How AI shook the world in 2025 and what comes next

Economic

Summary:

In 2025, AI reshaped economies, politics, and daily life, driving massive investment and job disruption while raising mental-health and regulation concerns, with 2026 set to accelerate both benefits and risks.

Hundreds of billions of dollars spent, a surge in mental health concerns and thousands of jobs lost.

The link between it all? Artificial intelligence, the buzzy yet controversial technology being depicted as the future or the stock market’s next bubble, depending on who you ask.

Although AI has been a key technology behind the scenes for decades, the arrival of OpenAI’s ChatGPT in 2022 pushed the tech to the frontlines. The rise of AI chatbots like ChatGPT and Google’s Gemini has gradually influenced online services used by millions every day, from Google search’s AI Mode to the AI chatbots built into Instagram and Amazon. In other words, AI is starting to reshape the front door to the internet.

But 2025 was also the year AI expanded beyond our screens and began impacting national policy, global trade relations and the stock market. It also raised important questions about whether the tech should be trusted in our jobs, classrooms and relationships.

That’s expected to continue in 2026.

“In previous years, (AI) was a shiny new object… And I think this last year was a lot more serious uses of the technology,” said James Landay, co-founder and co-director of the Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence. “And I think people are waking up to actually understanding both some of the benefits and the risks.”

Regulation questions and mental health concerns

Count President Donald Trump among AI’s biggest believers; the technology has been a cornerstone of his second term so far.

For example, the CEO of chipmaker Nvidia, the posterchild of the AI boom, has become a fixture of Trump’s inner circle. And the president has used Nvidia’s and AMD’s AI processors as bargaining chips in the ongoing trade war with China.

This year, Trump introduced an AI action plan aimed at stripping back regulation and boosting AI use in the government.

He also signed multiple AI-related executive orders, including a controversial one seeking to block states from enforcing their own AI rules. The move was seen as a win for Silicon Valley, but online safety advocates fear it’ll enable tech companies to evade accountability for AI-related risks. Next year will likely see a legal fight over the order and states’ abilities to regulate AI — with some critics arguing it won’t hold up in court.

The absence of broad AI guardrails has been in the national spotlight this year and not for good reason. A slew of reports and lawsuits this year have alleged that AI companions like ChatGPT and Character.AI have contributed to mental health episodes and, in some cases, suicide among teens.

“Please don’t leave the noose out … Let’s make this space the first place where someone actually sees you.” That’s how ChatGPT is said to have responded when 16-year-old Adam Raine wrote that he wanted to leave a noose out in his room so that someone would find it and stop him before he committed suicide.

Raine’s parents sued OpenAI in August alleging that the popular chatbot advised the teen on his suicide.

OpenAI and Character.AI have since announced parental controls and other changes to improve teen safety, including removing the ability for teens to have back-and-forth conversations with chatbots on Character.AI’s app. Meta also plans to let parents block their children from chatting with AI characters on Instagram next year.

But it’s not just teens; a growing number of reports have indicated that AI has contributed to isolation from loved ones and breaks from reality among adults, too. One man told CNN that ChatGPT convinced him he was making technological breakthroughs that turned out to be a delusion.

OpenAI said it has worked with clinical mental health experts to enable ChatGPT to “better recognize and support people in moments of distress,” including by expanding access to crisis hotlines, pointing users towards professional help when needed and adding reminders to take breaks. Still, OpenAI has said it ultimately wants to “treat adult users like adults,” allowing them to personalize their chats and even discuss erotica with ChatGPT.

Psychiatrist and lawyer Marlynn Wei told CNN that she expects AI chatbots “will increasingly become the first place people turn for emotional support,” further underscoring safety concerns. Young users are among the most likely to turn to AI for support, she said.

“The limitations of general-purpose chatbots, including hallucinations, sycophancy, lack of confidentiality, lack of clinical judgment, and lack of reality testing, along with broader ethical and privacy concerns, will continue to create mental health risks,” she said via email.

Mental health experts and safety advocates say they hope to see greater guardrails from tech companies, especially when it comes to young AI users. But they worry the fight over regulatory power between the states and the federal government will impact the implementation of such mandated safety measures.

The bubble question

At the same time, huge investments are being poured into data centers and AI infrastructure. Meta, Microsoft and Amazon, among others, have spent tens of billions in capital expenditures this year alone, and McKinsey & Company expects companies to invest nearly $7 trillion in data center infrastructure globally by 2030.

That surge in spending has sparked concerns both for consumers and for Wall Street. Some Americans have watched their electricity bills climb and job prospects sink due to AI, while some companies behind the AI boom have seen their stock reach new heights.

The massive investments have also fueled worries that the hype and spending in AI is growing faster than the tech’s true value. That’s prompted investors to grill executives at Meta and Microsoft about future returns on their AI infrastructure investments during earnings calls this year. It doesn’t help that a relatively small group of companies have seemingly driven the investments, trading money and technology back and forth.

Christina Melas-Kyriazi, partner at Bain Capital Ventures, said it’s common for new transformative technologies to be “overbuilt.” The big question heading into 2026 is whether investors are prepared for the volatility that comes with it, especially since she says a market correction is “likely at some point.”

But they’ll likely have more data at their disposal to help make those decisions, said Erik Brynjolfsson, a senior fellow for the Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI and director of the Stanford Digital Economy Lab. He said more dashboards will likely emerge in 2026 to track how AI is impacting productivity and jobs.

“The debate will shift from whether AI matters to how quickly its effects are diffusing, who is being left behind, and which complementary investments best turn AI capability into broad-based prosperity,” he said.

This year, thousands of tech workers were left jobless as a wave of layoffs swept the industry. Microsoft, Amazon and Meta, among other tech companies, made significant cuts to their staff, driven at least in part by AI.

Amazon laid off 14,000 corporate employees in October in an effort to operate more leanly in the age of AI. Meta let 600 workers go from its AI division, following an earlier hiring spree, so that it, too, could be more nimble.

Some believe AI will lead to more layoffs, while others say it’ll create fresh opportunities.

But one thing is certain: More change is coming.

“This was the year that we saw skill demands totally change when it comes to what is required to be able to pull off your job,” said Dan Roth, editor-in-chief of LinkedIn.

“…And I think the answer for next year is it just accelerates.”

Source: cnn

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Devin

Stocks

The S&P 500 Index opened little changed, with tech megacaps mixed. Tuesday's volume is likely to stay thin; Monday's volume had trailed the 20-day average by nearly 40%.

The Nasdaq 100 Index and Bloomberg's Magnificent Seven Index were also flat at 9:38 a.m. in New York. Energy and communications led S&P 500 sectors in the green, while consumer discretionary, materials and financials led declining sectors.

"Over the last several weeks, markets have pressed higher with quiet confidence despite the holiday-shortened trading session," Piper Sandler & Co.'s Chief Market Technician Craig Johnson wrote in a note, adding that "breadth continues to improve, trend indicators remain constructive, and volatility has broken key support."

In corporate news, Tesla Inc. slipped 0.8% after publishing a compilation of analyst estimates for vehicle deliveries in the current quarter that was more pessimistic than those gathered by Bloomberg. Meta Platforms Inc. climbed 1% after agreeing to buy Manus, a Singapore-based artificial intelligence agent with Chinese roots in a deal said to be worth more than $2 billion.

Investors seeking cutting-edge ways to play the AI trade are snapping up "pick-and-shovel" stocks. Data storage companies dominated the S&P 500 this year, with Sandisk Corp. the best performer after an almost 580% gain. The stock was little changed in Tuesday trading.

Mining stocks climbed as silver and gold recovered somewhat after plunging on Monday, with Newmont Corp. rising 0.65%. Molina Healthcare Inc. rallied 3.7% after famed investor Michael Burry reiterated his bullish view on the stock. Meanwhile, Boeing Co. advanced 1.60% after winning an up-to $8.58 billion US contract for Israel's F-15 program.

October housing data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency and from S&P Cotality Case-Shiller both showed slightly higher-than-estimated price increases, while the Federal Reserve is due to release minutes from its latest meeting this afternoon.

"As we look to 2026, the global economy continues to show impressive resilience," Citigroup Inc.'s global chief economist Nathan Sheets wrote in a note, adding that "we expect global growth to continue on a similar track through the next two years." He anticipates "pressures from the tariffs will take a further bite out of growth next year, but the overall effects look manageable."

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Justin

Forex

Political

Economic

Wars -- both of the military and trade varieties -- elections, natural disasters, corruption scandals, the mushrooming scam center crisis, social unrest and a mixed bag of economic growth.

These are just some of the themes that dominated the news in Southeast Asia in 2025.

Long stretches of the Thai-Cambodian border have been disputed for more than a century. The neighbors' clashes over it this year, in July and again in December, have shown how precarious relations are and the nationalist forces at work in both countries.

The other regional conflict, Myanmar's almost five-year civil war, shows no sign of ending, but the regime has still decided to hold a general election over the next few weeks. Opposition groups, ASEAN and many Western states are against it.

Myanmar and Cambodia also made headlines for their numerous scam centers and the efforts, of varying legitimacy, to shut them down. These hotbeds of organized crime appear likely to stay for years to come.

Meanwhile, the region's economic news was dominated by having to adjust to U.S. President Donald Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs, which brought angst and uncertainty across the region.

In spite of this, Vietnam's economy continued to power ahead, in sharp contrast to some of its peers, particularly Thailand.

Political upheaval also rocked Thailand, where elections in February are unlikely to bring stability; the Philippines, where the families of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte battled in midterm polls and then clashed over misappropriated flood-control funds; and Indonesia, where several days of deadly street protests highlighted how President Prabowo Subianto's first year in office has been rough going.

Prabowo's nationalism also came to the fore in his response to floods and landslides that killed more than 1,100 people. He rejected foreign aid, much to the anger of many victims of the natural disaster.

And in a spot of good news, East Timor, completed its yearslong odyssey to join ASEAN.

Our most popular stories from Southeast Asia in 2025 included:

· Thailand celebrates first LGBTQ weddings in Southeast Asia

· Philippines' Duterte arrested on ICC warrant: 5 things to know

· Singapore family office of rich Chinese hit by $55m fraud scandal

· 'It's tragic': Myanmar quake survivors describe slow pace of relief

· Philippine elections deliver surprise backing for ex-President Duterte

· Boycott-hit US brands in Malaysia and Indonesia scramble to reverse losses

· Indonesian markets, government rattled after deadly Jakarta protest

· War movie made by Vietnam's military a box office blockbuster

· Cambodian military families mourn as nation's Thai conflict toll exceeds 50

· Vietnam's new airline aims to make local island as popular as Bali, Phuket

· Malaysian PM Anwar faces critical test in Sabah state election

· In Indonesia's Aceh, slow flood aid spurs comparisons with 2004 tsunami

Source: Asia_Nikkei

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James Whitman

Political

● Leadership acknowledges protests stem from economic pressure, promises monetary reforms

● Iranian rial hits record low under Western sanctions impact

● Previous protests drew violent crackdowns, widespread arrests

Protests over Iran's soaring cost of living spread to several universities on Tuesday, with students joining shopkeepers and bazaar merchants, semi-official media reported, as the government offered dialogue with demonstrators.

Iran's rial currency has lost nearly half its value against the dollar in 2025, with inflation reaching 42.5% in December in a country where unrest has repeatedly flared in recent years and which is facing U.S. sanctions and threats of Israeli strikes.

President Masoud Pezeshkian said in a social media post late on Monday that he had asked the interior minister to listen to "legitimate demands" of protesters. Government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani said a dialogue mechanism would be set up and include talks with protest leaders.

"We officially recognise the protests ... We hear their voices and we know that this originates from natural pressure arising from the pressure on people's livelihoods," she said on Tuesday in comments carried by state media.

PROTESTERS MARCH STREETS IN TEHRAN

Video of protests, verified by Reuters as taking place in Tehran, showed scores of people marching along a street chanting "Rest in peace Reza Shah", a reference to the founder of the royal dynasty ousted in the 1979 Islamic revolution.

Footage aired on Iranian state television on Monday showed people gathered in central Tehran chanting slogans.

The semi-official Fars News Agency reported that hundreds of students held protests on Tuesday at four universities in Tehran.

On social media, some Iranians voiced support for the protests with one, Soroosh Dadkhah, saying high prices and corruption had led people "to the point of explosion" and another, Masoud Ghasemi, warning of protests spreading across the country.

Iranian authorities have quashed previous bouts of unrest that have flared over issues ranging from the economy to drought, women's rights and political freedoms, with violent security actions and widespread arrests.

The government has not said what form dialogue will take with the leaders of this week's demonstrations, the first major protests since Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran in June, which prompted widespread expressions of patriotic solidarity.

SANCTIONS HAMMER ECONOMY

Iran's economy has been in deep trouble for years after U.S. sanctions were reimposed in 2018 when U.S. President Donald Trump ended an international deal over the country's nuclear programme during his first term in office.

United Nations sanctions on the country were reimposed in September and Reuters reported in October that several high-level meetings had been held on how to avert economic collapse, circumvent sanctions and manage public anger.

Economic disparities between ordinary Iranians and the clerical and security elite, along with economic mismanagement and state corruption - reported even by state media - have fanned discontent at a time when inflation is pushing many prices beyond the means of most people.

The currency slid to 1.4 million rials to the U.S. dollar on Tuesday according to private exchange platforms, a record low after starting the year at 817,500 rials to the dollar.

Monthly annualised inflation figures have not dropped below 36.4% since the Iranian new year started in late March according to official figures.

On Monday the central bank chief resigned with Iranian media saying the government's recent economic liberalisation policies had put pressure on the open-rate rial market, where ordinary Iranians buy foreign currency. Most businesses use official currency exchanges where the rial price is supported.

In 2022, Iran was buffeted by protests across the country over price hikes, including for bread, a major staple.

Over the same period and into 2023, the country's clerical rulers faced the boldest unrest in years touched off by the death of a young Iranian Kurdish woman, Mahsa Amini, in the custody of the morality police, who enforce strict dress codes.

Iran remains under intense international pressure, with Trump saying on Monday that he might back another round of Israeli airstrikes if Tehran resumed work on ballistic missiles or any nuclear weapons programme.

The U.S. and Israel carried out 12 days of airstrikes on Iran's military and its nuclear installations in June aimed at stopping what they believe were efforts to develop the means to build an atomic weapon.

Iran says its nuclear energy programme is entirely peaceful and that it has not tried to build a nuclear bomb.

Source: Reuters

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Adam

Commodity

Copper is on track for its biggest annual price rise in more than a decade, driven by supply disruptions, a weakening U.S. dollar, improving expectations for Chinese economic growth — and blockbuster spending on artificial intelligence.

Analysts say the red metal's rally could continue next year, particularly amid supply fears and a rapidly expanding global data center footprint.

Three-month copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) traded up 1.5% at $12,405 per metric ton on Tuesday, paring recent gains after notching a record high of $12,960 in the previous session.

The benchmark contract, which is up around 41% this year, is on pace for its best year since 2009, when it gained over 140% as countries emerged from the global financial crisis.

In New York, copper prices have soared more than 40% since the start of 2025, also putting it on track for its biggest annual jump since 2009, when the contract rose 137.3%.

Demand for copper is widely considered a proxy for economic health. The base metal is critically important to the energy transition ecosystem and is integral to the manufacturing of electric vehicles, power grids, and wind turbines.

Indeed, electrification, grid expansion, and data-center buildouts all require large amounts of copper for wiring, power transmission, and cooling infrastructure.

Ian Roper, commodity strategist at Astris Advisory Japan KK, singled out a global boom in AI demand as the latest driver for copper prices, with "very tight" markets likely to mean the red metal could rally even further next year.

"The story for copper of the last few years has been green energy, right? Even though China has had a huge property downturn [and] that's hit things like steel demand, iron ore prices, it's not really affected copper so much," Roper told CNBC's Dan Murphy on Dec. 23.

"Copper has been a big beneficiary of the buildout of renewable energy, EVs, and now, of course, data centers is the big growth story," he added.

AI and defense

Analysts at JPMorgan said in a research note published in late November that LME copper prices could have further room to run next year, predicting an average of $12,500 per metric ton in the second quarter.

The Wall Street bank said it expects copper to average $12,075 through 2026, citing data center demand growth as an "extremely topical" upside risk.

"All in all, we think these unique dynamics of disjointed inventory and acute supply disruptions tightening the copper market add up to a bullish set up for copper, and are enough to push prices above $12,000/mt in the first half of 2026," Gregory Shearer, head of base and precious metals strategy at JPMorgan, said in the note.

Not everyone is as bullish on the copper price outlook, however.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs Research expect copper prices to decline from their recent record highs, even as growing demand for the metal gradually pushes up prices in the longer term.

In a research note published on Dec. 11, analysts at Goldman Sachs Research said LME copper prices were poised to remain in a range of $10,000 to $11,000 as robust global demand growth from the grid and power infrastructure sector, "backed by investment in strategic sectors such as AI and defence," keeps prices from dipping below $10,000.

The analysts said they expect LME copper prices to average $10,710 in the first half of 2026. Looking much further ahead, they projected LME copper prices to climb to $15,000 in 2035, noting that this is above the consensus of industry analysts.

Source: cnbc

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Adam

Economic

When 2025 began, the average US tariff rate stood near 2.5%. That same rate now stands north of 15% after just less than a year of President Trump's second term in office.

And as the calendar flips to 2026, analysts see only limited opportunities for deescalation in the year ahead.

Trump's last major tariff move of the year came in November, when he removed tariffs on goods like coffee and cocoa, but elsewhere the president seems as intent as ever on keeping rates at current levels.

The latest calculations from the Tax Foundation find that the average applied US tariff rate is 15.8%; the Yale Budget Lab calculates an overall average effective tariff rate for consumers of 16.8%.

Both outlets note these levels mark the highest rates in at least 80 years.

Meanwhile, a Yahoo Finance review of tariff projections for 2026 saw 15% crop up again and again as a general rule of thumb when planning for tariffs in the coming year.

In other words: not a major change.

As Bloomberg Economics put it in a recent note, the global economy will now have to learn to live with American protectionism.

'You can see the end point'

In an interview that aired during the last weekend of the year on CBS News' Face the Nation, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said his team had concluded that on tariffs, things are "starting to deescalate" and that overall rates for companies that "drive more towards America ... will come down to 15%."

He quickly added that there could be major exceptions, but for many around the globe, "You can sort of see the end point here."

That 15% number was echoed in other analyses and is seen as likely to hold even with the Supreme Court currently weighing the legality of many of Trump's tariffs.

A negative ruling for Trump from the high court could be far-reaching and even require tariff refunds, but few expect it to permanently knock the White House away from its tariff focus.

As JPMorgan noted in an analysis in early December, even an adverse ruling in the Supreme Court could result in rates holding near current levels, with the administration possibly opting to "invoke Section 122 to maintain 15% tariffs for 150 days, using that period of time to work out more lasting alternatives."

Economists at Bloomberg Economics added that the Supreme Court is likely to strike down some of Trump's tariff authority, but "our base case is that these tariffs will be swiftly replaced," they wrote in a research note, adding that it is likely that tariff rates "will largely hold where they are now."

Other factors are fueling some predictions for moderate downward pressure on tariff rates in 2026, mostly around a coming election year in the US, which is expected to see Trump and Republicans under continued pressure around Americans' affordability concerns.

Yet Trump himself is signaling little appetite for major changes in his plans, posting to Truth Social Saturday that "Tariffs are creating GREAT WEALTH, and unprecedented National Security for the USA."

And as Trade Representative Jamieson Greer put it in an op-ed this past week, "2025 will be remembered as the year of the tariff." From his view, "the plan is working."

As of November, the total revenue collected for 2025 from tariffs is $236.16 billion, with revenue dipping slightly in November after the White House released its executive order that excluded items such as coffee, tea, beef, bananas, tropical fruit, and cocoa from tariffs.

2026 as the 'year of the tariff consequences'

What likely won't be available to businesses in 2026, however, will be opportunities get ahead of tariffs, either by stockpiling imports or shifting the location of some production to avoid a one-time price shock for customers.

In a recent report, Deloitte US suggested tariff rates will move "to 15% by the first quarter of 2026," but also added that "importers who built up their inventories ahead of tariffs will ultimately need to replenish those goods at tariffed rates, as domestic production has not fundamentally changed."

As longtime shipping observer John McCown, a non-resident senior fellow at the Center for Maritime Strategy, added in a LinkedIn post, "I believe 2026 will be the year of the tariff consequences."

Indeed, even with moderate deescalation possible on some goods in 2026, no notable year-end analysis foresees any sort of massive shift in Trump's tariff program.

As Terry Haines, the founder of Pangaea Policy, noted, "tariffs are here to stay."

Haines added that for investors, this might end up being a good thing because of the clarity for markets that this tactic will be the "main tool of Trump geopolitics [and] economic policy" in the coming three years.

"It increases economic policy certainty," Haines wrote, with consequences that can be managed later.

Source: finance.yahoo

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Adam

Commodity

Silver’s exceptional volatility in recent days has captured the zeitgeist — with even the likes of Elon Musk drawing attention to the metal’s ferocious rally to all-time highs.

The metal rose to a record above $84 an ounce early Monday, before promptly crashing close to $70 in thin, post-holiday trading. It was one of silver’s largest price reversals ever.

Prices remain up more than 150% this year. Now the big question is: where does silver go from here?

Here are key charts to watch in the silver market to evaluate what happens next.

Chinese Buying

Surging investor interest in China has been a key driver of silver prices in recent days. Speculators piled into the precious metal, mirroring a similar dynamic playing out in platinum. Elevated buying in the Shanghai Gold Exchange’s silver contract in December has pushed premiums to a record high, dragging other international benchmarks along.

Here’s What to Watch for Silver’s Next Move After Wild Ride Past $80_1

The blistering rally provoked the country’s only pure-play silver fund to turn away new customers last week, after repeated risk warnings went unheeded. The fund’s manager announced the unusual step Friday after multiple actions — from tighter trading rules to cautionary advice about “unsustainable” gains — failed to quell an eruption of interest fueled by social media.

ETF Inflows

Holdings in physical-backed silver exchange-traded funds have surged this year, rising by more than 150 million ounces. The total amount of metal held by the funds is still below a peak set during a Reddit-driven retail investment surge in 2021, but the inflows have been instrumental in eroding available supplies in an already tight market. Holdings in the funds have risen every month but one this year, according to Bloomberg calculations.

Here’s What to Watch for Silver’s Next Move After Wild Ride Past $80_2

Technical Indicators, Margins

Silver prices jumped more than 25% in December alone, on track for the biggest monthly increase since 2020. The speed of the gains meant some technical indicators were signaling that prices had run too far, too quickly. The metal’s relative strength index — a gauge of buying and selling momentum — has stayed above 70 for most of the past few weeks. A reading higher than 70 usually indicates that too many investors bought silver in a short period.

Here’s What to Watch for Silver’s Next Move After Wild Ride Past $80_3

Some exchanges are moving to rein in risk amid heightened volatility. The margins for some Comex silver futures contracts will be raised from Monday, according to a statement from CME Group Inc. That’s adding to headwinds since traders will need to put up more cash to keep their positions open. Some speculators won’t want to do that and will be forced to shrink or close their trades instead.

Explainer: Why Silver Has Been Surging Even More Than Gold

Options Frenzy

One indication of speculative fervor has been the level of buying for call options, both on silver futures and related ETFs. Call options, which give the buyer the ability to buy a security at a pre-determined price level, are typically seen as a cheap way to bet on market upside.

For iShares Silver Trust (SLV), the largest silver ETF, total call volume hit the highest since 2021 last week. The cost of buying calls on silver futures relative to the cost of buying equivalent puts, which protect against price declines, also jumped to historical highs in December.

Here’s What to Watch for Silver’s Next Move After Wild Ride Past $80_4

Borrowing Costs

Thanks to a tariff-related trade, much of the world’s available silver still remains in New York warehouses. Meanwhile, the market is awaiting the outcome of a US Section 232 probe into critical minerals, which could lead to levies or other trade restrictions on the metal.

The surge of metal into the US pushed the London market into a full blown squeeze in October, and borrowing costs there still remain well above their normals levels of close to zero. That helped set the stage for increased volatility and frequent price spikes.

Here’s What to Watch for Silver’s Next Move After Wild Ride Past $80_5

Catching Up With Gold

Precious metals generally have seen a surge in investment demand this year, supported by a sagging US dollar, President Donald Trump’s aggressive moves to remake global trade and threats to the Federal Reserve’s independence.

Gold was the first to rally, benefiting additionally from strong buying by global central banks. Some market watchers hold as a rule of thumb that when gold makes a decisive move, silver will eventually move twice as far in the same direction — this year, of course, they would have been right.

Many investors also track the ratio between the two commodities. After gold’s initial surge in the early months of this year, that ratio stretched above 100 to 1, signaling to some that it was time to buy the white metal. But in recent weeks, the ratio has rapidly shifted lower.