Fed Working With White House To Accommodate Trump's Visit

Central Bank

Summary:

The Federal Reserve is working with the White House to accommodate President Donald Trump's unexpected visit to the U.S. central bank on Thursday, amid escalating tensions between the administration and the independent overseer of the nation's monetary policy.

"The Federal Reserve is working with the White House to accommodate their visit," a Fed spokesperson said.

Trump's visit to the Fed's headquarters in Washington, a rare appearance at the central bank by a U.S. president, was made public by the White House late on Wednesday.

The president has repeatedly demanded that Powell slash U.S. interest rates and has frequently raised the possibility of firing him, though Trump has said he does not intend to do so. On Tuesday, Trump called the Fed chief a "numbskull."

Trump will visit the Fed less than a week before the central bank's 19 policymakers gather for a two-day rate-setting meeting. They are widely expected to leave the central bank's benchmark interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range where it has been since December.

The visit also is taking place as Trump battles to deflect attention from a political crisis over his administration's refusal to release files related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, reversing a campaign promise. Epstein died in 2019.

White House officials ramped up Trump's pressure campaign on Powell in recent weeks, accusing the Fed of mismanaging the renovation of two historic buildings in Washington and suggesting poor oversight and potential fraud.

The White House's budget director, Russell Vought, has pegged the cost overrun at "$700 million and counting," and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called for an extensive review of the Fed's non-monetary policy operations, citing operating losses at the central bank as a reason to question its spending on the renovation.

The Fed's operating losses stem from the mechanics of managing the policy rate to fight inflation, which include paying banks to park their cash at the central bank. The Fed reported a comprehensive net loss of $114.6 billion in 2023 and $77.5 billion in 2024, a reversal from years of big profits it turned over to the Treasury when interest rates - and inflation - were low.

The Fed, in letters to Vought and lawmakers backed up by documents posted on its website, says the project - the first full rehab of the central bank's two buildings in Washington since they were built nearly a century ago - ran into unexpected challenges including toxic materials abatement and higher-than-estimated materials and labor costs.

The White House's deputy chief of staff, James Blair, said this week that administration officials would be visiting the Fed on Thursday. Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott, who has also raised questions about the buildings, will join the visit as well.

In a schedule released to the media on Wednesday night, the White House said Trump would visit the Fed at 4 p.m. EDT (2000 GMT) on Thursday. It did not say whether Trump would meet with Powell.

Market reaction to Trump's visit was subdued. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury bonds ticked higher after data showed new jobless claims dropped in the most recent week, signaling a stable labor market not in need of support from a Fed rate cut. Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher.

'MAINTAIN HIS INDEPENDENCE'

Trump's public criticism of Powell and flirtation with firing him have previously upset financial markets and threatened a key underpinning of the global financial system - that central banks are independent and free from political meddling.

His visit, against the backdrop of his antipathy for Powell, contrasts with a handful of documented previous presidential visits, including most recently former President George W. Bush's swearing-in of former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke.

Republican Senator Mike Rounds on Thursday said it's critical that Powell maintains his independence, but saw no problem with Trump's visit.

"I think the more information the president can glean from this, probably the better off we are in terms of resolving any issues that are outstanding," Rounds said, noting that Powell had indicated "that they have had a significant amount of money, just in terms of foundation work and so forth, that was not anticipated to begin with."

"I think he has to maintain his independence," Rounds said about Powell's role. "That's critical for the markets. I think he's done a good job of that."

Source: Reuters

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Adam

Stocks

American Airlines Group shares are experiencing a dramatic selloff in premarket trading, plunging 6.31% to $11.88 as of 7:56 AM EDT following the release of disappointing third-quarter guidance that significantly missed analyst expectations. Despite reporting better-than-expected second-quarter earnings of $0.95 per share versus the $0.78 consensus estimate and achieving record quarterly revenue of $14.4 billion, investors are focusing on the airline’s cautious outlook for the remainder of 2025. The stock’s premarket decline represents a sharp reversal from yesterday’s modest 1.44% gain that closed at $12.68.

American Airlines Guidance Disappoints Wall Street

The primary catalyst behind AAL’s premarket decline stems from management’s sobering third-quarter outlook, which calls for an adjusted loss of $0.10 to $0.60 per share compared to analyst expectations of a $0.03 profit. This dramatic miss in forward guidance overshadowed the company’s strong second-quarter performance, where it delivered adjusted earnings of $0.95 per share, well above the $0.78 consensus estimate. The guidance shortfall reflects ongoing challenges in the domestic travel market and broader industry headwinds that continue to pressure airline profitability.

American Airlines also revised its full-year 2025 earnings forecast to a range of negative $0.20 to positive $0.80 per share, with a midpoint of just $0.30. This represents a significant reduction from previous analyst expectations of $0.72 per share for the full year.

The company cited evolving demand trends and fuel price pressures as key factors behind the conservative outlook, while noting that the top end of the range remains achievable if domestic market conditions strengthen. However, management warned that macroeconomic weaknesses could push results toward the bottom end of the guidance range.

AAL Stock Plunges in Premarket Trading

As of premarket trading at 7:56 AM EDT, American Airlines shares were down $0.80 or 6.31% to $11.88, erasing yesterday’s modest gains and threatening to push the stock toward its 52-week low range of $8.50 to $19.10. The company maintains a market capitalization of $8.36 billion with a trailing P/E ratio of 12.68, though these metrics reflect pre-guidance market conditions. With a beta of 1.36, AAL shares typically exhibit higher volatility than the broader market, making dramatic premarket moves like today’s decline relatively common for the stock.

The airline’s financial position shows both strengths and concerns, with $12 billion in total available liquidity providing a solid cushion but also carrying $38 billion in total debt. American’s year-to-date performance has been particularly challenging, down 27.25% compared to the S&P 500’s 8.11% gain, though the stock has shown resilience over longer periods with a 20.99% one-year return. Analyst price targets range from $8.00 to $20.00 with an average of $13.70, suggesting the current premarket price of $11.88 sits below most professional forecasts, though today’s guidance revision will likely prompt analysts to reassess their targets.

Source: investing

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Adam

Stocks

Like most sequels, “Meme Stock Mania Part II” can’t quite replicate the magic of the original.

But for a couple of days, it looked like we were on the brink of a repeat of that early-2021 fervor, when an army of regular-Joe day-traders banded together online to get rich quick while waging financial war on the supposedly more sophisticated suits on Wall Street.

ICYMI: Kohl’s this week became a day-trader favorite, with shares (KSS) more than doubling at one point Tuesday before ending the day up 27%, its second-best trading day ever. GoPro, the wearable camera company (GPRO), finished 41% higher Tuesday — its best trading day ever — and was up more than 50% Wednesday morning. Krispy Kreme (DNUT) and financial services firm Rocket (RKT) were also surging.

Much of that fire had been snuffed out by the end of the day Wednesday. Kohl’s ended the day down 14%. GoPro was still up 12% but well off its intraday highs. Krispy Kreme was up 4%, and Rocket rose 1.3%.

Still hot, but not quite boiling.

“The crew is moving on very quickly,” Steve Sosnick of Interactive Brokers said Wednesday. “I think people are realizing that this is just purely a social media-based ramp and that it’s not based on anything fundamental.”

That is the essence of a meme stock. There were no bombshell earnings reports, no regulatory huddles cleared, no C-suite shakeups, nothing that should drive these companies’ shares so high, so quickly. Enthusiasm tends to spring from social media chatter, which gets amplified by memes and posters egging one another on to buy more.

That was largely true of the 2021 craze, too. But four years ago, there was a lot more than just speculative fervor driving the movement that birthed the term “meme stock.”

Once upon a time…

Think back to what you were doing in January 2021.

Covid vaccines hadn’t been widely disbursed; the start of the “return to office” was still at least a year away; Joe Biden had just assumed the presidency. At the risk of overgeneralizing, we’d just experienced one of the weirdest years of our lives.

Toss in some buckets of free money in the form of stimulus checks and near-zero-percent borrowing rates, and you’ve got the makings of a YOLO financial rebellion.

If you’d wandered into the subreddit WallStreetBets in late 2020, you’d have discovered an absurdly brash community of armchair experts in finance hellbent on propping up shares of companies like GameStop, a shopping mall staple that had they believed had been unfairly maligned by short-sellers and undervalued by the Street. The humor was crude and overwhelmingly male. But to many, it felt like finding not just a community but a financial cheat code.

The goal was two-pronged: First, the day-traders would get rich quick with a momentum trade, pouring their money into the stock and posting screenshots of their gains. True believers cheered for “diamond hands,” meaning they wouldn’t sell their holdings. Those who did were shamed as “paper hands.”

At the same time, those day-trading Davids would target professional Goliaths known as short-sellers who had taken the opposite position, betting the stock would go down. With enough people pushing the stock higher, they created a “short squeeze” — forcing the short-sellers to exit their losing trade and creating even more upward momentum for the stock.

2021’s frenzy felt like us vs. them, fueled by a very online form of schadenfreude. If you got in early, you might have walked away rich; if you came in late, or held the stock through the inevitable crash, you lost the game.

“It was a way to belong to something in a period where we were all socially disconnected,” Sosnick says. “Now, it’s just, quite frankly, a vehicle for pumping and dumping.”

‘Flight to crap’

The flurry around meme stocks isn’t the only echo of 2021 in the market right now.

Crypto was riding high in 2021, before an epic crash linked to Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX trading platform nearly collapsed the industry in the fall of 2022. Three years later, bitcoin is trading near its all-time high around $120,000 — having bounced back some 600% from its 2022 lows — as President Donald Trump has become personally invested in the industry and established a friendly regulatory regime around digital assets.

SPACs — “special purpose acquisition companies” that fast-track a company’s route to public trading — have also made a quiet comeback, minus some of the celebrity backings that made headlines in 2021. A SPAC, also known as a blank-check merger, gets you to market faster, but it comes with less due diligence and greater risk.

“A SPAC is sort of an ultimate sign of a frothy market. ‘Give me some money, trust me, I’ll come up with something,” Sosnick says.

While the market has experienced bouts of enormous volatility in recent months, stocks continue to push higher. The S&P 500 is up more than 5% since January. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both hit fresh record highs, while the Dow closed just four points shy of a record.

The meme stock renaissance seems to reflect a behavior Sosnick calls the “flight to crap.” It’s the inverse of the often-cited “flight to quality” that happens when investors are anxious about a downturn.

Source: cnn

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Adam

Economic

Elon Musk warned of difficult times ahead for Tesla Inc. following one of the carmaker’s worst stretches since it first started producing electric sedans over a dozen years ago.

Tesla will be in a transition period for the next year or more, losing electric vehicle incentives in the US and needing time to roll out autonomous vehicles, the chief executive officer said.

“We probably could have a few rough quarters,” Musk said. “But once you get to autonomy at scale in the second half of next year, certainly by the end of next year, I would be surprised if Tesla’s economics are not very compelling.”

Tesla shares fell as Musk spoke after the close of US trading. The move carried over into Thursday, with the stock dropping as much as 9.5% shortly after the open.

Musk’s comments were his starkest yet on the fallout for Tesla from the tax bill President Donald Trump signed this month. In addition to phasing out $7,500 tax credits for EV purchases, the law gutted federal fuel-economy standards that have generated significant revenue for Tesla over the years.

The Tesla CEO’s blasting of the bill — he called it a “disgusting abomination” — solidified Musk’s break from Trump days after he left a prominent role in the president’s administration.

Tesla on Wednesday reported adjusted earnings of 40 cents a share, missing Wall Street’s already lowered estimates. Revenue fell 12% to $22.5 billion, the steepest decline since 2012. Vehicle deliveries slumped and the average selling price of Tesla cars dropped.

Using Imagination

The results were “noisy,” with clear challenges in the near term and no formal guidance beyond that, Truist Securities analyst William Stein said in a note.

“The company offered remarkably little detail on some of the most important factors,” including a lower-priced model and humanoid robot, Stein said. That makes “our outlook lean more on imagination than realistic targets.”

Tesla also reported falling sales at its energy generation and storage business, and said costs from tariffs increased around $300 million. The impact of the levies is expected to grow in the coming quarters, Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja said.

The company’s car business is struggling in the face of rising competition and continued fallout from Musk’s political activities. Investors have largely been willing to look past sales declines and toward the CEO’s promises related to artificial intelligence, robots and self-driving technology.

This quarter, however, Musk put more emphasis on the amount of turbulence standing in the way of Tesla starting to see payoff from these investments.

“There are some teething pains as you transition from a pre-autonomy to a post-autonomy world,” Musk said.

On the conference call, executives spent relatively little time discussing the EV business, instead talking about plans to expand Tesla’s recently launched robotaxi service, a new diner opened in Los Angeles, and whether the company may invest in xAI, Musk’s AI startup.

‘Go Crazy’

The CEO also reiterated his desire for greater control of Tesla, suggesting his ownership stake should be higher to guard against any activist investor attempt to oust him. His multibillion-dollar Tesla payout was gutted by a Delaware judge last year, leading the company to appeal and move its incorporation to Texas.

“I think my control over Tesla should be enough to ensure that it goes in a good direction, but not so much control that I can’t be thrown out if I go crazy,” Musk said.

Tesla’s brand has become increasingly polarizing following Musk’s once-emphatic support of Trump. During his brief stint in the administration, Musk’s attempts to slash government spending generated criticism from many of Tesla’s traditionally left-leaning consumers, while some investors worried the project was a distraction.

Revenue from the regulatory compliance credits Tesla sells to rival carmakers fell to $439 million in the second quarter. That’s down 26% from the first quarter and 51% from a year earlier.

This revenue stream is under threat after the tax law Trump signed this month eliminated penalties automakers faced for failing to meet federal fuel-economy standards. The administration has also moved to terminate California’s EV sales mandate and sweep away federal limits on tailpipe emissions.

Affordable Model

Tesla executives said the company started producing a more affordable EV in June, but the company will hold off on bringing it to market until after tax credits cease at the end of September. The model, which Musk said would resemble the Model Y, is seen as crucial to buoying sales.

Regarding the robotaxi, Tesla said it aims to further improve and expand its service, which began this summer in Austin. The company is seeking regulatory approval to launch in the San Francisco Bay area, Nevada, Arizona, Florida and several other places, Musk said.

“We’ll probably have autonomous ride-hailing in about half the population of the US by the end of the year,” Musk said. “That’s at least our goal, subject to regulatory approvals.”

Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, said that while Tesla’s comments on areas such as its driver-assistance systems and robotaxis were positive, investors are looking for more near-term specifics.

“All eyes are on how Austin is going to play out, and we didn’t hear much,” Munster said. “Investors were hoping to hear something and they didn’t hear it.”

Source: Bloomberg

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Daniel Carter

Commodity

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), decreased by 3.2 million barrels from the week ending July 11 to the week ending July 18, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted in its latest weekly petroleum status report.

That report was released on July 23 and included data for the week ending July 18. It showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 419.0 million barrels on July 18, 422.2 million barrels on July 11, and 436.5 million barrels on July 19, 2024. Crude oil in the SPR stood at 402.5 million barrels on July 18, 402.7 million barrels on July 11, and 374.4 million barrels on July 19, 2024, the report revealed.

Total petroleum stocks - including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils - stood at 1.653 billion barrels on July 18, the report highlighted. Total petroleum stocks were down 5.4 million barrels week on week and down 12.7 million barrels year on year, the report showed.

"At 419 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about nine percent below the five year average for this time of year," the EIA said in its latest weekly petroleum status report.

"Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.7 million barrels from last week and are slightly above the five year average for this time of year. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories decreased last week," it added.

"Distillate fuel inventories increased by 2.9 million barrels last week and are about 19 percent below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 0.5 million barrels from last week and are 10 percent above the five year average for this time of year," the EIA continued.

In the report, the EIA noted that U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.9 million barrels per day during the week ending July 18, 2025, which it pointed out was 87,000 barrels per day more than the previous week's average.

"Refineries operated at 95.5 percent of their operable capacity last week," the EIA said in the report.

"Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.4 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased by 95,000 barrels per day last week, averaging 5.1 million barrels per day," it added.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged six million barrels per day last week, according to the EIA's report, which outlined that this was a decrease of 403,000 barrels per day from the previous week.

"Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.3 million barrels per day, 7.1 percent less than the same four-week period last year," the EIA said in the report.

"Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 606,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 115,000 barrels per day," it added.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.6 million barrels a day, slightly above the same period last year, the EIA stated in its report.

"Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.8 million barrels a day, down by 4.9 percent from the same period last year," it noted.

"Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.6 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by one percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 1.5 percent compared with the same four-week period last year," it went on to state.

In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie Group late Monday, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be down by 5.6 million barrels for the week ending July 18.

"This follows a 3.9 million barrel draw in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing significantly tighter than our expectations," the strategists said in the report.

In its previous weekly petroleum status report, which was released on July 16 and included data for the week ending July 11, the EIA highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, decreased by 3.9 million barrels from the week ending July 4 to the week ending July 11.

That report showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 422.2 million barrels on July 11, 426.0 million barrels on July 4, and 440.2 million barrels on July 12, 2024. The report pointed out that data may not add up to totals due to independent rounding.

Source: Rigzone

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Adam

Forex

The Russian rouble's 45% rise against the U.S. dollar since the start of the year has made it one of the world's best performing currencies - but the sharp appreciation is proving to be a double-edged sword for the heavily sanctioned Russian economy.

The strength of the rouble means that dollar-denominated energy revenues generate fewer roubles for the Russian budget. Russian businesses also argue it is making exports more expensive to buyers in dollars and other currencies.

But President Vladimir Putin's central bank governor, Elvira Nabiullina, argues that a softer currency would be a sign of economic vulnerability.

Nabiullina, who on Friday announces the latest interest rate decision, says the exchange rate is not just there to please exporters, stressing that the strong rouble is a product of the tight monetary policy needed to fight stubbornly high inflation.

The following explains some of the factors behind the rouble's rise and its implications.

WHY HAS THE ROUBLE RISEN SO MUCH AGAINST THE DOLLAR?

The rouble has strengthened about 45% against the dollar this year. The rise is driven primarily by the central bank’s tight monetary policy and optimism after U.S.-Russia talks in February raised hopes for a peace settlement in Ukraine.

Interest rates on rouble deposits have also soared above 20%, making the currency attractive to savers and as a speculative trade for its yield. At the same time, high borrowing costs have slowed imports, reducing demand for foreign currency.

The weakness of the U.S. currency, whose index lost 6.6% since President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement on April 2, has also helped the rouble.

Although the central bank says there is a freely floating exchange rate, it has been selling the Chinese yuan, its only major intervention tool, to support the rouble. When the rouble strengthens against the yuan, its rate against the dollar strengthens as well to avoid arbitrage.

The stronger rouble helps the regulator fight inflation by making imports cheaper. VTB’s First Deputy CEO Dmitry Pyanov alleged recently this is part of a deliberate strategy.

The rouble is also supported by currency controls introduced after the start of the war in Ukraine to prevent capital flight but recently exporters have been repatriating more foreign currency revenues than they are obliged to.

HOW IS THE ROUBLE TRADED?

Since sanctions hit the Moscow Stock Exchange (MOEX) in 2024, the rouble trades over-the-counter against the dollar and euro. Banks report their quotes to the central bank, which uses them to set the official rate.

This market is opaque since only the central bank sees full transaction data. Some smaller, mostly non-Russian banks report quotes to market data providers.

The rouble trades against the yuan on MOEX. Dollar/rouble futures, which also trade on MOEX, provide some market guidance on exchange rate. There is no black market rate for foreign currency in Russia.

The rouble is no longer a major internationally traded currency and many Western companies and banks have left Russia. But Russia remains a top oil and agriculture exporter and the world’s 11th largest economy.

Russia's push to shift trade into non-Western currencies, especially the yuan, may have implications for the global dominance of the U.S. dollar in the long-term. Major developing economies like China and India are watching closely.

WHY IS ROUBLE-YUAN THE BIGGEST PAIR?

The yuan has overtaken the dollar as Russia’s most traded foreign currency. In 2024, 95% of Russia’s trade with China was settled in yuan and roubles.

Yuan-rouble trading volumes on the Moscow Exchange reached 33 trillion roubles ($420 billion) in 2024. Russia’s total trade with China hit a record $245 billion. The rouble is up against the yuan by 25% this year.

Energy firms repatriate yuan earnings, while importers use yuan to buy goods. Most analysts now focus on the rouble/yuan rate, not the dollar.

WHAT DOES THE RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT SAY ABOUT THE ROUBLE?

The government wants a weaker rouble to boost budget revenues. The 2025 budget assumes an average rate of 94.3 roubles per dollar, but the current rate is around 78.

If the rouble stays strong, VTB analysts estimate the budget could lose 2.4% of its revenues this year.

Exporters, from oil to metals to agriculture, are also hurting. A stronger rouble makes their revenues shrink. Many officials and business leaders say they would prefer a rate of 100 to the dollar.

Putin has not spoken publicly about the rouble's strength in recent months.

HOW DO ORDINARY RUSSIANS VALUE THE ROUBLE?

The public still sees the dollar as the benchmark, even though yuan use is rising. Cash dollars and euros remain available in bank branches, though there are now far fewer exchange offices than in previous decades.

Sanctions have made foreign travel and dollar and euro international transfers harder, reducing demand for cash dollars.

In the first quarter of early 2025, Russians bought about 200 billion roubles’ worth of foreign currency, unchanged from a year earlier. High rouble interest rates have made foreign currency savings less attractive.

WHAT LIES AHEAD FOR THE ROUBLE?

Analysts have warned for months that the rouble is overvalued, but the currency has defied their forecasts so far.

The central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting. If it does, market rates will fall as well, prompting savers to pull money from rouble deposits. That could weaken the currency.

A bigger test looms in early September, when a 50-day deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump for Russia to show progress toward peace in Ukraine expires. If new U.S. sanctions targeting buyers of Russian oil follow, the rouble could come under renewed pressure.

The last time the rouble weakened significantly was in November 2024, after Washington sanctioned Gazprombank, which had handled oil and gas payments.

A source close to the central bank pointed to Reuters that when the regulator cut the key rate from 17% to 11% between February and July 2015, the rouble took several months to weaken gradually. This is the regulator's expectation this time.

Source: reuters

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Thomas

Central Bank

European Central Bank policymakers pushing for another reduction in interest rates face an uphill battle, according to people familiar with the matter.

A hold looks like the baseline for September after eight cuts since June 2024, the people said, asking not to be identified revealing private discussions. Some suggested that the onus is on those seeking further easing to justify their stance, rather than those opposed to more action having to make their case.

Given what can still happen with US tariffs before and after an Aug. 1 deadline for talks to conclude, the people highlighted that views can still shift.

An ECB spokesperson declined to comment.

Earlier Thursday, the ECB kept rates unchanged for the first time in more than a year as it looks for clarity on the European Union’s trade ties with the US. President Christine Lagarde said she and her colleagues are now in a “wait-and-see” mode, with inflation at the 2% goal and the economy performing in line with or expectations.

Following those comments, markets pared bets on a September rate cut. They now put the chance of such a move at about 25% versus 40% before Lagarde spoke. A majority of economists polled by Bloomberg earlier this month predicted a final reduction in the deposit rate, to 1.75%, at the Sept. 10-11 meeting.