Crypto scores a victory as stablecoin legislation stays alive in Senate

Do any Republicans remember 2018?That’s the year President Trump and his GOP allies in Congress expected voters to reward them for cutting everybody’s taxes. But voters weren’t feeling the love and delivered Republicans a resounding midterm election defeat.A rerun is now underway.

Like the 2017 tax bill Trump signed, the 2025 version will primarily benefit wealthy Americans. There are sops to lower earners, as there were in 2017. But the lesson from the first Trump tax-cut bill is that most voters won’t notice small changes — and they’ll catch on if politicians pat them on the head while directing most of the benefits of a tax-cut package to wealthy donors and the shareholder class.

The 2017 tax cuts were a priority for Republicans but not necessarily for the US electorate. Americans disapproved of the package even before it passed, according to Gallup. Net approval of the tax cuts remained negative throughout 2018.

Why would anybody disapprove of a tax cut? Because people thought the 2017 law disproportionately favored businesses and the wealthy. In reality, it did. The law cut the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% and boosted corporate profits by billions of dollars. The law cut tax rates for most individuals, but the wealthy benefited the most. After-tax earnings of the top 20% of earners rose by 2.9%, according to the Tax Policy Center. Earnings for the lowest quintile rose just 0.4%.

Big and beautiful? President Trump speaks to reporters before a House Republican conference meeting on May 20 at the US Capitol in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson) · ASSOCIATED PRESS

Republicans made some specious claims about the tax law that skeptical voters didn’t buy. Trump said that “the benefits of tax reform go to the middle class, not to the highest earners.” That was patently false. Mitch McConnell, Senate majority leader at the time, predicted that the tax cuts would be a “revenue producer,” on net, because they would stimulate so much new growth that federal tax revenues would soar. That didn’t happen. Instead, the law added nearly $2 trillion to the national debt.

The 2017 tax cut law probably would have been more popular if it had excluded any tax breaks for top earners, who didn’t need them. It should have made middle-class tax cuts permanent, like the business tax cuts, instead of letting them expire at the end of 2025. The business tax cuts were arguably prudent because they brought those in line with rates in other advanced economies. But it could have tightened up carve-outs such as the carried interest provision, which is a boon to private equity firms.

The law did cut taxes for 65% of Americans, and Republicans figured voters would thank them in the 2018 midterm elections. Bad guess. Democrats snatched 40 seats in the House of Representatives, their biggest gain since 1974. The “blue wave” gave Dems control of the House and an effective block on Trump’s legislative agenda. Several factors fueled the Democratic surge, including Trump’s rocky first year in the White House. But tax cuts clearly didn’t help Republicans, and the impression that they favored the rich may have hurt.

Source: Kitco

Source: theblock

David Lammy with Israeli President Isaac Herzog

Source: Zero Hedge

Oil's Choppy Trading

source : bloomberg

Natural Gas Futures Bounce After Technical Support Holds and Traders Reposition

Did Support at the 200-Day Moving Average Trigger the Bounce?

Weather Outlook Points to Weak Near-Term Demand

How Are Traders Positioning Ahead of Memorial Day and Contract Expiration?

Short-Term Outlook: Bullish Rebound Faces Resistance

Source: fxempire

Here is a summary of the major elements of the package, along with the impact on the budget over the next 10 years of the plan, as estimated by the Joint Committee on Taxation and the Congressional Budget Office.

TAX CUTS AND EXEMPTIONS

Makes permanent the lower income tax rates in Trump's 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that are currently due to expire at the end of 2025. (Cost: $2.2 trillion)

Extends the increased alternative minimum tax exemption. (Cost: $1.4 trillion)

Extends the standard deduction and boosts it by an additional $1,000 to $1,500 until 2029. (Cost: $1.3 trillion)

Extends and increases tax break for owners of "pass-through" businesses, such as sole proprietorships and LLCs (Cost: $809 billion)

Expands the Child Tax Credit to $2,500 from $1,000 until 2029, and keeps it at $2,000 after that, indexed to inflation. (Cost: $797 billion)

Raises the estate tax exemption from $14 million to $15 million. (Cost: $212 billion)

Extends tax breaks for multinational corporations. (Cost: $174 billion)

Exempts taxes on overtime pay until 2029. (Cost: $124 billion)

Extends other 2017 business tax breaks. (Cost: $99 billion)

Creates a new $4,000 deduction for seniors. (Cost: $72 billion)

Exempts taxes on interest payments on loans for domestic autos until 2029. (Cost: $58 billion)

Exempts taxes on some tipped income until 2029. (Cost: $40 billion)

Exempts up to $5,000 for contributions to scholarship funds for private schools. (Cost: $20.4 billion)

Allows parents to contribute up to $5,000 tax-free each year to "MAGA Accounts" to be used for a child's school and other costs when they reach adulthood. (Cost: $17.2 billion)

Allows taxpayers to deduct up to $30,000 for state and local tax payments, up from $10,000 now. (Additional revenue relative to pre-2017 tax code, when there was no limit: $916 billion)

SAVINGS AND NEW REVENUES

Extends 2017 elimination of personal exemption deduction. (Savings: $1.9 trillion)

Ends tax breaks for electric vehicles, clean electricity and green energy. Phases out a tax break for nuclear power starting in 2029. (Savings: $916 billion)

Restricts health benefits for some immigrants. (Savings: $117 billion)

Imposes stricter eligibility requirements for Affordable Care Act exchange coverage. (Savings: $82 billion)

Raises taxes on the biggest private university endowments from 1.4% to 21%. (New revenue: $22.6 billion)

Imposes a new 5% tax on funds sent by immigrants to their home countries. (New revenue: $22.2 billion)

Eliminates taxes on firearm silencer sales . (Cost: $1.4 billion)

Gives the government the power to end the tax-exempt status of "terrorist-supporting organizations."

TOTAL COST OF TAX CUTS: $5.6 TRILLION

MEDICAID

Requires able-bodied adults who have no dependents to work, volunteer or be in school at least 80 hours a month starting in 2029.

Bolsters verification efforts that check whether participants and healthcare providers are eligible to participate, and removes rules that make it easier to enroll.

Excludes non-citizens from the program and penalizes states that use their own funds to provide coverage to illegal immigrants.

Blocks regulations that required minimum staffing levels at nursing homes and other long-term care facilities.

Prohibits funding for gender transition therapies for minors.

Prohibits payments to large providers like Planned Parenthood that specialize in birth control, abortion and other reproductive health services.

Limits state taxes on providers that are used to raise the federal government's contribution.

TOTAL SAVINGS: $715 billion. Enrollment would drop by at least 7.7 million people from its current level of 71 million people.

ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT, COMMUNICATIONS

Cancels funding for green-energy grant programs in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, including vehicle manufacturing, home efficiency upgrades, electricity transmission, wind power.

Creates incentives for pipelines, natural gas exports and exploration.

Repeals grant programs for purchasing electric heavy-duty vehicles.

Repeals grants to reduce air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions.

Repeals fuel-efficiency standards for automobiles and pickup trucks.

Makes more electromagnetic spectrum bands for communication available for auction.

Prohibits states from regulating artificial intelligence.

TOTAL SAVINGS: $197 billion

HOMELAND SECURITY

Border wall construction (Cost: $46.5 billion)

Surveillance towers, drones and other border-security equipment (Cost: $6.3 billion)

Increase staffing at U.S. Customs and Border Protection from 46,400 to 55,000 (Cost: $6.2 billion)

Increase law enforcement protection of the president (Cost: $300 million)

TOTAL COST: $67 billion

IMMIGRATION AND JUSTICE

Imposes new fees of up to $5,000 for immigrants' work permits, court hearings, applications for asylum and other matters.

Provides funding to hire 10,000 new immigration enforcement officers, and funding for 1 million more deportations.

Provides additional funds for government agencies to investigate visa fraud, run criminal background checks and DNA testing, and supervise unaccompanied children.

Prevents federal courts from enforcing contempt citations related to injunctions or temporary restraining orders against the government.

TOTAL SAVINGS: $110 billion

MILITARY

Increase spending on shipbuilding (Cost: $32 billion)

Air and missile defense (Cost: $24 billion)

Munitions (Cost: $19.5 billion)

Nuclear weapons (Cost: $12.6 billion)

Border security (Cost: $5 billion)

TOTAL COST: $144 billion

FOOD ASSISTANCE

Increased work requirements for some of the 41 million participants in the SNAP food aid program

Shift some costs from federal government to states starting in 2028

SAVINGS: $230 billion

EDUCATION

Changes student loan repayment plans (Savings: $295 billion)

Imposes borrowing limits for some student loan programs (Savings: $51 billion)

Tightens eligibility for Pell Grants (Savings: $8 billion)

Limits the government's ability to cancel student debt (Savings: $32 billion)

TOTAL SAVINGS: $349 billion

Source: TradingView