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Markets moved sideways early in the week as traders waited for key central bank decisions. U.S. retail sales were stronger than expected, while U.K. inflation stayed high at 3.8%.
Markets moved sideways early in the week as traders waited for key central bank decisions. U.S. retail sales were stronger than expected, while U.K. inflation stayed high at 3.8%. The Bank of England met first, kept rates unchanged as expected, and said any future cuts would depend on clear signs that inflation is falling steadily.The U.S. Federal Reserve then cut interest rates by 0.25% and suggested there could be two more cuts before the end of 2025. The Fed noted slower job growth and a weaker labor market but also said inflation is still somewhat high. The U.S. dollar dipped at first but soon recovered, finishing the week strong. U.S. stock markets hit new record highs, helped by the rate cut and strong gains in technology shares.
The Bank of Japan also kept rates unchanged but surprised markets by saying it will slowly start selling some of its large holdings of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and real estate trusts (J-REITs). The Nikkei index fell briefly but rebounded after the BoJ promised the sales would be very gradual. Two board members voted for a 0.25% rate hike, and Governor Kazuo Ueda said gradual tightening is possible if the economy and inflation stay on track, leading markets to expect a possible rate increase later this year.
Markets This Week
U.S. equities saw profit-taking early last week ahead of the FOMC announcement, but the selling was brief as buyers stepped in near the 10-day moving average. The Dow then climbed to fresh record highs after the Fed’s 0.25% rate cut and guidance for two more cuts in 2026. With the FOMC maintaining a bullish tone, the uptrend has resumed, making buying on dips toward the 10-day moving average the preferred strategy. Key resistance is now at 46,500, 47,000, and 48,000, while support lies at 45,700, 45,000, 44,000, and 43,000.
The Nikkei 225 surged after the FOMC announcement, extending its recent strong gains. However, the Bank of Japan’s surprise plan to begin selling its ETF and J-REIT holdings caused a sharp drop on Friday before the market recovered into the close. With the BoJ moving closer to a possible rate hike and starting asset sales, further gains may be harder to achieve, so a sideways-to-lower move is expected this week. Resistance is at 46,000円 and 47,000円, while support is at 45,500円, 45,000円, and 44,000円.
USD/JPY again tested the lower end of its recent range last week after the U.S. rate cut and dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell. Surprisingly, strong support held near 146, and the pair finished the week firmly as the market had been positioned for deeper losses. The rebound is notable and could attract more buying this week, but range trading between 146 and 149 remains the preferred strategy. Key resistance is at 148, 149, and 150, with support at 146 and 145.
Gold had a volatile week, posting new record highs again after the U.S. interest rate cut. The uptrend remains very strong, with prices holding above the 10-day moving average as buyers stay aggressive. In the short term, following the uptrend can be profitable, but waiting for a break below the 10-day moving average to sell may offer the best near-term trading opportunity given how far the market has already climbed. Resistance is at $3,700 and $3,800, while support stands at $3,600, $3,500, and $3,450.
WTI crude stayed under pressure last week, failing to hold above the key $65 level after an early rise. Concerns about a slowing U.S. economy and the potential for weaker demand kept sellers in control, limiting any upward momentum. For short- and medium-term traders, selling into strength or waiting for a decisive break below $60 remains the preferred strategy as the market struggles to find support. Key resistance is at $65, $70, and $75, while support is at $60 and $55.
Bitcoin had a quiet week, consolidating earlier gains and briefly rising on the U.S. interest rate cut before sellers pushed prices back below the 10-day moving average, signaling an end to September’s uptrend. The market is now expected to test lower and provide range-trading opportunities between $112,000 and $120,000 in the near term. Key levels remain unchanged, with resistance at $120,000, $125,000, and $150,000, and support at $112,000, $105,000, and $100,000.
This Week’s Focus
This week the market will continue to forecast the next moves in U.S. and Japanese interest rates as traders digest last week’s central bank meetings. A busy economic calendar includes manufacturing data from Europe, the U.K., and the U.S., with Thursday’s U.S. durable goods orders and GDP, and Friday’s U.S. Core PCE Price Index and Michigan Consumer Sentiment all likely to create volatility and trading opportunities. FX markets remain range-bound but look ready for a breakout, while traders will watch closely to see if equities and gold can extend their strong uptrends.
The U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index for August comes out Friday. The Federal Reserve will hope the report shows headline inflation is either in line or below economists' forecast of 2.8% for the year. Any higher, and investors might start worrying that the Fed's quarter-point cut last week was premature and could allow inflation to sink its claws into the economy again.
Indeed, the yields on the 10-year and 30-year Treasurys rose following the rate cut — rather counterintuitively, since they tend to follow the direction in which interest rates move. Of course, there are other factors that influence yields, such as the level of government debt and fiscal policy. Hence, movement by Treasurys could suggest that the bond market was not convinced the current economic situation in the U.S. warrants a cut.
The stock market, however, seemed to have brushed off those concerns. On Friday, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at another record. Moreover, all three major U.S. indexes had a strong showing for the week, with the Nasdaq Composite climbing 2.2%.Hindsight clarifies decisions. It grants one the power to gloat, "I told you so," or inflict an embarrassment that will keep one awake at 2 a.m. Fingers crossed that, for the Fed, hindsight is 2.8%/2.8%.
Trump and Xi talk TikTok deal Friday. The U.S. and China said progress was made even though no agreement was reached. The White House on Saturday added that the U.S. will mostly "control" the app; on Sunday, Trump said the Murdochs will likely be involved in the deal.An annual $100,000 fee for U.S. H-1B visas. Trump announced Friday a plan to impose a hefty fee on passes. The H-1B visas are largely issued to foreign workers in specialized fields — and Big Tech companies are scrambling to manage any fallout.
South Korea could face a crisis because of U.S. investment. That's according to President Lee Jae Myung, who told Reuters on Friday that without a currency swap, a $350 billion investment in the U.S. — part of the countries' trade deal — could rock South Korea's economy.U.S. stocks notched a winning week. All major U.S. indexes posted strong gains last week. On Friday, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded new all-time highs. Europe's Stoxx 600 index lost 0.16%.Watch the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. The personal consumption expenditures price index comes out Friday. If it shows that prices are rising faster than expected, the rate-cut mood in markets might take a turn quickly.
From shopping carts to superchips: Alibaba rediscovers edge with bold billion-dollar AI pivotAfter helping shape the early years of Chinese e-commerce, followed by years of management missteps, Alibaba is betting big on artificial intelligence as it takes on a new era.More than 100 billion yuan has already gone into AI infrastructure and research in the past year, said Wei Sun, principal analyst at Counterpoint Research.
Key points:
Panic, confusion and anger reigned as workers on H-1B visas fromIndiaandChinawere forced to abandon travel plans and rush back to theU.S.after PresidentDonald Trumpimposed new visa fees, in line with his wide-rangingimmigrationcrackdown.Tech companies and banks sent urgent memos to employees, advising them to return before a deadline of 12:01 a.m. EDT on Sunday (0401 GMT), and telling them not to leave the country.A White House official on Saturday clarified that the order applied only to new applicants and not holders of existing visas or those seeking renewals, addressing some of the confusion over who would be affected.
But Trump's proclamation a day before had already set off alarm bells in Silicon Valley.
Fearing they would not be allowed back once the new rule took effect, several Indian nationals at San Francisco airport said they cut short vacations.“It is a situation where we had to choose between family and staying here," said an engineer at a large tech company whose wife had been on an Emirates flight from San Francisco to Dubai that was scheduled to depart at 5:05 p.m. local time on Friday (0005 GMT on Saturday)The flight was delayed by more than three hours after several Indian passengers who received news of the order or memos from their employers demanded to deplane, said the person who spoke on condition of anonymity. At least five passengers were eventually allowed off, the engineer said.
A video of the incident was circulating on social media, showing a few people leaving the plane. Reuters could not independently verify the veracity of the video.The engineer's wife, also an H-1B visa holder, chose to head to India to care for her sick mother."It's quite tragic. We have built a life here,” he told Reuters.On the popular Chinese social media app Rednote, people on H-1B visas shared their experiences of having to rush back to the U.S. - in some cases just hours after landing in China or another country.
"My feelings are a mix of disappointment, sadness, and frustration," said one woman in a post with a user handle "Emily's Life in NY."The woman said she had boarded a United Airlines flight from New York to Paris, and it started taxiing, but after some back-and-forth with the airline the captain agreed to return to the gate to let her off the aircraft.Feeling what she described to Reuters as "shaken," she canceled her trip to France, abandoning plans with friends, including some who were flying in from China, after she received a letter from her company’s lawyers asking employees abroad to return to the U.S.
Companies including Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabetand Goldman Sachswere among those that sent urgent emails to their employees with travel advisories.Amazon gave guidance to staff on Saturday, after clarity emerged on who would be impacted, that no action was required for staff currently holding H-1B visas, according to a source who had viewed an internal portal. Amazon did not immediately respond to a request for comment outside business hours.
As of Sunday, some of the panic had dissipated, said IBMVice Chairman Gary Cohn, on CBS’s "Face the Nation" program."I think it caused a panic over the weekend because people weren't sure what was going on with the existing H-1B visas," said Cohn. "It's been cleaned up over the weekend, so at this point, there's not a panic in the system."
"I actually think this is a good idea, if you understand the H-1B visa program in the United States," Cohn said. "Historically, it has been a lottery system."The new policy also drew support from NetflixChairman Reed Hastings, who said in a social media post it will eliminate the need for the lottery and provide more certainty for those who get the H-1B visas.
Netflix was not immediately available for comment.
Since taking office in January, Trump has kicked off a wide-ranging immigration crackdown, including moves to limit some forms of legal immigration.This step to reshape the H-1B visa program represents his administration's most visible effort yet to rework temporary employment visas and underscores what critics have said is a protectionist agenda.It is a U-turn from Trump's earlier stance when he sided with one-time ally and TeslaCEOElon Muskin a public dispute over the use of the H-1B visa, saying he fully backed the program for foreign tech workers even though it was opposed by some of his supporters.
Trump administration officials say the visa allows companies to suppress wages, and curbing it opens more jobs for U.S. tech workers. Supporters of the program argue that it brings in highly skilled workers essential to filling talent gaps and keeping firms competitive.In the hours following Trump's proclamation, social media was flooded with debate on the scope of the order and dismay at what many saw as a move that dimmed the United States' allure as a work destination.An anonymous user on Rednote said that their life was like that of an "H-1B slave." The person cut short a holiday in Tokyo to rush back to the U.S., describing it as "a real-life 'Fast & Furious' return to the U.S.," a reference to the hit Hollywood film series about street racing.
Trump's H-1B proclamation read: "Some employers, using practices now widely adopted by entire sectors, have abused the H-1B statute and its regulations to artificially suppress wages, resulting in a disadvantageous labor market for American citizens."The secretary of Homeland Security, Kristi Noem, could exempt petitioners from the fee at her discretion, the proclamation said.Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Friday that companies would have to pay $100,000 per year for H-1B worker visas.
However, White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said in a post on X on Saturday that this was not an annual fee, only a one-time fee that applied to each petition.A Nvidiaengineer, who has lived in the U.S. for 10 years, told Reuters at the San Francisco airport that he had been vacationing in Japan with his wife and infant when he rushed to reschedule his return flight after hearing the news.
"It feels surreal," he said. "Everything is changing in an instant."
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