Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Keeps Traders on Edge

Commodity

Summary:

Gold hovers near $3,340 and silver around $37.80 as Fed minutes and strong dollar cap upside. Traders await Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, with metals stuck between hawkish policy and geopolitical uncertainty.

Market Overview

Gold and silver drifted lower in Asian trading as investors digested the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes, which reinforced concerns over persistent inflation. The minutes revealed that nearly all policymakers backed holding interest rates steady, but emphasized that inflation remains a larger risk than labor market weakness.

Analysts noted that this reduced the likelihood of a September rate cut, curbing investor appetite for non-yielding assets like gold and silver.

“The Fed appears to be keeping its tightening bias alive, and that makes it difficult for precious metals to build sustained momentum,” said a Singapore-based commodities strategist. The US Dollar extended gains on the hawkish tone, adding to the headwinds for metals priced in the greenback.

Geopolitical Shifts and US Political Risks

The metals market also absorbed geopolitical and political developments that shaped investor sentiment. Optimism surrounding potential progress in Russia-Ukraine peace efforts has eased safe-haven demand. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reiterated that any security arrangement would be incomplete without Moscow’s involvement, underscoring the complexity of negotiations.

Meanwhile, US domestic politics injected uncertainty into markets. Former President Trump’s demand for the resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage fraud has stirred debate about central bank independence.

Political instability, while weighing on the US Dollar’s long-term outlook, has provided limited support for gold and silver in the near term.

Investors Await Powell’s Jackson Hole Address

Looking ahead, investor attention is firmly on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Markets expect Powell to offer critical guidance on the policy path, particularly regarding the balance between inflation risks and slowing growth.

Alongside Powell’s speech, flash PMIs, weekly jobless claims, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will provide essential signals on global economic momentum.

For now, gold and silver remain caught between the opposing forces of hawkish monetary policy and pockets of geopolitical uncertainty. Until clear direction emerges from the Fed, the metals market is likely to remain volatile, with traders closely tracking macroeconomic data and central bank commentary.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold remains choppy near $3,340, supported at $3,333 with resistance at $3,359. Silver trades around $37.82, holding support at $37.50; a break above $38.29 may extend gains toward $38.71–$39.19.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $3,340, holding above immediate support at $3,333 while facing resistance at $3,359. Price action remains choppy, but the ascending trendline from late July underpins a broader bullish structure.

The 50-EMA ($3,338) and 100-EMA ($3,343) are converging, signaling indecision, while the RSI at 53 reflects neutral momentum with slight upside bias.

A close above $3,359 could open the door toward $3,375 and $3,402, while failure to hold $3,333 risks a deeper pullback to $3,318 and $3,306.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading around $37.82, consolidating below resistance at $37.93 while holding support at $37.50. Price is squeezed within a descending triangle, with the 50-EMA ($37.79) and 100-EMA ($37.86) acting as near-term pivot levels.

The RSI sits at 55, suggesting mild bullish momentum but not yet signaling strong conviction. A breakout above $38.29 could clear the path toward $38.71 and $39.19, while failure to hold $37.50 risks a slide toward $37.06 and $36.67.

Source: fxempire

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Adam

Cryptocurrency

Digital assets are losing ground as traders brace for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s closely watched address at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.

Spot Bitcoin and Ether exchange-traded funds in the US have logged four straight sessions of outflows, with investors pulling a net $1.9 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

A broad rally in cryptocurrencies drove Bitcoin to a record on Aug. 14, while pushing Ether to within touching distance of its own all-time high. That momentum — fed by an array of corporate crypto accumulators built in the mold of Michael Saylor’s Strategy — now appears to be dwindling.

Bitcoin Traders Jittery Ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech_1

Options activity shows traders turning defensive. The put-to-call ratio for Aug. 22 contracts jumped to 1.33 on Deribit, the derivatives exchange, with $3.8 billion in Bitcoin options expiring. The largest open interest is in $110,000 puts, signaling concern over a near-term pullback as traders seek downside protection. Put options offer downside insurance by giving contract holders the right to sell at a certain price.

“What the put-call ratio tells you is that, given high expectation of rate cuts in Sept., the market is more sensitive to the risk of Powell sounding hawkish than dovish,” said Peter Chung, head of research at Presto. “The market gyrations over the last few days is the result of investors positioning themselves for an uncertain outcome of the speech.”

Bitcoin Traders Jittery Ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech_2

Bitcoin fell 0.7% to $113,624 as of 9:45 a.m. in London, extending its retreat to 9% from its record of $124,514. Ether, the second-largest token, slid 1.6% to $4,288.

President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell’s cautious approach to rate cuts. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently said he expects Trump to announce Powell’s replacement by year-end, making Friday’s Jackson Hole address likely his last as Fed chair.

Minutes from the Fed’s last policy meeting, released yesterday, underscored that officials still see inflation risks as outweighing employment concerns, even as new tariffs are expected to take time to feed into the economy. That backdrop has reinforced bets that Powell’s tone could temper hopes for aggressive easing.

“The FOMC meeting minutes released overnight indicated that the impact of new tariffs is expected to take time to materialise. Additionally, a majority of members viewed inflation risks as outweighing employment risks, signalling a continued cautious stance on rate cuts,” said Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG Australia Pty.

Source: Bloomberg

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Michelle

Political

Russian President Vladimir Putin is prepared to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy but all issues must be worked through first and there's a question about Zelenskiy's authority to sign a peace deal, Putin's foreign minister said on Thursday.

Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump met on Friday in Alaska for the first Russia-U.S. summit in more than four years and the two leaders discussed how to end the deadliest war in Europe since World War Two.

After his summit talks in Alaska, Trump said on Monday he had begun arranging, opens new tab a meeting between the Russian and Ukrainian leaders, to be followed by a trilateral summit with the U.S. president.

Asked by reporters if Putin was willing to meet Zelenskiy, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said: "Our president has repeatedly said that he is ready to meet, including with Mr. Zelenskiy".

Lavrov, though, added a caveat: "With the understanding that all issues that require consideration at the highest level will be well worked out, and experts and ministers will prepare appropriate recommendations.

"And, of course, with the understanding that when and if - hopefully, when - it comes to signing future agreements, the issue of the legitimacy of the person who signs these agreements from the Ukrainian side will be resolved," Lavrov said.

Putin has repeatedly raised doubts about Zelenskiy's legitimacy as his term in office was due to expire in May 2024 but the war means no new presidential election has yet been held. Kyiv says Zelenskiy remains the legitimate president.

Russian officials say they are worried that if Zelenskiy signs the deal then a future leader of Ukraine could contest it on the basis that Zelenskiy's term had technically expired.

Zelenskiy said this week Kyiv would like a "strong reaction" from Washington if Putin were not willing to sit down for a bilateral meeting with him.

WAR OR PEACE?

European leaders say they are sceptical that Putin is really interested in peace, but are searching for a credible way to ensure Ukraine's security as part of a potential peace deal with minimal U.S. involvement.

Lavrov said it was clear that neither Ukraine nor European leaders wanted peace. He accused the so-called "coalition of the willing" - which includes major European powers such as Britain, France, Germany and Italy - of trying to undermine the progress made in Alaska.

"They are not interested in a sustainable, fair, long-term settlement," Lavrov said of Ukraine. He said the Europeans were interested in achieving the strategic defeat of Russia.

"European countries followed Mr. Zelenskiy to Washington and tried to advance their agenda there, which aims to ensure that security guarantees are based on the logic of isolating Russia," Lavrov said, referring to Monday's gathering of Trump, Zelenskiy and the leaders of major European powers at the White House.

Lavrov said the best option for a security guarantee for Ukraine would be based on discussions that took place between Moscow and Kyiv in Istanbul in 2022.

Under a draft of that document which Reuters has seen, Ukraine was asked to agree to permanent neutrality in return for international security guarantees from the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council: Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States.

Any attempts to depart from the failed Istanbul discussions would be hopeless, Lavrov said.

At the time, Kyiv rejected that proposal on the grounds that Moscow would have held effective veto power over any military response to come to its aid.

Source: Reuters

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Warren Takunda

Economic

The British Pound was lifted by PMI data for August that handily beat expectations, although the details in the report is likely limiting the currency's upside ambitions.

GBP/EUR rose from 1.15440 to 1.1554 in the minutes following news the UK economy's private sector likely expanded comfortably in August, retracing some of the previous day's decline.

The S&P Global Composite PMI for August rose to 53 from 51.5 in June, beating consensus predictions for an outcome of 51.6.

The GBP/USD rose to 1.3460 from 1.3454 prior to the release.

The services sector drove the expansion, with the Services PMI rising to 53.6 from 51.8. The Manufacturing PMI was nevertheless stuck in the sub-50 contraction zone at 47.30, down from 48 in June.

Despite the comfortable beat in expectations, the Pound's advance looks to be rather tepid compared to reactions that followed similar significant surprises in the past.

It echoes the subdued response that followed Wednesday's consensus-defying rise in UK inflation figures, which lowered analyst expectations for a November interest rate cut at the Bank of England.

The S&P Global survey revealed that new business volumes expanded at the strongest pace since October 2024, implying strong growth ahead.

However, the relatively subdued tone of Sterling exchange rates likely reflects findings that "Employment was again a weak spot as total workforce numbers decreased for the eleventh month running and at a marked pace."

Financial markets might be looking through the current rise in inflation and uptick in private sector activity, judging that widespread evidence of an employment slowdown points to weakness in the coming months.

Financial market pricing shows investors are lowering the odds of rate cuts for the remainder of 2025, but they are pricing in more rate cuts for 2026. In short, the deterioration in the labour market - which today's PMIs corroborate - points to a backloaded pattern of cuts.

This is proving a headwind to the Pound.

Fears that the UK is entering a period of stagflation is also unhelpful to those wanting a stronger Pound. The August PMI report finds: "Input cost inflation meanwhile edged up to its highest since May. Survey respondents continued to note that suppliers had sought to pass on increased National Insurance costs."

Higher payroll costs also resulted in another robust rise in prices charged by private sector firms in August, with service providers recording particularly strong inflationary pressures, said S&P Global. On Wednesday the ONS reported services sector inflation spiked to 5.0% in July, which is also giving markets reason to think the Bank of England will delay cutting rates further.

Pound Sterling Ticks Higher Against Euro and Dollar After Strong PMI_1

Above: Official payroll data from the ONS paints a clear picture of politically-induced labour market deterioration.

"Payroll numbers also continue to be cut at an aggressive rate by historical standards as firms cite weak order books and concerns over rising staff costs due to the policies announced in the autumn Budget, which also contributed to persistent inflation pressures," says Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

"We are very sceptical that this solid performance will last," says Matthew Ryan, Head of Market Strategy at Ebury. "A hotter than usual summer is likely to be buoying the services sector, notably helping to prop up retail, tourism and hospitality activity. This will likely prove to be no more than a temporary sugar rush, however, rather than a sustained boom."

Ebury expects growth to moderate during the rest of the year, with rising labour costs, high inflation and acute fiscal policy uncertainty set to trigger a tightening of the belts among business owners and consumers alike in the coming months."

Source: Poundsterlinglive

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Winkelmann

Economic

Political

Forex

South Korea is set to unveil about $150 billion in US investment plans by private companies during a summit between President Lee Jae Myung and US President Donald Trump, the Hankyoreh newspaper reported Thursday.The pledge is likely to include both ongoing and future projects and will be separate from the $350 billion South Korea agreed to invest in the US as part of a trade agreement struck last month.

While the $150 billion package will be highlighted at the summit, officials don’t expect further discussion of the $350 billion investment fund, which was a centerpiece of last month’s trade agreement, the newspaper said, citing unidentified government officials.The trade agreement between the two countries reached in July capped US tariffs on imports of Korean goods at 15%, one of the most favorable rates.

Lee is set to meet Trump on Aug. 25, a high-stakes trip that’s also expected to cover security issues.The scale of US-bound investments to be announced on the occasion of the South Korea-US summit has not yet been determined, South Korea’s industry ministry said in a statement late Wednesday. The government did not offer an immediate comment when reached by Bloomberg News.

Several Korean companies already have existing US investment plans, including Samsung Electronics Co.’s multibillion-dollar semiconductor plant in Texas and Hyundai Motor Group’s $21 billion pledge for vehicle and steel facilities. Last year, Hanwha Ocean Co. and Hanwha Systems Co. acquired Philly Shipyard for $100 million and parent Hanwha Group is preparing detailed investment plans tied to shipbuilding cooperation in the US, the report added.Leaders of South Korean conglomerates, including Samsung’s Jay Y. Lee, Hyundai Motor’s Euisun Chung, SK’s Chey Tae-won and LG’s Koo Kwang-mo, will join the delegation for the US trip, Yonhap News reported last week. Hanwha Group’s Kim Dong-kwan and HD Hyundai’s Chung Ki-sun and Hanjin Group’s Walter Cho may also join, according to Yonhap

South Korea has previously said that the country’s $350 billion investment pledge as part of the US trade deal is largely structured as loan guarantees rather than direct capital injections and the actual equity commitment would remain below 5%.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Michelle

Economic

Forex

Gold prices rose sharply following the release of worse-than-expected labor market data after the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits was well above economists’ forecasts.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits came in at seasonally adjusted 235,000 for the week ending August 16, the Labor Department announced on Thursday. The number was higher than expectations, as consensus estimates forecasted a reading of 225,000 claims. The previous week’s figure was unrevised at 224,000.

Spot gold rose back toward session highs following the 8:30 am EDT data, and last traded at $3,343.07 per ounce for a loss of 0.16% on the session.

Meanwhile, the four-week moving average for new claims – often viewed as a more reliable measure of the labor market since it flattens week-to-week volatility – came in at 226,250 following the previous week's unrevised average of 221,750.

Continuing jobless claims, which represent the number of people already receiving benefits, were at 1.972 million during the week ending August 9, higher than the expected 1.960 million reading and the previous week’s downwardly revised 1.942 million level.

Source: Kitco

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Warren Takunda

Stocks

London stocks had slipped into the red by midday on Thursday following a record close the day earlier, as investors mulled a raft of UK data releases and looked ahead to the Jackson Hole symposium.

The FTSE 100 was down 0.3% at 9,265.15, reversing earlier small gains.

The latest industrial trends survey from the Confederation of British Industry showed that output volumes fell in the three months to August, having been broadly flat in July.

The CBI's balance for manufacturing new orders fell to -33 from -30 in July. Meanwhile, the gauge for the volume of output expected in the next three months declined to -13 in August from -6 the month before.

Ben Jones, lead economist at the CBI, said: "Manufacturers report that rising costs are squeezing margins and leaving customers more cautious, which in turn is hitting orders and weighing on output. With weak demand compounded by trade frictions and policy uncertainty, the outlook for UK manufacturers remains challenging.

"As firms continue to cite, they are contending with a range of cost pressures from high energy costs to the additional burden from last year's Autumn Budget increase in employer NICs.

"Against this backdrop, the upcoming Autumn Budget is a pivotal moment to shore up business sentiment. The government must provide business tax certainty and further Growth and Skills Levy flexibility, accelerate industrial and infrastructure strategy implementation, and broaden support to tackle uncompetitive energy prices.

"The CBI stands ready to partner with the government to co-design the policies that will build a truly competitive, innovative, and prosperous UK economy."

Market participants were also digesting a survey that showed private sector business activity accelerated to its fastest pace in a year in August.

The S&P Global flash UK PMI composite output index - which covers both the manufacturing and services sectors - rose to 53.0 from 51.5 in July, coming above the 50.0 mark that separates contraction from expansion.

It also marked the strongest output growth since August 2024, with a faster rise in service sector activity more than offsetting another marginal decline in manufacturing production.

Service providers pointed to improved demand conditions, while goods producers put lower output down to a lack of new work and intense competitive pressures.

Finally, data from the Office for National Statistics showed that government borrowing was lower than expected in July.

Borrowing came in at £1.1bn, down £2.3bn on July 2024 and marking the lowest July figure for three years following tax rises in April. Analysts were expecting £2.6bn and the Office for Budget Responsibility had forecast £2.1bn.

Borrowing in the financial year to July rose £6.7bn to £60bn. This was the third-highest April to July borrowing since monthly records began, after those of 2020 and 2021.

Looking ahead to the rest of the day, Dan Coatsworth, investment analyst at AJ Bell, noted that the Jackson Hole meeting is set to get underway, "with all the focus on Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell and what he has to say about interest rates".

He added: "While there have been signs of weakness in the US economy, inflation is proving to be relatively sticky and the Fed may feel the full impact of tariffs is not yet showing up in CPI readings."

In equity markets, Legal & General, Schroders, Mondi, Imperial Brands, Entain and Anglo American all fell as they traded without entitlement to the dividend.

WH Smith tanked as it cut its North America profit guidance after uncovering an overstatement of around £30m of expected trading profit.

For the year to the end of August, the group now expects headline trading profit from the North America division to be about £25m, down from previous market expectations of approximately £55m.

Full-year headline profit before tax and non-underlying items will be in the region of £110m, it said.

Recruiter Hays slumped as it more than halved its annual dividend after delivering a big drop in profits, as expected, over the year to 30 June, saying job markets have yet to recover in the new financial year.

Engineering firm Renishaw shot higher as it said full-year adjusted pre-tax profit was set to be towards the top of its £109m to £127m guidance range and announced the departure of group finance director Allen Roberts after 46 years with the company.

On the upside, Premier Inn owner Whitbread gained as Citi lifted its price target on the stock to 3,800p from 3,600p and reiterated its ‘buy’ rating, saying it sees a "compelling investment case" after the 29% share price increase since April.

Premier Foods rose after announcing the acquisition of convenient meals brand Merchant Gourmet for £48m.