China’s Export Growth Hits Six-Month High As Trade War Escalates

Economic

Forex

Summary:

Chinese shipments overseas grew at the fastest in six months, far exceeding forecasts in a sign of resilience that’s giving Beijing a stronger hand in the latest trade war with the US.

Exports rose 8.3% in September from a year earlier, according to data from the General Administration of Customs on Monday. That was faster than the 6.6% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists and shows there’s no slowdown yet in the record-breaking flood of goods leaving China’s shores.

“China’s exports have remained resilient despite US tariffs, thanks to a diversified export market and strong competitiveness,” said Michelle Lam, Greater China economist at Societe Generale SA. “The limited impact from US tariffs on overall trade so far has likely emboldened China to take a tougher stance in US-China trade negotiations.”

The strength of demand from markets other than the US means that Chinese firms should be less affected by the further increase in tariffs threatened by President Donald Trump. Higher sales overseas are also providing a boost to a domestic economy in deflation and still struggling to reverse a decline in housing demand and prices.

China is set to announce third-quarter data for economic activity on Oct. 20, with most analysts predicting a slowdown from the first half of the year. Still, a strong showing in the first two quarters all but ensures China will reach the official growth target of around 5%.

Imports grew 7.4% in September, far more than forecast, leaving a surplus of $90.5 billion.

“The current external environment remains grim and complex,” Wang Jun, deputy head of the customs authority, told reporters in Beijing. “Foreign trade faces rising uncertainty and difficulties. Taking into consideration a high base from last year, we need hard work to stabilize trade development in the fourth quarter.”

China unveiled wide-ranging global export controls on products containing even traces of certain rare earths last week, prompting Trump to fire back by threatening to cancel a planned in-person meeting with President Xi Jinping — their first in six years. The US leader also announced plans to put an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods, along with sweeping curbs on “any and all critical software.”

The Trump administration later signaled openness to a deal with China to quell fresh trade tensions while also warning that recent export controls announced by Beijing were a major barrier to talks.

Bloomberg Economics estimates that a 100% US tariff hike would lift effective rates on Chinese goods to around 140% — a level that shuts down trade. While the current rate is 25 percentage points above the world average, China’s dominance of manufacturing has kept its exports flowing.

“A durable escalation could prolong China’s deflation, potentially triggering more policy rebalancing efforts,” Morgan Stanley economists led by Robin Xing said in a report before the data release. “In the case of China’s strict rare earth curbs and the US’ durable 100% tariff hike, China’s export growth could decelerate quickly via the direct tariff shock and global supply chain disruption.”

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Glendon

Economic

Commodity

China's crude oil imports rose 3.9% in September from a year earlier as refineries operated at their highest utilisation rates this year.

The world’s largest crude importer, China brought in 47.25 million metric tons of oil in September, data from the General Administration of Customs showed on Monday, or the equivalent of 11.5 million barrels per day.

China’s refinery utilisation rates in September climbed to the year's highest, with relatively high levels of daily gasoline and diesel output, though supply continued to outpace demand, Chinese consulting firm Oilchem said.

Atmospheric and vacuum distillation units at Chinese refineries used 73.45% of capacity, up 1.28 percentage points from August and 3.22 percentage points from a year earlier, Oilchem said.

State-owned refineries’ utilisation rose 3.55 percentage points on the year to 81.05% of capacity, while independent refiners increased their utilisation by 3.02 percentage points to 62.17%, Oilchem added.

A total of 14 refineries underwent maintenance in September, two fewer than in August, involving a combined capacity of 70.4 million tons per year, down 12.3 million from the previous month, the consulting firm said.

However, China’s seaborne crude oil imports fell in September on the month to their lowest since May, with shipments from Iran hitting the lowest since January, according to Kpler's data.

"The month-on-month decline mainly reflected tight import quotas for independent refineries, which curbed purchases of Russian and Iranian barrels, while narrower arbitrage in June also reduced inflows from Brazil and West Africa, which were loaded in July and August," said Muyu Xu, senior crude oil analyst at Kpler.

For the first nine months of the year, total crude imports were up 2.6% at 423 million tons, reflecting China’s continued stockpiling activity.

Imports of natural gas, including both pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG), fell 7.8% in September to 11.05 million tons from a year earlier.

China imported 92.86 million tons of LNG in the first nine months, down 6.2% on the year.

Source: TradingView

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Julia Daniels

Forex

Economic

Canada is pushing to strengthen ties with China and India, even as it remains in precarious trade talks with a US administration that has escalated its tariff war with Beijing.

Foreign Minister Anita Anand is travelling to New Delhi, Mumbai, Singapore and Hangzhou, China this week to meet with her counterparts and lay the groundwork for boosting trade and investment.

Her task is hard and extremely delicate: Canada’s disputes with Asia’s two most populous countries are serious, and any steps to ease tensions with China will need to be taken carefully to avoid triggering a reprisal from US President Donald Trump.

But Anand argues Canada is taking the same approach with every country — putting the interests of its workers and businesses first. It’s a clear shift under Prime Minister Mark Carney, who has prioritised the economy above all else, scrapping many of the tenets of Justin Trudeau’s foreign policy.

“It goes back to being a sovereign country,” Anand said in an interview with Bloomberg News, when asked how Canada can balance its relationships with China and the US.

Trump threatened an additional 100% tariff on Chinese products on Friday, causing equities markets to dive, though on Sunday the president signalled openness to a truce.

“Having a stable relationship with a major global economic player is of exceeding importance in this geopolitical environment,” Anand added. “Canada is going to approach the relationship with China guided by one principle — acting in the best interest of Canadians.”

Under Trudeau, Canada joined the Biden administration in erecting a tariff wall against Chinese electric vehicles, steel and aluminium, and Carney has maintained that policy.

Carney’s negotiators are trying to strike a deal with the US that would offer some relief from Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs, and a major part of their pitch is that a fortified North American supply chain in those industries is essential to countering China.

China has hit Canada with hefty tariffs against canola, pork and seafood. But it extended a deadline for its latest probe into Canadian canola, also known as rapeseed, allowing more time for negotiations. Carney has faced calls from western Canada to drop the EV levies if it will mean tariff-free food exports.

Canadian steel, aluminium and auto producers support their country’s tariffs on Chinese products. But the public’s view of the EV tariffs is shifting — just 44% of Canadians favour them, down from 63% last year, according to a poll by Nanos Research Group for Bloomberg News.

Carney has said there’s potential for cooperation with China on energy, and he’s bullish on shipping more liquefied natural gas to Asia. The prime minister expects to eventually meet with President Xi Jinping, and the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea will offer an opportunity.

Anand also stressed that, despite their issues, Canada and China can collaborate on climate change and other areas of trade. “We have many Canadian businesses actively engaged in that market,” she said.

As for India, talks on a limited trade agreement broke off in 2023 just before Trudeau made the explosive allegation that the Indian government orchestrated the murder of a Sikh separatist on Canadian soil. Prime Minister Narendra Modi denied the claim, but court cases in Canada and the US are proceeding, and some activists say they’re still in danger.

Under Carney, Canada has moved to normalise diplomatic relations with India, with each country appointing new ambassadors and establishing a structure to share intelligence on cross-border crimes. Anand said she raised the issue of transnational repression with Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar in a meeting last month and will do so again.

But even before the relationship imploded, Canada and India’s progress toward a trade deal was sluggish. Asked when those discussions might resume, Anand pointed out how much progress had already been made.

“We were in a situation in 2023 where the high commissioners had been recalled and the diplomatic relationship was at a virtual standstill. Here we are in October of 2025, two years later, and we have high commissioners in place and I’m travelling to meet with Minister Jaishankar,” she said.

“So we are taking a step-by-step approach on the diplomatic relationship and ensuring that we have a work plan to give to our respective leaders that they can agree on,” she said. “The discussions about trade will come after” that agreement has been reached.

Source: Theedgemarkets

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Glendon

Forex

Economic

South Korea is reviewing a new proposal from Washington linked to its US$350 billion (RM1.48 trillion) investment pledge in the US, whose implementation has become a key obstacle to finalising a trade deal reached in July.

“The US brought a new alternative, and we’re now reviewing it,” Foreign Minister Cho Hyun told lawmakers at a parliamentary audit on Monday, signalling progress after months of stalled talks over tariffs.

Cho said Seoul aims to make progress by the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in late October, where President Lee Jae Myung is expected to hold talks with President Donald Trump.

Talks to formalise the trade deal reached in July have remained deadlocked, with disputes centring on South Korea’s US$350 billion investment commitment. Seoul has requested the US for a currency swap, warning that without it, the plan could hurt financial stability because the proposed investment amounts to over 80% of the country’s foreign reserves.

The original package included a mix of direct investment, loans, and loan guarantees, but Washington later demanded that the full amount be made through direct investment, Cho said. He didn’t elaborate on the details of the US’s revised proposal.

“We’ve explained to the US that if the entire investment were made directly, it would immediately cause foreign exchange pressures and could have a serious impact on our economy,” Cho said, reiterating South Korea’s reservations about the US demand.

The signs of flexibility come as the Trump administration has indicated openness to a possible deal with China to ease fresh trade tensions, while also criticising Beijing’s new export controls as a major hurdle.

The investment package forms the core of a broader trade agreement between Seoul and Washington, under which the US agreed to impose a 15% tariff on South Korean imports — lower than the 25% rate threatened earlier this year — as part of sweeping trade measures that included tariffs on Korean autos.

“We’ll do our utmost to reach a mutually beneficial deal — not one that favours only the US but one that creates win-win cooperation in areas such as shipbuilding,” Cho said. “That’s why we’re maintaining our position even if it delays the negotiations.”

Source: Theedgemarkets

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Justin

Cryptocurrency

$171M in shorts were liquidated in the past hour, causing significant market turbulence. Large liquidations often trigger rapid price movements in major assets like BTC and ETH, affecting derivatives and potentially leading to cascading effects in the market.

Over $171 million in cryptocurrency shorts were liquidated today, impacting major trading platforms and affecting asset prices globally, according to secondary news reports.

Market Impact

Crypto markets witnessed a dramatic liquidation of $171 million in shorts, according to secondary sources. This event reflects the volatility within the trading space, leading to significant asset price movements. Short liquidations often result in sharp price adjustments. Key players such as cryptocurrency exchanges and investors have reportedly been impacted, though official confirmations from major exchanges remain unavailable. Such events usually involve derivatives markets, with BTC and ETH being the most prominently affected cryptocurrencies.

Aftermath and Implications

The immediate aftermath includes price fluctuations in the market, predominantly affecting BTC and ETH. Major exchanges may witness increased trading activity and volatility, impacting traders' strategies and risk assessments. This liquidation could prompt discussions among regulators regarding future market safeguarding measures. Furthermore, this event highlights the inherent risks in trading leveraged positions within the crypto space. Potential outcomes include intensified regulatory scrutiny and technological innovations to manage risk better. Historical events show such liquidations can precede market corrections or temporary destabilizations. To understand the broader context of such events, the CoinGecko Q2 2025 Crypto Industry Report provides insights into market trends.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Gerik

Economic

Cryptocurrency

Digital Assets Recover After Historic Weekend Wipeout

Global cryptocurrency markets staged a strong rebound following a catastrophic weekend selloff that had erased nearly $19 billion in leveraged positions. According to CoinGecko data, the total crypto market capitalization rose more than 6% to surpass $4 trillion on Monday. Bitcoin climbed back above $115,000 after dropping below $105,000 on Friday, while Ether recovered to around $4,100 from weekend lows under $3,500.

The recovery was directly tied to President Donald Trump’s and Vice President JD Vance’s weekend remarks suggesting a willingness to negotiate with China, which temporarily soothed investor anxiety. Their comments came after Trump’s surprise announcement of sweeping new tariffs on Chinese imports a move that had sparked panic selling across digital asset markets and intensified automated liquidations due to high leverage and low weekend liquidity.

Short-Term Relief, Long-Term Fragility

The rebound illustrates a clear causal link between political rhetoric and crypto price dynamics. Trump’s softer tone restored short-term confidence, but traders remain wary of headline-driven volatility. Richard Galvin, co-founder of hedge fund DACM, emphasized that most smaller tokens or “altcoins” remain well below their early October levels, adding that “headline risk remains high and the market is exposed to any further escalation.”

This sensitivity underscores the correlation between macro policy shocks and the speculative structure of digital asset markets, which remain highly leveraged and sentiment-dependent.

Mass Liquidations and Systemic Stress

The weekend crash marked one of the most severe leverage resets in crypto’s history. Data from Coinglass revealed that over 1.6 million traders were liquidated, echoing cascading selloffs reminiscent of the 2022 FTX collapse. Open interest in Bitcoin and Ether derivatives halved to $33 billion and $19 billion respectively, reflecting a massive unwinding of speculative positions.

The deleveraging also caused funding rates the interest paid by bullish traders to collapse to their lowest levels since late 2022. While painful for overexposed traders, the purge may ultimately strengthen market structure by flushing out excessive risk. As Galvin noted, “the reset will place a surer footing under pricing over the medium term,” suggesting that the market may emerge more stable once leverage normalizes.

Ripple Effects Across the Crypto Ecosystem

The selloff’s shockwaves were felt throughout the digital asset ecosystem. Ethena’s USDe, the world’s third-largest stablecoin, briefly lost its dollar peg, heightening concerns about liquidity reliability in moments of stress. Binance, the largest crypto exchange, suffered technical outages during peak volatility, further aggravating panic among retail traders.

Despite these disruptions, no evidence of systemic collapse has yet emerged an encouraging contrast to previous crises such as the 2022 FTX implosion. Still, crypto executives remain on alert, monitoring for delayed effects or hidden insolvencies among leveraged funds and lending platforms.

From Record Highs to Rapid Correction

Bitcoin’s retreat from its October 6 record of $126,251 reflects the extreme sensitivity of digital assets to macroeconomic and policy shocks. While the asset remains up 23% year-to-date supported by Trump’s pro-crypto stance and ongoing institutional adoption the recent correction highlights the thin line between optimism and panic in a market dominated by leverage and speculative flows.

The causal mechanism is clear: heightened trade uncertainty fuels global risk aversion, which cascades through high-beta assets like cryptocurrencies. Conversely, even a modest diplomatic signal, such as Trump’s conciliatory remark, can reverse momentum by alleviating systemic fear.

Relief Rally Masks Structural Vulnerability

The sharp rebound in crypto markets offers short-term relief but not full recovery. The weekend’s liquidation wave revealed deep structural fragilities in leverage, liquidity, and market infrastructure. While Trump’s softer rhetoric temporarily stabilized sentiment, the crypto complex remains highly exposed to geopolitical shocks and policy volatility.

The broader lesson is that cryptocurrency, once heralded as an asset class detached from traditional geopolitics, now moves in close correlation with macroeconomic events. As the U.S.–China trade dispute unfolds, traders will continue navigating a market where political messaging not just blockchain fundamentals determines the price trajectory of digital assets.

Source: Bloomberg

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Gerik

Economic

Stocks

Trade War Escalation Sparks Broad Market Selloff

Asian equities tumbled at the start of the week after President Donald Trump’s threat to impose higher tariffs on Chinese goods reignited fears of a prolonged trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies. The renewed hostilities erased months of relative calm in global markets and sent investors fleeing from risk assets.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index plunged 3.5% to 25,374.00, its steepest one-day loss in months, while the Shanghai Composite slipped 1.3% to 3,846.25. South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.7% to 3,550.32, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.9% to 8,882.60. Taiwan’s Taiex also dropped 1.7%, and India’s Sensex lost 0.5%. Tokyo markets were closed for a public holiday, providing little regional stability.

The market rout mirrors the steep declines seen in the United States on Friday, where the S&P 500 plunged 2.7% its worst day since April while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.9% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 3.6%. The selloff wiped out nearly $2 trillion in global market capitalization, signaling a renewed wave of risk aversion.

China’s Exports Resilient Overall but U.S. Trade Weakens

While markets recoiled from the tariff escalation, China’s latest trade data presented a complex picture. Overall exports rose 8.3% year-on-year in September the strongest growth in six months suggesting that Chinese manufacturers have successfully redirected sales away from the U.S. toward other global markets.

However, exports to the United States fell by 27% compared with a year earlier, underscoring the direct causal impact of escalating trade barriers. This divergence reveals a decoupling trend: China’s global trade resilience may continue even as its U.S. trade relationship deteriorates.

The decline in U.S.-bound exports also carries correlative implications for global supply chains, which have increasingly shifted production hubs and logistics routes to bypass U.S.–China tariffs, thereby reshaping long-term trade flows in the Asia-Pacific region.

Wall Street’s Collapse Highlights Investor Fatigue and Overvaluation Fears

The latest Wall Street downturn reflects more than just geopolitical anxiety it also exposes investor unease about valuations after a relentless 35% rally in the S&P 500 since April. Analysts warned that equity prices had surged far ahead of corporate earnings, especially within artificial intelligence–related sectors.

Technology giants such as Nvidia and Apple led the declines, dragging down broader indices as investors questioned whether recent gains had created conditions reminiscent of the early 2000s dot-com bubble. Roughly six out of every seven S&P 500 stocks fell on Friday, showing widespread market participation in the selloff.

Critics argue that for valuations to stabilize, either corporate earnings must grow significantly or share prices must contract further. The present correction, therefore, reflects a necessary recalibration rather than panic selling an adjustment that could restore market balance if profit fundamentals fail to catch up.

Energy Prices React to Ceasefire and Trade Shock

Oil markets were also caught in the turbulence. U.S. benchmark crude plunged 4.2% on Friday to $58.90 a barrel, while Brent crude fell 3.8% to $62.73. The losses were initially driven by news of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, which reduced fears of Middle East supply disruptions.

However, the subsequent trade tension compounded the decline as markets priced in weaker global demand due to potential slowdowns in manufacturing and transport. Early Monday, oil prices saw a modest rebound Brent rising to $63.65 and WTI to $59.78 per barrel largely due to short covering and speculative repositioning rather than renewed optimism.

The relationship between trade policy and energy demand remains causally intertwined: tariff escalations dampen industrial activity, reducing oil consumption forecasts and dragging prices lower.

Bond and Currency Markets Reflect Flight to Safety

Amid the equity turmoil, government bonds strengthened as investors sought safety. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury fell to 4.05% from 4.14% late Thursday, reflecting heightened demand for safe-haven assets. Lower yields typically signal expectations of slower economic growth, reinforcing the view that trade uncertainty could weigh on both U.S. and global expansion.

In currency markets, the U.S. dollar remained relatively stable, dipping slightly to 151.87 yen, while the euro edged up to $1.1627. The limited volatility suggests that while equities experienced acute stress, broader financial systems remained orderly a sign that markets still perceive the trade tensions as political rather than systemic at this stage.

Fragile Market Confidence Under Trade Pressure

The renewed U.S.–China trade confrontation has reignited global market volatility, ending a brief period of investor optimism. While China’s broader export strength offers some resilience, the sharp decline in shipments to the U.S. illustrates the direct damage of tariff warfare.

Asian and global markets now face a dual risk: slowing demand from reduced trade flows and persistent investor skepticism over inflated valuations in key growth sectors. Until clearer diplomatic progress or economic stabilization emerges, regional equities are likely to remain under pressure, with volatility driven more by political signaling than fundamental recovery.