Brazil Stocks Slip, Real Rebounds After Trump's 50% Tariff Threat

Political

Economic

Summary:

"The economic implications are nevertheless fairly modest," Stock said, as just over 10% of Brazil's exports go to the U.S., and were worth only around 1% of the South American country's GDP.

Brazil's stock market was dragged lower by its financial sector on Thursday while the real currency rebounded, a day after U.S. President Donald Trump's shock move to slap 50% tariffs on imports from Latin America's largest economy, citing political disagreements.

Currency volatility gauges were at their highest since the back-end of April's tariff announcements after the real slumped as much as 2.8% on Wednesday in reaction to what Deutsche Bank described as an escalation of tensions. The currency ended down 2.3% Wednesday but bounced on Thursday and was up 0.5% on the day at 5.544 after earlier touching a five-week low of 5.6277 per greenback.

U.S.-listed shares of Brazilian companies fell, with a widely followed Brazil ETF down 1.6%. Itau Unibanco fell 4.2%, Banco Santander Brasil was down 3.2% and Nu Holdings dropped 4.5%, while state oil firm Petrobras lost 0.4% and Embraer fell 4.7%. The main local stock market index (.BVSP), opens new tab shed 0.5%.

Brazil's 10-year local benchmark note yield had been steadily rising since hitting a 2025 low of 13.45% last week, and on Thursday jumped 13 basis points to 13.892%.

"Although U.S. unilateral tariffs on Brazil are not entirely irrelevant, their macroeconomic impact would be modest," said local investment manager ARX Investimentos in a client note. " When combined with a coordinated economic policy response, Brazil is well positioned to neutralize adverse effects and preserve economic stability, even in a scenario of rising global trade protectionism."

Brazil's bonds have been a strong performer in emerging markets this year, with international dollar-denominated bonds returning nearly 8% and local currency ones a whopping 20%. The local stock market hit a record high this month, yet is still among the cheapest in terms of dollars paid for expected earnings.

MSCI's dollar-denominated Brazil stock index is up nearly 25%, too, helped by the year's double-digit surge in the real. Brazil Stocks Slip, Real Rebounds After Trump's 50% Tariff Threat_1

Brazil Stocks Slip, Real Rebounds After Trump's 50% Tariff Threat_1

Graham Stock at RBC BlueBay Asset Management said Trump's reasoning for the 50% tariff level had centred on his grievances around a court case against right-wing former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, as well as legal moves against U.S. social media firms.

"The economic implications are nevertheless fairly modest," Stock said, as just over 10% of Brazil's exports go to the U.S., and were worth only around 1% of the South American country's GDP.

"The risk is that President Lula seeks to exploit his defiance of U.S. interference as a badge of honour in the run-up to the October 2026 elections, in which case de-escalation becomes less likely," he said.

Brazil is a closed economy that has a trade deficit with the U.S., where consumers face sharp price rises on food staples like coffee and orange juice if the 50% tariffs stick, according to traders and experts.

Around a third of the coffee consumed in the U.S., the world's largest drinker of the beverage, comes from Brazil and more than half of all the orange juice sold in the U.S. also comes from the South American agricultural powerhouse.

Wednesday's decision by Trump followed a threat on Monday to impose an additional 10% tariff on the BRICS group of developing nations - of which Brazil is the 'B' - which he called "anti-American." Brazil Stocks Slip, Real Rebounds After Trump's 50% Tariff Threat_2

Brazil Stocks Slip, Real Rebounds After Trump's 50% Tariff Threat_2

Source: Reuters

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Political

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) vaulted to a fresh all-time high Thursday, breaking above $113,000 amid a wave of bullish momentum across risk assets.

The token's price action coincides with AI giant Nvidia’s (NVDA) surge to a $4 trillion valuation, highlighting crypto's tie with tech. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) hit a fresh record on Wednesday, and the S&P 500 (^GSPC) was headed that way on Thursday.

"Historically, Bitcoin has remained highly correlated with tech stocks, and this correlation is still playing out," Nic Puckrin, crypto analyst and founder of the Coin Bureau, wrote on Thursday morning.

Year to date, the token is up roughly 21%, buoyed in part by crypto-friendly policies from the Trump administration — including the establishment of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a broader digital asset stockpile.

Over the past two months, bitcoin has traded within a tight $10,000 range — an unusually stable period given its historical volatility. Bitcoin Surges to new Highs Above $113,000 as Investors go Risk on_1

Bitcoin Surges to new Highs Above $113,000 as Investors go Risk on_1

"If BTC makes a convincing break through the ATH level, then further profit taking can be expected around the $115,000 mark," Puckrin wrote. "Either way, this isn’t the big final rally everyone is waiting for, simply a quick release of the pressure that had been building up."

The timing of bitcoin’s breakout also comes days before Congress kicks off its highly anticipated “Crypto Week” on July 14 — when lawmakers will debate a series of bills that could define the industry’s regulatory framework.

"A favorable outcome could accelerate institutional inflows, reinforcing Bitcoin’s role as a macro asset and strengthening confidence in compliant crypto platforms," said Jesse Jarvis, CEO of Kaiko, a cryptocurrency market data provider.

The GENIUS Act is among one of the regulations the House will consider. The bill, which recently passed through the Senate, proposes a federal framework for stablecoins.

Shares of Circle (CRCL) the issuer of stablecoin USDC (USDC-USD), were up roughly 2% on Thursday. The stock is up more than 500% from its June 5 IPO.

Trading platforms Robinhood (HOOD) and Coinbase (COIN) were also higher during Thursday's session.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday the U.S. central bank still has some ways to go in shrinking the size of its holdings, in comments that offer a potential resting size for the ongoing drawdown, while flagging a desire to move the holdings to shorter-dated securities.

"Given my rough estimate of the level of reserves needed to be ample, I believe we can likely continue to let a share of maturing and prepaying securities roll off our balance sheet for some time, reducing reserve balances," Waller said in the text of a speech to be presented at the Dallas Fed.

Against a Fed balance sheet that now stands at $6.7 trillion, with $3.3 trillion in bank reserves, Waller said the ongoing effort to reduce the holdings may have a visible target in view.

Waller said a "hypothetical" Fed balance sheet might stand at $5.8 trillion, with $2.7 trillion in reserves and $780 billion in the Treasury Department's account with the central bank. He noted money market turbulence in the fall of 2019 suggests a drop in reserves to below 8% of GDP is an issue, so that metric helped inform his rough estimate of where overall Fed holdings might need to fall.

After more than doubling the size of its balance sheet to a peak of $9 trillion due to COVID-19 era bond purchases, the Fed has over the last three years been steadily shedding Treasury and mortgage bonds as part of a broader normalization of monetary policy.

The Fed aggressively purchased longer-dated Treasury and mortgage bonds during the COVID-19 pandemic and is now seeking to remove much of that excess liquidity, although it is unsure how long this process, known as quantitative tightening, or QT, can run. Waller has in the past been skeptical of using the Fed's balance sheet to provide stimulus as it remains unclear how shifts in the central bank's holdings affect the economy.

SHIFT IN FED HOLDINGS

Waller was speaking a day after the release of the minutes from the Fed's June 17-18 policy meeting. The minutes showed that most Fed officials were reluctant to embrace rate cuts amid the likelihood that some form of higher inflation over an uncertain duration lies ahead due to President Donald Trump's aggressive tariffs policy.

Waller and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman recently have flagged an openness to cutting rates at the central bank's July 29-30 meeting. Waller believes any inflation increase tied to tariffs will be a one-time event the central bank can look through. He did not comment on the outlook for short-term rates in his prepared remarks on Thursday.

The latest release of the minutes also noted that ahead of the June meeting, big banks and money managers had pushed back modestly their expected end date for the Fed's balance sheet drawdown to next February. The banks see Fed holdings falling to $6.2 trillion, with $2.9 trillion in reserves.

In his prepared remarks, Waller noted that Fed holdings are skewed toward longer-dated bonds due to the central bank's bond-buying stimulus efforts. He said that over time it would likely be a good idea to shift Fed holdings more toward Treasury bills.

Doing this "will be a slow process unless we were to take the dramatic step of selling existing securities to replace them with Treasury bills," Waller said. But it could also be the case that the Fed reweights its holdings toward shorter-term securities when the eventual day arrives where it will need to grow its balance sheet again due to the evolution of the broader economy and financial system.

Source: Reuters

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Adam

Commodity

Cryptocurrency

Block 1: Main news

Truth Social wants to launch a "Crypto Blue Chip" ETF combining Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana

After already applying for two crypto ETFs, Truth Social, the platform linked to Donald Trump, has filed a new application with the SEC for a "Crypto Blue Chip" ETF. It would be composed of 70% Bitcoin (BTC), 15% Ether (ETH), 8% Solana (SOL), 5% Cronos (CRO) and 2% XRP (XRP). The fund is backed by Yorkville America Digital, with Crypto.com as a strategic partner, and is seeking listing on the NYSE Arca. This initiative comes at a time when the regulatory environment is more favorable under the Trump administration, with many managers (Grayscale, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, etc.) also filing applications for expanded crypto ETFs.

GameSquare jumps 120% on the stockmarket after announcing cash holdings in ether

Video game company GameSquare saw its stock soar 120% on the Nasdaq after announcing the creation of an ether (ETH) cash reserve. The company plans to allocate up to $100m to ether over time, while maintaining its working capital. This move is part of a broader trend, with many listed companies investing in crypto. While some warn of the risks of a passing fad, the regulatory environment and the strength of BTC above $100,000 are fueling enthusiasm.

France: Sequans raises $384m to build a bitcoin treasury

French IoT chip manufacturer Sequans has just completed a $384 million fundraising round to build up a bitcoin reserve. Listed in New York and Paris, the company has combined shares, convertible bonds and warrants to finance this strategy. The purchase of BTC will be handled by Swan Bitcoin. This is a first for a French manufacturer, which is following in the footsteps of Strategy and Tesla. CEO Georges Karam cites a desire for financial resilience in an uncertain global context.

Bitcoin: BlackRock's IBIT ETF outperforms its S&P 500 fund in terms of profitability

Since its launch in early 2024, BlackRock's Spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has been a resounding success. With nearly $70 billion in assets, it has become more profitable for BlackRock than its own S&P 500 fund (IVV), which is nine times larger. IBIT generates $187.2 million in annual fees thanks to massive demand from investors seeking exposure to Bitcoin through regulated products. It now ranks among the top 20 most traded ETFs in the United States, ahead of historic giants in passive management.

Tether, gold, and the invisible vault: the secret $8bn strategy - Crypto review_1

Block 2: Cryptic Analysis of the week

Somewhere in Switzerland. The news went almost unnoticed amid the flood of crypto announcements. And yet it marks a turning point in the strategy of the giant Tether: the issuer of the USDT now holds nearly 80 tons of physical gold — the equivalent of $8 billion — in its own vault in Switzerland. Yes, a private vault, outside the traditional banking system, kept secret, invisible on maps... but very real.

An extraordinary diversification strategy

Tether Holdings SA, a company registered in El Salvador, manages the world's largest stablecoin: the USDT, with $159 billion in circulation and 60% of the stablecoin market. Its business model? Receive dollars in exchange for USDT, then invest this collateral in profitable and liquid assets such as US Treasury bills. But recently, precious metals have come to account for 5% of its reserves, according to a report published in March.

A minority share, certainly, but one that already makes Tether one of the world's largest holders of gold outside of governments and central banks — on par with giants such as UBS.

Why create your own vault?

Paolo Ardoino, CEO of Tether, explains in an interview: "We have our own vault. I think it's the most secure in the world." No date, no address, no partners: everything is kept confidential. This strategic discretion is motivated by two reasons:

To reduce storage costs. Renting a safe from a gold operator is expensive. If Tether's gold-backed token (XAUT) reached $100 billion, "50 basis points in fees would be a huge amount," explains Ardoino.

Gaining logistical independence. Storing your own gold means ensuring total control—a logical choice in an era where financial sovereignty is becoming a mantra.

XAUT: the golden twin of USDT

In addition to USDT, Tether offers a stablecoin backed by physical gold, Tether Gold (XAUT). Each token represents one ounce of gold stored in Switzerland and is theoretically exchangeable for physical metal. To date, Tether has issued $819 million worth of XAUT, or approximately 7.7 tons of gold.

This is a modest amount compared to gold-backed ETFs, which are much more liquid, but it reveals an ambition: to tokenize gold to make it programmable, exchangeable, and divisible. This vision is aligned with the broader movement towards the tokenization of real assets.

The problem is that regulators do not look kindly on gold in stablecoin reserves. In both the European Union and the United States, current legislation requires reserve assets to be liquid and quasi-monetary (cash, short-term sovereign bonds). In other words, there is no place for gold bars.

If Tether wanted to obtain a regulated license for USDT in these jurisdictions, it would have to sell its gold reserves. And the company knows this. Its strategy therefore seems to be a hybrid one, combining tactical independence with expansion outside the traditional institutional framework.

A disguised geopolitical signal?

Gold is not just a safe-haven asset. It is also a symbol of mistrust towards the dollar and sovereign debt. Ardoino puts it bluntly: "If people start to worry about US debt, they may consider alternatives." " He points to the growing demand for gold from BRICS central banks, which are actively contributing to the rise in the metal's price (+25% since the beginning of the year).

Tether's move fits into this backdrop of de-dollarization, geopolitical tensions, trade wars, and the quest for monetary sovereignty.

Tether remains a controversial company. It has often been accused of being vague about its reserves and its explosive growth has attracted the attention of regulators around the world. Allowing billions of dollars to change hands outside the banking system is a technological feat, but also a challenge for global financial stability.

But Tether is not betting everything on blockchain. Since 2023, the company has been investing heavily in Bitcoin mining: first in El Salvador via Volcano Energy, then in Uruguay with the creation of Tether Power. At the same time, it is developing MOS, an open-source operating system dedicated to mining.

But its ambition goes further...

By acquiring 39% of Northern Data Group (listed in Frankfurt), Tether has entered a new playing field—artificial intelligence. And it does not intend to remain a spectator. In May 2025, CEO Paolo Ardoino outlined an open-source AI ecosystem where wallets, USDT payments, and AI agents are interconnected. The whole thing is based on Pears, a suite of P2P tools co-financed by Tether (remote computers, decentralized messaging, etc.).

Behind the lines of code, more concrete—and sometimes unexpected—investments show how far Tether is extending its reach into various sectors:

Juventus Football Club: Tether owns 8.2% of the Turin-based club, becoming its second-largest shareholder after Exor (the Agnelli family).

Blackrock Neurotech: in April 2024, Tether injected $200 million to become the majority shareholder in this pioneering brain implant company.

Rumble: YouTube's rival video platform received $775 million in Tether in December 2024.

Adecoagro: Tether increased its stake to 70% in this NYSE-listed agricultural holding company specializing in milk, sugar, ethanol, and energy.

Behind the stablecoin, a sprawling holding company is emerging. Tether is no longer content with issuing digital currency: it invests, builds, explores... and is now too big to fail?

Source: marketscreener

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Owen Li

Economic

Brazil will consider reciprocal tariffs if US president Donald Trump goes ahead with his threat of a 50pc charge on imports from Brazil, president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said.

"Any unilateral tariff increases will be addressed in accordance with Brazil's economic reciprocity law," Lula posted on social media late on Wednesday.

He defended Brazil's sovereignty and said the country "will not accept any form of tutelage".

He rebutted Trump's claim that the US has a "very unfair trade relationship with Brazil", pointing to its long-running trade surplus.

Brazil has run a trade deficit for goods and services with the US adding up to over $400bn over the last 15 years, finance minister Fernando Haddad said in a televised interview.

"This is an eminently political decision, because there is no economic rationale in this measure," he said.

The US is Brazil's second-largest trading partner behind China, receiving $40.3bn worth of exports in 2024, according to the Brazilian secretary of foreign trade.

It is the main market for Brazilian manufactured goods.

The national confederation of industries (CNI), a lobby group, called for negotiations with the Trump government "to preserve the countries' historical trade relationship". A group representing the powerful agribusiness lobby in congress, FPA, also called for diplomatic negotiations.

The tariffs can "severely hamper production, investments and supply chains between the two countries," US-Brazilian chamber of commerce Amcham said.

The tariffs bring uncertainty to the country's oil and gas sector, Brazil's oil chamber IBP said. Crude is Brazil's main export to the US, accounting for $5.8bn last year.

"We are cautiously assessing the true impacts on investments and competitiveness on our industry," IBP said.

The Brazilian real slumped against the US dollar in the wake of Trump's announcement, dropping to R5.6/$1 on Thursday morning before rallying slightly. A weaker real increases production costs for Brazilian companies who rely on imports.

A letter that Trump sent on Wednesday to Lula is one of the 22 that the US leader has sent to his foreign counterparts since 7 July, announcing new tariff rates that the US will charge on imports from those countries.

"I don't think that this situation will continue," Haddad said of the "unsustainable" 50pc levy, highlighting Brazil's diplomatic tradition.

Source: Argus Media

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Adam

Economic

We are now just a few days away from the start of the corporate earnings season. This week, we have put together an overview of the issues at stake in the first reports.This is a key moment when investors will be able to try to tune out the noise surrounding tariffs and Donald Trump's announcements and focus on the fundamentals: earnings per share.

As we enter this pivotal period, the first thing to note is that expectations have been revised downwards. According to Factset, which tracks earnings forecasts on a weekly basis, EPS forecasts have been lowered by 4.3% since the start of the quarter. To provide a comparison basis, over the past five years, the average downward revision of expectations for a quarter has been 3%.

Looking up

Uncertainties, particularly related to tariffs, have therefore led analysts to be more cautious about the second quarter.

Paradoxically, however, this is a factor that makes strategists fairly confident. The reasoning is as follows, as summarized by Max Kettner of HSBC: "Overall expectations have been too low in our view," creating "a very low bar to clear." This is especially true given that US companies are particularly adept at pushing analysts to revise their forecasts downward... so they can deliver a positive surprise on the day the results are released.

The logical conclusion of this reasoning is higher target prices for the S&P 500. In the last few days alone, Bank of America has updated its year-end target from 5,600 to 6,300. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has raised it from 6,100 to 6,600.

The general mood is therefore fairly optimistic, even though US indices are already at record highs after a strong rebound in recent weeks, led, as always by tech stocks. Yesterday, the Nasdaq set a new record, not far from 23,000 points, while Nvidia reached the $4 trillion market capitalization mark.

All this comes as Donald Trump has reignited the tariff saga, extending the July 9 deadline until August 1 and broadening the threat with new sectoral tariffs (copper, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals).

The coming weeks will tell us whether the US president will follow through or back down again. At this stage, the market seems to be betting on the latter, given the movements of the last few days.

It is impossible to predict what Donald Trump will do on August 1, but one thing is clear: uncertainty remains, and this will push the Fed to wait and see. A rate cut in July is now definitely out of the question: September also seems rather optimistic as things stand.

The exceptionalism of corporate America

While uncertainty about the US economy remains high, investors have far fewer doubts about the large companies listed on the S&P 500. They continue to bet on the exceptionalism of corporate America, rather than on American exceptionalism.

After all, the S&P 500 is not the US economy, and the index is mainly driven by a few large tech stocks, whose growth trends show no signs of slowing down. A quote from Bank of America sums up the investor mindset perfectly: "The US is not exceptional, but corporate America may be."

Beyond technology, S&P 500 companies have shown in recent years that they can weather shocks, reorganize, and pass price increases on to consumers to preserve their margins.

This pricing power will be put to the test again in the coming months. Now that everyone understands that there will be significant tariffs, the question is who will bear the cost. According to Goldman Sachs' estimates, less than 20% of the cost of tariffs will be absorbed into margins.

Faced with uncertainty, investors are betting on corporate America_1

Finally, another factor that should benefit US companies in the coming quarters is the exchange rate. The dollar has depreciated significantly since the beginning of the year, which is helping US companies' overseas earnings. 40% of S&P 500 companies' revenue is generated internationally.

Since Covid, we have been living in an environment of successive shocks and high uncertainty. And every time investors have doubted, every time the likelihood of recession has risen, it has been the earnings season that has reassured the market. To quote a phrase often used by investors: "Never underestimate corporate America."

Source: marketscreener

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Adam

Economic

US dollar volatility may have settled down in recent weeks, but analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. see plenty of reasons to think it may start trading like a “riskier” currency again.

Analysts Karen Reichgott Fishman and Lexi Kanter list elevated policy uncertainty related to trade tariffs and Federal Reserve independence, fiscal fears and diversification away from US assets as potential triggers.

A steep slide in the dollar this year triggered by President Donald Trump’s threats to impose harsh levies against global trading partners has fueled speculation about a permanent shift in the dollar’s status as a safe-haven asset. While the Goldman analysts don’t predict that will happen, things could still be pretty bumpy in the short term.

“Shifting correlations have left dollar strength in periods of risk-off a less reliable outcome,” the analysts wrote in a note published July 9.

By some measures, the dollar has continued to trade like a risky currency even as it has stabilized in recent weeks. Data compiled by Bloomberg show that the correlation between the greenback and a widely watched G-10 volatility gauge is near its lowest in seven years.

That signals that the dollar is behaving less like a haven and more like a source of volatility. For much of the past 15 years, the correlation was firmly positive. It also puts the long-standing market belief that hedging costs fall when the dollar weakens into in question.

What Bloomberg strategists say...

“The outlook for the dollar is negative over the long term for multiple reasons: less global trade, de-dollarization, re-setting of hedging ratios. Yet it has undeniably sold off a lot already, and markets rarely take the direct path to where they are ultimately going. A bounce is probably in order.”

One of the most “striking” developments of 2025 has been the dollar’s increased tendency to sell off alongside US equities, the Goldman Sachs analysts said. The dynamic has occurred more than twice as often so far this year as over the prior 10 years, they said.

The “more concerning sign of reduced US asset appeal” — when equities, Treasuries and the dollar all fall together — has also been more common, according to the note.

Source: Bloomberg

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