China Demands Malaysia, Cambodia Clarify Trade Deals With US

Political

Economic

Summary:

China complained to Malaysia and Cambodia about the trade deals they signed with the US last month, underscoring the delicate balance countries must strike in the rivalry between Beijing and Washington.

Beijing has "grave concerns" with certain portions of the US-Malaysia trade deal, Chinese Ministry of Commerce officials said in a meeting with Malaysia on Tuesday. "We hope Malaysia will fully consider and properly handle this matter in light of its long-term national interests."

The readout added officials from the Malaysia's Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry explained and clarified the issues of China's concerns, without elaborating on what those are.

The meeting follows a similar sitdown between Chinese and Cambodian officials last Tuesday, where China's trade envoy Li Chenggang also urged Phnom Penh to handle concerns and the Cambodians clarified some issues.

China's Commerce Ministry didn't respond to a request for further details. Malaysia's trade ministry and Cambodia's government spokesperson didn't reply to a request for comment.

Both deals, signed last month during President Donald Trump's visit to Malaysia, include language that encourages the countries to align with Washington on national security issues, including export controls, investment screening and sanctions. Beijing has repeatedly warned countries against signing deals with the US that undermine its interests, but this appears to be the first instance of direct complaint.

The public criticisms demonstrate the tight space Southeast Asian nations navigate between the world's two largest economies. China is a key economic and trade partner, but Trump's tariff threats have forced countries to make more trade concessions and investment deals with the US.

The deals were part of a flurry of trade pacts unveiled last month during Trump's first Asia tour since he was reelected, including with Vietnam, and Thailand. As part of its deal, Kuala Lumpur will provide preferential access for US goods and services, while the White House exempted some Malaysian goods from Trump's 19% reciprocal tariffs.

But also under the agreement, Malaysia is expected to follow Washington's trade restrictions on countries for economic or national security reasons. It also commits Malaysia to align with US export controls and sanctions on sensitive technologies, and to prevent its companies from helping others circumvent those measures.

Malaysia should also explore a mechanism to review inbound investment for national security risks, including in relation to critical minerals and critical infrastructure.

For Cambodia, the pact affirms that the country will drop all tariffs on US food and agricultural imports, as well as industrial products. In exchange, the White House identified hundreds of goods it planned to exempt from its 19% tariff.

Similar to Malaysia, Cambodia is required to comply with the US export control regime and so-called entity list of banned firms. In addition, it will cooperate with any US request for information about investment activity by third countries.

Both Malaysia and Cambodia will also enhance defense trade with the US, and promise to crack down on transshipment of goods, the agreements show.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Samantha Luan

Forex

Political

Cryptocurrency

Switzerland has delayed implementing rules that would automatically exchange crypto account information with overseas tax agencies until 2027 and is still deciding which countries it will share data with.

Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF) rules will still be enshrined into law on Jan. 1, 2026, as originally planned, but will not be implemented until at least a year later, the Swiss Federal Council and State Secretariat for International Finance said on Wednesday.

It added that the Swiss government's tax committee "suspended deliberations on the partner states with which Switzerland intends to exchange data in accordance with the CARF," as the reason for the delay.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) approved CARF in 2022 as part of a global push to share crypto account data with partnered governments in a bid to curb tax evasion via crypto platforms.

The Swiss government's announcement also highlighted a series of amendments to local crypto tax reporting laws, and transitional provisions "aimed at making it easier" for domestic crypto firms to comply with CARF rules.

In June, the Swiss Federal Council had moved forward with a bill to adopt the CARF rules in January 2026, and said at the time that the first exchange of crypto account data would happen in 2027, but it's now unclear when it plans to exchange information.

75 nations signed up to CARF

OECD documents show 75 countries, including Switzerland, that have signed on to enact CARF over the next two to four years.

Meanwhile, it has earmarked Argentina, El Salvador, Vietnam and India as countries that have yet to sign on.

List of jurisdictions implementing CARF. Source: OECD

Earlier this month, Reuters reported that the Brazilian government was weighing up a tax on international crypto transfers as part of push to align domestic rules with CARF standards.

Meanwhile, the US White House also recently reviewed the Internal Revenue Service's proposal to join CARF as part of a push to enact more stringent capital gains tax reporting rules for American taxpayers using foreign exchanges.

Source: COINTELEGRAPH

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Samantha Luan

Stocks

Economic

Brazilian state-run oil firm Petrobrashas lowered its dividend forecast and cut expected investments by almost 2% in a new five-year business plan announced Thursday, as it grapples with lower crude prices.

Petrobras expects to dole out between $45 billion and $50 billion during the 2026-2030 period in ordinary dividends, a filing showed. In its previous five-year plan to 2029, released last year, the firm had expected to give shareholders up to $55 billion.

There was no mention of extraordinary dividends in the new plan, while the previous one estimated up to $10 billion could be disbursed during the 2025-2029 period.

The cut in investments to $109 billion comes as Petrobras faces lower Brent oil prices, that it now expects to hover around $63 a barrel for next year, below the $77 estimate it had set for 2026 in the previous plan.

This marks the first drop in investments of the state-run firm under President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's current administration.

The last time investment was cut was the 2021-2025 plan, under former President Jair Bolsonaro's administration, when Petrobras was undergoing a series of divestments.

Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing sources, that Petrobras' expected investments were set to drop to around $109 billion in the new plan.

Since taking office, Lula has pushed the oil firm to invest more in order to boost the country's economy. Next year, the leftist leader is set to seek a fourth, non-consecutive term as president.

Despite lowering investments overall, Petrobras raised investments in exploration and production activities by about $1 billion to $78 billion for the period, while keeping refining, transportation and marketing investments at around $20 billion.

Petrobras also said it expects to reach peak oil production within the period of 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2028.

Peak total production within the plan's timeframe would be 3.4 million barrels of oil and gas equivalent per day (boed) in 2028 and 2029, based on annual projections with a margin of variation of plus or minus 4%.

Source: TradingView

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Gerik

Economic

A Familiar Threat Resurfaces in Crypto Markets

South Korea is once again confronting the specter of North Korean cyber aggression, this time through a high-profile hack targeting Upbit, the nation’s largest cryptocurrency exchange. The attack resulted in the unauthorized withdrawal of approximately 44.5 billion won ($30.4 million), raising immediate suspicion of the notorious Lazarus Group, widely believed to operate under the directive of Pyongyang’s intelligence apparatus.

The breach, described by Upbit as an "abnormal withdrawal," bears strong resemblance to the 2019 attack in which 58 billion won was stolen, an incident later attributed to the Lazarus Group. According to an unnamed South Korean government official quoted by Yonhap, the patterns and methods used in the recent hack reflect the same technical signature, indicating a strong likelihood of recurrence rather than coincidence.

This correlation between past and present incidents suggests a deliberate and sustained effort by Lazarus to exploit vulnerabilities in digital asset infrastructure, particularly in South Korea, where crypto adoption is widespread and digital exchanges remain lucrative targets.

Attribution and Strategic Implications

The Lazarus Group has long been identified by global intelligence and cybersecurity bodies, including the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation, as one of the most sophisticated persistent cyber threats emanating from North Korea. Their tactics typically include phishing campaigns, malware deployment, and exploiting exchange weaknesses to secure illicit funds, which are believed to be used to finance state operations in defiance of international sanctions.

The suspected involvement of Lazarus is not merely a legal issue it points to a deeper strategic pattern where North Korea leverages cybercrime to bypass economic isolation. While attribution remains under investigation, the South Korean National Police Agency has confirmed a formal probe, while the National Intelligence Service declined to provide details.

Corporate Ramifications: Dunamu and Naver Deal Overshadowed

The hack’s timing is particularly sensitive as it occurred just hours before South Korea’s tech conglomerate Naver announced its acquisition of Dunamu, Upbit’s operating company. This overlap raises questions about potential due diligence lapses or whether the attackers were strategically timing the breach to exploit transitional vulnerabilities.

While Dunamu has stated it is still investigating the scale and cause of the outflow, the reputational and operational impact is likely to be significant. It also underscores a causative link between security weaknesses in fintech infrastructure and investor confidence during corporate restructuring or acquisitions.

The Upbit hack is not an isolated incident but part of an escalating cyber threat landscape where state-backed actors use cryptocurrency platforms as both targets and tools for geopolitical objectives. For South Korea, the attack is a stark reminder that cyber resilience is not just a technical necessity but a national security priority. As investigations proceed, the incident will likely shape regulatory reforms, international cooperation on cybercrime, and strategic recalibration of how digital assets are defended against hostile state actors.

Source: Reuters

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Justin

Forex

Economic

The India rupee is poised to open weaker on Friday, with the imbalance between robust importer hedging and hesitant exporter flows making it vulnerable to a lifetime low and dependent on central bank support.

The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupeewill open in the 89.40-89.42 range versus the U.S. dollar, having settled at 89.3050 on Thursday, and within striking distance of last week's all-time low of 89.49.

The Reserve Bank of India stepped in heavily at the beginning of the week in a bid to break the cycle of weakness that threatened to deepen after last week's breakdown.

Its intervention briefly lifted the rupee back through the 89 handle, offering a short-lived reprieve. The relief, however, faded with persistent dollar demand from importers, hesitant exporter hedging and lacklustre portfolio flows eroding much of the RBI-spurred recovery.

The fact that the rupee is back under pressure despite the RBI's support is noteworthy considering the softness in the dollar.

The dollar indexis headed for its worst week in four months on mounting confidence that the Federal Reserve will deliver a third straight rate cut next month, a tailwind that would normally offer rupee some respite.

Fed funds futures now imply an 86% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut on December 10, up from about 40% just a week ago, according to the CME's FedWatch tool.

"You don't get this kind of this slow relentless push higher (on dollar/rupee) unless corporate flows are skewed and there is nothing to offset it," a currency trader at a private sector bank said.

For speculators, there's no macro trigger to chase USD/INR higher, he added.

Source: TradingView

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Gerik

Economic

Diplomatic Recalibration in East Asia

As tensions rise between China and Japan over Taiwan-related security discourse, Beijing has launched a diplomatic effort to draw international allies into its corner. This week, China’s top foreign affairs official, Wang Yi, initiated a strategic conversation with France in an attempt to secure support ahead of French President Emmanuel Macron’s upcoming state visit to China.

The diplomatic row began after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi made public remarks on November 7 that linked Japan’s national security to a Taiwan Strait contingency. Beijing interpreted this as an implicit endorsement of potential Japanese military involvement in a Taiwan-related conflict. Chinese officials condemned the comments as a breach of international norms and an affront to China's sovereignty, asserting a causal relationship between the statements and perceived threats to regional stability.

The Chinese Communist Party's flagship newspaper, People’s Daily, reinforced this view in an editorial that framed the comments as a "serious provocation." Beijing demanded a retraction, which Takaichi refused, instead reiterating Japan’s longstanding position of assessing each regional incident based on available intelligence and security needs.

Wang Yi’s Outreach to France

In a phone call with Emmanuel Bonne, the diplomatic adviser to the French president, Wang Yi urged mutual support between Beijing and Paris on matters concerning each country’s "core interests." He emphasized the need for France to uphold the one-China principle, a recurring condition in China’s international diplomacy, particularly when Taiwan is involved.

This appeal is significant given Macron’s scheduled visit to China next week, during which economic and commercial issues will dominate the agenda. Wang’s timing reveals a strategic intent to shape diplomatic perceptions prior to bilateral talks and reflects China's preference for multilateral leverage when dealing with disputes involving fellow G7 members.

UN Outreach and International Framing

China also attempted to internationalize its grievance by submitting a formal complaint to United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres. The letter accused Prime Minister Takaichi of violating international law and escalating tensions with comments that hinted at potential Japanese military engagement in a Taiwan crisis.

This reflects China’s effort to portray itself as the defender of international legal norms while framing Japan’s comments as escalatory. However, this move could also signal a desire to shift the diplomatic battleground from bilateral dialogues to global platforms, where China's interpretation of sovereignty issues tends to receive broader support from non-Western nations.

France's Role and Strategic Calculations

So far, France has not publicly responded to Beijing's statement. However, Japan and France reaffirmed their security cooperation just days earlier during a call between Takaichi and Macron on November 23. The two countries are progressing toward a Reciprocal Access Agreement to facilitate military cooperation, a development that implicitly challenges Beijing’s narrative.

This bilateral defense dialogue between Paris and Tokyo demonstrates a correlational pattern between shared democratic values and resistance to unilateral coercion in the Taiwan Strait. While it remains unclear whether France will publicly endorse China’s position, current defense agreements and diplomatic ties with Japan suggest limits to Beijing’s ability to reshape European perceptions on the issue.

China’s diplomatic maneuver to enlist France in its feud with Japan reveals the broader strategic stakes surrounding the Taiwan Strait. The episode illustrates how individual remarks by leaders can trigger wider geopolitical recalibrations and influence alignments among major powers. The effectiveness of China’s diplomatic outreach to France may hinge less on historical loyalty and more on strategic calculations linked to trade, security, and global standing factors that neither Beijing nor Paris can afford to navigate carelessly.

Source: Bloomberg

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Gerik

Economic

A Long-Awaited Legislative Breakthrough

After years of political stalemate, Australia has enacted a significant overhaul of its environmental protection laws. With support from the minority Greens party, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s government successfully passed reforms to the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999. The new legislation promises enhanced ecological safeguards while also addressing longstanding criticisms regarding inefficiencies in development approvals.

The original 1999 framework had long been criticised by both environmentalists and industry stakeholders for being outdated and overly complex. Environmental lawyer Claire Smith noted that despite its original intentions, the old law failed to effectively prevent environmental degradation. The newly enacted reforms aim to correct these shortcomings through stricter enforcement mechanisms and the establishment of a more streamlined governance structure.

Institutional Reforms and Enforcement Enhancements

A major institutional shift is the creation of a federal Environmental Protection Authority (EPA), designed to operate alongside existing state and territory-level agencies. This new national body will apply consistent environmental standards and oversee the approval of large-scale projects. In addition, stricter penalties have been introduced for violations affecting endangered species and other environmental harms, with fines now reaching up to A$825 million. This policy shift reflects a causal relationship between inadequate past enforcement and persistent biodiversity threats, which the new penalties aim to deter.

One of the core tensions addressed by the legislation lies in reconciling Australia’s reliance on mining, energy, and natural resource exports such as iron ore, coal, and liquefied natural gas with the imperative to protect its unique ecosystems. The revised law now mandates emissions disclosures for major developments, a move that aligns with global ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) trends. However, efforts by the Greens to include carbon-intensity assessments in project approvals were unsuccessful. This outcome highlights a correlation, not causation, between the emissions transparency requirement and the broader climate regulation landscape, which remains governed by separate legislation.

Economic Impacts and Growth Potential

Beyond ecological concerns, the government expects the new law to act as a catalyst for economic development. By accelerating the approval timeline for critical sectors particularly housing, renewable energy, and critical minerals the law is projected to generate up to A$7 billion in economic benefits. This estimate underscores a cause-effect relationship, where regulatory reform directly stimulates investment by reducing bureaucratic delays.

Australia’s landmark environmental reform signals a shift toward a dual-purpose policy framework: ensuring long-term environmental resilience while supporting economic ambitions. Though not all environmentalist demands were met, the new law introduces a more robust and future-facing legal infrastructure. Whether it can effectively reconcile the country’s ecological vulnerabilities with its economic aspirations will depend on the implementation rigor of the newly formed EPA and the responsiveness of industry stakeholders to these higher standards.