Consumer Sentiment Tumbles Close to Record Lows in Latest U Michigan Survey

Economic

Summary:

The November survey showed the index of consumer sentiment at 50.4, down a startling 6.2% from last month and it plunged nearly 30% from a year ago.

Consumer sentiment dropped to a three-year low and close to the lowest point ever recorded by the University of Michigan one month into the government shutdown, with pessimism over personal finances and anticipated business conditions weighing on Americans.

The November survey showed the index of consumer sentiment at 50.4, down a startling 6.2% from last month and it plunged nearly 30% from a year ago.

Economists were caught off guard. Those polled had expected a slight month-to-month increase for a reading of 54.2.

“With the federal government shutdown dragging on for over a month, consumers are now expressing worries about potential negative consequences for the economy," said Joanne Hsu, Surveys of Consumers Director at University of Michigan. “This month’s decline in sentiment was widespread throughout the population, seen across age, income, and political affiliation.”

The one exception, Hsu said, were those with large stock holdings. Big tech companies, particularly in artificial intelligence, have driven explosive returns for investors. The tech-heavy Nasdaq is up 17% this year.

“The top 20% of households by income drive 40% of consumer spending, and we think the wealth effect from the buoyant stock market has strengthened this year,” according to Michael Pearce, deputy chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.

The nation's largest retail trade group on Thursday forecast a trillion-dollar Christmas, with sales during November and December seen growing up to 4.2%.

The UMich survey showed that year-ahead inflation expectations inched up to 4.7% in November from 4.6% last month, and long-run inflation expectations declined to 3.6% from 3.9% last month.

James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, said the report's key takeaway is jobs.

“Seventy-one percent of households now expect unemployment to rise over the coming (12 months) while only 9% expect unemployment to fall. That gives a net reading of 62% predicting higher unemployment versus 52% last month," Knightley said. "A huge increase which ... has historically been the prelude to an ugly outcome for jobs.”

The first Friday of the month is typically when the government releases its key jobs report, but all data reports are on hold during the shutdown. Economists have turned to private sources which are showing that job seekers are taking longer to land a job in a " low hires, low fires " market.

At least one economist noted a change in methodology may have impacted the survey results.

“These numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, given the likely temporary drag on confidence from the ongoing government shutdown, plus the Michigan survey’s switch to online rather than phone-based sampling last year, which seems to have introduced a structural break that produces more downbeat results," said Oliver Allen, senior U.S. economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics.

Source: AP

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Adam

Economic

"Trump will fix it." That was the slogan hammered home last fall, in the final stretch of the presidential election. Donald Trump had it easy then. With Americans facing a return of inflation since 2021, it was easy for him to denounce "Biden's inflation" and say that he would solve the problem.

We know what happened next: he won the election hands down, with the added bonus of control of the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Control of Congress, a majority in the Supreme Court, and a willingness to push the limits of executive power allowed him to roll out his agenda: tariffs, tax cuts, tougher immigration policy, renovation of the White House... he was able to advance his priorities without encountering much resistance.

But just over a year after his re-election, his popularity has fallen significantly in the polls. While he may claim a number of victories (reduced immigration, tax cuts, trade deals), the results are more mixed on his main promise - that of lower prices.

Inflation is still around 2.5%-3%. This is a form of stabilization, of course. But prices are still much higher than they were four or five years ago. Only gasoline prices have fallen, in line with oil prices. And tariffs could keep inflation at slightly higher levels (the goods component of inflation indices has been rising for several months, offsetting the decline in energy and housing prices).

The economy is the primary concern for Americans. And when we say the economy, we are not referring to macro statistics. Otherwise, with 3% growth and 4% unemployment at the end of his term, Joe Biden would have been re-elected hands down. It is more about the cost of living. In other words, how households feel on a daily basis.

The economy is by far the number one concern for Americans.

For Republicans, the issue of the cost of living has come back to haunt them with the Democrats' victory in several local elections this week.

First, there was Zohran Mamdani's triumph in New York. Although the city is a Democratic stronghold, Mamdani identifies himself as a socialist (and therefore very left-wing in the United States). Above all, he made affordability the focus of his campaign, promising free buses, rent freezes, municipal grocery stores, and more...

Then there was the victory of two Democratic governors, in Virginia and New Jersey. This did not come as a huge surprise, but the gap with the Republicans is notable. Their campaigns also focused on the cost of living.

The case of Virginia is interesting. It is a state where many civil servants live. A population affected by DOGE layoffs and now the shutdown.

Donald Trump directly links the government shutdown to the Republicans' setbacks: "Trump not being on the ballot and the shutdown are the two reasons Republicans lost the election tonight," he wrote on Truth Social after the results were announced.

In any case, these local elections are a first warning for Republicans a year before the midterms. Donald Trump wants to avoid a repeat of the scenario from his first term: in 2018, he lost the majority in the House of Representatives, which then slowed down his legislative agenda.

Source: marketscreener

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Adam

Commodity

Since then, prices have eased roughly 13.5%, slipping from over $54 to just below $47 an ounce. For some, that pullback looks like fatigue. But for seasoned traders at The Gold & Silver Club, this is no sign of weakness – it’s what they call “healthy bull-market digestion” – a brief pause before the next explosive leg higher.

“This isn’t the end of the move,” says Lars Hansen, Head of Research at The Gold & Silver Club. “It’s the reset before the next acceleration. Savvy traders see pullbacks like this for what they are – opportunities to reload before the next phase begins.”

Smart Money Is Quietly Positioning for the Next Breakout

Silver’s investment case differs sharply from Gold’s. Beyond its monetary heritage, Silver’s modern strength lies in its industrial utility – and that is precisely where demand is surging.

The white metal sits at the centre of transformative global industries: Clean Energy, Artificial Intelligence, Defence and High-Tech manufacturing. According to data from The Silver Institute, global demand climbed from 993 million ounces in 2016 to 1.16 billion in 2024, while supply slipped from 1.06 billion to 1.02 billion over the same period – flipping a surplus into a structural deficit.

“Structural deficits are now colliding with a once-in-a-generation demand boom,” notes Hansen. “A clean break above $50 – a key historical resistance level – unlocks a direct path back to the $54.50 record high. Once that level gives way, $75 and even $100 an ounce will become the next long-term Supercycle targets.”

Dollar Crash Fuels Flight to Hard Assets

A crucial tailwind behind Silver’s meteoric rise is the ongoing collapse of the U.S dollar. The greenback has already fallen more than 11% in 2025 – its steepest annual decline since the early 1970s – and Morgan Stanley expects another 10% drop by 2026 as global confidence erodes.

Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” policies, combined with record fiscal deficits and mounting political pressure on the Federal Reserve to slash rates, have undermined the dollar’s long-standing safe-haven appeal.

In a recent market note, The Gold & Silver Club observed: “The U.S dollar has entered a long-term bear market, igniting a seismic shift into hard assets. Gold and Silver – unlike fiat currency – cannot be devalued, duplicated or destroyed by monetary policy.”

A Strategic Reclassification Changes the Game

In a landmark decision, the United States has officially added Silver, Copper and Uranium to its critical minerals list – elevating Silver from an industrial Commodity to a strategic resource vital to national security and technological independence.

“This reclassification could trigger government stockpiling and tax incentives,” says Hansen. “With over 70% of U.S Silver refined overseas and China dominating global capacity, Washington’s move adds a powerful new bullish catalyst to Silver’s long-term outlook.”

By joining the same tier of strategic importance as Lithium and Rare Earths, Silver now carries a geopolitical premium unseen in decades.

The Most Critical Accumulation Window Since 2011

With rate cuts looming, the U.S dollar under pressure and supply deficits deepening, analysts at The Gold & Silver Club believe Silver is entering its most lucrative accumulation phase in over a decade.

“From now until year-end could be the most rewarding stretch for precious metals since the post-pandemic boom,” Hansen concludes. “The last time Silver looked this cheap, it doubled within months. History could be about to repeat.”

This is the moment decisive traders have been waiting for. The next historic move in Silver is already unfolding – and those still waiting on the sidelines won’t just miss a rally – they’ll miss the greatest wealth transfer of our generation.

Source: fxempire

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Justin

Economic

East West Bancorp's consensus analyst price target edged down marginally from $125.40 to $125.20, reflecting evolving views on the company's outlook. The modest adjustment comes as analysts weigh the impact of continued strong fundamentals against ongoing challenges in the sector. Stay tuned to discover how investors and observers can stay ahead as the narrative around East West Bancorp evolves.

Stay updated as the Fair Value for East West Bancorp shifts by adding it to your watchlist or portfolio. Alternatively, explore our Community to discover new perspectives on East West Bancorp.

What Wall Street Has Been Saying

Analyst sentiment for East West Bancorp has generally leaned positive in recent weeks, with several firms raising their price targets following solid quarterly results and improved bank guidance. However, not all views are uniformly bullish, and some firms remain cautious or maintain a more neutral outlook, citing broader sector risks and valuation considerations.

Bullish Takeaways:

BofA raised its price target to $133 from $128 after what it described as "another beat and raise quarter." This reflects increased confidence in earnings growth and forward guidance.
Citi lifted its price targets twice, most recently to $137 from $124. Analysts cited strong deposit growth and higher net interest income, and emphasized improved management execution and outlook transparency.
Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a $124 price target. The firm noted a "constructive view" on the macro backdrop that could support continued upside and robust loan growth across US banks.
Morgan Stanley hiked its price target to $126 from $111, seeing a steepening yield curve and lower short-term rates as an ideal backdrop for midcap banks like East West Bancorp. The firm also upgraded the industry view to Attractive.

Bearish Takeaways:

Despite positive results and upward price target revisions, both Truist and Piper Sandler maintained neutral or Hold ratings. They suggested that upside may already be reflected in the current share price and that near-term risks persist.
Truist, while raising its target to $116 from $112, continues to flag sector challenges including skewed investor preference toward larger banks and limited catalysts for near-term outperformance.
Piper Sandler increased its target to $104 from $100 but keeps a Neutral rating, noting that revised guidance is broadly in line with previous expectations and that the outlook for further estimate increases remains muted.

Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there's more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives or begin writing your own Narrative!

NasdaqGS:EWBC Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025

What's in the News

BofA raised its price target for East West Bancorp to $133 from $128 after the company posted another strong quarter and delivered higher forecasts for earnings per share through 2026.
Truist increased its price target to $116 from $112, citing greater confidence in East West Bancorp's higher net interest income, increased fee revenues, lower expenses, and expanded share buybacks after the third quarter report.
East West Bancorp completed the repurchase of 258,000 shares for $25 million in the third quarter of 2025, bringing the total to 7.37% of outstanding shares repurchased since 2020.
East West Bank announced a new partnership with Worldpay to expand payment solutions and enhance transaction capabilities for commercial and business customers in-store and online.

How This Changes the Fair Value For East West Bancorp

Consensus Analyst Price Target edged down marginally from $125.40 to $125.20.
Discount Rate increased slightly from 6.78% to 6.96%.
Revenue Growth projection declined modestly from 10.22% to 10.15%.
Net Profit Margin expanded a touch from 44.17% to 44.30%.
Future P/E ratio inched up from 13.45x to 13.48x.

Never Miss an Update: Follow The Narrative

Narratives offer a smarter way to invest by telling the story behind a company's numbers and forecasts. On Simply Wall St, any investor can craft or follow a Narrative, an easy-to-read, constantly updated summary that connects East West Bancorp's business story, financial projections, and current fair value. This helps you compare fair value to the latest market price and decide when to buy or sell. Narratives adapt quickly as news or results come in, giving you a living, actionable insight on the Community page.

Discover why following the original East West Bancorp Narrative keeps you ahead of market moves:

See how rising net interest income and digital banking partnerships are driving resilience and growth.
Understand the risks of heavy commercial real estate exposure and rapid sector change in banking technology.
Track updated forecasts and analyst assumptions for revenue, profit margins, and fair value, refreshed as new data arrives.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Adam

Cryptocurrency

The US government shutdown has many consequences — and this time, bitcoin’s price is one of them. Now stretching past 36 days and marking the longest shutdown in US history, the standoff has quietly drained liquidity from the financial markets.

The reaction was swift. In a market already dominated by fear, BTC dropped 10.5% between Monday and Tuesday to $99,000, before recovering to nearly $103,000. Whether this proves to be the start of a deeper correction or simply another mid-cycle shakeout will depend on three things: how quickly liquidity returns once Washington reopens, and whether investor attention and technical strength can follow.

How the shutdown drains liquidity

Bitcoin has long mirrored global liquidity cycles, typically lagging the global M2 money supply by two to three months. With M2 still expanding — partly driven by China’s record 8.4% y-o-y M2 expansion in September 2025 — the broader macro backdrop remains supportive. Yet on shorter timeframes, local liquidity shocks in the US can override global trends.

The shutdown has pushed the Treasury General Account (TGA) above $1 trillion, which has drained cash reserves from the Federal Reserve and tightened conditions in overnight funding markets. Short-term borrowing rates, such as SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) and repo, remain high, reflecting ongoing market volatility. With reserves now below $2.9 trillion, funding stress is approaching levels last seen in late 2018, when overnight rates briefly spiked out of control.

This dynamic matters because when money moves into the TGA, it leaves the banking system. The longer the government remains shut, the less cash circulates — exactly the opposite of what risk assets like bitcoin thrive on.

Some near-term relief may come as month-end pressures fade, but reserve levels are already so low that volatility is likely to persist. The latest Treasury announcement, issued on November 3rd, showed that the Treasury expected to end the year with approximately $850bn in its account. When the government finally reopens, the TGA should decline again, injecting at least $150bn of liquidity back into the system.

Bitcoin momentum needs to return

Simply restoring liquidity to normal levels may not be enough to ignite a new bitcoin rally. The asset also needs to regain momentum and investor attention.

According to the latest Wintermute report, even as global liquidity expands and central banks pivot toward rate cuts, most new capital is flowing into equities and AI, not crypto. Analysts highlight two key indicators to watch: the behavior of ETF investors and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) — companies that hold significant bitcoin reserves on their balance sheets.

So far, the picture isn’t encouraging for funds. Bitcoin ETFs have experienced steady outflows, with between $200m and $500m exiting daily since last Wednesday, according to data from Coinglass.

Bitcoin dips below $100K as US liquidity dries up_1

On the DAT front, however, there may be a glimmer of optimism. Strategy Inc. ($MSTR), founded by Michael Saylor, announced on November 3 a new preferred stock offering called STRE — a euro-denominated, 10 % coupon instrument. The company plans to issue 3.5 million shares at €100 each, potentially injecting fresh liquidity into the bitcoin ecosystem while opening its “digital credit factory” to the euro markets.

BTC technical signals promise resilience

A 21 % pullback from October 6’s all-time high of $126,400 is hardly alarming given bitcoin’s typical volatility. What concerns traders more are rare technical signals now flashing.

One is the 50-week moving average, a key long-term support line. Analyst Kevin Svensen notes that bitcoin has tested this level twice in the current cycle without breaking its trend. “This is the lowest BTC can go without doing critical damage,” he wrote, adding that a weekly close above the 50-week SMA (around $103 K) would confirm the uptrend’s survival.

Bitcoin dips below $100K as US liquidity dries up_2

At the time of writing, BTC is resisting above that threshold, offering some relief to traders who hope that a strong weekly close could mark the start of another leg higher.

Others view the recent correction as a mid-cycle reset, rather than the start of a bear market. Trader Merlijn The Trader, who tracks 30 top-cycle indicators, including the Pi Cycle Top, Puell Multiple, and MVRV Z-score, notes that none have triggered yet. He argues that the market has not experienced its usual “euphoria phase” that typically precedes a cycle peak. In his words, “This is mid-cycle energy, not exit-liquidity season.”

Source: marketscreener

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Economic

Wall Street's main indexes extended losses to a second session on Friday, and were set for weekly declines, as concerns about the economy and sky-high valuations in the technology sector soured sentiment.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq (.IXIC) declined almost 2% on Thursday after Wall Street executives earlier this week warned a market correction could be on the way.

The S&P 500 and the Dow are both set for their steepest weekly loss in four, while the Nasdaq is poised for its worst weekly performance since March.

"There is a continuation of the concern of a possible pullback... it's traditional early November weakness triggered by elevated valuations and the running out of catalysts to support or propel the market," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.

Optimism around artificial intelligence has pushed markets to all-time highs this year, but concerns over monetization of the technology and circular spending within the industry has dampened enthusiasm for U.S. stocks in recent days.

Tech stocks such as Nvidia (NVDA.O) and Broadcom (AVGO.O) fell 2.8% and 2.2%, respectively. The information technology sector (.SPLRCT), and the broader semiconductor index (.SOX), were set for their biggest weekly declines in seven months.

At 10:01 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 138.50 points, or 0.30%, to 46,773.80, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 46.63 points, or 0.69%, to 6,673.69 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) lost 278.31 points, or 1.21%, to 22,775.68.

The CBOE Volatility Index (.VIX) , Wall Street's fear gauge, hit its highest level in more than two weeks.

Tesla (TSLA.O) shareholders approved the largest corporate pay package in history for CEO Elon Musk. Shares fell 3.3% tracking broader market sentiment and weighed down the consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) sector.

On the earnings front, data compiled by LSEG until Thursday showed 83% of 424 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported results so far have beaten Wall Street expectations, the highest rate of better-than-expected results since the second quarter of 2021.

Expedia (EXPE.O) jumped 16% to top the S&P 500 after the online travel platform boosted its forecast for full-year revenue growth and posted third-quarter profit above expectations.

ECONOMIC CONCERNS LINGER

The longest U.S. government shutdown in history has led to an information gap, with Federal Reserve policymakers divided on the future of monetary policy as private data paints a mixed picture of the economy.

The economic impact of the shutdown was far worse than expected, White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett said in an interview with Fox Business Network.

Meanwhile, the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index was 50.3 this month, compared with estimates of 53.2 according to economists polled by Reuters.

"The question is, will it exacerbate an economic slowdown within the U.S.? There is a lot of uncertainty... it's not just the Fed that is flying blind, it is the American consumer and investor as well," said Stovall.

Among others, Block (XYZ.N) slumped 10.5% after missing third-quarter profit expectations, and Take-Two Interactive (TTWO.O) declined 6.6% after delaying its popular video game GTA VI to November 2026.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.29-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.99-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

The S&P 500 posted 8 new 52-week highs and 10 new lows while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 18 new highs and 211 new lows.

Source: reuters

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Justin

Central Bank

Americans expect inflation to moderate in the near term while expressing concerns about the job market and their personal finances, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York report released Friday.

The bank's Survey of Consumer Expectations for October showed households anticipate inflation to reach 3.2% a year from now, down from September's 3.4% expectation. Three and five-year inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3% for both time horizons.

Despite the improved inflation outlook, respondents showed increased concern about employment conditions. They predicted a higher unemployment rate in the coming year compared to the previous month's survey and anticipated greater difficulty finding work if they became unemployed, though they expressed less worry about losing their current jobs than in September.

The heightened concern about future employment was particularly pronounced among respondents under age 60 and those with some college education.

The survey also revealed growing pessimism about both current and future financial situations. However, Americans reported that credit is now easier to obtain and expected it to become even more accessible in the future.

Expectations for future earnings and income were mixed in October. Households anticipated declines in gasoline and food prices, while the expected year-ahead increase in medical costs reached its highest level since February 2023.

The survey was conducted throughout October amid the government shutdown and growing concerns about job market conditions. Last week, the Fed reduced its interest rate target by a quarter percentage point to the 3.75%-4.00% range, aiming to support employment while maintaining downward pressure on inflation, which remains above the Fed's 2% target.

Fed officials have indicated that the relative stability of longer-term inflation expectations gives them confidence that inflation will eventually return to target, as these expectations significantly influence current price pressures.