Germany News: Budget on The Way As Coalition Quibbles

Forex

Economic

Summary:

Germany to vote on its 2026 budget after contentious debate; Berlin lawmakers grappled with reforms to the country's retirement system; Young conservatives in Friedrich Merz's own party fueled the debate; Chancellor Merz says he'll push for a delay to a EU ban on internal combustion engines from 2035.

Government reaches pension deal after long night of Chancellery talks

"We've cleared some major hurdles. I didn't leave here until 2:15 a.m., but it was worth it," Markus Söder, chairman of the conservative Bavarian CSU, said on Friday morning at the Chancellery.

Looking a little tired but satisfied, Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU), who sat next to Söder at the press conference, echoed this sentiment.

"The coalition is capable of acting," said the chancellor.

There had been doubts about its ability to govern in recent days, mainly because a group of young lawmakers in the conservative government faction wanted to block a planned pension bill they said would prove too costly to younger generations.

On this tricky issue, the coalition of Merz's CDU, Söder's CSU and the Social Democrats said on Friday it would not change the pension bill, but to commit to comprehensive pension reform after 2032.

Whether that will be enough for the young conservatives will be seen next week — that is when the pension bill is to be brought before the Bundestag.

The coalition has only a majority of 12 votes, and at least 18 conservative members of parliament voiced strong opposition to the bill. So it could be a close vote.

Merz, for his part, said he was "counting on approval."

11/28/2025

Berlin set to pass 2026 budget

Parliamentarians in Berlin on Friday are expected to pass Germany's 2026 budget after months of wrangling. This year's budget diverges from those of the past by depending heavily on borrowing to finance big-ticket programs after decades of balanced budgets and calls to stick to the so-called "black zero" policy of incurring no new debt.

Approved by the country's Budget Committee, the plan allocates a total of €524 billion ($607.7 billion), €97.9 billion of which will be borrowed. Some €58.3 billion will also be poured into new infrastructure investments through a special budgetary measure that passed in March and is exempted from prior rules clamping down on debt spending.

Germany's so-called "debt brake" — from which special funds are excluded — limits new borrowing to 0.35% of GDP.

Germany has increased investment 10% year-on-year over 2025, pumping it up to €126.7 billion for 2026.

Total new debt resulting from the budget and special funds will be around €180 billion, an amount surpassed only at the peak of the coronavirus pandemic.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects Berlin's budget deficit will grow to 4% of GDP in 2027, with debt expected to climb to 68% — the lowest in the G7.

Source: DW

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Gerik

Economic

Taiwan’s Economic Surge Defies Geopolitical and Trade Headwinds

Amid escalating geopolitical threats from China and the enduring weight of U.S. trade tariffs, Taiwan has emerged as one of the world’s fastest-growing developed economies. The island recorded back-to-back quarterly GDP growth rates of 7.7% and 8.21%, with 2025 growth projected at 7.4% surpassing China. These figures are largely driven by explosive AI-related export growth, with October exports alone surging 49.7% year-on-year, and the nation’s stock market surpassing Germany’s to become the eighth largest globally.

The primary engine behind this performance is Taiwan’s high-tech sector, especially semiconductors. Companies like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world’s top contract chipmaker, are central to global AI infrastructure, supplying critical chips to tech giants like Nvidia and AMD. TSMC alone revised its annual revenue forecast to the mid-30% growth range, citing AI demand as the core driver. Taiwan’s outbound shipments to the U.S. where most AI data centers are being built jumped more than 63% in the first 10 months of 2025.

Economic Gains Concentrated in High-Tech Sector

Despite this extraordinary growth, a widening gap between economic headlines and lived experience has emerged. Electronics manufacturing, which contributes over 15% of Taiwan’s GDP, employs just 6.5% of its workforce. Meanwhile, real wage growth has stagnated since the early 2000s, and labor’s share of GDP has declined from roughly 50% in the 1990s to around 44% today.

Data from Capital Economics shows that wages in the electronics sector are now more than 70% higher than the average across all industries, up from 35% just five years ago. This disproportionate income distribution has left workers in healthcare, education, and traditional manufacturing struggling. For example, nurses and salaried workers in Kaohsiung report that salaries have barely moved, even as Taiwan’s GDP per capita exceeds $38,000 higher than both South Korea and Japan.

The root of this disparity lies in Taiwan’s export-led development model, where long-term wage suppression has been used to maintain international price competitiveness. As labor activist Roy Ngerng points out, the surge in tech profits hasn’t translated into meaningful gains for the broader labor force, widening inequality and straining social cohesion.

Structural Risks: Sectoral Dependence and External Exposure

Taiwan’s AI-linked boom is also fueling concerns about excessive dependence on a single sector. Chips and electronics now make up more than 73% of exports up from about 50% five years ago while traditional sectors like machinery and plastics have remained flat or declined.

This narrow export concentration leaves Taiwan vulnerable to sector-specific downturns. Economist Wang Jiann-Chyuan predicts a significant drop in export growth next year, from 30% to single-digit figures, as the AI expansion normalizes. Moreover, Taiwan’s record trade surplus with the U.S. could draw scrutiny from President Trump, who has already signaled the possibility of triple-digit semiconductor tariffs. While exemptions have so far protected companies like TSMC that invest in the U.S., the trade relationship remains precarious.

Social Disconnection and Housing Crisis Undermine Economic Optimism

Consumer sentiment remains subdued. Confidence indices show little change throughout 2025, suggesting that the GDP surge has failed to translate into household optimism. Part of the disconnect stems from the burdens of rising living costs particularly housing. Taipei’s house price-to-income ratio has tripled over the past 20 years, surpassing global cities like New York and Hong Kong, pushing younger workers and lower-income households to the financial edge.

For many citizens, the AI boom feels intangible. Healthcare professionals cite wage stagnation as a reason for burnout and emigration, while even high-skilled tech workers, like AI engineers, acknowledge the gap between national strength and personal wealth.

Navigating Political and Economic Fragility

Taiwan’s economic success is underpinned by a fragile geopolitical context. The island’s unresolved political status and China’s military threats contribute to a sense of collective anxiety, despite headline growth. Political economist Wu Jieh-min sees this societal alertness as constructive: a mindset of careful management rather than complacency.

Taiwan’s development path marked by decentralized industrial ecosystems and adaptive small-to-medium enterprises has historically been shaped by pragmatism more than planning. As Wu Tsong-Min of National Taiwan University notes, Taiwan’s purchasing power parity-adjusted GDP paints a slightly more favorable picture, but systemic issues like wage stagnation and housing unaffordability remain unresolved.

Taiwan’s rise as a global AI and semiconductor leader illustrates how concentrated innovation can supercharge a national economy. Yet the gap between headline GDP and individual financial well-being reveals a structural flaw: growth that is not inclusive. Without deeper reforms in wage distribution, cost of living, and sectoral diversification, Taiwan risks cultivating discontent even in the midst of economic triumph. The next phase of Taiwan’s success will depend not just on how much it exports, but how equitably it shares the gains of its technological dominance.

Source: CNN

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Glendon

Cryptocurrency

Ethereum (ETH) reached a critical trendline in 2025, sparking speculation about a $10,000 target. Institutional inflows and key opinion leaders highlight potential growth opportunities.

The trendline suggests strong market optimism towards Ethereum, influenced by whale accumulation, ETF inflows, and whale sentiment, which may accelerate ETH's climb closer to the significant $10,000 mark.

Ethereum has reached a historic trendline, prompting discussions among investors about a possible $10,000 price target. Analysts emphasize the importance of recent price action and accumulated interest from large investors.

Key figures like Vitalik Buterin and institutional investors are integral to Ethereum's current trajectory. Whale accumulation and Ethereum ETFs position the cryptocurrency market for potential significant gains.

The cryptocurrency market has seen increased positivity as institutional investors show growing confidence. This influx suggests a shift in how Ethereum and similar assets are viewed, particularly among large-scale investors.

Continued institutional inflows reinforce Ethereum's role in the market. These trends reflect potential changes in broader financial strategies, highlighting a more bullish sentiment driven by large stakeholders.

Ethereum's market position is strengthened by its historical behavior during similar periods. Analysts draw parallels to past bull runs that saw substantial gains following initial accumulation phases by large stakeholders.

Insights indicate that financial, regulatory, and technological outcomes may substantially alter Ethereum's pathway. Underpinning factors include historical trends and ongoing market analyses predicting price trajectories and long-term growth potential.

Ali Martinez, On-Chain Analyst, - "If Ethereum closes decisively above $3,980, we may see a run toward $4,500, possibly setting the stage for a $10,000 scenario later in the year."

Source: CryptoSlate

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Justin

Political

Economic

Britons reacted overwhelmingly negatively to Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves' budget, the first opinion poll since it took place has found, suggesting little relief for the Labour government's slumping popularity.

Respondents to a YouGov survey conducted after Wednesday's statement said they saw it as unfair rather than fair by a margin of 48% to 21%. That's the second-worst score recorded by YouGov for a budget since it began tracking sentiment in 2010. Only the infamous market-roiling "mini-budget" held under former Conservative prime minister Liz Truss in 2022 fared worse.

Half of those surveyed by YouGov said Reeves' budget would leave them and their family worse off, compared with 3% who said they would be better off. Only 3% said the economy was in a "quite good" state, with 0% saying it was in a "very good" state. Two-thirds said they expect it to get worse in the next 12 months.

The numbers show the scale of the challenge faced by Reeves and Prime Minister Keir Starmer to turn around their fortunes. Just 16 months into power, voters have turned on the Labour government after a series of mis-steps and policy U-turns that have left Starmer's position in question.

YouGov found some individual measures were popular, such as reductions in energy bills, a freeze on rail fares and new taxes on mansions and gambling. However, a tax rise on workers and the expansion of family benefits were considered by a majority of voters the wrong thing to do at this time.

Taxing workers, by freezing thresholds for a further two years, contradicts Labour's key election promise not to increase the tax burden on 'working people.' A day later, the government announced it would drop a key measure from its flagship workers' rights package that awarded day one protections against unfair dismissal, another manifesto pledge.

Another pollster Luke Tryl of More in Common, said voters would be unimpressed by the chaotic run-up to the budget, and noted that Starmer and Reeves appeared to have prioritised the interests of their governing Labour Party and financial markets over voters.

"If they had three audiences, the public, the markets and the parliamentary Labour Party, they chose the last two because they matter most for short term-survival and they think they've got longer with the public," Tryl said in an interview with Bloomberg.

Markets rallied after Reeves expanded her buffer against her fiscal rules though declined on Thursday in something of a reality check. Labour members of Parliament, especially those on the left of the party, expressed support for measures such lifting the two-child cap on benefits and higher taxes on the wealthy.

"Measures to help with the cost of living such as lowering energy bills are likely to be well received. Some Labour voters will also like scrapping the two child benefit cap," said Ipsos' Keiran Pedley. However, he cautioned that "tax rises are likely to be controversial, as we are already seeing a gradual increase in sentiment that taxes should be cut".

"The wider issue for the government is that public negativity about the state of the economy and performance of the government is at such a level that it is very hard for them to get the benefit of the doubt," Pedley said.

Leading economists also criticised the lack of a plan to boost economic growth in Reeves' statement and warned that her proposals to repair the public finances may not be credible.

"It was a bits-and-pieces budget. There was no sense of reform or direction, I think is the most worrying part of this," Paul Johnson, a former director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, told Bloomberg Radio. "You look at what they have actually done so far, and net, it's clearly had a negative impact on growth."

"Most of the fiscal repair job has been put on hold for three years," said Ruth Curtice from the Resolution Foundation, a left-of-centre think tank with close links to the Labour government. "Appearances can be deceiving," she added, warning the country faced "plenty more bracing budgets".

Source: Theedgemarkets

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Michelle

Forex

Economic

Euro zone consumers raised their near-term inflation expectations a touch but kept them unchanged further out, a European Central Bank survey showed, supporting bets that price growth remains around target and no more rate cuts are needed.

Inflation has been hovering around the ECB's 2% target for most of this year and policymakers see it around this level even over the medium-term, a rare success for a bank that struggled with ultra-low inflation for a decade before a post-pandemic surge to above 10%.

Consumers surveyed in October see inflation in the next year at 2.8%, above the 2.7% predicted a month earlier, while price growth three years ahead was seen at 2.5% and five years out at 2.2%, the ECB said on Friday.

The figures, based on a survey of 19,000 adults in 11 euro zone nations, appear consistent with policymaker views that inflation is no longer a worry and, even if some domestic price pressures continue to linger, prices are on the way down to target.

This is why financial markets see almost no chance of a rate cut next month and see only a one-in-three chance of any further easing next year, with most economists betting that the interest rate cycle has bottomed out.

Income and spending bets also supported this narrative. Consumers' income growth expectations in the next year rose to 1.2% from 1.1%, while expected spending growth was unchanged at 3.5%.

While the ECB is keeping the door open to more rate cuts, it made clear it was in no hurry to change policy and some policymakers even argue the bank may be done cutting after halving the deposit rate in the year to June.

Source: Investing

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Gerik

Economic

A Quieter But Still Crucial Black Friday

The chaotic midnight stampedes of past Black Fridays have given way to a more measured holiday kickoff. While in-store brawls and overnight lines have faded, Black Friday remains the biggest day for foot traffic in physical retail, signifying its continued relevance as the psychological start to the U.S. holiday shopping season. However, 2025 brings added layers of complexity, shaped by cautious consumer sentiment and volatile economic signals.

According to The Conference Board, U.S. consumer confidence dipped in November due to persistent inflation, slow job growth, and the lingering effects of a recent federal government shutdown. Yet this dip in sentiment does not fully align with actual spending behavior. Analysts, including Comerica Bank’s chief economist Bill Adams, suggest that while consumers express pessimism, they continue to prioritize spending for key moments such as the winter holidays indicating a disconnect between sentiment and action.

This behavior reflects a correlation rather than direct causality between economic outlook and spending. While macroeconomic discomfort makes shoppers more price-sensitive, it does not fully suppress seasonal splurges, particularly when discounts or perceived value are strong.

Tariffs and Pricing Pressure: The Lingering Effects of Trade Policy

Retailers entered the 2025 season grappling with the fallout from former President Trump’s renewed tariffs on a range of imported goods. Many businesses responded by frontloading inventory or absorbing costs to avoid passing higher prices onto consumers. Still, data from market research firm Circana shows widespread inflation in merchandise categories, with 40% of general goods rising at least 5% in price since early 2025.

Toys were hit particularly hard: 83% of toys sold in September saw price hikes above 5%, driven largely by import reliance on China, where roughly 80% of U.S. toys originate. This policy-driven cost inflation has created a cause-effect relationship between tariff application and consumer price increases, complicating retailer discounting strategies during the holiday rush.

Black Friday Momentum: In-Store and Online Strength

Despite these headwinds, signs point to a robust start to the season. Mall of America executives reported stronger-than-2019 foot traffic in recent weeks. According to Jill Renslow, this suggests that physical retail remains a core part of the holiday experience for many Americans, even as shopping habits shift.

Online performance has also outpaced expectations. Adobe Analytics reported $79.7 billion in U.S. online consumer spending from Nov. 1 to Nov. 23 up 7.5% from last year and significantly above Adobe’s 5.3% growth projection. This reflects both an expanded digital consumer base and strong discounting strategies across platforms.

Selective Consumer Behavior: Deal-Driven but Purposeful

Consumers are being more discerning in 2025. Mastercard SpendingPulse forecasts a 3.6% increase in holiday sales between Nov. 1 and Dec. 24, down slightly from last year’s 4.1%. Analysts point to selective shopping patterns: while consumers are cautious, they are still spending, particularly when value is clear and occasions warrant it.

This targeted spending is evident in Adobe’s data on discount timing. Thanksgiving Day offered the best deals on sporting goods, while Black Friday is expected to provide top discounts on TVs, toys, and appliances. Cyber Monday, in turn, will likely be the prime day for buying apparel and computers, with apparel discounts projected to double to 25% compared to earlier weeks.

Black Friday 2025 embodies a retail landscape in transition. While consumers are showing greater price sensitivity and caution, they continue to respond to strategic promotions, occasion-driven shopping, and the convenience of hybrid retail models. The so-called “holiday halo effect” remains intact, but it is less about spontaneous splurging and more about calculated, value-conscious purchasing. Retailers that anticipate these nuances blending early discounting, digital engagement, and strong in-store experiences are likely to benefit most in this cautiously optimistic season.

Source: Reuters

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IC Markets

Forex

Commodity

Stocks

Global Markets:

· Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down -0.07%, Shanghai Composite up 0.21%, Hang Seng down -0.23% ASX up 0.05%

· Commodities : Gold at $4,221.65 (0.76%), Silver at $52.235 (1.98%), Brent Oil at $63.04 (0.27%), WTI Oil at $59.05(-0.08%)

· Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.010, UK 10-year yield at 4.4530, Germany 10-year yield at 2.6775

News & Data:

· (USD) Unemployment Claims 216K to 226K expected

· (USD) Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.6% to 0.2% expected

· (USD) Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.5% to 0.5% expected

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets were mixed on Friday, taking in slightly positive signals from Europe and no guidance from Wall Street due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Traders continued to respond to growing expectations of a U.S. Fed rate cut in December after soft economic data and dovish comments from several Fed officials. The global equity rally seen over the past week also slowed.

Markets now price in an 84.7 percent chance of a 25-basis-point cut in December, sharply higher than 30.1 percent just a week earlier, with additional cuts expected next year.

In Australia, stocks traded slightly higher in choppy action, extending gains from earlier sessions. The S&P/ASX 200 held above 8,600 as strength in gold miners and tech names offset weakness in iron ore miners and financials. Major miners were mixed, while technology stocks such as Appen, Xero and WiseTech gained. Banks traded mostly lower, and gold miners advanced modestly.

Japanese shares were slightly weaker as the Nikkei slipped below 50,150, pressured by declines in exporters and tech stocks, though financials provided some support. SoftBank gained, while Fast Retailing and major chip equipment makers declined. Economic data showed retail sales and industrial production rising in October, both beating expectations. Inflation in Tokyo's Ku-area remained above the Bank of Japan's target, while unemployment held at 2.6 percent.

Elsewhere, South Korea, Hong Kong and Malaysia traded lower, while New Zealand, Singapore and Taiwan edged higher. European markets finished modestly positive, and crude oil extended its decline ahead of the OPEC+ meeting.