Global Investors Are Pouring More Money Into Climate Tech

Samantha Luan

Economic

Forex

Political

Summary:

Global investment in green technology for the first three quarters of the year has already surpassed all of 2024.

Global investment in green technology for the first three quarters of the year has already surpassed all of 2024. The fortunes of the sector have been in decline for three years, but explosive energy demand fueled by data centers has sparked a reversal.Private and public investors worldwide channeled as much as $56 billion into green businesses ranging from clean energy to storage and electric vehicles during the nine months ending in September, according to a new BloombergNEF report. By contrast, the climate tech industry snagged less than $51 billion in 2024.

The renewed interest is being driven by clean energy and power storage deals, and comes despite the Trump administration's backpedaling on climate policy. Major deals include Chinese battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd., which raised about $5 billion from its Hong Kong initial public offering in May. The country’s electric car maker BYD Co. also raised $5.2 billion in share sales in March, while Spanish renewable energy giant Iberdrola SA sold $5.9 billion worth of shares in July.Nuclear energy drew a fifth of all climate venture capital funding, in a large part \$863 million raise by Commonwealth Fusion, which drew funding from Nvidia Corp.’s venture arm.

Institutional investors are reupping their interest in the sector, particularly around climate tech that can also improve energy independence and help address national security. In early October, Brookfield Asset Management said it raised $20 billion to fund the clean-energy transition. Earlier this week, JPMorgan Chase & Co. announced it will put as much as $10 billion in direct equity and venture capital investment as part of a $1.5 trillion initiative for what it’s deemed critical industries that batteries, nuclear and solar technology.The US will struggle to generate the energy it needs to power tech industry growth without including wind and solar, according to Chuka Umunna, JPMorgan’s global head of sustainable solutions.

“It’s difficult to conceive of a situation in which they won’t need to tap into those sources of energy,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Tuesday.Those new funds come as clean energy stocks outperform major equity indexes.But it remains to be seen whether the uptick will continue into 2026, Mishi added. She expects Trump's assault on renewable energy projects will weigh on investors' confidence. BNEF projects VC investment — which makes up a portion of the climate funding the group tracks — to stand at around $25 billion by the end of 2025, compared to last year's $31.7 billion.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Adam

Forex

Stocks

On Tuesday morning, Bloomberg featured an article entitled The Great Debasement Is Rippling Across Markets. From the start of the year until its low in the middle of September, the US Dollar Index fell by nearly 15%. The weak dollar seems to fuel the debasement narrative, benefiting a few asset classes. The most obvious assets benefiting are the precious metals, with gold and silver up 50% and 75% year to date, respectively. Not in the “debasement limelight” like gold and silver, but also outperforming are foreign stocks. The negative correlation of foreign stocks and the dollar has proven robust this year.

To wit, the iShares Foreign Developed Markets (NYSE:EFA) (EFA) and Emerging Markets (NYSE:EEM) (EEM) ETFs have risen by 25% and 29% respectively, year to date. For context, the S&P 500 is up about 15%. Bear in mind that over the last five years, domestic markets have significantly outperformed foreign markets. Over the last five years, the S&P 500 has been up 95%, compared to 43% for EFA and 17% for EEM.

This leads to an important question: if the dollar reverses higher, will the negative correlation weigh on foreign stocks? Our bet is yes. In other words, enjoy the rally in foreign stocks, but don’t lose sight of the fact that fundamentals do not support the trade. Importantly, dollar correlation works both ways. The graphs below show the strong negative correlation of EEM and EFA to the dollar. The price axis of the two ETS is in reverse order to better highlight the relationship. The bottom graph in both graphs is the 50-day correlation.

We leave you with a counterpoint of the debasement narrative from the Bloomberg article:

“Whoever thinks currencies and bonds are replaceable with bitcoin and gold needs a reality check,” said Shoki Omori, Tokyo-based chief desk strategist at Mizuho Securities Co., one of Japan’s biggest brokerages.

Omori thinks markets are just witnessing a “momentum trade,” in which more and more investors pile into a seemingly winning trade regardless of fundamentals.

US Dollar Correlation and Implications for Foreign Stock Indexes_1

JPM: Good Earnings But…

JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) (JPM) posted a solid earnings report, but based on its stock price, shareholders are not optimistic. JPM opened down by over 4% despite its EPS beating estimates by 5% and revenues by 3%. Here are a few reasons why JPM shares are trading lower.

Rising operational costs and credit concerns: Investors seem to be expressing caution about increasing expenses and credit costs. In turn, rising expenses and loan losses raise the question of how sustainable its profit margins are.

Profit taking and Wall Street analyst downgrades: Some banks and brokerages downgraded their ratings. For example, Oppenheimer cut JPMorgan from “outperform” to “market perform”, and Morgan Stanley downgraded it from “overweight” to “equal weight.” After the stock’s 30% year-to-date gain and nearly 40% increase over the past 12 months, investors may be taking profits on the news.

Economic outlook: While the company beat earnings expectations and had a reasonably optimistic outlook, its CEO, Jamie Dimon, does offer a cloudy macroeconomic outlook. Per Jamie Dimon:

While there have been some signs of a softening, particularly in job growth, the U.S. economy generally remained resilient. However, there continues to be a heightened degree of uncertainty…

Source: investing

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Adam

Commodity

Despite the risk of some near-term volatility and potential consolidation, gold and silver remain in unstoppable uptrends as Bank of America expects prices to reach $5,000 and $65 an ounce, respectively, next year.

The bank forecasts gold prices will average around $4,438 an ounce for the year, with silver averaging $56.25 an ounce.

Bank of America was among the first institutions to highlight gold’s path to $4,000, and now that this target has been achieved, the analysts have set their sights higher.

“The White House's unorthodox policy framework should remain supportive for gold, given fiscal deficits, rising debt, intentions to reduce the current account deficit and capital inflows, along with a push to cut rates with inflation around 3%,” the analysts said.

The precious metals team led by Michael Widmer said it expects a 14% increase in investment demand to drive gold prices to $5,000 an ounce. They also see a potential path to $6,000.

“For a rally to $6,000/oz, investors need to increase their purchases by 28% — not impossible, but a tall order,” the analysts said.

Although BofA remains bullish on both gold and silver, the analysts noted an elevated risk of consolidation.

“ETF purchases rose by 880% year-over-year in September to an all-time high of USD 14 billion; similarly, total physical and paper gold investment almost doubled to above 5% of global equity and fixed income markets,” the analysts said. “As such, we believe that markets could consolidate in the near term.”

Along with gold, the commodity analysts see solid potential for silver, even as overall demand continues to weaken.

“Although we expect an 11% decline in silver demand next year, we still anticipate another deficit, which should support the white metal,” the analysts said.

They added that the primary risk for silver lies in shifting demand within the solar power sector. BofA expects silver consumption in photovoltaic solar panels to peak next year.

Source: kitco

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Daniel Carter

Economic

Political

The International Monetary Fund has urged UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves not to scrap one of the two official forecasts made each year, despite concerns in the Treasury that the current arrangement has become destabilizing.

Vitor Gaspar, director of the fiscal affairs department at the world economic watchdog, told reporters in Washington Wednesday that “forecasting should take place twice in year in keeping with best international practice.”

The comments put the IMF at odds with Reeves, who has been considering getting rid of the Office for Budget Responsibility's spring forecast. She argues the current system fuels a cycle of speculation over tax and spending that is bad for business investment and the economy.

The IMF has urged the UK to set fiscal policy just once year, rather than each time the OBR produces a projection. However, Reeves said last month that “we do need to change the way that the OBR do their forecasting and two full forecasts a year make it harder to have that one fiscal event.”

The debate centers on her self-imposed rules to keep borrowing in check, with the OBR acting as the arbiter on whether she's meeting them in forecasts in the spring and autumn. Reeves' historically small £9.9 billion ($13.2 billion) margin for error has twice been wiped out, raising the prospect of another round of painful tax rises and spending cuts to restore her headroom in the budget on Nov. 26.

Gaspar said: “Our view is that the cycle of budget decisions in the United Kingdom should emphasize yearly frequency, the evaluation of compliance with fiscal rule should be annual as well.” But he stressed that there should still be two forecasts.

In reference to changing the current twice-yearly OBR forecast arrangement, Reeves said last month there “are different ways you could do it, you could do a shorter term forecast, you could do a forecast that just looks at the changes in the economy over that period of time.”

The IMF was more supportive of the government's broader fiscal position. Gaspar said the UK's plans for gradual fiscal stabilization “strike a good balance between providing favorable conditions for growth and the emphasis on public investment is welcome in that regard, and in safeguarding fiscal sustainability.”

“The public debt to GDP ratio will stabilize in the UK, albeit at a high level of 105.5% of GDP. We see the UK as a country that benefits from liquid and deep bond markets with a diversified investor base, which is a signal of robustness.”

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Adam

Economic

Jay Powell’s latest comments in Philadelphia confirm what investors have long suspected: the Federal Reserve is once again behind the curve.

The central bank is now signaling that another rate cut is coming before the month is out, and it feels uncomfortably like déjà vu.

Powell acknowledged this week that “downside risks to employment have risen,” an admission that the US labor market is finally bending under pressure.

Hiring is slowing, job openings are shrinking, and households’ confidence about finding work is slipping. ADP’s latest data show that US companies shed 32,000 jobs in September. It’s a sobering figure for an economy that only a year ago was hailed as unstoppable.

Markets were quick to react. The S&P 500 recovered from early losses to close 0.3% higher in New York, as traders moved to price in another quarter-point cut at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on October 28–29.

It would be the second consecutive reduction after last month’s move to bring the federal funds rate down to 4–4.25%, ending the longest pause in easing since 2019.

Powell’s words matter because they point to a familiar pattern. He has been late at almost every major turning point of his tenure. In 2018, the Fed raised rates too far for too long, only to reverse course months later when markets slumped.

In 2021, officials insisted inflation would prove “transitory” even as prices surged, forcing an eventual policy overcorrection that became the most aggressive tightening cycle in four decades. Now, in 2025, the Fed is once again lagging behind a rapidly changing economy.

It is as though the central bank waits until the evidence is overwhelming before acting, and by that point, the economy has already lost momentum. Powell is reacting to conditions that markets, businesses, and investors have been signaling for months.

It is particularly striking that these signs of weakness have emerged under a self-proclaimed business-friendly administration. After four years of steady expansion, tens of thousands of jobs are now being lost every month.

Tariffs, higher borrowing costs, and political unpredictability have combined to stall hiring and dent confidence. Small businesses are struggling with tighter financing and rising input costs. Consumer sentiment is weakening—the American labor market, once the envy of the world, is showing strain.

Powell’s shift in tone—from inflation vigilance to employment anxiety—marks a new phase. The narrative has flipped. The Fed now faces the opposite problem: an economy slowing faster than policy can adjust. Every delay reduces the effectiveness of its eventual response.

This latest pivot underlines a broader truth about monetary policy in this cycle: it has been consistently reactive.

Markets move first, then the Fed follows. That undermines confidence. Investors crave clarity and leadership from the central bank. Instead, they are left interpreting speeches for hints of hesitation or fear.

The immediate challenge for Powell is credibility. Each late response chips away at trust. The Fed’s mandate requires balancing full employment and price stability, yet it has repeatedly underestimated the speed at which either can deteriorate. When policy misjudgment becomes habitual, the cost of restoring equilibrium rises each time.

Yet within that uncertainty, opportunity emerges. When rates begin to fall again, liquidity returns to the system, and capital starts seeking yield. The next phase of this market cycle will reward those who act early and position intelligently.

Lower yields tend to favour high-quality equities, particularly those with solid balance sheets, strong cash flow, and exposure to technology, infrastructure, and innovation. Global diversification also becomes more attractive as the dollar adjusts to shifting rate expectations.

This is not the time to sit still. Investors who anticipate the policy turn, rather than waiting for confirmation, will define the next growth wave. The easing cycle that is about to begin will not be smooth, but it will open new avenues for returns in sectors that thrive on lower financing costs and renewed risk appetite.

Of course, rate cuts alone cannot fix deeper structural problems. Tariff policy, fiscal expansion, and domestic political uncertainty continue to weigh on corporate decision-making. The Fed can cushion the impact, but it cannot rebuild confidence on its own. Monetary policy can buy time. It cannot buy stability.

Still, as a new round of rate reductions approaches, investors must decide whether to treat them as a warning or an opportunity. I believe the latter.

Policy lags, but markets anticipate. While the Fed once again plays catch-up, those who read the cycle correctly and position early will be the ones who gain the most.

Powell has a chance later this month to show that he can finally lead rather than follow. Whether he seizes it will determine not just the trajectory of the US economy, but the confidence of investors worldwide.

Source: investing

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Damon

Economic

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposed a longer pause on high US tariffs on Chinese goods in return for Beijing putting off its recently announced plan to tighten limits on critical rare earths.

Since earlier this year, the US and China have agreed to 90-day truces on import duties of as high as 145%, with the next deadline looming in November. Now, the Trump administration’s focus is halting the Chinese plan for strict new export controls on rare-earth elements, in part by dangling incentives for the government to drop it and threatening sharp penalties if it doesn’t.

“Is it possible that we could go to a longer roll in return? Perhaps. But all that’s going to be negotiated in the coming weeks,” Bessent said Wednesday during a press conference in Washington.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer cast doubt that Beijing would go ahead with the plan, which he said would choke off trade in a wide variety of consumer products that contain even a trace of rare earths.

“The scope and the scale is just unimaginable, and it cannot be implemented,” Greer said.

US-listed rare earth stocks, including Critical Metals Corp., USA Rare Earth Inc. and MP Materials Corp., fell after Bessent’s comments.

In the meantime, Bessent predicted a coordinated response to China’s move from the US and several allies.

“We’re going to have a fulsome, group response to this, because bureaucrats in China cannot manage the supply chain or the manufacturing process for the rest of the world,” Bessent said earlier Wednesday at a CNBC-hosted forum in Washington.

Pointing out that “all my counterparts” are in Washington for the annual gathering of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank this week, he said, “We’re going to be speaking with our European allies, with Australia, with Canada, with India and the Asian democracies.”

An escalating tit-for-tat between Washington and Beijing has renewed investors’ fears that world’s two largest economies could soon be locked in a full-blown trade war.

China’s new rules, announced last week, require overseas firms to obtain Chinese government approval before exporting products containing even trace amounts of certain rare earths that originated in China.

President Donald Trump responded by threatening to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods by Nov. 1, potentially scrapping a planned meeting with President Xi Jinping and to cut off trade in cooking oil, a key input in biofuels.

The Treasury chief also said that as far as he’s aware, Trump “is a go” on meeting Xi later this month in South Korea. Bessent said there’s a “very good chance” that he travels to Asia before Trump and meets with his Chinese counterpart, Vice Premier He Lifeng.

Bessent said he expected trade announcements being made during Trump’s Asia tour. The president is expected to attend a summit with Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Malaysia before going on to Japan and South Korea, which will be hosting the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders meeting.

The US is “about to finish up” negotiations with South Korea, Bessent added. Those talks have lately revolved around the contours of a giant investment program. US-Canada talks are “back on track,” Bessent also said. He also indicated progress with India.

Bessent dismissed the notion that a slide in the stock market would force the Trump administration into a negotiating position with Beijing, saying that what spurs such talks is instead the economic interest of the nation. The US won’t negotiate with China “because the stock market is going down,” he said.

He also rejected the idea that the rising price of gold reflects some fundamental concern with regard to the dollar. He flagged that US interest rates have come down relative to other economies, and said with regard to the euro that it “should be strong,” given how currency theory would suggest exchange-rate appreciation when fiscal expansion is underway.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Samantha Luan

Economic

Forex

Political

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

At least five oil storage tanks were hit at Russia’s Feodosia oil depot.

The Ukrainian military and intelligence services once again struck deep behind Russian lines to target a major oil terminal and power facilities in Russian-occupied Crimea.Using suicide drones, Ukrainian special operators and intelligence officers targeted and destroyed a large oil depot and power substations in Feodosia.

Suicide Drone Attacks

At least five oil storage tanks were hit at the Feodosia oil depot as massive columns of fire and smoke that could be seen from miles engulfed the facility. Moreover, several power substations linking Russia with occupied Crimea suffered damage.

The Ukrainian military intelligence agency (SBU) and the Ukrainian military’s special operations forces conducted the attack.

This is not the first time the Ukrainian forces have targeted and struck the Feodosia oil depot. Last week, a day before the birthday of Russian president Vladimir Putin, the Ukrainians targeted the oil facility with suicide drones.“The SBU continues to systematically reduce the military, logistical, and economic capacity of the enemy to wage war against Ukraine. Our technical capabilities allow us to stage strikes both in temporarily occupied territories and deep in Russian rear areas,” an SBU source told the Ukrainian news outlet Kyiv Post.

Recent reports suggest that the United States has been facilitating the Ukrainian drone and missile campaign against energy and economic targets within Russia. On Sunday, the Financial Times reported that for months, the United States has been helping Ukraine identify and target key energy infrastructure inside Russia and in occupied Ukraine as part of a campaign aimed at Moscow’s economy. According to US and Ukrainian officials who spoke with the Financial Times, the United States has been helping the Ukrainian military and intelligence services with route planning, altitude, timing, and mission decisions.

Long-Range Fires Restrictions

The recent strike against the Feodosia oil depot and power substations is part of a sustained, long-range fires campaign by the Ukrainian forces against Russia. The Ukrainian military and intelligence services use suicide drones and missiles to hit military and military-related targets inside Russia.Although the Ukrainian military has received robust long-range fires capabilities as part of the US-led security assistance campaign, the weapon systems come with certain limitations as to their use.

For example, the US military has transferred a number of MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) to Ukraine. These tactical ballistic missiles can reach targets up to 300 miles and can hit military targets within Russia. However, the United States has restricted the Ukrainians from using the ATACMS against targets in Russia—with the exception of the Kursk Oblast during the recent fighting there—out of fear of escalation.

Similarly, the Ukrainians possess a number of Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG air-launched cruise missiles. These munitions can be paired with the Ukrainian Air Force’s F-16 Fighting Falcons or Dassault Mirage 2000s and strike targets deep inside Russia. However, once more, Kyiv has agreed to restrict its use of the cruise missiles against targets in occupied Ukraine, including the Crimean Peninsula.Despite these limitations, the Ukrainians have displayed enviable technological ingenuity and operational cunning, using their limited means to hit high-value targets hundreds and thousands of miles inside Russia.