Gold Rebounds As $4,200 Support Holds, Eyes $4,300–$4,380 Zone

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

Gold is over the support of $4,200, which creates good buyer interest and may push the price up to the middle range resistance near the level of $4,300.

Further strength above $4,200 will provide a direction to $4,380, which is close to the upper limit of the current trading span.

The sharp declines in the recent past are all contained meaning that it could be reversing to the mean and short-term recovery of the market as the momentum turns in favour of buyers.

Gold (XAU/USD) is testing the important $4,200 support level associated with prior demand zones having previously triggered rebounds in the past. Current price action suggests possible upside momentum if price holds above this support level at $4,200.

Support Holds Near $4,200

Gold’s 1-hour chart shows the market approaching the lower boundary of the recent trading range around $4,200. Historical data indicates this zone has consistently acted as a strong demand base. Sellers have shown reduced strength near $4,217–$4,200, signaling possible defensive buying.

According to Ali _charts, “If gold holds $4,200 as support, a rebound to $4,300 or even $4,380 could follow.” This tweet reflects the market’s focus on defending the support level. Price structure suggests a potential “V-shaped” recovery, where buyers may step in aggressively.

Momentum indicators imply the recent drop has been contained within a short-term range. Sharp declines often precede mean reversion when demand enters the market, which could support a rebound toward higher levels.

Rebound Targets and Market Structure

If $4,200 holds, the first recovery target is $4,300, aligning with mid-range resistance from prior consolidations. This level could act as an initial zone for profit-taking by traders.

The second target stands at $4,380, representing the upper boundary of the current trading range. This area often serves as a liquidity zone where larger market participants may adjust positions. A bounce toward this level would signal a short-term recovery in price action.

A move back below $4,200 would likely open lower supports near $4,170, and draw additional defensive settlements into the market focus. Traders are eyeing this point for a potential shift in short-term trend and future buying reaction.

For now, the market’s direction largely depends on the defense of the $4,200 support. Holding this zone could allow gold to regain upward momentum and challenge the $4,300–$4,380 range efficiently.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Devin

Central Bank

The Bank of England warned of parallels between the $1.7 trillion private credit boom and the subprime debt crisis, as UK officials confirmed plans to subject the market to stress tests.

BOE Governor Andrew Bailey told a Parliament committee on Tuesday that “alarm bells” were ringing in the sector. He cited conversations with industry figures who assured him that “everything was fine in their world, apart from the role of the rating agencies,” in an echo of the confusion over the quality of debt in subprime debt securitizations almost two decades ago.

“I said, ‘Well, we’re not playing that movie again, are we?’” Bailey told a hearing of the House of Lords’ Financial Services Regulation Committee in London. “If you were involved before the financial crisis and during it, alarm bells start going off at that point.”

The comments by the British central bank chief, who also chairs the Basel, Switzerland,-based Financial Stability Board, are the latest warning about the world’s private credit market. Sarah Breeden, the BOE’s deputy governor for financial stability, pointed to the market’s opacity, leverage and its links with banks as some of the industry’s risks.

The sector has ballooned since the great financial crisis, driven in part by governments’ efforts to tighten regulation on commercial lenders and reduce risks. It’s also awash with cash from insurance firms, which require ratings for regulatory purposes. Firms are building more complex structures such as collateralized fund obligations with investment grade ratings, in part to accommodate insurance capital.

Concerns are mounting that any problems that emerge in the sector and the broader leveraged credit markets could quickly spread to banks and the wider economy after the recent collapse of US firms First Brands and Tricolor. Those cases prompted JP Morgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon to warn that “when you see one cockroach, there are probably more.”

Private credit executives have hit back, saying the issue was in loans that banks led and shouldn’t be held up as evidence of growing risks enabled by newer players muscling into lending. Still, Bailey said it was still an “open question” whether cases like First Brands were a “canary in the coal mine.”

In the run up to the financial crisis, creative packaging of loans led to groups of risky credits rebranded as collectively safe securities. The result was hundreds of billions of losses, the collapse of Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns and a global financial crisis that weighed on growth for more than a decade.

Bailey, who helped oversee the BOE’s efforts to rescue the banks during the financial crisis, specifically mentioned the “slicing and dicing and tranching of loan structures” among the trends the bank was scrutinizing. The BOE has been exploring the issue for several months, amid escalating fears about the standalone risks from private credit and the potential for those to spill over into the mainstream banking sector.

Bailey and Breeden confirmed a Bloomberg News report earlier on Friday that the central bank was speaking with firms about conducting a “system-wide exploratory scenario” to find vulnerabilities in the broad private credit market. The so-called stress test would use a similar model to last year’s review of risks to core UK financial markets.

“We can see parallels with the GFC,” said Breeden. “What we don’t know is how macro significant those issues are.”

The scrutiny comes as President Donald Trump in the US and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves in the UK encourage pension funds and others to invest in private markets. The US Government Accountability Office is also assessing the risks posed by private credit is expected to report back in the spring.

“Precisely how close to a tipping point we are it is hard to say,” said David Blake, director of Bayes Business School’s Pensions Institute. “This wall of money will create a bubble that will eventually burst.”

The BOE doesn’t have direct regulatory oversight of private credit markets and will need cooperation from firms to probe the risks contained within the sector. The political hurdle for new regulation would likely also be high, given the UK government’s push for fewer burdens on businesses and a global wave of deregulation.

Bailey told the Lords committee that he would seek other avenues before new rules. “Transparency is the first, in a sense, disinfectant.”

“We have to have a system that encourages risk to be taken and investment to be made,” he said. “My first reaction is, how can we improve that? I wouldn’t go to regulation as the first answer to that.”

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Adam

Economic

Britain's inflation rate looks set to hit 4% in September in data due for release on Wednesday, the highest among the world's big rich economies and double the Bank of England's target.

The fast pace of price growth - while a lot lower than a peak of 11.1% in 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine -puts a strain on households and means borrowing costs are likely to stay higher than in other countries, at least in the short term.

It also adds to the challenge for finance minister Rachel Reeves who has promised voters that she will ease cost-of-living pressures and speed economic growth but is likely to raise taxes in her budget next month, potentially adding to inflation.

Below is an explanation of Britain's price growth problem.

WHY IS UK INFLATION SO HIGH?

Britain's inflation rate was 3.8% in August, much higher than the euro zone's 2.0%.

A driver of British prices has been fast wage growth due in part to a worker shortage since the COVID-19 pandemic and increases to the minimum wage and employer taxes.

Like in other countries, energy and food prices rose earlier this year. Energy prices had exerted significant downward pressure on inflation in late 2023 and 2024.

WHAT ELSE IS DRIVING UK INFLATION?

Government-influenced prices are another factor. Higher sewerage charges, bus fares and vehicle excise duty and the introduction of value added tax on private school fees mean so-called administered prices in Britain have risen more sharply than in the euro zone.

Jack Meaning, chief UK economist at Barclays, estimated Britain's inflation rate in August would have been around 2.9 excluding the impact of tax increases in Reeves' budget last year and of administered prices.

While the BoE expects regulated electricity and gas prices to stop driving inflation in the coming months, food prices are likely to rise further.

Food retailers blame the increase in prices to date on a new packaging tax as well as the hike in employers' social security contributions and the minimum wage and global prices. The BoE fears higher food prices drive up inflation expectations which can lead to price pressures becoming embedded in the economy.

WHY DOES IT MATTER?

British households - excluding pensioners - have seen very little growth in their living standards since 2010, when taking inflation into account.

Wage growth is running not far above inflation and is slowing, limiting any recovery in spending power.

High inflation also adds to the government's debt bill - Britain has a bigger proportion of its bonds indexed to inflation than other countries, putting further strain on the budget at a time when other spending demands are rising too.

High inflation can slow long-term economic growth if it makes households want to save more to withstand future price shocks and deters businesses from developing longer-term plans.

WHAT'S LIKELY TO HAPPEN?

The BoE has forecast that consumer price inflation will peak in September but will only return to its 2% target in the April-to-June period of 2027.

Governor Andrew Bailey and his colleagues say the outlook for inflation is still unclear, making it hard to predict when interest rates are likely to be cut again.

Source: reuters

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Adam

Cryptocurrency

Big Bitcoin holders are moving their wealth from the blockchain onto Wall Street’s balance sheet.

A new generation of ETFs is giving the crypto rich a novel way to fold their digital fortunes into the regulated financial system — without selling, and through funds run by big asset managers like BlackRock Inc.

A regulatory change this summer opened the door for large investors to hand their Bitcoin to an ETF in exchange for shares of the fund. It’s called an in-kind transaction and is used across most ETFs, but was only approved for Bitcoin products this July. The process is generally tax-neutral, whereby no cash changes hands and no sale is recorded. The result is that a volatile digital asset becomes a line item on a brokerage statement — easier to borrow against, pledge as collateral, or pass onto heirs.

BlackRock has already facilitated more than $3 billion of these conversions, according to Robbie Mitchnick, its head of digital assets. Bitwise Asset Management says inquiries now arrive daily from investors wanting to bring their holdings onto wealth-manager platforms. Liquidity provider Galaxy has processed a handful of conversions so far, says Michael Harvey, its head of franchise trading.

Large Bitcoin holders are waking up to “the convenience of being able to hold their exposure within their existing financial adviser or private-bank relationship,” among other reasons for converting, Mitchnick said.

It’s the latest reinvention for the world’s largest cryptocurrency. Born as a decentralized revolt against mainstream financial institutions, Bitcoin is now being quietly absorbed by them. Its anti-establishment holders are warming up to the idea that some parts of finance are better accessed through the traditional system.

By exchanging their Bitcoin for ETF shares, investors can keep the same stake in the cryptocurrency while moving it into a form the financial system recognizes. Inside a brokerage account, that holding can be pledged as collateral, borrowed against or included in estate plans — things that are cumbersome, risky or impossible when assets sit in a private digital wallet. The ETF wrapper offers legitimacy and ease, turning what was once off-grid wealth into something banks and advisers can work with.

“There are still benefits of having things in the traditional financial system,” said Teddy Fusaro, president at Bitwise, whose firm executed its first in-kind transaction with the BITB ETF in August.

He gave an example of an investor with a $1 million portfolio housed on a wealth-management platform and a separate $5 million worth of Bitcoin on a ledger. “Your wealth management platform treats you like you’re a $1 million client,” said Fusaro. “If you bring your $5 million worth of Bitcoin into a Bitcoin ETF, and you now hold that on your wealth management platform, you qualify for a much higher level of service.”

BlackRock Is Pulling Bitcoin Whales Into Wall Street’s Orbit_1

BlackRock’s Mitchnick declined to comment on the exact number of transactions his firm has processed within the IBIT ETF, but said further regulatory clarity would expand volumes and participation from big banks. He said client inquiries range from investors looking to switch just 20% of their Bitcoin to ETF form, to holders looking to go completely TradFi.

“There is a subset who are just going 100/zero, saying ‘consolidate everything in this way, it’s the easiest way for me to hold this going forward,’” he said.

Meanwhile, more of Wall Street may soon be looking to take advantage of these in-kind transactions. BlackRock says banks are already playing a limited role in facilitating these trades — particularly in the ETF creation leg — even though only non-bank broker-dealers can currently handle the full transaction.

“Life is just easier in TradFi land — we’ve spent a century perfecting integration, access, and security. Bitcoiners are finally realizing that,” said Wes Gray, CEO and founder of ETF firm Alpha Architect, which specializes in tax-aware strategies. “The great irony, of course, is that Bitcoin was born to escape traditional finance — and now its biggest holders are trying to get back in.”

Source: Bloomberg

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Adam

Forex

After Beijing announced restrictions on rare earth exports, the White House initially reacted strongly. However, both sides are now showing willingness to continue talks. This softer stance has brought moderate optimism to stock markets, which are rising in both the US and Europe, while currency markets remain stable, with the euro trading around $1.16–$1.17.

Meanwhile, the ongoing US government shutdown and lack of major economic updates are unlikely to stop the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates later this month. Important inflation data expected this Friday may show a slight rise in the CPI to 3.1% year-on-year.

EUR/USD Teeters Near Key Fibonacci Level Ahead of This Week’s US CPI Test_1

Will the US and China Strike an Agreement?

At this stage, both China and the U.S. have too much to lose to halt talks and rely solely on high tariffs and export controls. That is why Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with Chinese Vice Premier Lifeng, with discussions described as generally productive.

President Donald Trump also suggested that the November 1 deadline for the full 100% tariff may change, and negotiations will continue. Following these developments, the US dollar strengthened locally and may continue to do so if positive news from the Washington-Beijing talks persists.

The negotiations are expected to lead up to a Trump-Xi meeting in late October or early November in South Korea. However, given the complexity of global trade and the many points of potential disagreement, it is unlikely that a single meeting will produce comprehensive solutions, as past talks—like those between Trump and Putin—have shown.

Fed Signals Point Clearly to Another Rate Decision

Market expectations suggest another US interest rate cut next week. Fed officials, including Alberto Musalem and Stephen Miran, have indicated that at least moderate monetary easing is the right approach. However, this cut is already priced into the market, so unless there is a surprise, attention will likely shift to the December meeting, where another 25 basis point cut is expected with over 90% probability.

EUR/USD Battles to Maintain Downward Momentum

The recent decline in EUR/USD, which began late last week, has reached a key support area near 1.1630, where it aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.

EUR/USD Teeters Near Key Fibonacci Level Ahead of This Week’s US CPI Test_2

If this support area breaks, EUR/USD could continue lower, with a target near 1.1550. If the support holds and buying interest appears, the 1.1720 level remains the main resistance.

Source: investing

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Olivia Brooks

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

European nations are working with Ukraine on a 12-point proposal to end Russia’s war along current battle lines, pushing back against Vladimir Putin’s renewed demands to the US for Kyiv to surrender territory in return for a peace deal.

A peace board chaired by US President Donald Trump would oversee implementation of the proposed plan, according to people familiar with the matter.

Once Russia follows Ukraine in agreeing to a ceasefire and both sides commit to halting territorial advances, the proposals envisage the return of all deported children to Ukraine and exchanges of prisoners. Ukraine would receive security guarantees, funds to repair war damage and a pathway to rapidly join the European Union.

Sanctions on Russia would gradually be lifted though some $300 billion in frozen central bank reserves would only be returned once Moscow agrees to contribute toward Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction. The restrictions would snap back if Russia attacked its neighbor again.

Moscow and Kyiv would enter into negotiations on the governance of occupied territories, though neither Europe nor Ukraine will legally recognize any occupied land as Russian, the people said.

Russia has so far rejected calls to end the fighting along existing lines, despite incurring massive casualties in the war that’s now in its fourth year.

Details of the plan are being finalized and could still change, the people cautioned, asking not to be identified discussing private deliberations. Any proposal would also need buy-in from Washington and European officials may travel to the US this week, the people said.

The pitch echoes calls made by Trump last week to immediately freeze the conflict along current lines before starting negotiations.

Following a call with Putin and a White House meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the US president said Russia and Ukraine should “stop where they are.”

“Enough blood has been shed, with property lines being defined by War and Guts,” he said in a Truth Social post.

He reiterated his position in comments to reporters aboard Air Force One, saying both sides should “stop right now at the battle lines, go home, stop killing people and be done,” adding that they could discuss territory later.

Trump said he’s agreed to meet with Putin in Budapest in the coming weeks. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio held phone talks on Monday with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov but the two sides failed to reach agreement on a meeting to prepare for the summit.

The Kremlin sought to play down expectations for an early meeting between Putin and Trump.

“The work ahead will be challenging,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday, according to the Interfax news service. “Neither President Trump nor President Putin have given a precise timeframe. Preparation, serious preparation, is needed.”

European leaders said they “strongly support” an immediate halt to Russia’s war in Ukraine along existing positions to allow for peace talks in a statement Tuesday.

Ukraine’s allies from the so-called Coalition of the Willing will convene on Friday. A summit of European Union leaders in Brussels on Thursday will discuss additional sanctions targeting the Kremlin as well as financial aid to Ukraine through the use of frozen Russian central bank assets.

While Zelenskiy criticized Budapest as a venue for negotiations because of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Russia-friendly stance, he said he’d attend the summit talks if invited.

“We have moved closer to a possible end to the war, I can tell you that for certain,” Zelenskiy told reporters in Kyiv following his US visit. “That doesn’t mean it will definitely end, but President Trump has achieved a lot in the Middle East, and riding that wave he wants to end Russia’s war against Ukraine.”

Trump made no mention of Ukraine’s requests for more air defense, energy support or longer-range capabilities after his meeting with Zelenskiy on Friday.

During their discussions, Trump forcefully urged Zelenskiy to quickly accept a deal and emphasized Russia’s strengths, according to the people. US officials who were present floated the possibility of Ukraine making territorial concessions to enable an agreement, the people said.

The Ukrainian president said in remarks released over the weekend that the war should be frozen along current battle lines before the two sides can enter into peace negotiations.

“If we want to stop this war and to go to peace negotiations urgently and in a diplomatic way, we need to stay where we stay, not to give something additional to Putin,” he said in an interview with NBC’s Meet the Press With Kristen Welker broadcast on Sunday.

Ukraine’s allies have seen no signs of Putin shifting away from his maximalist demands, a senior European government official said. The only change they see is in Trump, who allies thought had come around to the need to increase pressure on Russia only to apparently backtrack again after talking to Putin, the official said.

The Russian president renewed demands that Ukraine cede the entire eastern Donbas area during his call with Trump on Thursday, according to the people. Russian troops have failed to fully occupy the area, which comprises the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, in more than 11 years of fighting, and would likely take years to do so, if at all.

It’s unclear if Moscow is willing to make any territorial concessions elsewhere in return, said the people. In addition to the Crimean peninsula that it illegally annexed in 2014 and parts of the Donbas, Russia also partly occupies and lays claim to Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Thomas

Economic

Prime Minister Mark Carney says it’s “possible” that a trade deal will be reached with the US ahead of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit next week.

Speaking to reporters Tuesday morning, Carney said Canada is in “intensive negotiations” with the US and that he expects to see President Donald Trump at the summit in Gyeongju, South Korea.

“It’s possible, but we’ll see,” Carney said on the potential for a deal. Still, he emphasized the importance of his government’s talks with Asian nations, including China, as Canada looks to diversify its trade beyond the US.

Meanwhile, Dominic LeBlanc, Canada’s minister responsible for US trade, tempered expectations on the timing of a deal.

“I think it’s a bit overoptimistic to claim that we’re a few days away from reaching a deal,” LeBlanc said.

The minister said he doesn’t want to set an “artificial deadline” on the timing, but he also said there was positive momentum in the negotiations.

“We’re making progress, we’re into a level of detail that we hadn’t seen previously, but we still have work to do,” said LeBlanc, who returned from his latest trip to Washington on Friday.

The comments followed a report in the Globe and Mail that an agreement may be struck by the APEC summit, which will be held Oct. 31 to Nov. 1.

Carney visited Trump earlier this month in the Oval Office in a bid to further trade talks.

During their meeting, Trump said he expects the US and Canada can eventually reach a trade deal, but he remained vague about how and when an agreement might be achieved.

Negotiators have been focused on striking a deal that would offer Canada some relief from steel and aluminum tariffs while boosting sales of Canadian energy to the US, potentially through a revitalized Keystone XL pipeline.