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SYMBOL
LAST
BID
ASK
HIGH
LOW
NET CHG.
%CHG.
SPREAD
SPX
S&P 500 Index
6940.00
6940.00
6940.00
6967.31
6925.10
-4.47
-0.06%
--
DJI
Dow Jones Industrial Average
49359.32
49359.32
49359.32
49616.70
49246.24
-83.11
-0.17%
--
IXIC
NASDAQ Composite Index
23515.38
23515.38
23515.38
23664.26
23446.81
-14.63
-0.06%
--
USDX
US Dollar Index
98.960
99.040
98.960
99.230
98.830
-0.190
-0.19%
--
EURUSD
Euro / US Dollar
1.16204
1.16211
1.16204
1.16376
1.15775
+0.00226
+ 0.19%
--
GBPUSD
Pound Sterling / US Dollar
1.33873
1.33884
1.33873
1.34083
1.33409
+0.00108
+ 0.08%
--
XAUUSD
Gold / US Dollar
4664.28
4664.73
4664.28
4690.58
4621.05
+67.85
+ 1.48%
--
WTI
Light Sweet Crude Oil
59.362
59.397
59.362
59.404
58.682
+0.167
+ 0.28%
--

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Fitch - China's Stimulus Stabilises Markets But Unlikely To Revive Property Demand

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New Zealand's A2 Milk Slumps 14% On Reports Of Steep Drop In China Birth Rate

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China Stats Bureau Head: Expects China's Consumption To Grow Steadily In 2026 As Policy Support Gains Traction

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China Stats Bureau Head: Net Exports Accounted For 31.1% Of Q4 GDP Growth

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China Stats Bureau Head: Final Consumption Accounted For 52.9% Of Q4 GDP Growth

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China Stats Bureau Head: China Able To Maintain Stable, Sound Growth Momentum This Year

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China Stats Bureau Head: China's Economy Faces Problems And Challenges, Including Strong Supply And Weak Demand

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China Stats Bureau Head: China's Contribution To Global Growth Expected To Be Around 30% In 2025

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China Stats Bureau Head: China's Economic Development In 2025 'Hard Won'

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Most Active Dalian Iron Ore Contract Falls As Much As 3% To 790 Yuan/Metric Ton

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Indonesia's Rupiah Slips To 16905 Per USA Dollar For The First Time Since Early April 2025

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GDP Growth Rate Year On Year For Q4 In China Is 4.5%, Lower Than The Previous Value Of 4.8%. The Forecast Was 4.4%

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Indonesia's Benchmark Stock Index Inches Higher In Early Trade To A Record 9109.037 Points

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Onshore Yuan Little Changed After China GDP Data, Last At 6.9642 Per Dollar

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Yield On 5-Year Japanese Government Bond Rises 3.5 Basis Points To 1.675%

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Aussie Dollar Little Changed After China GDP Data, Last Down 0.12%

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[Bitcoin Withdrawal Sentiment Continues, With Cex Net Outflow Of 1,729.96 Btc In The Last 24 Hours] January 19Th, According To Coinglass Data, In The Past 24 Hours, The Total Net Outflow Of Btc From Cexs Was 1,729.96 Btc. The Top Three Cexs By Outflow Are As Follows:· Kraken, Outflow Of 2,394.43 Btc;· Bybit, Outflow Of 395.37 Btc;· Bitfinex, Outflow Of 62.33 Btc.In Addition, Binance Saw An Inflow Of 793.77 Btc, Ranking First In The Inflow List

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China's 2025 Death Rate At 8.04 Deaths Per 1000 People Versus 7.76 Deaths Per 1000 People In 2024

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China 2025 Private Sector Fixed-Asset Investment -6.4% Year-On-Year

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China 2025 Infrastructure Investment -2.2% Year-On-Year

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Q&A with Experts
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    Visxa Benfica flag
    @just BrendonSo, your buy order was placed professionally like that, it's spot on, bro
    Visxa Benfica flag
    @just BrendonFor me, the way you execute cleanly, avoid FOMO, wait for the setup to be clear before entering and gradually closing the target is what makes you a true pro
    just Brendon flag
    Visxa Benfica
    @just BrendonYeah, I think Gold is on an all-time high streak
    @Visxa Benficayes
    just Brendon flag
    Visxa Benfica
    @just BrendonFor me, the way you execute cleanly, avoid FOMO, wait for the setup to be clear before entering and gradually closing the target is what makes you a true pro
    @Visxa Benficathanks 🙏
    Visxa Benfica flag
    @just BrendonI prefer this approach to holding indefinitely and then reversing and taking a killing
    Visxa Benfica flag
    @just BrendonBut I'm also a little worried, because gold has soared too high
    pixar flag
    ws good
    john flag
    Visxa Benfica
    @just BrendonBut I'm also a little worried, because gold has soared too high
    @Visxa Benficait's what it is,,,gold has been doing this
    john flag
    john flag
    john
    I saw this short coming on btc yesterday
    just Brendon flag
    just Brendon
    xauusd Buy 4658/4656 target 4661 target 4664 target 4670 stop loss 4650
    ohhh it's coming Last Target Woohoo +100 Pip's Hit 4668 smashed Pro Entry Clean Execution ❤️‍🔥🔥
    just Brendon flag
    just Brendon flag
    just Brendon
    close half Set BE
    john flag
    just Brendon
    @just Brendongold is now headed towards 4700
    john flag
    just Brendon
    @just Brendonyou have a good start for the week
    just Brendon flag
    john
    @johnthanks 👍
    john flag
    this one of the reason why btc is sliding
    john flag
    john flag
    just Brendon
    @just BrendonI am holding longs since last week and now I look forward to 4700
    john flag
    Type here...
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          Global CEOs’ Top Strategic Concerns Heading Into 2026

          Gerik

          Economic

          Summary:

          As 2026 approaches, global CEOs are increasingly focused on economic risks, with recession fears dominating worldwide sentiment, while US executives place greater emphasis on economic uncertainty, labor costs...

          Diverging Risk Perceptions Between The US And The Rest Of The World

          Entering 2026, business leaders around the world share a heightened sense of caution, yet their priorities differ markedly by region. According to the latest survey released by The Conference Board, which gathered responses from more than 1,700 CEOs across North America, Europe, and Asia, executives in the United States and their global peers are interpreting economic risks through different lenses.
          In the United States, 43% of CEOs ranked economic uncertainty as the most serious threat for 2026, placing it ahead of recession concerns, which were cited by 35%. Globally, the pattern is reversed. Economic recession emerged as the primary concern for 36% of CEOs worldwide, while economic uncertainty followed at 29%. This contrast highlights how regional economic conditions and policy environments shape executive sentiment, rather than reflecting a uniform global outlook.

          Pressure On Profitability And Business Model Transformation

          Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, noted that CEOs are facing a convergence of pressures that are weighing on profitability and growth expectations. At the same time, these pressures are closely linked with an acceleration in business model transformation. Rather than reacting defensively, many executives are using the current environment as a trigger to rethink how their organizations operate.
          In the United States, 60% of CEOs identified changes to business models as their top priority for improving profitability. This emphasis suggests that margin pressure is not being viewed as a temporary fluctuation but as a structural challenge that requires strategic adjustment rather than short-term cost control alone.

          Labor Market Tensions And Wage Expectations

          Despite signs of cooling in the labor market, US workers continue to retain significant bargaining power over compensation. Around 27% of US CEOs cited rising wage expectations as a key recruitment challenge. This figure stands noticeably higher than in Asia, at 19%, and Europe, at 15%.
          The persistence of wage pressure appears closely linked with tight labor conditions in specific sectors rather than overall employment levels. This relationship reflects an alignment between skill shortages and compensation expectations, rather than a generalized labor shortage across the economy.

          Artificial Intelligence And The Question Of Returns

          Artificial intelligence remains a central theme in executive decision-making, though enthusiasm is increasingly tempered by concerns over measurable outcomes. For 2026, the primary AI-related concern among CEOs is the ability to assess investment effectiveness. In the United States, 46% of CEOs emphasized the need to improve data quality and availability to better measure AI return on investment, compared with 33% globally.
          Notably, US CEOs also expressed greater skepticism about AI’s near-term impact. About 38% believe AI will negatively affect their companies in the coming year, citing social, demographic, and technological disruptions. Among global CEOs, this figure stands at 30%. This outlook reflects an association between rapid AI deployment and organizational disruption, rather than a rejection of AI as a long-term growth driver.

          Workforce Reductions And Structural Shifts Linked To AI

          Concerns around AI are reinforced by findings from a separate study conducted by recruitment firm LHH, part of the Adecco Group. Surveying 2,000 senior managers across 13 countries, including the US, Canada, Japan, and major European economies, the study found that 46% of companies have already reduced headcount as AI adoption has advanced. A further 54% expect to require fewer employees over the next five years.
          According to Michaël Chambon, Head of Career Transformation at LHH France, AI is reshaping labor market dynamics at a fundamental level. He also warned that many workers continue to underestimate the scale of change AI may bring to required skills and long-term career paths. The alignment between AI deployment and workforce restructuring reflects a direct organizational response to productivity shifts rather than short-term cyclical adjustments.

          Corporate Bankruptcies And A Tough Operating Environment

          The broader economic backdrop has added to executive anxiety, particularly in the United States. Corporate bankruptcies in 2025 reached their highest level since the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis. Data from S&P Global Market Intelligence show that at least 717 US companies filed for bankruptcy protection by the end of November 2025, representing a 14% increase year on year and the highest total since 2010.
          High-profile bankruptcies have spanned multiple sectors, including pharmacy chain Rite Aid, genetic testing company 23andMe, casual dining brand Hooters, and low-cost carrier Spirit Airlines. The breadth of affected industries indicates that financial stress is widespread rather than concentrated, reflecting prolonged inflation, elevated interest rates, and a rigid tariff environment.

          Cybersecurity And Geopolitical Risk Awareness

          Cyberattacks were identified as the leading geopolitical risk, with 54% of US CEOs and 47% of global CEOs ranking them as a top concern. Other geopolitical risks, including political instability and armed conflict, followed closely.
          Perceptions of conflict risk vary significantly by region. While conflict is not a primary concern for US CEOs, executives in Japan ranked Asia-Pacific conflict as their top geopolitical risk. In Europe, conflict on the continent was ranked third. These differences reflect regional exposure and strategic priorities rather than a shared global assessment of geopolitical threats.

          Preferred Markets For Expansion Despite Uncertainty

          Despite widespread concern, executives continue to identify opportunities for growth. The United States and Canada remain the most favored regions for market expansion, with 53% of survey respondents selecting them as priority destinations. This preference suggests that, even amid uncertainty and risk, North America is still viewed as offering relative stability, scale, and long-term growth potential.
          Overall, the survey reveals a complex executive mindset heading into 2026. CEOs are balancing heightened economic and technological risks with a strong push toward strategic reinvention, underscoring a shift from short-term caution to longer-term structural adaptation.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Azerbaijan And Kazakhstan Expand Energy Supplies To Europe

          Gerik

          Commodity

          Economic

          Azerbaijan’s Gas Deliveries Enter A New Phase

          Azerbaijan has officially begun supplying natural gas to Germany and Austria, marking a significant expansion in its presence within the European energy market. This development represents a further step in Europe’s broader effort to diversify energy sources following the Ukraine conflict and the resulting disruption to traditional supply routes.
          According to an announcement on January 16, the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic, Socar, is transporting gas via the Trans Adriatic Pipeline. This route runs from the Turkey Greece border through Greece and Albania, crosses the Adriatic Sea to Italy, and then continues northward into Central Europe. The use of this corridor underscores the strategic importance of Southern European transit infrastructure in reshaping Europe’s gas flows.
          Socar stated that deliveries routed through Italy to Germany and Austria have expanded Azerbaijan’s gas export footprint in Europe, raising the total number of European importing countries to 16. This expansion reflects a clear linkage between Europe’s diversification policy and Azerbaijan’s ambition to position itself as a long-term supplier rather than a marginal alternative.

          Long-Term Contracts And Supply Volumes

          The latest shipments follow a ten-year gas supply agreement signed in June 2025 between Socar and Germany’s energy company Sefe. Under the contract, Azerbaijan is set to deliver 1.5 billion cubic meters of gas per year to Germany. Austria is expected to receive up to approximately one billion cubic meters annually.
          In 2025, Azerbaijan exported a total of 12.8 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Europe. While this figure highlights steady growth, analysts note that further increases will depend on the expansion of pipeline capacity and additional investment in upstream and midstream energy projects. The relationship between export growth and infrastructure development is therefore conditional, as physical transport limits constrain supply regardless of contractual demand.

          Kazakhstan’s Rising Role In Europe’s Oil Supply

          Alongside Azerbaijan’s gas expansion, Kazakhstan is strengthening its position as an alternative oil supplier to Europe, particularly Germany. On January 16, Kazakhstan’s state-owned oil and gas company KazMunayGas announced plans to increase crude oil exports to Germany to around 2.5 million tonnes in 2026, up from 2.146 million tonnes in the previous year.
          Data from pipeline operator KazTransOil show that approximately 2.146 million tonnes of Kazakh oil were delivered to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline in 2025, representing a 44% increase compared with the year before. This growth is closely associated with Germany’s strategic decision to replace Russian oil supplies rather than with short-term market fluctuations.

          Strategic Importance For Germany’s Energy Security

          Kazakhstan’s role has become particularly significant for Germany’s Schwedt refinery in Brandenburg, which relies heavily on stable crude oil imports. Since Russia launched its military operation in Ukraine, Germany has accelerated efforts to diversify oil imports, with Kazakhstan emerging as a key partner in ensuring supply continuity.
          This shift illustrates a structural reorientation of Germany’s energy strategy, where long-term supply security has taken precedence over historical trade patterns. The growing involvement of both Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan reflects a broader realignment of Europe’s energy architecture, shaped by geopolitical considerations and reinforced through infrastructure and long-term contracts.
          Overall, the expanding energy ties with Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan highlight Europe’s ongoing transition toward a more diversified and resilient energy supply system, one that increasingly integrates producers from the Caspian region into its long-term planning.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
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          France Pushes EU Trade Weapon Against US Greenland Tariffs

          King Ten

          Remarks of Officials

          Economic

          Political

          France is calling on the European Union to deploy a powerful trade defense tool after U.S. President Donald Trump announced new tariffs tied to his demand for the purchase of Greenland.

          President Emmanuel Macron intends to ask the EU to activate its anti-coercion instrument in response to Trump's plan for a 10% tariff on goods from eight European countries, including France, effective February 1. Sources close to the French president confirmed the request, adding that Macron has been discussing the matter with other European leaders after calling the tariff threat "unacceptable."

          Trump Links New Tariffs to Greenland Purchase

          The escalating trade dispute hinges on an unusual condition. In a social media post, Trump stated the tariff rate would increase to 25% in June unless an agreement is reached for the "Complete and Total purchase of Greenland."

          This declaration has cast a shadow over existing trade relations between Washington and Brussels. According to a source familiar with Macron's thinking, linking tariffs to the Greenland issue calls into question a major trade agreement finalized between the EU and the U.S. last year.

          US-EU Trade Deal on the Brink of Collapse

          The transatlantic trade agreement, which has been partially implemented, now faces an uncertain future as it still requires parliamentary approval. Following Trump's announcement, that approval seems highly unlikely.

          Manfred Weber, leader of the European People's Party—the largest political group in the European Parliament—stated on Saturday that ratifying the EU-US trade deal is no longer feasible.

          EU ambassadors from member states are set to meet on Sunday to formulate the bloc's official response.

          European Leaders Rally for a Unified Response

          Across Europe, leaders are mobilizing to develop a coordinated strategy. Germany's SPD parliamentary group, part of Chancellor Friedrich Merz's governing coalition, has called on the European Commission to devise "concrete countermeasures" against the United States. While the German government is reportedly weighing all its options, it has not yet decided on a specific course of action.

          Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo warned that the EU "has the means to respond," though he hopes to avoid an escalation. Speaking to YLE radio, Orpo revealed he has requested an emergency European Council meeting to ensure European nations, alongside Denmark, present a united front.

          What is the EU's Anti-Coercion Instrument?

          The anti-coercion instrument is a powerful but so far unused tool in the EU's trade arsenal. It was designed to deter and counteract coercive economic measures by other countries attempting to influence EU policy.

          If activated, the EU could impose a range of countermeasures, including:

          • Introducing new tariffs or taxes on specific companies.

          • Imposing restrictions on investment within the EU.

          • Blocking businesses from bidding on public contracts.

          • Limiting access to certain sectors of the EU market.

          This is not the first time its use has been considered. Macron previously explored activating the tool during prolonged negotiations over other planned U.S. tariffs but ultimately decided against it.

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Trump Demands $1B Buy-In for Gaza 'Board of Peace' Seat

          King Ten

          Latest news on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

          Middle East Situation

          Political

          The Trump administration is reportedly asking nations to contribute at least $1 billion to secure a permanent seat on a proposed "Board of Peace" for the Gaza Strip, according to a report from Bloomberg.

          US allies and regional partners have been briefed on the plan, which is part of a broader diplomatic push to shape Gaza's future following the conflict between Israel and Hamas. The primary goal of the hefty financial requirement is to ensure participating countries have a substantial stake in stabilizing the territory and funding its long-term redevelopment.

          The proposed Board of Peace aims to oversee the reconstruction of Gaza, which has seen extensive devastation from the conflict.

          Funding, Control, and International Concerns

          Washington's position is that spreading the financial burden is essential to prevent American taxpayers from covering the majority of reconstruction costs. This argument comes after years of the U.S. providing billions in weaponry and aid to Israel, which contributed to the destruction in Palestinian areas.

          A significant issue for potential partners has emerged from the initial proposal. According to officials familiar with the discussions, the draft suggests that President Trump would personally control the funds. This detail is considered a non-starter for most countries that might otherwise consider joining the board.

          Membership Rules and Board Charter

          The Times of Israel, which obtained a copy of the board's draft charter, outlined the specific terms for membership:

          • Standard Term: Member states serve a term of no more than three years, which can be renewed by the Chairman (Trump).

          • Permanent Seat: The three-year term limit does not apply to member states that contribute over $1 billion in cash within the first year.

          This structure effectively creates a pay-to-play system for a permanent role in overseeing Gaza's future.

          Who's on the Board? A Roster of Key Figures

          The White House has announced the "founding executive board" members, a group that blends political influence with financial expertise. The board, chaired by Trump, will oversee a Palestinian technocratic body called the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), led by former Palestinian Authority official Ali Abdel Hamid Shaath.

          The board's founding members include:

          • Marco Rubio, US Secretary of State

          • Steve Witkoff, Presidential Special Envoy

          • Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law

          • Tony Blair, former British Prime Minister

          • Marc Rowan, Private Equity Executive

          • Ajay Banga, World Bank President

          • Robert Gabriel, US National Security Adviser

          Figure 1: The appointment of former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair (left, with Donald Trump) to the Gaza board has drawn public criticism.

          Lingering Doubts Over Governance and Trust

          An anonymous official told Bloomberg that nearly every dollar raised would be used "to execute its mandate" of rebuilding and stabilizing Gaza.

          However, with Palestinian representation largely confined to the committee being overseen by the international board, many Gazans are expected to remain deeply skeptical of the US-controlled initiative. The structure raises immediate questions about local autonomy and whether the board will truly serve the interests of the people it is meant to help.

          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          Trump Hints Hassett to Stay, Shaking Up Fed Chair Race

          Kevin Morgan

          Remarks of Officials

          Economic

          Central Bank

          Political

          White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett’s potential candidacy for Federal Reserve Chair is now in doubt after President Donald Trump publicly indicated he prefers to keep Hassett in his current role.

          The President's reluctance complicates the search for a successor to current Fed Chair Jerome Powell. During a recent White House event, Trump directly told Hassett, "I actually want to keep you where you are, if you want to know the truth."

          Speaking on Fox News, Hassett confirmed the ongoing discussion. "From the beginning, he and I have talked about whether it's better for me to be here in the West Wing or over at the Fed," he said. "I don't think he's made a final call on that."

          The Shifting Field of Fed Candidates

          Hassett was once considered a frontrunner for the top job at the central bank. The race is now widely seen as a four-person contest, with the other key contenders being Fed Governor Christopher Waller, former governor Kevin Warsh, and BlackRock Inc. executive Rick Rieder.

          According to people familiar with the matter, Rieder's candidacy has recently gained significant momentum. Some believe he may face an easier path to confirmation in the Senate, a crucial factor in the current political climate.

          Political Headwinds and a Fed Investigation

          The nomination process is unfolding under a cloud of controversy. A criminal probe targeting the Federal Reserve and Jerome Powell over the remodeling of the central bank's headquarters has sparked political backlash.

          Powell has accused the Justice Department of initiating the investigation to pressure the Fed into cutting interest rates. The fallout has reached Congress, with influential lawmakers like Senate Banking Committee member Thom Tillis warning that any nominee from President Trump will be subjected to intense scrutiny.

          Hassett Defers to the President

          In his Sunday interview, Hassett acknowledged the situation and deferred to the President's judgment. "There are a lot of great candidates, and it could well be that the president's right to make the decision that this is the best place for me right now," he stated, referring to his post at the White House.

          Hassett added that he was "humbled and gratified" by Trump's comments, describing the president as "such a good guy."

          The search for the next Fed Chair is being led by Bessent, who Trump has confirmed has removed himself from consideration for the role. Jerome Powell's term as head of the central bank is set to end on May 15.

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          Russia: Inflation Pressures Re-Emerge At The Start Of 2026

          Gerik

          Economic

          Inflation Trends And The 2025 Slowdown

          Russia entered 2026 following a notable moderation in inflation over the previous year. According to data from the Federal State Statistics Service Rosstat, headline inflation for 2025 stood at 5.59%, a substantial decline from 9.52% in 2024, 7.42% in 2023, and 11.94% in 2022. This outcome came in below earlier official projections, indicating that price pressures eased more quickly than policymakers had anticipated.
          Both major forecasting institutions adjusted their expectations during 2025. In October, the Central Bank of Russia projected inflation in the range of 6.5% to 7%, while the Ministry of Economic Development estimated 6.8% in its September forecast. The final outcome suggests that monetary tightening and weaker domestic demand were closely associated with slower price growth across much of the year.

          Early 2026 Signals A Rebound In Price Growth

          Despite the improvement recorded in 2025, inflationary pressure resurfaced at the start of 2026. Between January 1 and January 12, consumer prices rose by 0.62%. For the full month of January, the increase is estimated at 1.23%, which corresponds to an annualized pace of approximately 6.26%.
          A key factor influencing this early-year acceleration is the increase in the value-added tax, which rose from 20% to 22% effective January 1, 2026. The timing and magnitude of the price increases suggest a strong linkage between administrative tax adjustments and short-term inflation dynamics, rather than a purely demand-driven surge.

          Monetary Policy Shift And Inflation Targets

          On December 19, the Central Bank of Russia reduced its key policy rate by 50 basis points to 16%, marking a shift away from an extended period of tight monetary policy. The rate cut reflects confidence that inflation can be steered back toward target levels without maintaining maximum restraint.
          Looking ahead, the central bank projects inflation in 2026 to remain within a 4% to 5% range. The Ministry of Economic Development is slightly more optimistic, forecasting inflation at 4% based on its September outlook. These projections imply that policymakers view the early-2026 price spike as manageable within the existing policy framework rather than as a signal of sustained overheating.

          Food Prices And Persistent Cost Pressures

          Food prices continued to play a significant role in shaping inflation patterns. In December 2025, food prices rose by 0.43%, bringing the total increase for the year to 5.24%, compared with 11.05% in 2024. This deceleration aligns with broader inflation trends, although price levels remain elevated for many households.
          Within this category, fruit and vegetable prices increased by 1.56% in December and by 8.80% over the full year, down from a sharp 22.09% rise in 2024. Certain items recorded much stronger gains in 2025, including frozen fish, which rose by 16.98%, alcoholic beverages at 11.12%, and bread and bakery products, also up 11.12%. These increases indicate uneven price adjustment across food subcategories rather than a uniform slowdown.

          Non-Food Goods And Diverging Price Movements

          Prices for non-food goods rose by 0.34% in December 2025 and by 2.99% over the year, compared with a 6.12% increase in 2024. Fuel prices remained a notable source of upward pressure, with gasoline prices increasing by 10.78% in 2025. Pharmaceutical products rose by 9.88%, while tobacco products increased by 7.08%.
          At the same time, several durable goods categories experienced price declines. Television and radio products fell by 8.53%, and household appliances declined by 4.96% over the year. This divergence reflects differing supply conditions and consumer demand patterns, with discretionary goods showing weaker pricing power.

          Services Inflation And Core Price Dynamics

          Service prices rose by an average of 0.15% in December and increased by 9.30% over the course of 2025, down from 11.52% in 2024. While the pace has eased, services inflation remains elevated relative to goods, highlighting ongoing cost pressures in labor-intensive sectors.
          Core consumer price inflation, which excludes items affected by seasonal and administrative factors, reached 100.37% in December 2025 and 105.44% for the year as a whole, compared with 108.93% in 2024. The decline in core inflation suggests a broader moderation in underlying price momentum, even as headline figures fluctuate due to tax and policy changes.
          Russia’s inflation profile entering 2026 presents a mixed picture. The sharp deceleration achieved in 2025 demonstrates the effectiveness of prolonged monetary tightening, yet early-2026 data reveal renewed price pressure linked to fiscal adjustments and sector-specific dynamics. Whether inflation stabilizes within the official 4% to 5% target range will depend on the interaction between tax policy, monetary easing, and household demand over the coming months.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          China In 2026: Entering A New Phase Of Economic Adjustment

          Gerik

          Economic

          A Critical Turning Point For The World’s Second-Largest Economy

          The year 2026 represents a structural inflection point for China’s economic trajectory. As the world’s second-largest economy, China is facing the complex task of maintaining growth stability while stimulating domestic demand and preserving industrial capacity in a far more challenging global trade environment. The policy focus has shifted from rapid expansion to controlled recalibration, reflecting both internal structural pressures and external constraints.
          Over the past three years, China has consistently pursued GDP growth close to 5%. By the end of September 2025, the economy recorded growth of 5.2% for the January–September period, remaining broadly aligned with this objective. However, the official growth target for 2026 remains undecided and is expected to be announced at the National People’s Congress in March. Zhennan Li, Senior Asia Economist at Pictet Wealth Management, projects that policymakers may set a growth range of 4.5% to 5% to preserve feasibility in the long-term objective of doubling household income by 2035. A separate survey conducted by Nikkei similarly anticipates real GDP growth of around 4.5% in 2026.
          This year also marks the beginning of China’s 15th Five-Year Plan. While specific numerical targets have yet to be disclosed, the overarching direction emphasizes maintaining growth within a reasonable range while gradually increasing the share of household consumption. The relationship between growth moderation and consumption upgrading is structural rather than coincidental, as slower but more balanced growth is expected to reduce reliance on investment-led expansion.

          Property Market Stress And Consumer Confidence

          One of the central challenges facing China’s growth outlook lies in the continued weakness of the property sector. Housing sales are expected to decline further, and estimates suggest that new home inventory reached a record level equivalent to 27.4 months of sales by November of the previous year. This accumulation of unsold inventory has placed financial strain on major developers, exemplified by China Vanke’s negotiations to extend bond repayment schedules.
          At the same time, consumer confidence has yet to show meaningful recovery. The government has identified consumption stimulation as a top policy priority, although expectations for a large-scale stimulus package remain limited. In December 2025, Chinese leaders reaffirmed a commitment to proactive fiscal policy and moderately accommodative monetary policy. Larry Hu, China economist at Macquarie, noted that policymakers currently do not perceive an urgent need to significantly intensify stimulus efforts. This indicates a cautious policy stance, where limited intervention is preferred to avoid amplifying structural imbalances.

          Targeted Fiscal Tools And Monetary Support

          In practical terms, China’s stimulus approach in 2026 continues to favor targeted instruments over broad-based expansion. The Ministry of Finance has allocated 62.5 billion yuan from government bond issuance to support consumption, a figure lower than that of 2025. Direct support measures, such as childcare subsidies, are being rolled out alongside expectations of further interest rate reductions by the central bank.
          The policy logic reflects a clear correlation between narrowly focused fiscal tools and controlled demand support, rather than an attempt to reignite growth through large-scale spending. This strategy suggests a deliberate effort to preserve fiscal space while addressing specific demand-side weaknesses.

          Export Resilience Under Rising Protectionism

          Externally, China’s export sector has demonstrated notable resilience. From January to November 2025, the country recorded a record trade surplus of 1 trillion USD. Strong export growth to Europe, Southeast Asia, and Africa has offset declining shipments to the United States. HSBC analysis attributes this performance largely to China’s price competitiveness, with export prices falling by more than 20% over the past two years.
          However, the durability of this export momentum faces increasing pressure from renewed protectionist measures. Since January, Mexico has imposed tariffs of up to 50% on car imports from countries without free trade agreements, including China. Earlier, the French President warned in the Financial Times that Europe may adopt protective measures if China fails to address internal economic imbalances. These developments highlight a strong association between China’s export expansion and rising trade resistance in destination markets.

          Geopolitical Uncertainty And Industrial Capacity

          While a planned visit to China by former US President Donald Trump in April could offer an opportunity to ease bilateral tensions, broader global trade conflicts continue to cloud the outlook. J.P. Morgan forecasts that China’s export growth will slow in 2026 under these conditions.
          In response to deflationary pressures and intensified price competition, China has introduced several policy measures, yet there is no indication of a meaningful reduction in industrial capacity. The government has established three state-backed investment funds with a combined size of 150 billion yuan, targeting semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and energy sectors. Economists at Societe Generale have expressed doubts about the feasibility of capacity reduction in downstream industries, given the dominant role of private enterprises. This suggests that industrial expansion in strategic sectors remains a long-term priority, even as traditional sectors face oversupply.

          Investment Decline And Policy Redirection

          The most concerning structural signal in China’s current economic profile is the contraction in fixed asset investment. In 2025, fixed asset investment declined by 2.6%, marking the first annual decline since 1989. A 16% drop in real estate investment, combined with record-low credit growth, reflects exceptionally weak capital demand across the economy.
          In response, authorities have pledged to halt the investment downturn by redirecting capital toward consumption-oriented infrastructure, including electric vehicle charging stations and social welfare services. The China Development Bank and other state financial institutions have deployed financial instruments worth 500 billion yuan to support construction activity, with additional funding rounds likely. The link between infrastructure investment and consumption support here is complementary, as improved public infrastructure is expected to facilitate longer-term household spending rather than generate immediate output surges.

          Technology As A Strategic Anchor

          In his New Year address, President Xi Jinping did not directly reference the difficulties in the property market or consumer sentiment. Instead, he highlighted breakthroughs in domestic artificial intelligence and semiconductor development. This messaging reinforces the continuity of China’s high-technology strategy, signaling that innovation-led growth remains central despite headwinds in traditional sectors and an increasingly restrictive global trade environment.
          Overall, China’s economy in 2026 is set to operate within a demanding adjustment phase. Growth will rely less on large-scale stimulus and more on targeted policy interventions, while external trade pressures and internal structural constraints shape the pace of expansion. The capacity to balance domestic stabilization with geopolitical adaptability will be decisive in determining whether China can sustain a stable and credible growth path in the years ahead.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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