Gold (XAUUSD) Weekly Forecast: Uptrend Remains Intact

Forex

Commodity

Summary:

Gold (XAUUSD) remains in a stable consolidation zone around $4230 per ounce, near October highs.

Gold (XAUUSD) remains in a stable consolidation zone around $4230 per ounce, near October highs. Support for prices comes from dovish signals from the Fed following the December rate cut, improved forecasts for U.S. economic growth, and lower inflation expectations for 2025–2026. Additional demand for gold arises from ongoing geopolitical risks, including the interception of a sanctioned tanker off the coast of Venezuela and continued uncertainty surrounding key conflict negotiations.

This report examines the key factors expected to drive gold prices during 15–19 December 2025, with a focus on market reactions to the Fed meeting, expectations for the 2026 rate path, and the technical structure within the 4150–4250 range where XAUUSD has been consolidating since the September–October rally.

XAUUSD forecast for this week: quick overview

· Weekly performance: Gold (XAUUSD) ends the week higher at $4230 per ounce, near October levels. Support came from the anticipated Fed rate cut and Powell's comments confirming no plans for tightening. An additional factor was rising demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainty.

· Support and resistance: Gold is trading within a broad upward channel of 3883–4378. The nearest support lies in the 4150–4165 zone, with key support at 3883. Resistance is concentrated at 4250 (upper boundary of the current consolidation) and 4378 (local high from late October).

· Fundamentals: The Fed maintained a moderately dovish tone, signaling possible further rate cuts. This boosted interest in gold. The central bank improved its U.S. growth outlook and lowered inflation expectations, while geopolitical events increased the appeal of safe-haven assets. Official central bank demand also continues to support prices.

· Outlook: The base case is continued consolidation within 4150–4250 as markets await new drivers. A breakout above 4250 would open the way for a test of the all-time high at 4378. A drop below 4150 would raise the risk of a deeper correction toward 4050 and then 3883. The medium-term structure remains bullish.

Gold (XAUUSD) fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) prices closed the week higher at $4230 per ounce, close to October levels when a record high was reached. This time, the driver was the expected Fed rate cut following the FOMC meeting.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the central bank is considering three policy paths: a slower pace of cuts, moderate reductions, or more aggressive steps. A rate hike is not on the table.

The Fed also maintained its forecast for one rate cut in 2026 but emphasized increased uncertainty around the timing and scale of future decisions.

In addition, the Fed raised its U.S. economic growth forecast and lowered inflation expectations for 2025–2026.

Geopolitical developments further supported gold. These include the U.S. interception of a sanctioned tanker off Venezuela's coast and continued uncertainty in global conflict negotiations — both of which are increasing safe-haven demand.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, Gold (XAUUSD) maintains a strong uptrend that began after breaking through the key 3883 area. Gold remains above the Bollinger midline, confirming bullish dominance and momentum. The upper band is widening, reflecting increased volatility. However, over the past weeks, price has been consolidating within the 4150–4250 range, entering a sideways phase.

MACD remains in positive territory, but the histogram shows a noticeable decline in amplitude, indicating weakening momentum after October's surge. The MACD lines are converging, often a precursor to consolidation or a deeper correction.

Stochastic, after exiting overbought territory, is now turning higher following a pullback, suggesting an attempt to resume the rally, though without a clear reversal signal yet.

The nearest resistance lies around 4378 — the local high from late October. A breakout above this level would open the path to new all-time highs. Support is at 3883, and a loss of this area would signal a deeper correction toward the lower Bollinger Band.

Overall, the structure remains bullish, but the market has entered a consolidation phase awaiting new drivers for trend continuation.

XAUUSD trading scenarios

The fundamental backdrop for gold remains positive. Gold (XAUUSD) ends the week near $4230 per ounce — close to October highs. The market was supported by dovish Fed signals: Powell confirmed that only rate cut scenarios are being discussed, with no hikes in sight. Growth forecasts were upgraded and inflation expectations lowered.

Additional demand for gold comes from geopolitical risks, such as the U.S. tanker interception and uncertainty over negotiations. Technically, gold is consolidating within the 4150–4250 range, maintaining a medium-term uptrend.

Buy scenario

Longs are appropriate if price holds above 4150–4165.

A breakout above 4240–4250 would open the way to a retest of 4378 and potential new all-time highs.

Support for bulls comes from dovish Fed commentary and strong safe-haven demand.

· Sell scenario

Shorts may be considered if price breaks below 4150.

Targets: 4050 — key support at 3883.

Selling pressure would increase with a strengthening U.S. dollar and rising bond yields.

Conclusion

The base scenario is continued consolidation in the 4150–4250 range while awaiting new catalysts.

A breakout above 4250 would strengthen bullish momentum, while a drop below 4150 would signal a deeper correction.

The medium-term trend remains bullish.

Summary

Gold (XAUUSD) ends the week at $4230 per ounce, in a phase of stable consolidation following the autumn rally. The market is pricing in the expected Fed rate cut: the likelihood of a 25 bps move in December is nearing 90%, and Jerome Powell's statements have reinforced expectations of a dovish policy path in 2026.

Gold is also supported by geopolitical risks.

The technical picture remains neutral-to-bullish. XAUUSD continues to trade within the 4150–4250 range, above key support at 3883.

The nearest resistance is at 4240–4250: a breakout above this area would open the way to a retest of the all-time high at 4378.

A break below 4150 would raise the risk of a deeper correction toward the 4050–3883 area.

The medium-term trend remains bullish.

EURUSD 2026-2027 forecast: key market trends and future predictions

This article provides the EURUSD forecast for 2026 and 2027 and highlights the main factors determining the direction of the pair's movements. We will apply technical analysis, take into account the opinions of leading experts, large banks, and financial institutions, and study AI-based forecasts. This comprehensive insight into EURUSD predictions should help investors and traders make informed decisions.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026 and beyond: expert insights, price predictions, and analysis

Dive deep into the Gold (XAUUSD) price outlook for 2026 and beyond, combining technical analysis, expert forecasts, and key macroeconomic factors. It explains the drivers behind gold's recent surge, explores potential scenarios including a move toward 4,500 to 5,000 USD per ounce, and highlights why the metal remains a strong hedge during global uncertainty.

Source: RoboForex

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James Whitman

Cryptocurrency

The UK Treasury is drafting rules to bring crypto under the FCA supervision, starting in 2027. Digital assets will be regulated similar to other financial products under the legislation, the finance ministry said in a statement.

that Britain is moving to formally regulate crypto from October 2027.

The move would provide "clear rules of the road" and keep "dodgy actors" out of the market, said Chancellor Rachel Reeves. She added that the rules will hand "strong consumer protections."

"Bringing crypto into the regulatory perimeter is a crucial step in securing the UK's position as a world-leading financial centre in the digital age," the Chancellor noted.

The European Union introduced a similar legislation (MiCA) one year ago, while the US is progressing with its own set of rules for crypto regulation.

Britain seeks to collaborate with the US to foster crypto regulation and innovation through the "". The UK will introduce a draft bill into Parliament later today.Crypto Regulation Under FCA Supervision

The new set of rules would place crypto firms, including exchanges and digital wallets, under the purview of the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).

This means the crypto services are regulated in the same way as other financial products, including by being subject to transparency standards, .

Lucy Rigby, the minister for the City of London, said that these new rules "will give firms the clarity and consistency they need to plan for the long term."

Besides, recent data from the financial regulator shows around 12% of UK adults hold some form of cryptocurrency, a figure that has risen steadily in recent years.

As a result, the UK formally recognized Bitcoin and crypto assets as legal property under a new Act of Parliament. Under the law, digital assets can be owned, inherited, and recovered.Regulator, Bank to Finalize Own Rules by End 2026

Separately, the UK FCA is planning rules for trading and market abuse, custody and issuance. Additionally, the Bank of England last month unveiled its proposals for regulating stablecoins.

Both the BoE and the FCA have promised to finalize their rules by end-2026, the Reuters report added.

The crypto regulatory rulebook plans come at a time when crypto has suffered from market turbulence and several digital asset scams recently.

The amount of money lost to investment scams by UK crypto consumers has leapt 55% in a year, per .

Separately, ministers are also drawing up plans to ban crypto political donations, raising red flags about their unverifiable origin and ownership.

Source: TradingView

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Economic

France Raises Last-Minute Objections to Mercosur Agreement

As the European Union prepares for a key summit on December 20, French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu has formally requested a delay in the vote on the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement, citing insufficient safeguards for European farmers and consumers. While the European Commission has proposed some protective measures, France contends that they remain incomplete and untested, and that additional proposals are required to establish a level playing field for EU producers.

Lecornu emphasized that the conditions necessary for signing the agreement have “not been met,” and that implementation must be “operative, robust and effective” to ensure fairness in market access and compliance with EU standards.

The Trade Pact: Opportunity Meets Opposition

The EU-Mercosur accord, involving Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay, aims to integrate a market of 780 million consumers, linking the EU’s manufacturing strength with South America’s agricultural abundance. From an economic standpoint, the deal offers mutual diversification:

The EU seeks to revitalize its industrial sector, especially amid global trade tensions and the fallout of protectionist U.S. policies under President Donald Trump.

Mercosur countries aim to boost agricultural exports and secure greater access to European markets.

Additionally, the deal has geostrategic implications, with the EU looking to counterbalance China’s growing influence in South America, where Beijing has become a dominant commodities buyer and industrial partner.

Agricultural Tensions Remain a Sticking Point

Despite its economic promise, the agreement has long drawn criticism from France, Poland, and several other EU countries. Their concern centers on cheap agricultural imports from Latin America, which are often produced under lower environmental and safety standards. European farmers fear these imports would undercut them on price, eroding domestic agricultural competitiveness and compromising EU food safety standards.

The European Commission has promised extra safety checks and safeguards, but the European Parliament has not yet ratified these provisions, fueling skepticism about their enforceability and political durability.

Deadline Pressure and Risk of Collapse

The urgency stems from the fact that the deal has been under negotiation for 25 years, and failure to secure an agreement by year-end could collapse the entire process, according to sources familiar with internal EU discussions. A further delay potentially into early 2026 may reopen political divisions or allow protectionist forces to solidify opposition.

France's stance underscores the broader intra-EU divide between economic liberalization and agricultural protectionism. While the EU aims to expand its global trade footprint, especially in light of geopolitical realignments, member states like France remain unwilling to compromise domestic agricultural interests. Whether the EU can bridge these internal rifts without sacrificing strategic objectives will determine the fate of the Mercosur deal and perhaps set a precedent for future trade negotiations.

Source: Reuters

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Economic

Cryptocurrency

Regulatory Framework to Launch in 2027

The UK finance ministry has announced that a new legal framework to regulate cryptoassets will come into effect in October 2027. This regulatory shift is part of a broader effort to provide legal clarity and reduce market misconduct. The upcoming legislation, to be introduced into Parliament on the same day as the announcement, will integrate crypto firms into the UK's existing financial regulatory regime. This move marks a strategic alignment with the United States' regulatory trajectory, contrasting with the EU’s industry-specific MiCA (Markets in Cryptoassets) rules implemented in 2024.

Finance Minister Rachel Reeves emphasized that the goal is to create “clear rules of the road,” bolster consumer protections, and keep out “dodgy actors” from the digital asset space. The new rules aim to foster industry development while mitigating systemic risk. This aligns with the UK’s broader digital economy ambitions under the current government.

Transatlantic Collaboration and Market Response

A transatlantic taskforce is being established to synchronize U.S.-UK digital asset policy approaches. This cooperation responds to U.S. President Donald Trump's pro-crypto stance, which has contributed to rising global interest in digital assets despite recent volatility in Bitcoin, which has sharply dropped after reaching record highs earlier in 2025.

Market participants have welcomed the clarity. Daniel Slutzkin, UK head at Gemini, said firms had “long awaited regulatory clarity” and could now begin preparing for compliance. However, Natalie Lewis, a partner at Travers Smith, expressed concerns that the original draft legislation contained multiple unresolved legal issues and hoped for more substantial changes in the final version.

Scope of Regulation and Institutional Readiness

The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and Bank of England (BoE) are developing detailed frameworks, covering key areas such as:

Trading practices and market abuse

Custody and issuance

Stablecoin regulation (particularly for everyday payments)

Both regulators plan to finalize their crypto rules by the end of 2026, providing a full year for market participants to adjust ahead of the October 2027 deadline. Meanwhile, public warnings from the BoE and FCA about the speculative risks of cryptocurrencies persist, with reminders that investors should be prepared to lose all of their money.

The UK’s crypto regulatory regime represents a balancing act between promoting innovation and protecting consumers. By aligning with U.S. frameworks and diverging from the EU's approach, the UK is signaling its intent to be a competitive, yet cautious, global crypto hub. The timeline through 2027 gives both regulators and businesses room to adapt, although legal experts remain watchful of how thoroughly the upcoming law addresses technical gaps.

Source: Reuters

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Economic

South Korea Leads Regional Declines Amid Global Caution

Asian equities opened the week under pressure, mirroring Wall Street’s Friday retreat and reflecting growing investor caution around AI stocks and underwhelming economic indicators from China. South Korea’s KOSPI took the heaviest hit, tumbling 2.16% as semiconductor giants like SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics saw sharp sell-offs, dropping over 4% and 3.3% respectively. The tech-heavy Kosdaq also declined by 1.17%.

This move echoes broader global risk-off sentiment, with portfolio managers citing fatigue in the AI rally and a general sense of nervousness heading into year-end positioning. Jed Ellerbroek of Argent Capital Management summed it up: “Investors are definitely skittish as it relates to AI not outright pessimistic, but just cautious and hesitant.”

Chinese Data Underdelivers, Pressuring Regional Sentiment

Markets were particularly sensitive to China’s latest economic releases for November. Retail sales rose just 1.3% year-over-year, significantly missing the 2.8% growth forecast and marking a notable slowdown from October’s 2.9% pace. Fixed asset investment and industrial production figures also fell short of expectations, with the latter rising only 4.8%, down from 4.9% previously.

These readings dampen optimism about a near-term rebound in Chinese domestic demand. As China remains a key trading partner and growth driver for the region, any weakness there reverberates across Asia, particularly in export-dependent economies like South Korea, Japan, and Australia.

Japan's Tankan Survey Offers a Glimmer

Contrasting China’s sluggishness, Japan’s latest Tankan survey brought a rare positive surprise. The business sentiment index for large manufacturers rose to +15 in the fourth quarter its highest level in four years meeting economist expectations and suggesting resilience in Japan’s industrial base. The non-manufacturing index also showed strength at +34, reinforcing signs of recovery in the service sector.

However, Japan’s stock markets didn’t escape the regional downturn. The Nikkei 225 dropped 1.3% and the broader Topix fell 0.27%, dragged lower by global cues and profit-taking.

Broader Regional Moves and Australian Tragedy

Across other markets, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.66%, with sentiment further dampened by tragic domestic news its deadliest mass shooting in three decades, which left at least 15 dead. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index slipped 0.79%, while the mainland’s Shanghai Composite edged down 0.12%, with the CSI 300 remaining flat amid mixed investor reactions to China’s data dump.

India’s Nifty 50 remained unchanged, while Taiwan and Southeast Asian markets showed modest movements ahead of regional central bank decisions later this week.

Wall Street’s AI Reversal Sets the Tone

The regional mood was further darkened by Friday’s U.S. session, where major indices pulled back sharply from recent highs. The S&P 500 slid 1.07%, while the Nasdaq tumbled 1.69%, weighed down by sharp losses in AI-related stocks. Broadcom plunged over 11% after its earnings report failed to match lofty investor expectations. AMD, Palantir Technologies, and Micron also saw declines, raising concerns about an overextended AI trade.

This global reset in tech optimism is feeding into Asia, where semiconductor stocks and AI-adjacent sectors are crucial market drivers.

Outlook: Volatility Ahead

As the year winds down, investors remain highly sensitive to macro signals, with China’s faltering recovery and AI trade fatigue clouding near-term visibility. Unless China unveils more aggressive policy support or global tech sentiment stabilizes, Asia-Pacific markets could continue facing downward pressure.

Market watchers now look to upcoming central bank meetings and U.S. data releases to assess whether the recent correction is a pause or the start of a broader risk-off shift.

Source: CNBC

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Political

Economic

· Gun control system faces scrutiny after Bondi shooting

· More than 4 million guns owned legally in Australia, above pre-1996 levels

· One of Bondi attack suspects had licence for six weapons

After Australia's worst mass shooting in 1996, it took the government 12 days to ban semi-automatic weapons, organise a gun buyback scheme and introduce a licensing system to weed out people considered unfit to carry a weapon.

Sunday's shooting at a beachside Jewish celebration in Sydney's Bondi, which left 15 people dead as well as one of the two suspects, has shaken the country's long-standing faith in that gun control system - among the world's toughest - and raised new questions about whether it remains fit for purpose.

Australia's gun ownership system has been widely credited with one of the lowest gun homicide rates, per capita. But the number of guns held legally has risen steadily for more than two decades and now, at four million, exceeds the number before the 1996 crackdown, think-tank the Australia Institute said earlier this year.

The fact that one of the Bondi suspects had a gun licence and six registered weapons raises questions about whether Australia should toughen its laws further, gun control groups and researchers said.

"Events like this feel unimaginable here, which is a testament to the strength of our gun laws," said Gun Control Australia president Tim Quinn in a blog post about the attack.

"It is essential that we ask careful, evidence-based questions about how this attack occurred, including how any weapons were obtained and whether our current laws and enforcement mechanisms are keeping pace with changing risks and technologies."

Members of the forensic team work at the scene of a shooting during a Jewish holiday celebration at Bondi Beach, in Sydney, Australia, December 15, 2025. REUTERS/Hollie Adams

Speaking to reporters on Monday, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said that "if there is any action required in terms of legislative response, we will certainly have it."

Chris Minns, New South Wales state premier, whose jurisdiction includes Sydney, said he would consider recalling state parliament to fast-track new gun legislation.

"It's time we have a change to the law in relation to the firearms legislation ... but I am not ready to announce it today. You can expect action soon," Minns told reporters, without going into detail.

As things stood, the licence held by one of the suspects entitled him to own the weapons he had, NSW police commissioner Mal Lanyon told reporters.

Minns, the premier, said police had recommended an audit of gun licences in Australia's most populous state, adding that "the granting of a firearms licence in perpetuity is clearly not fit for purpose".

Maya Gomez, a lecturer in criminology at Swinburne University of Technology, said NSW gun licence holders must first prove a genuine reason for needing a weapon.

In the aftermath of the Bondi shooting, "questions may turn on the genuine reason provided in terms of the amount, as well as the reasons linked to the types of guns registered and used in the attack", Gomez said in an email.

Source: Reuters

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Economic

Commodity

Copper: The Red Metal’s Meteoric Rise

Copper has reasserted itself as the star commodity of 2025, smashing through historical highs and grabbing headlines across financial markets. Often dubbed “Dr. Copper” for its role as a leading indicator of global economic health, the metal is now at the center of an aggressive rally fueled by a potent mix of geopolitical tension, tariff speculation, and U.S. hoarding behavior.

Recent trading sessions have seen copper breach previous resistance levels, marking all-time highs on major commodity exchanges. Analysts point to an increasingly bullish narrative around supply-chain nationalism, with the U.S. stockpiling industrial metals, including copper, as part of broader economic security measures. This hoarding, viewed by many as preemptive stock insurance against escalating global trade friction, is tightening an already constrained market.

Tariff Fears as a Catalyst

The latest leg of the rally is being significantly accelerated by concerns over potential tariffs. While policymakers have not yet enacted sweeping copper-specific tariffs, the rising tensions between China and Western economies, especially the U.S., are prompting businesses to build buffer inventories. Traders are also front-running policy risks, adding to the speculative surge.

The hoarding behavior aligns with what was seen in other strategic commodities rare earths, lithium, and aluminum where future supply concerns have created self-fulfilling pricing spirals. As copper is critical for electric vehicles, data centers, renewable energy systems, and grid upgrades, any perception of disrupted access sends ripple effects through industrial supply chains.

Supply Constraints Add Fuel

Beyond geopolitical catalysts, copper is also facing deep-rooted structural constraints. Many of the world’s largest mines especially in Chile, Peru, and Indonesia are dealing with declining ore grades, regulatory headwinds, and environmental pushback. The development pipeline for new copper projects has thinned out due to high capital intensity and long lead times, meaning demand outstripping supply could persist into the next decade.

Moreover, global green energy transitions are copper-intensive, from EVs to solar farms to high-voltage cabling. As nations race to meet net-zero goals, demand for copper is expected to outpace supply growth significantly unless major new investments are unlocked quickly.

Market Outlook: How High Can It Go?

Industry insiders now warn that copper prices may be entering a phase of “stratospheric new highs” if the current dynamic continues unchecked. Futures traders are pricing in continued upward pressure, with some analysts forecasting copper breaching the $12,000 per metric ton threshold by early 2026, particularly if China’s stimulus measures bolster demand or the U.S. formalizes new trade restrictions.

While some caution that prices could overshoot fundamentals in the short term, the convergence of real demand, speculative momentum, and long-term structural imbalance presents a bullish case few investors can ignore.

Copper’s surge is not just a commodity rally it’s a reflection of deep structural realignments in the global economy. With supply tightening, governments stockpiling, and energy transitions accelerating, the market appears poised for a sustained high-price era. Unless global production responds quickly or policy shocks are averted, copper may be on a trajectory that rewrites commodity price history.