FintechZoom Lucid Stock Analysis: Insights on Market Trends and Future Potential

Economic

Summary:

Dive into FintechZoom's comprehensive analysis of Lucid stock, exploring the latest market trends, performance insights, and expert predictions to guide your investment strategy.

Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID), a prominent player in the electric vehicle (EV) industry, has been in the spotlight for its innovative approach to luxury electric cars and its ambitious growth plans. With the global shift towards sustainable energy and the increasing demand for electric vehicles, Lucid has positioned itself as a strong competitor to industry giants like Tesla. This article provides an in-depth analysis of Lucid stock (LCID) as covered on FintechZoom, exploring its recent performance, market trends, and future prospects. Additionally, we will examine how FastBull’s insights can further enhance your understanding of Lucid’s stock and its potential trajectory.

Overview of Lucid Group (LCID)

Lucid Group, founded in 2007 as Atieva, initially focused on developing electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other manufacturers. However, in 2016, the company rebranded as Lucid Motors and shifted its focus to building its own line of luxury electric vehicles. The company made headlines with the launch of its flagship model, the Lucid Air, a luxury sedan that boasts impressive performance, advanced technology, and a sleek design.

Lucid went public through a SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) merger with Churchill Capital Corp IV in July 2021, which significantly boosted its stock price and brought it into the public eye. Since then, Lucid has been working to expand its production capabilities, secure a foothold in the EV market, and challenge established players like Tesla.

Key Factors Influencing Lucid Stock

Production and Delivery Milestones: One of the most critical factors impacting Lucid’s stock price is its ability to meet production and delivery targets. As a relatively new player in the market, Lucid’s success in ramping up production and delivering vehicles to customers will be closely watched by investors.

Technological Advancements: Lucid is known for its cutting-edge technology, particularly in battery efficiency and range. The company’s focus on innovation and its ability to stay ahead of competitors in terms of technology will play a significant role in its long-term success.

Market Expansion: Lucid’s plans to expand its presence in key markets, including North America, Europe, and the Middle East, will be crucial for its growth. Success in these regions will depend on local regulations, consumer demand, and the company’s ability to establish a strong brand presence.

Competition in the EV Market: Lucid faces stiff competition from established players like Tesla, as well as other newcomers like Rivian and traditional automakers entering the EV space. The company’s ability to differentiate itself and capture market share will be a significant determinant of its stock performance.

Financial Performance: Like any publicly traded company, Lucid’s financial health, including its revenue growth, profitability, and cash flow, will be closely monitored by investors. The company’s ability to manage costs and achieve profitability will be key to sustaining investor confidence.

FintechZoom’s Analysis of Lucid Stock

FintechZoom is a leading financial platform that provides comprehensive analysis and real-time data on a wide range of stocks, including Lucid. For investors interested in Lucid stock, FintechZoom offers a wealth of information, from detailed financial metrics to market trends and expert opinions.

Recent Performance of Lucid Stock

Lucid’s stock has experienced significant volatility since its public debut. After an initial surge following its SPAC merger, the stock has seen periods of both rapid growth and sharp declines. This volatility is not uncommon for companies in the early stages of commercial production, particularly in a rapidly evolving industry like electric vehicles.

In recent months, Lucid’s stock price has been influenced by several key events:

Quarterly Earnings Reports: Lucid’s quarterly earnings reports have been closely scrutinized by investors, with a focus on production numbers, delivery targets, and financial performance. Any deviation from expectations has led to significant stock price movements.

Production Updates: Announcements regarding production milestones, such as the completion of the first customer deliveries of the Lucid Air, have had a direct impact on the stock price. Delays or issues in production have also contributed to stock volatility.

Market Sentiment: Overall market sentiment towards the EV sector has fluctuated, influenced by factors such as government regulations, technological advancements, and competition. Lucid’s stock price has often moved in tandem with broader trends in the EV market.

Technical Analysis and Market Trends

FintechZoom provides investors with advanced technical analysis tools that can help in understanding Lucid’s stock price movements. Key indicators such as moving averages, relative strength index (RSI), and MACD (moving average convergence divergence) are commonly used to assess the stock’s momentum and identify potential buying or selling opportunities.

Moving Averages: Analyzing Lucid’s stock price relative to its moving averages can provide insights into the overall trend. A stock trading above its 50-day or 200-day moving average is often considered to be in an uptrend, while a stock trading below these averages may be in a downtrend.

Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is a momentum indicator that measures the speed and change of price movements. An RSI above 70 may indicate that the stock is overbought, while an RSI below 30 may suggest that it is oversold.

MACD: The MACD indicator can help investors identify changes in the strength, direction, momentum, and duration of a trend. A positive MACD value suggests upward momentum, while a negative value indicates downward momentum.

Fundamental Analysis and Valuation

In addition to technical analysis, FintechZoom also offers tools for fundamental analysis. Investors can access detailed financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to evaluate Lucid’s financial health.

Revenue Growth: Investors will be keen to track Lucid’s revenue growth as it ramps up production and delivery of its vehicles. Strong revenue growth can be a positive signal for long-term investors.

Profitability: As Lucid scales its operations, achieving profitability will be a key milestone. Investors will monitor the company’s gross margins, operating expenses, and net income to assess its progress towards profitability.

Valuation Metrics: FintechZoom provides valuation metrics such as price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and enterprise value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio. These metrics can help investors determine whether Lucid’s stock is overvalued, undervalued, or fairly priced relative to its peers.

FastBull’s Contribution to Lucid Stock Analysis

FastBull is a fintech platform that complements FintechZoom’s analysis by offering real-time market signals, expert insights, and strategic recommendations. For investors in Lucid stock, FastBull provides additional tools that can enhance decision-making and optimize investment strategies.

Key Features of FastBull for Lucid Investors

Real-Time Market Signals: FastBull’s real-time signals alert investors to significant price movements and trading opportunities. These signals can be particularly useful in the volatile EV market, where quick reactions can lead to profitable trades.

Expert Analysis and Commentary: FastBull’s team of experts provides in-depth analysis and commentary on Lucid’s stock, including insights into market trends, competitive positioning, and potential risks. This expert perspective can help investors gain a deeper understanding of the factors driving Lucid’s stock price.

Strategic Recommendations: Based on a combination of technical analysis, market sentiment, and fundamental data, FastBull offers strategic recommendations for buying, holding, or selling Lucid stock. These recommendations can help investors make informed decisions and optimize their portfolios.

Combining FintechZoom and FastBull for Enhanced Analysis

By leveraging both FintechZoom and FastBull, investors can gain a comprehensive understanding of Lucid’s stock. FintechZoom’s robust data and analytical tools, combined with FastBull’s real-time signals and expert insights, provide a powerful platform for making informed investment decisions. Whether you are a long-term investor or a short-term trader, this combination of resources can help you navigate the complexities of the EV market and maximize your investment returns.

Conclusion

Lucid Group is at the forefront of the electric vehicle revolution, with ambitious plans to disrupt the luxury EV market. As the company continues to scale its production, expand its market presence, and innovate in battery technology, its stock will likely remain a focal point for investors. FintechZoom offers a wealth of resources for analyzing Lucid’s stock, from real-time data and technical analysis to fundamental metrics and market trends. By incorporating FastBull’s real-time signals and expert insights, investors can further enhance their analysis and make strategic decisions that align with their investment goals.

As Lucid navigates the challenges and opportunities in the rapidly evolving EV market, staying informed and using the right tools will be key to achieving success in your investment journey. Whether you are a seasoned investor or new to the world of electric vehicles, the insights and analysis provided by FintechZoom and FastBull can help you make the most of your investment in Lucid stock.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Glendon

Economic

US Dollar Recovery Amid Bearish Trend

The US dollar is experiencing a modest recovery following a recent decline, yet the overall trend remains bearish. The dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of six major rivals, edged up to 103.5, rebounding from a weekly low of 102.7. Despite this recovery, the broader market sentiment suggests caution, as investors remain wary of the underlying economic factors contributing to the dollar's weakness.

Anticipation Builds Ahead of Powell's Jackson Hole Speech

A key driver of market sentiment is the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Investors are eagerly awaiting Powell's remarks for insights into the Fed's future monetary policy decisions. Recent dovish signals from the Federal Reserve have fueled speculation that an interest rate cut could be on the horizon, possibly as soon as September.

Market participants are keen to discern whether Powell will reinforce these dovish expectations or provide a more hawkish stance that could support the dollar. The outcome of this speech could significantly influence the dollar's trajectory in the coming weeks, as well as broader market movements.

Mixed Economic Data Adds to Uncertainty

Adding to the complexity of the market outlook is the mixed economic data emerging from the United States. The latest jobless claims report showed a slight increase, rising to 245,000 from the previous week's 240,000, but the labor market overall appears to be holding steady. Despite the uptick in claims, the unemployment rate remains low at 3.6%, indicating that the job market is still relatively robust.

On the business activity front, the US S&P Global Composite PMI suggests continued growth, with the index coming in at 51.7, slightly above the 50.0 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. However, the Manufacturing PMI paints a less optimistic picture, falling to 47.2, signaling a contraction in the manufacturing sector for the fourth consecutive month. This divergence in economic indicators adds to the uncertainty surrounding the US economy's direction.

Potential Scenarios Post-Powell Speech

As Powell's speech approaches, investors are preparing for two possible outcomes. A hawkish stance—focusing on inflation risks—could strengthen the dollar but weigh on equities and bonds due to the prospect of prolonged higher rates. Conversely, a dovish tone—indicating readiness to cut rates—might pressure the dollar further while boosting risk assets like stocks. Powell's approach to balancing inflation concerns with the need for economic growth will be pivotal in shaping market reactions.

Investor Focus: Powell's Speech and Future Economic Data

With the dollar's recovery still fragile and mixed economic signals clouding the outlook, investors are closely monitoring Powell's upcoming speech and subsequent economic data releases. Key data points, such as the next unemployment report and updated inflation figures, will be crucial in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy decisions.

The Balance of Growth and Inflation

One unique insight to consider is the Fed's potential struggle to balance the need for economic growth with inflation control. While the labor market remains strong, the persistent contraction in manufacturing could signal underlying weaknesses that might worsen if interest rates remain elevated. Powell's speech could therefore be pivotal in clarifying whether the Fed will prioritize stabilizing growth, even at the risk of higher inflation, or continue its aggressive stance against inflation, potentially at the expense of economic momentum. This balancing act will be critical for investors as they navigate the complex landscape of US monetary policy and its impact on the dollar.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alex

Commodity

Economic

The world's largest steel industry has a bad case of the wobbles. And if there's one thing you don't want to wobble, it's steel.

China Baowu Steel Group, the largest steel producer on Earth, sounded the alarm on an industry crisis at a half-year meeting last week, saying the nation's steel producers are fighting to survive a "winter" that is "longer, colder and more difficult than expected".

Baowu chair Hu Wangming warned the industry was facing a worse challenge than those seen in 2008 and 2015, which saw a mass consolidation of steel producers — including Baowu in 2016 — to keep the sector afloat.

This new crisis is compounded by China's enduring property slump that has created a glut of steel, due to the lack of demand for new buildings, and driven down steel prices which has led to profit losses at mills.

It has prompted the usually hungry Chinese steel industry to shrink its demand for iron ore, which will cost Australia more than $3 billion over the next four years, the Treasury has warned.

Since the start of 2024, the price of iron ore has dropped by 38 per cent, below the level the Treasury assumed it would be at this time. The iron ore price dropped 7.5 per cent in the first week of August, alone.

May's Budget predicted the price would tumble to US$60/tonne by the end of March 2025, down from levels then above $US100/tonne.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the Government was following developments closely because of their potential impact on the Budget.

"Softness in the Chinese economy and the recent fall in iron ore prices are another reminder that we are not immune from volatility and uncertainty in the global economy," he said.

Every $US10/tonne drop in iron ore prices equates to a $500 million loss in potential government revenue.

About 250 million tonnes of iron ore are shipped each year to the country out of the total 330mt Rio Tinto exports annually.

The vast majority of iron ore used in China's steel mills is from Australia, with WA mining giant Rio Tinto supplying 250 million tonnes of ore to the country each year.

Rio Tinto has exported enough iron ore from the WA Pilbara region to China to make enough steel for about 45,000 Sydney Harbour Bridges.

If that demand for iron ore dried up, Australia would be in big strife.

Although Labor recorded two consecutive Budget surpluses, the $9.3 billion recorded for 2023-24 was based on high iron ore prices boosting company tax revenue.

A deficit of $28.3 billion was forecast for 2024-25, growing to $42.8 billion in 2025-26.

That deficit will likely only grow if company tax revenue from shipments of iron ore to China declines. Or unless there are severe cutbacks in government spending.

Adding to the anxiety over a looming steel crisis is the sharp decline in new construction projects China — where the stuff is a key component — down about 24 per cent in the first half of 2024, according to Commonwealth Bank.

New construction starts declined by 21 per cent in 2023 and 39 per cent in 2022.

The decline follows the liquidation of apartment building giant Evergrande, ordered by a Hong Kong court in January. According to a court ruling, Evergrandewas unable to produce a restructuring proposal for its $US328 billion in liabilities after a year and a half of hearings.

According to Evergrande's 2022 annual report, the developer has more than 1200 projects in progress.

In 2020, Chinese President Xi Jinping's government acted on the oversupply of apartment buildings that had created "ghost cities" of empty towers across China. The oversupply had seen property prices plummet by 4.9 per cent in the year to July, according to the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics.

The government's new "three red lines" policy required developers to sell assets, even at a cheap discount, to avoid piling on more debt they could not service.

Source: The Nightly

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Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Kevin Du

Economic

The Federal Reserve's widely expected pivot to lower interest rates next month is creating a conundrum for one of the biggest winners of the high-rate era: private credit.

While easier monetary policy will come as a relief to borrowers with heavy debt loads, it's also set to sap the returns of an industry that boomed as rates rose.

"Returns generally are going to come down," said John Cocke, deputy chief investment officer at Corbin Capital Partners. "I believe direct lending is past the golden age."

That golden age has coincided with the highest interest rates in a generation. Deals in the US$1.7 trillion (RM7.4 trillion) market are typically set at a floating rate, meaning lenders got much higher yields from borrowers as base rates soared. This in turn lets funds blast through hurdle rates, the point where they can begin to collect profit — or "carry" — on their returns.

Now the reverse may become true, with lenders likely to wait longer to begin drawing profits from their funds as lower central bank base rates squeeze margins. Once they've passed an initial return hurdle, usually 5% to 7%, lenders are in line to get about 10% to 15% of a fund's gains. Until then, they have to pledge all the profit to investors.

Private credit profits are also shrinking in the face of narrowing loan margins, the spread over a base rate they charge borrowers.

A barometer of private credit performance, the Cliffwater Direct Lending Index, had outperformed high-yield bonds by almost four percentage points on an annualised basis since 2004. Last year their returns near 13% were roughly on par.

At the same time, credit quality is weakening. A July study by advisory firm Lincoln International of 5,500 private companies found almost 40% had debt servicing costs larger than their free cash flow.

Many companies have bought time by switching to payment-in-kind debt that lets them delay interest by tacking it onto principal due. In the US, 17% of loans at the 10 largest business development companies — essentially vehicles for private credit funds — involved PIK, Bloomberg Intelligence found this year.

In fact, the default rate for private credit portfolio companies has been dropping for five consecutive quarters, according to data from BlackRock Inc and Lincoln International.

"There was a period with a lot of fear about interest rates," said Kirsten Bode, co-head of pan-European private debt at Muzinich & Co. "That has reduced quite a bit because people now agree on the trajectory of interest rates, if not the speed."

Fed officials are largely in agreement it's almost time to lower interest rates. Investors are onside, too, with markets fully pricing in a quarter-point cut when the Federal Open Market Committee meets next month.

The European Central Bank already cut its benchmark rate more than two months ago, and the Bank of England followed on August 1.

There's at least one more silver lining to lower rates. They will help boost valuations for potential buyout targets and revive deal flow that's languished since the rate-hiking cycle started more than two years ago. A bigger bounty of deals may eventually help lift the bottom line at private credit funds chasing too-few deals and cutting their own lending rates to do so.

"Lower base rates are generally a good thing from a cashflow perspective," said Ares Management Corp.'s Matthew Theodorakis, a partner and co-head of European direct lending, which runs more than US$70 billion in private credit strategies.

Source: Bloomberg

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Samantha Luan

Economic

Markets

The recent comeback momentum on US stock markets stalled yesterday with main US benchmarks suffering minor losses (-0.25%) following an astonishing rally over the past two weeks. Other directional trades continued. US Treasuries outperformed German Bunds with daily changes on the US curve ranging between -8.2 bps (2-yr) and -6.2 bps (30-yr) compared with -3.3 bps (5-yr) to -2.7 bps (30-yr) for Germany. US yields started slipping again as US traders joined yesterday’s actions.

Fed Bowman said that should the incoming data continue to show that inflation is moving sustainably toward our 2% goal, it will become appropriate to gradually lower the federal funds rate to prevent monetary policy from becoming overly restrictive. The onus of several Fed comments is on gradual contrary to stealth easing discounted by US money markets for this year and next.

In the run-up to this afternoon’s BLS payrolls revision, tomorrow’s PMI’s and Friday’s Powell speech in Jackson Hole, interest rate markets are clearly not (yet) backing down from their aggressive Fed easing bets. The US 2-yr yield closed back below 4% and seems drifting back to test the 3.85% support area. Failure to move south on softer data/dovish signals this week or early September (ISM’s & Payrolls) would be a strong signal that sufficient dovishness is discounted by now.

The US 10-yr yield is already testing important support at 3.8%. The dollar continues suffering from the interest rate loss. The trade-weighted greenback closed at 101.44 yesterday from a start at 101.88. Key support arrives at 100.62 (Dec23 low), 99.58 (2023 low) and 98.98 (62% retracement on 2021/2022 DXY rally). Similar resistance in EUR/USD (close 1.1130) stands at 1.1139/1.1274/1.1276.

The US Bureau of Labour Statistics today publishes its preliminary annual benchmark revision (using Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data). The June QCEW suggested that US job growth in the year through March was likely less robust than indicated. Ballpark figures point at a downward revision of about 60k/month on average. Since the early August repositioning in US money markets, the BLS update likely lost market impact. From being a potential game changer to more of a confirmation. Nevertheless, any substantial (>50k/month) downward revision won’t go unnoticed and could tip markets more in the direction of a 50 bps rate cut lift-off.

News & Views

PAP newswire reports that National Bank of Poland governor Glapinski indicated that he no longer can rule out a discussion on a monetary policy adjustment before 2026. Last month, he still advocated that view due to reigning uncertainty about the inflation outlook. According to Glapinski’s current assessment, decisions will depend on wage growth, consumption, energy prices and the economic situation of Poland’s trading partners. In this respect, the NBP governor indicated that the risk of higher inflation in Europe and the US was slightly disappearing and that rate cut expectations have increased.

The Polish economy has grown more than expected in Q2 (1.5% Q/Q and 3.2% Y/Y) according to preliminary data released last week, Glapinski’s says that it’s not sure this trend will continue. Consumption will probably slow next year due to fading wage growth. This will make the international context a more important factor for Polish growth. Polish inflation reaccelerated in July to 1.5% M/M and 4.2% Y/Y (from 2.6% in June) as the government raised the cap on energy prices. The PLN 2-y swap rate declined from 5.10% to 4.94%.The EUR/PLN cross rate jumped from the 4.265 area to close near 4.276.

Canadian inflation (published yesterday) rose by 0.4% M/M in July causing the Y/Y figure to decelerate further from 2.7% to 2.5%, the slowest pace since March 2021. The monthly details were a bit mixed with goods prices rising a modest 0.2% M/M (0.3% Y/Y), but services reaccelerating 0.7% M/M (slowing to 4.4% Y/Y from 4.8%). Energy prices rose 1.6% M/M. Closely watched core inflation measures (core median 2.4% from 2.6% Y/Y and core trimmed mean 2.7% from 2.8% Y/Y) remain on a downward trajectory. The data are seen as a nihil obstat for the Bank of Canada to further reduce its policy rate (currently 4.5%) when it will meet next on September 4 (25 bps reduction fully discounted). At its July policy meeting, the BoC indicated a growing sensitivity for the risks to growth/excess supply in the economy.

Graphs

GE 10y yield

The ECB cut policy rates by 25 bps in June. Stubborn inflation (core, services) make follow-up moves less evident. Markets nevertheless price in two to three more cuts for 2024 as disappointing US and unconvincing EMU activity data rolled in, dragging the long end of the curve down. The move accelerated during the early August market meltdown.

Payrolls Revision Flagged as Potential Gamechanger_1

US 10y yield

The Fed in its July meeting paved the way for a first cut in September. It turned attentive to risks to the both sides of its dual mandate as the economy is continuing to move better in to balance. Money markets tend to err in favour of a 50 bps lift-off. The pivot weakened the technical picture in US yields with another batch of weak eco data pushing the 10-yr sub 4%.

Payrolls Revision Flagged as Potential Gamechanger_2

EUR/USD

EUR/USD moved above the 1.09 resistance area as the dollar lost interest rate support at stealth pace. US recession risks and bets on fast and large (50 bps) rate cuts trumped traditional safe haven flows into USD. EUR/USD 1.1139 (Dec 2023 high) and 1.1276 (2023 top) serve as next technical references.

Payrolls Revision Flagged as Potential Gamechanger_3

EUR/GBP

The BoE delivered a hawkish cut in August. Policy restrictiveness will be further unwound gradually 0on a pace determined by a broad range of data. The strategy similar to the ECB’s balances out EUR/GBP in a monetary perspective. Risk-off proved a more important driver of GBP recently, triggering a return from 0.84 towards 0.86.

Payrolls Revision Flagged as Potential Gamechanger_4

Source:KBC Bank

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Forex

Commodity

Dollar underperformance continues

The euro continues to take advantage of the US dollar's weakness by trading to the highest level since December 2023. This pair has managed to quickly climb above the critical 1.1032-1.1095 area, which has acted as strong resistance in the recent past, with the next plausible target being at 1.1184.

Positioning is apparently playing a key role in the current euro/dollar rally, which sounds sensible considering the continued economic divergence between the two regions. Tomorrow's PMI surveys are expected to confirm this deviation, potentially denting the euro's strength.

Similarly, the July 31 Fed minutes, scheduled to be released later today, could also stop euro/dollar from recording another green candle. Usually, Fed minutes are not market-moving, but this could change this time around if Fed members had low appetite for rate cuts at the last meeting, confirming Chairman Powell's balanced message on July 31.

This dollar underperformance is dominating the FX space with pound/dollar climbing to a one-year high and dollar/yen retesting the support set by the 144.99 level. According to the latest polls, the majority of economists expect further rate hikes by the BoJ with the interest rate climbing to 0.5% by year-end, in stark contrast to a recent Reuters poll pointing to at least three rate cuts in the works for the Fed in 2024.

All eyes are on Jackson Hole

However, the key event of the week remains the Jackson Hole Symposium. The market is gearing up for Friday's speech by Chairman Powell with Fed board member Bowman, a known hawk and 2024 voter, pouring cold water of expectations for a very dovish speech by Powell.

The market is facing a plethora of scenarios from Powell announcing the September rate cut, and thus causing another upleg in equities and more dollar suffering, to sounding hawkish and hitting back on expectations for a September move by highlighting the strength of the US economy and the recent stickiness in inflation, which will most likely cause a risk-off reaction in equities but boost the dollar.

Oil downward move continues

WTI oil futures continue their downward move, currently hovering a tad above the 2024 low of $72.10. China's continued economic weakness, which dents its demand for oil as seen in the latest report for a small reduction of Saudi Arabia's oil exports to China, fears for a US recession and, more importantly, the OPEC+ alliance's difficulty to maintain its voluntary production cuts and thus exaggerating the demand-supply mismatch, are fueling the current bearish trend.

Geopolitics appear to have a low impact on oil prices at this stage as the market seems convinced that Iran's response to the recent assassination of Hamas' political leader will not affect the oil trading routes. Interestingly, a likely ceasefire between Hamas and Israel should alleviate any lingering concerns about an escalation of the conflict, almost totally removing one of the main reasons that could cause an oil price rally at this stage.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Samantha Luan

Commodity

Energy

Market Overview

Oil prices declined on Wednesday due to reports of increasing U.S. crude inventories and easing tensions in the Middle East. U.S. crude stocks reportedly rose by 347,000 barrels last week, indicating a potential oversupply that could pressure prices.

In contrast, gasoline and distillate stocks fell. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s efforts to mediate a ceasefire in Gaza have also contributed to the downward trend.

Weaker demand in China and global refinery margin pressures are compounding the impact. These developments suggest continued volatility in both oil and natural gas markets, with potential downside risks if oversupply concerns persist.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) is currently trading at $2.198, showing a slight increase of 0.04% on the 4-hour chart. The pivot point at $2.21 is critical, as it will likely guide the market’s next move. Resistance levels are identified at $2.29, $2.35, and $2.41, while support is found at $2.11, $2.05, and $1.99.

A triple-top pattern is forming near the $2.29 mark, suggesting strong resistance and capping further upside potential.

However, the 50-day EMA at $2.18 supports a bullish outlook, indicating that the trend could continue upward if the price stays above $2.15. A drop below this level could signal a sharp selling trend.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is currently trading at $72.99, down by 0.09% on the 4-hour chart. The key pivot point at $74.28 is critical in determining the direction of the next move. Immediate resistance is seen at $75.29, with further levels at $76.49 and $77.93. On the downside, support is found at $71.68, followed by $70.59 and $69.26.

The 50-day EMA at $75.58 and the 200-day EMA at $77.39 are above the current price, signalling a bearish outlook.

A recent breakout below the upward trendline, coupled with a bearish engulfing candle, suggests that a downward trend may continue. The market is bearish below $74.28, with a potential for further declines unless it breaks above this level.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Oil (UKOIL) is trading at $77.03, down by 0.14% on the 4-hour chart. The pivot point at $76.87 is crucial, as it indicates the potential direction of the market. Immediate resistance levels are at $78.29, $79.54, and $81.17, while support lies at $76.04, $75.00, and $73.86.

The 50-day EMA is positioned at $79.06, with the 200-day EMA at $80.78, both above the current price, suggesting a bearish trend.

The downward channel observed on the 4-hour timeframe signals continued selling pressure. UKOIL may drop further if it remains below $76.87. The market outlook is bearish below this level, with the potential for a shift if the price breaks above it.

Source:FXEMPIRE

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FintechZoom Lucid Stock Analysis: Insights on Market Trends and Future Potential

Overview of Lucid Group (LCID)

Key Factors Influencing Lucid Stock

FintechZoom’s Analysis of Lucid Stock

Recent Performance of Lucid Stock

Technical Analysis and Market Trends

Fundamental Analysis and Valuation

FastBull’s Contribution to Lucid Stock Analysis

Key Features of FastBull for Lucid Investors

Combining FintechZoom and FastBull for Enhanced Analysis

Conclusion

Is the Dollar Rebounding or Headed for More Trouble

US Dollar Recovery Amid Bearish Trend

Anticipation Builds Ahead of Powell's Jackson Hole Speech

Mixed Economic Data Adds to Uncertainty

Potential Scenarios Post-Powell Speech

Investor Focus: Powell's Speech and Future Economic Data

The Balance of Growth and Inflation

What Does China's Steel Crisis, Falling Iron Ore Price and Property Developer Crackdown Mean for Australia?

Source: The Nightly

Private Credit Braces For Lower Rates — And Lower Returns

Source: Bloomberg

Payrolls Revision Flagged as Potential Gamechanger

Markets

News & Views

Graphs

GE 10y yield

US 10y yield

EUR/USD

EUR/GBP

Source:KBC Bank

Dollar Looks at the Fed Minutes for A Small Boost

Dollar underperformance continues

All eyes are on Jackson Hole

Oil downward move continues

Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: WTI at $73, Will the Downtrend Continue?

Market Overview

Natural Gas Price Forecast

WTI Oil Price Forecast

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Source:FXEMPIRE

Risk Disclosure