EU's Russian Gas Ban: Swapping One Dependency for Another

A South Korean court sentenced former first lady Kim Keon Hee on Wednesday to one year and eight months in jail after finding her guilty of accepting Chanel bags and a diamond pendant from Unification Church officials in return for political favours.

The court cleared Kim, the wife of ex-President Yoon Suk Yeol who was ousted from office last year, on charges of stock price manipulation and violating the political funds act.

Prosecutors will appeal against the two not-guilty verdicts, media reports said.

The ruling, which can also be appealed by the former first lady, comes amid a series of trials following investigations into Yoon's brief imposition of martial law in 2024 and related scandals involving the once-powerful couple.

The position of first lady does not come with any formal power allowing involvement in state affairs, but she is a symbolic figure representing the country, the lead judge of a three-justice bench said.

"A person who was in such a position might not always be a role model, but the person must not be a bad example to the public," he said in the ruling.

The court ordered her to pay a 12.8 million won ($8,990) fine and ordered the confiscation of the diamond necklace. Kim has been held in detention since August while she was being investigated by a team led by a special prosecutor.

Prosecutors had demanded 15 years in jail and fines of 2.9 billion won over all the accusations she faced.

The court cleared Kim on charges of manipulating stock prices and violating political funding laws.

Kim had denied all the charges. Her lawyer said the team would review the ruling and decide whether to appeal the bribery conviction.

Kim, clad in a dark suit and wearing a face mask, was escorted by guards into the courtroom at the Seoul Central District Court and sat quietly while the verdict was delivered.

Supporters of Yoon and Kim, who braved freezing temperatures outside the court compound, cheered after the not-guilty verdicts on two of the charges were delivered.

The Unification Church said the gifts were delivered to her without expecting anything. Its leader Han Hak-ja, who is also on trial, has denied that she directed it to bribe Kim.

SHAMAN, POLITICAL BROKER

Kim had drawn intense public scrutiny even before her husband was elected president in 2022 over questions about her academic records and lingering suspicion that she had been long involved in manipulating stock prices.

Her alleged association with a political broker and a person known as a shaman also drew public criticism that the two may be unduly influencing the former first couple.

Yoon, who was ousted from power last April, also faces eight trials on charges including insurrection, after his failed bid to impose martial law in December 2024.

He has appealed against a five-year jail term handed to him this month for obstructing attempts to arrest him after his martial law decree.

At a separate trial this month, prosecutors have sought the death penalty for Yoon on the charge of masterminding an insurrection. The court will rule on the case on February 19.

Yoon has argued it was within his powers as president to declare martial law and that the action was aimed at sounding the alarm over the obstruction of government by opposition parties.

Source: Reuters

The European Union and Vietnam are poised to elevate their relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership, a move expected during European Council President Antonio Costa's official visit to the Southeast Asian nation.

This landmark agreement would be the EU's first of its kind within the ASEAN bloc, signaling a significant deepening of ties. For Vietnam, this is a familiar and strategic move. The country has already inked similar high-level pacts with global powers including the United States, China, Russia, Japan, and Australia as it cements its growing economic and security role. With 17 trade agreements already in place, Vietnam is aggressively pursuing policies to drive double-digit growth for its trade-reliant economy.

A Signal of Stability in a Shifting World

European Council President Antonio Costa emphasized the partnership's global significance, stating it would "send a powerful signal in an unsettled world." He framed the agreement as a mutual choice for "long-term cooperation over short-term hedging."

This push for stronger alliances comes as global trade dynamics have been roiled by protectionist measures, such as the tariffs enacted under former U.S. President Donald Trump, which strained traditional alliances and prompted governments to diversify their diplomatic and economic relationships.

"The geopolitical situation is quite critical," Julien Guerrier, the EU's ambassador to Vietnam, remarked to reporters in Hanoi. He added that the upgraded partnership is "a message to the world that we want to reinforce our partnerships with countries like India, like Vietnam."

The Economic Bedrock of the Partnership

The economic relationship between the EU and Vietnam is already robust and growing. The EU stands as Vietnam’s fourth-largest trading partner, with two-way trade expanding by 10% to 15% annually. According to Vietnamese government data, this figure is on track to reach approximately $73.8 billion in 2025.

Investment flows are equally significant. The EU is one of Vietnam's top 10 foreign investors, with total foreign direct investment (FDI) reaching about $30 billion.

Building on the Success of Free Trade

This new strategic chapter is built on the success of the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), which took effect in 2020. The agreement was a game-changer, eliminating nearly 99% of tariffs and boosting bilateral trade by around 40%, according to Costa.

Beyond commerce, the two sides have also established a Defence and Security Dialogue mechanism, highlighting the relationship's expanding scope.

Future Areas for Deeper Cooperation

Looking ahead, Costa noted that closer diplomatic ties will "provide a stronger platform to deepen cooperation in areas that matter most." The key focus areas for the enhanced partnership will include:

• Green energy

• Advanced technologies

• Skills and education

• Security

The U.S. government is discussing a plan to remove some sanctions on Venezuela's oil industry, a move designed to help American companies boost the nation's crude production. The policy shift follows a $2 billion deal announced by President Trump earlier this month after the ousting of President Nicolas Maduro.

How a Sanctions Rollback Could Work

According to sources familiar with the discussions, the plan involves issuing a general sanction waiver. This would create a legal pathway for energy companies to return to Venezuela without risking penalties from Washington.

Demand for access appears to be strong. A number of major energy firms and service providers have already been applying for individual sanction waivers to operate in the country, including:

• Chevron

• Repsol

• Eni

• Reliance Industries

The Deal's Terms and Investment Outlook

The new arrangement follows President Trump's announcement that Venezuela would be required to supply 50 million barrels of crude oil to the United States as an initial step. Some observers see the plan as a potential U.S. takeover of the Venezuelan oil industry, a development the current Venezuelan government does not seem to oppose.

This week, interim president Delcy Rodriguez stated she expects new investments into the country's oil sector to reach $1.4 billion this year, an increase from $900 million in 2025.

Rebuilding Venezuela's Oil Sector: Costs and Projections

Despite the potential opportunities, not all industry players are enthusiastic. Exxon has notoriously described Venezuela as "uninvestable," a characterization that reportedly angered President Trump.

Revitalizing the nation's oil industry will require massive capital. Estimates suggest that a total investment of around $100 billion is needed over the next decade to reverse the gradual production decline seen in recent years.

If this investment materializes, Venezuela's crude output could grow significantly. According to analysis by Enverus, production could climb to 1.5 million barrels per day by 2035—a 50% increase from current levels. In a best-case scenario, that daily average could rise to as high as 3 million barrels.

Dollar Slides As Political Backstop Weakens

From Tactical Move To Structural Repricing

Debasement Trade Gains Momentum

Market Voices Warn Of Disorder Risks

Options And Trading Data Point To Bearish Conviction

Valuation Signals Add Another Layer

A Dollar Trend Still Unresolved

Source: Bloomberg

Dollar Selloff Gains Momentum After Trump Remarks

From Tactical Weakness To Potential Trend Shift

Global Currency Response Highlights Confidence Shift

Policy Ambiguity And Investor Deterrence

Options Markets Signal Rising Downside Protection

Debt And Stability Concerns Complicate The Outlook

Source: Bloomberg

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is heading to Beijing in a landmark visit aimed at recalibrating the UK's political and business relationship with China. The trip, the first by a British leader since 2018, comes as Western nations navigate an increasingly volatile relationship with the United States.

On the flight to China, Starmer emphasized that Britain cannot ignore the economic opportunities offered by the world's second-largest economy, but must also manage potential security threats.

"It doesn't make sense to stick our head in the ground and bury it in the sand when it comes to China; it's in our interests to engage," he stated. "It's going to be a really important trip for us and we'll make some real progress."

Starmer is accompanied by a delegation of over 50 business leaders. His agenda includes meetings with President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang in Beijing on Thursday, followed by discussions with local executives in Shanghai on Friday.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer outlines his China policy ahead of a high-stakes visit aimed at boosting economic ties.

A Potential Reset in UK-China Relations

This visit could mark a significant turning point for UK-China ties, which have been strained for years. Key points of friction have included Beijing's security crackdown in Hong Kong, its support for Russia in the Ukraine war, and allegations from British security services of Chinese espionage targeting UK officials.

For Beijing, the visit provides an opportunity to position itself as a stable and dependable international partner amidst global uncertainty.

Navigating Tensions with the U.S.

The trip is part of a broader trend of Western diplomacy with China, as countries hedge against the unpredictability of the United States.

Starmer's mission unfolds against a backdrop of recent tensions with former U.S. President Trump. These include his threats over Greenland, criticism of a UK deal to cede the Chagos Archipelago to Mauritius, and comments about NATO allies' combat roles in Afghanistan. Just days before Starmer's arrival, Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Canadian goods if Prime Minister Mark Carney finalized a trade deal with China.

Despite this, Starmer expressed confidence that Britain could deepen its economic relationship with China without alienating Washington, citing the UK's historically close partnership with the U.S. on defense, security, intelligence, and trade.

Economic Pragmatism vs. Security Concerns

When questioned about his agenda, Starmer was reluctant to detail his planned discussions with Chinese leaders, including whether he would raise the case of Hong Kong media tycoon Jimmy Lai or press China to influence Russia over the Ukraine war. However, he indicated he hoped to make "progress" on securing more visa-free travel between the two countries.

Starmer's strategy has drawn sharp criticism from some politicians in both the UK and the U.S., who argue that he is underestimating the security risks posed by China. He has consistently defended the visit as essential to his plan to drive economic growth and improve living standards in Britain.

The Prime Minister also distanced himself from recent comments by Canada's Mark Carney, who suggested at the World Economic Forum in Davos that the rules-based global order was over. Carney had called for middle powers to unite against American hegemony.

"I'm a pragmatist, a British pragmatist applying common sense," Starmer said, rejecting the notion that his government must choose between the U.S. and Europe.