Currency Winners and Losers of The Fed's Big Liquidity Injection

Market Overview: A Rally Fueled by Fed Speculation

Source: CNBC

Russia is preparing a strong response to any "illegal action" by the European Union regarding frozen Russian assets, according to statements made Thursday by Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova.

Zakharova warned that such actions by the EU would "elicit the harshest reaction" from Moscow, emphasizing that Russia is already formulating its response to potential EU moves.

"Any illegal action in relation to our assets will lead to the harshest reaction," the Russian Foreign Ministry stated.

Source: Investing

The former head of the notorious Haitian gang 400 Mawozo was sentenced on Wednesday in a U.S. court to life in prison for masterminding the 2021 kidnapping of a group of American missionaries.

Joly "Yonyon" Germine, 34, was found guilty in May following a 10-day trial of one count of conspiracy to commit hostage-taking and 16 counts of kidnapping a U.S. national for ransom, according to the U.S. Attorney's Office for the District of Columbia.

Germine, who has been in U.S. custody since May 2022, had previously pleaded guilty and was sentenced to 35 years in prison for his role in smuggling U.S. firearms to Haiti and laundering ransom money paid to his gang for other abductions.

Under the sentence he received on Wednesday, in U.S. District Court in Washington, he will not be eligible for supervised release, the federal equivalent of parole.

The life sentence stems from the role he played while imprisoned in Haiti in orchestrating the kidnapping of 16 U.S. citizens, including five children, who were part of the Ohio-based Christian Aid Ministries organization. A Canadian member of the Mennonite missionary group also was taken.

The victims were returning from a visit to an orphanage in Haiti when they were abducted on October 16, 2021, by masked gunmen from 400 Mawozo, which operated in an area east of Port-au-Prince, the Haitian capital, according to evidence presented at trial.

The gang members drove their captives to a field, robbed them at gunpoint and demanded $1 million in ransom for each hostage to secure their freedom, all while consulting by phone with Germine, prosecutors said.

The gang initially threatened on social media to kill the hostages if ransom was not paid. But early on in the hostage negotiations, senior gang leaders offered to accept Germine's release from Haitian custody in lieu of ransom payments.

Most of the missionaries ended up being held for 62 days before they managed to escape under cover of darkness and hike out of the gang's territory. Five of the hostages had been released earlier.

Evidence at trial showed that Germine directed the initial kidnappings, arranged for the locations where the hostages were taken and set the $17 million total ransom demand, knowing it was too high to be paid and would lead to his own negotiated release from prison.

Ultimately, Germine, the former leader and self-described "king" of 400 Mawozo, was turned over by Haiti to the United States at the request of the U.S. government.

Kidnappings for ransom remain rampant in Haiti. The U.N. reported nearly 1,500 last year and almost 2,500 in 2023.

Source: Reuters

China announced on Thursday it is issuing streamlined rare earth export licenses, fulfilling a key promise made during the recent meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping that helped ease trade tensions between the two countries.

In early April, Beijing added several rare earth elements and magnets to its export control list, requiring dual-use licenses for exports. This move caused China's exports of rare earth magnets to drop significantly in April and May, forcing some global automakers to temporarily halt parts of their production.

"China has been actively making use of general licenses and other facilitation measures to promote compliant trade in dual-use items," state news outlet Xinhua reported on Thursday, citing a Commerce Ministry weekly briefing.

Commerce Ministry spokesman He Yadong told reporters at the weekly briefing, "As long as export license applications for rare earth-related items are for civilian use, the government has given timely approval."

The new general licenses are designed to allow more exports under year-long permits for individual customers, according to reports from early November.

Source: Investing

ING's base call: UK economy to grow more slowly in 2026

We expect growth to slow to 0.9% next year (from 1.4% this year), for three reasons.

First, spending power is expected to stagnate; real household disposable incomes are set to grow by 0.5% in 2026, versus 1.5% this year. Wage growth is falling quickly, while employment growth is likely to be negligible. Rate cuts are a slow burner. Most mortgages are fixed for five years, while savings income will decline more quickly.

Second, the public sector – having been a key offset to private sector weakness in 2025 – will be less supportive. Real departmental spending will grow at half the rate seen in 2024 and 2025, while income tax is rising as a share of GDP. The deficit is set to drop a full percentage point to circa 3.5%. Fiscal policy will be a drag in 2026.

Finally, business investment is likely to weaken, at least in the first half of the year. Confidence has fallen on the delivery of – and uncertainty about – future tax hikes. Global challenges aren't helping.

Our risky call: Bank of England hawks proven wrong as inflation recedes

We expect inflation to fall from 3.6% now to almost 2% in April. Food inflation has likely peaked. The marked fall in wage growth points to lower services inflation, helped by more contained regulatory price hikes and slower rental growth. The government's decision to lower energy bills should trim 0.3pp off headline CPI too.

Hawks at the Bank of England fear that elevated inflation rates in 2025 – particularly for food – will fuel a more sustained episode of price pressure akin to 2022. We disagree. The jobs market is considerably weaker. Firms' pricing power has receded. Though a risky call after several years of sticky inflation, we think 2026 will finally show the UK as less of an outlier. The Bank is set to narrowly vote on a December rate cut. And as the tide turns on inflation, we expect two more next year – and the risk is we get more.

Our bold call: Leadership risk sparks renewed UK bond sell-off

Twelve months ago, our bold call correctly argued that more tax rises were inevitable in 2025. The same isn't necessarily true in 2026. Adverse economic forecasts are less likely to force the chancellor's hand, given greater 'headroom' under the fiscal rules. The fact that issuance and the deficit will be falling next year is a reminder that the UK isn't the "next France".

Yet the Autumn Budget failed to address many longer-term challenges. Public spending pressures are growing. Taxes on average workers are comparably low. That, against a backdrop of mounting political pressure, means a change of political leadership can't be ruled out. May's local elections are a key flashpoint.

Changing leaders isn't easy; 20% of Labour MPs would need to back a rival candidate when none currently exists. But were it to happen – or even if the risk of it rises – bond yields would likely spike on the perception that a more left-leaning PM would hike borrowing. This would be against a backdrop of growing populism on the political right.

Politics is the biggest risk for UK bond markets in 2026.

Source: ING

Key points:

Tesla'sUK car registrations dropped in November, industry data showed on Thursday, following steep declines in other European markets in the month amid intense competition particularly from Chinese rivals.

November registrations, a proxy for sales, of Tesla cars in the UK fell 19% to 3,784 from 4,680 cars a year ago, preliminary data from research group New AutoMotive data showed.

Data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) showed a 17.2% year-on-year decline to 3,772 Tesla sales in the UK, lagging other legacy automakers and Chinese rivals.

The numbers are slightly different as SMMT and New AutoMotive use different sources of data and methods of calculation.

AGING LINEUP, CHINA RIVALRY ERODE TESLA'S UK SALES

The U.S. EV maker, which recently started rolling out new versions of its best-selling Model Y SUV, has been struggling with an aging lineup and growing competition in a crowded European market, especially from new entrants from China.

There are now more than 150 electric models available to British motorists, according to EV buying advice site Electrifying.com.

Amid the assortment of EV brands, registrations by Tesla's Chinese peer BYD, which also sells hybrids and plug-in hybrids, more than tripled in November.

What are Tesla's biggest markets in Europe?

Customer sentiment for Tesla has also fallen in recent months, after CEOElon Muskpublicly praised right-wing political figures and after his short stint as head of the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency.

The brand's November drop in registrations is in line with a 20% fall in Germany and a slump of almost 60% in France and other European markets, which were only partly offset by record-breaking sales in Norway.

Tesla's car sales falling in most European markets

Overall, total new car registrations in Britain fell 6.3% to 146,780 vehicles for November, according to New AutoMotive, while SMMT logged a slight 1.6% decline to 151,154 vehicles.

Those of battery-electric cars fell 1.1% to 38,742 vehicles, while plug-in hybrid registrations jumped 3.8% to 16,526, New Automotive data showed.

"On the surface, some consumers may feel that BEVs have increased in cost, but this is not necessarily the case," said Jamie Hamilton, automotive partner and head of electric vehicles at Deloitte.

"The new EV mileage charge will increase running costs of electric vehicles, but changes to the Expensive Car Supplement threshold may mean some drivers are actually better off over the course of their lease period," Hamilton added.

Source: TradingView