U.S. exposure may benefit if duties are lifted, though it is uncertain whether this would produce sustained industry recovery.

On the flip side, Malaysian glove makers who gained market share when Chinese products were taxed may now face headwinds. In the pharmaceutical sector, tariffs were ultimately waived in 2025, minimizing direct impacts. Still, firms in Korea and India that rely heavily on U.S. markets must remain alert to potential future shifts.

Medical device manufacturers in China could regain competitiveness if duties are dropped, while the furniture industry remains vulnerable, with many Asian firms generating significant revenue from North America.

The Supreme Court’s tariff ruling, regardless of direction, will have profound implications for Asia. A decision against the tariffs may temporarily support exporters, reduce friction in global trade, and strengthen investor sentiment. Yet the broader issue ongoing trade weaponization through legal loopholes means uncertainty will persist. For Asia, especially its most export-reliant economies, the challenge lies not only in absorbing policy shocks but also in building long-term resilience amid shifting geopolitical alignments and regulatory frameworks.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites