Gold Reaches New High Amid Economic Uncertainty

Oil headed for the biggest weekly gain since late October, as traders tracked a partial US blockade of crude shipments from Venezuela and a military strike by Washington against a terrorist group in Nigeria.

US benchmark West Texas Intermediate was steady above $58 a barrel, more than 3% higher this week, the most since the period to Oct. 24. On Venezuela, a sanctioned tanker pursued by US forces turned away from the South American nation, as the Trump administration piled pressure on Caracas.

The White House has ordered commanders to concentrate for the next two months on quarantining Venezuelan oil, according to a person familiar with the matter. The person, who requested anonymity, said US forces were focused almost exclusively on the blockade, rather than military options.

US oil remains on track for the biggest annual decline since 2020 after slumping about 18%. The decline has been driven by expectations for a surplus, with virtually all of the world's major crude traders foreseeing a global glut next year after producers in and outside OPEC+ increased supplies. Still, the intensifying geopolitical flareups have helped keep a floor under prices.

In Africa, President Donald Trump said that the US launched a "powerful and deadly strike against ISIS terrorist" in Northwest Nigeria, according to a social-media post. The country, an OPEC member, produced about 1.5 million barrels a day in November, according to data from the cartel.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth threatened there would be "more to come" if Islamic State did not stop going after "innocent Christians in Nigeria (and elsewhere)". The White House did not respond to a request for more details on the strike, including those impacted or the weaponry used.

In Europe, meanwhile, Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said Thursday he had "a very good conversation" with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, with an aim toward ending Russia's war. Among military moves, Kyiv attacked the Novoshakhtinsk refinery in the southern Rostov region.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

Tokyo's inflation cooled more than expected, as pressures from food and energy prices faded, but is unlikely to deter the Bank of Japan from further rate hikes.

Consumer prices excluding fresh food in the capital rose 2.3% in December from a year earlier, slowing sharply from 2.8% in the previous month, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications Friday. The deceleration was the first time since August, and largely reflected softer food price gains and falls in energy costs. Economists had expected the reading to slow to 2.5%.

The overall inflation gauge slowed to 2% from 2.7% in the previous year, while a deeper measure that strips out energy decelerated to 2.6%. Tokyo's data serve as a leading indicator for nationwide inflation trends.

Friday's release comes as markets scrutinize Japan's price trajectory to gauge the timing of the next policy move. Last week the BOJ's board voted unanimously to lift the policy rate to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995. Governor Kazuo Ueda said at the post-decision briefing that further tightening would follow if the price outlook materializes, while refraining from specifying the pace or terminal rate level.

Although the headline figure slowed sharply, it remained above the BOJ's 2% target, keeping the BOJ on track for further policy tightening. The outcome also broadly aligns with the central bank's baseline view that price pressures will gradually ease. In its latest policy statement, the bank said inflation is expected to meet the bank's target in the latter half of its projection period through fiscal year 2027.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the BOJ to raise rates roughly every six months, with the terminal rate seen at around 1.25%. That means analysts expect roughly two more hikes from the central bank during this cycle.

Despite Ueda signaling that more rate hikes are likely along with a narrowing interest rate gap with the US, the yen has remained weak. The currency has been hovering near its softest level against the dollar since January, potentially pushing up import costs that feed into domestic prices. The recent slide prompted Japanese officials to issue strong warnings that they stand ready to step into foreign exchange markets if needed.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

The United States carried out an airstrike against Islamic State militants in northwest Nigeria at the request of Nigeria's government, U.S. President Donald Trump and the U.S. military said on Thursday, claiming the group had been targeting Christians in the region.

"Tonight, at my direction as Commander in Chief, the United States launched a powerful and deadly strike against ISIS Terrorist Scum in Northwest Nigeria, who have been targeting and viciously killing, primarily, innocent Christians, at levels not seen for many years, and even Centuries!," Trump said in a post on Truth Social.

The U.S. military's Africa Command said on X the strike was conducted at the request of Nigerian authorities and killed multiple ISIS militants.

The strike comes after Trump starting in late October began warning that Christianity faces an "existential threat" in Nigeria and threatened to militarily intervene in the West African country over what he says is its failure to stop violence targeting Christian communities.

Reuters reported on Monday the U.S. had been conducting intelligence-gathering flights over large parts of Nigeria since late November.

Nigeria's government has said armed groups target both Muslims and Christians, and U.S. claims that Christians face persecution do not represent a complex security situation and ignore efforts to safeguard religious freedom. But it has agreed to work with the U.S. to bolster its forces against militant groups.

The country's population is split between Muslims living primarily in the north and Christians in the south.

The president issued his statement on Christmas Day while he was at his Palm Beach, Florida, Mar-a-Lago Club, where he has been spending the holiday. He had no public events during the day and was last seen by the reporters traveling with him on Wednesday night.

Source: Reuters

Malaysia's former Prime Minister Najib Razak, jailed for corruption in the multibillion-dollar 1MDB scandal, attends the verdict of his house arrest bid at Kuala Lumpur Courts Complex in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia December 22, 2025. REUTERS/ Hasnoor Hussain

Jailed former Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak will hear a verdict on Friday in the biggest trial he faces over the multibillion-dollar 1MDB scandal, a ruling that could risk deepening tensions within the administration of current premier Anwar Ibrahim.

Investigators have said about $4.5 billion was allegedly stolen from 1Malaysia Development Berhad, a state fund co-founded by Najib in 2009, and that more than $1 billion allegedly made its way into his personal bank accounts.

Najib, 72, last year apologised for mishandling the scandal while in office but he has consistently denied wrongdoing, saying he was misled by 1MDB officials and a fugitive financier, Jho Low, on the source of the funds.

In 2020, Najib was convicted of graft and money laundering for illegally receiving funds from a 1MDB unit and began a 12-year prison sentence two years later after losing all his appeals. That sentence was later halved by a pardons board chaired by Malaysia's king, with Najib due for release in 2028.

A Malaysian high court will decide on Friday whether to convict Najib of four more charges of corruption and 21 counts of money laundering involving the illegal transfer of about 2.2 billion ringgit ($539 million) from 1MDB.

If found guilty, he could face maximum jail terms of between 15 and 20 years on each charge, as well as a fine of up to five times the value of the alleged misappropriations.

The implementation of the penalties, however, could be stayed pending further appeals.

VERDICTS TEST GOVERNMENT STABILITY

The decision will be closely watched after another court this week dismissed a bid by Najib to serve the remainder of his sentence under house arrest.

That ruling reignited tensions in Anwar's ruling administration, which includes Najib's party, the United Malays National Organisation.

UMNO campaigned against Anwar in a 2022 election but joined his coalition to form a government after the poll ended in a hung parliament.

Several UMNO leaders expressed disappointment with the decision to deny Najib house arrest, saying it risked diluting the powers of Malaysia's rulers, while others were angered by social media posts by some members of Anwar's coalition celebrating the ruling.

Anwar this week called for all parties to handle news of the verdict with patience and wisdom, adding that it was "inappropriate to muddy the atmosphere or add tension" even if there were those who chose not to sympathize with Najib and his family.

A guilty verdict for Najib on Friday could strain ties further, with some UMNO leaders already calling for the party to review its pact with Anwar or withdraw from the government altogether. An acquittal, however, may weaken Anwar, who has been under pressure to uphold his credentials as an anti-graft campaigner.

Anwar has been accused by critics of betraying progressive voters and allies after prosecutors dropped some corruption charges against Najib and other UMNO figures. The premier has repeatedly said he does not interfere in court cases.

Source: Reuters

On Dec. 26, the largest expiration of Bitcoin options in history by "notional value" will take place.

Tomorrow will likely be boring and choppy because big institutions are forcing the price to stay still to maximize their profits on expiring contracts.

However, once that event is over and January begins, an explosive move upward could take place if there is no major bad news affecting the top crypto.

Massive expiry event

Roughly $23.7 billion in BTC options are expiring. When you add Ethereumand others, the total is around $28 billion.

Options are contracts that give traders the right to buy (calls) or sell (puts) Bitcoin at a specific price by a certain date. When these contracts expire, they must be settled.

A $28 billion expiration means massive amounts of capital are tied up in these bets. Markets have to "hedge" their positions to avoid losing money.

Market makers (MMs) generally write (sell) the options that retail traders buy. MMs profit most when the options expire worthless. The price point where the most options expire worthless is called the "max pain" price.

MMs buy BTC when the price drops and sell BTC when the price rises to keep the market neutral. This makes it possible to manage risks.

This constant buying-low and selling-high by MMs creates a "suppressive" force. It keeps the price strictly range-bound.

"Uncolining spring"

Once the expiration moment passes (usually 8:00 AM UTC on Fridays), the MMs no longer need to hedge these positions. The "suppressive weight" is lifted. This usually leads to a return of volatility.

Before a possible move up, the market could drop briefly to "hunt liquidity." Algorithms push the price down to trigger "stop-loss" orders from nervous traders.

Historically, January sees an inflow of money, which is bullish for BTC.

A drop is considered unlikely since expirations are neutral-to-bullish (as a rule).

That said, "thin" markets are easier to manipulate. A relatively small order can move the price significantly because there are fewer buyers/sellers to absorb it.

Source: TradingView

The increase in the Tokyo core consumer price index, which excludes volatile costs of fresh food, compared with a median market forecast for a 2.5% rise. It slowed from a 2.8% increase in November, due largely to a fall in utility bills.

A separate index for Tokyo that strips away both fresh food and fuel costs - closely watched by the Bank of Japan as a measure of demand-driven prices - rose 2.6% in December from a year earlier after a 2.8% increase in November.

The data will be among the factors the BOJ will scrutinise at its next policy meeting on January 22 and 23, when the board issues fresh quarterly growth and inflation forecasts.

The BOJ raised interest rates last week to a 30-year high of 0.75%, taking another landmark step in ending decades of huge monetary support in a sign of its conviction Japan is progressing toward durably hitting its 2% inflation target.

With core inflation exceeding the BOJ's target for nearly four years, Governor Kazuo Ueda has signalled the BOJ's readiness to keep raising rates if the economy continues to improve, backed by solid wage gains.

Some analysts say the yen's recent declines could add to inflationary pressure through rising import costs, a point a few BOJ board members flagged at last week's policy meeting.

Source: Reuters