Bitcoin Surpasses $124,000, New Record Set Amid Institutional Support

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Bitcoin surged past $124,000 on October 5-6, 2025, reaching an all-time high of $125,559. This increase is driven by institutional inflows, spot Bitcoin ETF growth, and macroeconomic factors, with institutions amassing significant BTC.

Key Points:

●Bitcoin hits all-time high, signaling strong market confidence.

●Institutional inflows drive significant price movement.

●ETF growth contributes to Bitcoin's positive trajectory.

Bitcoin Surpasses $124,000, New Record Set Amid Institutional Support

Bitcoin achieved a new high of $125,559 on October 6, 2025, after surpassing $124,000, driven by institutional inflows and ETF growth.

The new Bitcoin high signals significant institutional confidence and potential continued growth in the crypto market.

Bitcoin's Ascent and Institutional Dynamics

Bitcoin surpassed $124,000 on October 5-6, 2025, reaching a new record high of $125,559. This milestone was primarily driven by strong institutional inflows and the notable growth of spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Key players such as Bitwise and BlackRock have reported substantial inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, highlighting increased institutional participation. Juan Leon, Senior Investment Strategist at Bitwise, noted:

"Forget the short-term price action, you’re not bullish enough on crypto... There are many important developments happening in crypto that are independent of the sluggish short-term price action, and that are bullish for the industry longer-term."

Impact on the Crypto Landscape

Institutional inflows have significantly boosted Bitcoin's price, contributing to approximately $124 billion increase in market capitalization this October. The broader market, including ETH and SOL, has correlated positively with Bitcoin's rise.

The financial implications of this rise include enhanced confidence from major institutions like Citigroup, which raised its BTC year-end target to $132,000, reinforcing optimistic future outlooks.

Future Projections and Market Stability

Continued ETF inflows suggest a positive trend for Bitcoin, with large holders collectively amassing over 30,000 BTC in just 48 hours. This marks a significant confidence boost within the market.

The potential for future financial shifts is underscored by trends from past cycles, where similar events prompted broad sector momentum. This current stability at resistance levels hints at reduced volatility and market maturation.

Source: CryptoSlate

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Economic

Japan’s Political Pole Position: Takaichi’s Economic Legacy

Sanae Takaichi’s victory as the new leader of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party places her on track to become the country’s first female prime minister, a move that injects both symbolism and policy continuity into Tokyo’s governance. As a staunch advocate of Abenomics a mix of fiscal expansion, structural reform, and accommodative monetary policy Takaichi’s ascent has already shaped investor sentiment.

The Nikkei 225 surged over 4% on Monday to a record high of 47,944.76, while the yen weakened more than 1.7%, briefly touching the psychologically significant level of 150 per dollar. This correlation between currency depreciation and equity gains reflects investor expectations for renewed fiscal stimulus and slower monetary tightening by the Bank of Japan. The causal dynamic is clear: a weaker yen enhances export competitiveness, fueling stock rallies even as it raises concerns about inflation and import costs.

Energy Markets: OPEC+ Eases but Holds Its Grip

Meanwhile, oil producers have opted for cautious expansion. The OPEC+ bloc announced a modest production increase of 137,000 barrels per day starting in November a symbolic adjustment meant to stabilize global supply without undermining prices. Brent futures hovered near $65 a barrel following the decision.

This limited boost suggests producers are prioritizing market share while avoiding a supply glut. The result is a fragile equilibrium: enough output to appease importing nations while maintaining fiscal revenues for key exporters such as Saudi Arabia and Russia. The relationship here is one of controlled competition rather than full cooperation, revealing OPEC+’s delicate balancing act amid weak global demand.

United States: Equities Defy Shutdown Uncertainty

Across the Atlantic, Wall Street continues its improbable climb. The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all reached record highs last week before trimming gains on Friday. Futures rose again early Monday, even as the federal government shutdown stretched into its second week.

The absence of official labor data has not deterred investors; instead, it has amplified expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut later this month. “All news is good news, and no news matters,” observed Steve Sosnick of Interactive Brokers, capturing the sentiment that missing data reduces the risk of policy tightening. Yet this optimism may mask deeper fragility if the shutdown persists, delayed payrolls and federal spending could dampen Q4 economic output, making current valuations harder to justify.

Adding to fiscal unease, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett warned that mass layoffs could begin if negotiations remain stalled. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that around 750,000 federal employees may soon face unpaid leave, underscoring how political dysfunction can indirectly tighten financial conditions through labor disruption and consumer confidence erosion.

Asia’s Technology Front: U.S. Firms Hesitate in India

In a sign of shifting geopolitical trade dynamics, several major U.S. technology firms have paused plans to lease large data centers in India. Sources cited uncertainty stemming from worsening trade relations between Washington and New Delhi. The suspension, which has lasted over two months, highlights how sensitive cross-border tech investment remains to diplomatic tensions.

The decision carries both strategic and economic implications. India, once seen as a potential counterweight to China in global supply chains, may face a slowdown in its digital infrastructure ambitions. For U.S. firms, the hesitation reflects risk aversion: a correlation between political unpredictability and capital deployment. The causal factor trade tension could yet evolve into a structural obstacle if not resolved through new bilateral frameworks.

China: Foreign Capital Eyes a Tentative Return

Despite weak consumer sentiment and regulatory opacity, global investors are once again exploring opportunities in China. Authorities in Beijing are signaling a desire to revive foreign inflows after months of stagnation. However, while the government promotes financial openness, persistent capital controls and unpredictable policy shifts continue to constrain investor confidence.

This duality policy encouragement on the surface, control beneath creates a correlation trap: optimism spikes with official rhetoric but wanes when implementation lags. International brands, such as Louis Vuitton, are adapting by rebranding physical experiences and targeting younger consumers to maintain relevance in a slower, more competitive market.

Semiconductors: Momentum Meets Caution

Chip stocks remain one of the year’s standout performers. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) continues to outpace the S&P 500 by a wide margin, reflecting investors’ enthusiasm for AI-driven hardware demand. Yet analysts warn that valuations may have run ahead of fundamentals. If earnings growth in the next cycle fails to meet lofty expectations, the sector could face a sharp repricing.

This tension between innovation and speculation mirrors broader market psychology: optimism about transformative technology coexists with unease about asset bubbles. The relationship is not purely correlative policy-driven liquidity and investor sentiment have directly fueled semiconductor momentum, creating both opportunity and vulnerability.

A Global Circuit of Volatility and Opportunity

From Tokyo’s political shake-up to Washington’s fiscal standoff, the global economic stage is shifting rapidly. Markets are buoyant but fragile, supported more by liquidity and expectation than by certainty. Takaichi’s Japan, OPEC’s moderation, Wall Street’s resilience, and China’s tentative re-engagement all form parts of the same narrative one in which policy pivots, not fundamentals alone, are driving performance.

As the week begins, investors enter a high-speed race across unpredictable terrain. The engines of stimulus and rate cuts are still running, but the next turn be it inflation, policy reversal, or geopolitical flare-up could decide whether this global rally stays on track or spins out of control.

Source: CNBC

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Economic

Commodity

Forex

Energy – Oil rises on OPEC’s modest output hike

ICE Brent was trading above $65/bbl while NYMEX WTI was seen approaching $62/bbl this morning, amid a modest OPEC+ production increase for November and higher geopolitical risks. Recent reports suggest that Ukraine claims to have attacked one of Russia’s largest oil refineries, Kinef oil refinery, which holds an annual processing capacity of over 20mt. The attack took place over the weekend (the second time in a month), as Ukraine continues to put pressure on Russia’s energy infrastructure.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ agreed to boost crude oil production by 137k b/d in November (similar to last month), in contrast to markets expecting a more aggressive reintroduction of supply. The group remains cautious about increasing its production share in the global oil market on predictions of an upcoming supply surplus in the fourth quarter as well as next year. Last month, the IEA also predicted a record oil surplus for next year, primarily on rising OPEC+ supply.

Baker Hughes data shows that the US oil rig count saw its first weekly decline in six weeks following a weekly drop in crude oil prices. Recent data shows that crude oil rigs declined by two to 422 active rigs last week. While this is a very marginal decline, it does suggest that drilling activity may be stabilising on growing concerns over a supply glut and fears that a prolonged US shutdown would further hurt oil prices.The overall rig count (oil and gas combined) remains unchanged from last week and stood at 549 in the week ending 3 October 2025. However, it is still down 36 from the same time last year.

The latest positioning data shows that speculators sold 11,466 lots of ICE Brent for a second consecutive week over the last reporting week, leaving them with a net long position of 209,113 lots, a move predominantly driven by rising gross shorts positions. Meanwhile, the speculative data for NYMEX WTI is not available yet, as the CFTC weekly report was not released due to the ongoing government shutdown in the US.

Metals – Gold nears $3,950/oz

Gold prices hit another record high this morning, with spot gold breaking above $3,945/oz for the first time, as the prolonged US shutdown fuelled investors’ demand for safe-haven assets. The US disruption has delayed payroll data expected last Friday, further clouding an already uncertain economic outlook. With official data delayed, traders are depending on private reports for economic insight, while the central bank faces challenges in making monetary policy decisions. Still, markets expect a quarter-point rate cut this month, which could further support gold.

The latest data shows that total known ETF holdings for gold continue to report inflows of 52.5koz for a seventh consecutive session to 97.3moz as of Friday. Net inflows for the last week stand at 655.7koz, taking the total gold ETF holdings to the highest level since September 2022. Gold prices are already up by nearly 50% this year, driven by heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainty under US President Donald Trump. The Federal Reserve’s rate cuts and central bank moves to diversify away from dollar assets have also provided strong support.

In industrial metals, LME copper prices extended the upward rally for a fourth straight session this morning, with prices moving above $10,785/t (the highest since May 2024), amid expectations of US interest rate cuts and ongoing supply disruptions. Recent reports of supply disruptions at major mines – including Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (Grasberg), Codelco (EI Teniente) and Hudbay Minerals Inc. – have led to a sharp downward revision in the output guidance for the year.

Meanwhile, LME data shows that on-warrant inventories for lead fell by 26,525 tonnes (the biggest daily decline since 18 July 2025) after reporting gains for three consecutive sessions to 185,200 tonnes as of 3 October, the lowest since 20 May 2025. Most of the outflows were reported into Singapore warehouses. Total inventories of lead rose by 3,750 tonnes for a fourth straight session to 237,500 tonnes, while cancelled warrants increased by 30,275 tonnes for a second consecutive session to 52,300 tonnes for the period.

Agriculture – Coffee rallies further

Arabica coffee settled more than 3% higher on Friday amid dry weather conditions in Brazil, the world's top producer. Recent weather reports suggest that dry and hot weather will intensify over coffee-growing areas in Brazil by the end of the week, with a likely transition to a La Niña weather pattern adding risks to coffee development.

Turning to inventories, the latest official data shows that total coffee stocks at ICE-monitored warehouses have been declining continuously since 9 September and fell by 8.4k bags to 538.6k bags as of 3 October, the lowest since March 2024. This was primarily due to a sharp decline in Brazilian beans, just 6% as of Friday, compared to 63% at the start of the year. Earlier, CONAB revised down its Brazil arabica coffee production estimates from 37m bags to 35.2m bags for the 2025/26 season. The main flowering for Brazil’s 2026/27 crop is complete. However, October rains are crucial for continued growth.

The General Statistics Office of Vietnam released trade volume estimates for September, showing that coffee shipments are seen at 81kt, up 58.5% compared to 51.4kt reported a year ago. However, the coffee export estimates for September are down 4.7% month-on-month. Cumulative coffee exports rose by 10.9% year-on-year to 1.2mt over the first nine months of the year as overseas sales continue to remain strong.

Recent data from France’s Agriculture Ministry show that 24% of the corn has been harvested as of 29 September, up from 14% in the previous week. This pace is faster than previous seasons and is in line with the five-year average. Meanwhile, 62% of the corn crop is rated in good to excellent condition for the period mentioned above, in line with the previous week, but well below the 79% seen at the same period last year.

Source: ING

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Economic

A Historic Political Transition

Sanae Takaichi’s victory in Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership race positions her to become the country’s first female prime minister. A long-time conservative and ally of Shinzo Abe, she inherits a politically fragile environment following Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation after the LDP’s electoral setbacks in 2024 and 2025. Although the party governs as a minority, analysts see limited risk of her confirmation being blocked when the Diet convenes on October 15.

Takaichi’s immediate challenge is to secure cooperation from at least one opposition party to stabilize parliamentary support. The political calculus is delicate: opposition factions could gain influence through coalition participation but risk alienating voters disenchanted with the ruling LDP.

Economic Vision: Abenomics Reimagined

Takaichi’s economic philosophy is rooted in “Abenomics,” the framework combining loose monetary policy, expansionary fiscal spending, and structural reform. Her stance aligns with continuing government stimulus to drive growth and counter deflationary pressures, even as inflation risks rise. She has openly criticized the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) efforts to normalize policy, arguing for sustained accommodation to preserve competitiveness and employment.

The BOJ, led by Governor Kazuo Ueda, ended its negative interest rate regime in 2024 and currently maintains a 0.5% policy rate. Economists warn that if Takaichi amplifies fiscal expansion and tolerates a weaker yen, consumer prices could accelerate further. Author William Pesek remarked that her agenda “means more government spending, a weaker yen, and arguably more inflation.”

Market reaction has so far been positive, with the Nikkei 225 jumping 4.75% to 47,944.76, reflecting optimism about renewed stimulus. However, analysts caution that Japanese equities are approaching valuation peaks, with the Topix forward P/E ratio near 16 times, suggesting future returns may depend on tangible growth rather than monetary tailwinds.

Trade, Security, and the Trump Factor

Takaichi’s foreign and trade policies will face immediate tests. As Prime Minister Donald Trump’s administration reshapes U.S. alliances, she is viewed by Tokyo insiders as the LDP’s most capable figure to navigate direct negotiations with Washington. Her reported misgivings about the $550 billion U.S.-Japan investment framework and her suggestion of a possible “do-over” highlight a willingness to assert Japan’s interests more firmly.

This approach reflects continuity with Abe’s strategic autonomy but introduces a more nationalistic flavor. Managing ties with Trump whose transactional approach to trade and defense could pressure Japanese commitments will require careful diplomacy to maintain economic cooperation without political friction.

Nationalism and Regional Tensions

Takaichi’s conservative credentials extend beyond economics. She is an outspoken advocate for constitutional revision, particularly of Article 9, Japan’s pacifist clause that renounces war. Her visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, which honors Japan’s war dead including convicted war criminals, have drawn condemnation from China and South Korea. These actions, combined with her hawkish views on Beijing, reinforce perceptions of her as a nationalist leader seeking to redefine Japan’s postwar identity.

Takaichi is also seen as supportive of Taiwan. President Lai Ching-te described her as a “staunch friend of Taiwan,” underscoring potential friction with Beijing at a time of heightened cross-Strait tension. Observers such as Kei Okamura of Neuberger Berman believe she will tread carefully: “Her views on China and Korea are well known, but she understands the need to maintain strong relations with the U.S. and regional partners.”

Policy Outlook and Market Implications

Under a Takaichi administration, sectors such as defense, technology, and export-oriented manufacturing are likely to benefit from continued fiscal support and a weaker yen. Conversely, financial and real estate firms may face headwinds from inflationary pressures and rising long-term yields.

Her approach suggests Japan will double down on industrial competitiveness while sustaining a degree of financial repression keeping interest rates low to finance large-scale spending. If executed effectively, this could stimulate domestic innovation and energy transition investment; if mismanaged, it risks reinforcing fiscal imbalances and eroding household purchasing power.

Sanae Takaichi’s anticipated premiership embodies both continuity and confrontation. She inherits Abe’s economic doctrine but faces a more inflationary world, a complex alliance landscape, and an electorate anxious about living costs. Her success will hinge on balancing nationalist ambitions with pragmatic governance, ensuring that Japan’s revival narrative does not succumb to the very structural constraints Abenomics once sought to overcome.

Source: CNBC

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Samantha Luan

Forex

Political

Economic

The resignation of the new French Prime Minister_1

French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu delivers a statement at the Hotel Matignon in Paris, on October 3, 2025, ahead of a round of consultations with political parties before the announcement of the new government.

New French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned on Monday, just hours after appointing his new government, after both his allies and rivals threatened to bring down his government. His resignation was unexpected and unprecedented, marking another significant escalation of France's political crisis. French stocks fell sharply, along with the euro, after news of the resignation. After weeks of consultations with political parties across the country, Lecornu, a close ally of President Emmanuel Macron, appointed his ministers on Sunday, and the cabinet was scheduled to hold its first meeting on Monday afternoon.

But the new government lineup has angered opponents and allies alike, who find it either too right-wing or insufficiently so, raising questions about how long it can last at a time when France is already in the grip of a deep political crisis, with no single group holding a majority in a fragmented parliament.

Lecornu submitted his resignation to Macron on Monday morning.

The Elysée Palace press office announced that "Mr. Sébastien Lecornu submitted the resignation of his government to the President of the Republic, who accepted it." French political instability has increased since Macron's re-election in 2022, with no party or bloc commanding a parliamentary majority. Macron's decision to call early parliamentary elections last year deepened the crisis, resulting in an even more divided parliament. Lecornu, appointed only last month, was Macron's fifth prime minister in two years.

Source: Reuters

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Samantha Luan

Economic

Cryptocurrency

Commodity

Forex

Mounting fiscal uncertainty in major economies is accelerating a shift into Bitcoin, gold, and silver, as investors brace for further currency debasement.

Key Takeaways:

● Investors are moving into Bitcoin, gold, and silver as fears of currency debasement rise in major economies.

● Japan’s yen dropped 1.6% after pro-stimulus politician Sanae Takaichi led the PM race, adding pressure to global fiat currencies.

● Bitcoin’s surge past $125K and gold’s fresh highs reflect growing demand for hard assets.

The so-called “debasement trade” has gained traction amid rising national debts and political instability, prompting a broad retreat from fiat assets, according to a Monday report by Bloomberg.

Yen Sinks 1.6% as Pro-Stimulus Candidate Takaichi Leads Japan PM Race

In Japan, the yen dropped 1.6% on Monday after pro-stimulus lawmaker Sanae Takaichi emerged as the frontrunner to become the country’s next prime minister.

Her expected policies dim hopes for near-term monetary tightening, sending the currency to record lows against both Bitcoin and gold.Meanwhile, the dollar continues to weaken under the weight of a prolonged U.S. government shutdown and debt concerns, losing roughly 30% of its value against Bitcoin since the start of the year.Europe offers little reassurance. The euro slipped 0.1% against the dollar as fresh political tension in France clouded the outlook.The region’s high debt burden and fragmented policy responses have further fueled investor unease.

As traditional currencies falter, Bitcoin is hovering near its latest all-time high above $125,000, while gold touched fresh records and silver edged closer to its peak.Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group, described the surge in demand for these assets as a classic momentum trade, amplified by political chaos and inflation risks. “You’ve got to be in it,” he said.JPMorgan analysts echoed that sentiment in a research note dated Oct. 3, pointing to Washington’s dysfunction and the dollar’s familiar pattern of losing ground to alternative reserves.

They likened the current flight to gold and Bitcoin to investor behavior during the 2008 financial crisis and years of aggressive monetary stimulus.Despite a minor rebound in the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index on Monday, the greenback remains down about 8% for the year.With global markets gripped by uncertainty, Bitcoin and gold are increasingly seen not just as speculative plays but as defensive havens against fiscal mismanagement and fiat erosion.

Bitcoin Surges to New All Time High Above $125K

As reported, Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high above $125,700 on Sunday morning, breaking past its previous record of $124,500 set in August, according to data from CoinMarketCap.The milestone came as centralized exchanges report the lowest levels of Bitcoin reserves in six years, signaling a tightening supply backdrop amid growing investor demand.

The sharp recovery marks a strong start to October, often dubbed “Uptober” by traders, after Bitcoin slipped to $107,800 in early September.Over the past week, the asset has climbed steadily, buoyed by renewed optimism and tightening exchange liquidity.Notably, Bitcoin’s surge past $124,000 has driven Strategy Inc.’s BTC holdings to a record $77.4 billion, the company revealed Friday.The firm, which began accumulating BTC in 2020 as a corporate treasury asset, has seen its holdings grow exponentially from an initial valuation of $2.1 billion to over 35 times that amount in just five years.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Economic

Contracts tied to the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2 percent, 0.3 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively, pointing to follow-through after a strong week in which the S&P 500 gained 1.1 percent, the Nasdaq Composite added 1.3 percent and the Dow rose 1.1 percent. The move reflects a continuation of large-cap momentum that has carried major indexes to fresh records, despite an information gap created by the shutdown.

Data Vacuum And Market Behavior

The shutdown has delayed official releases, starting with the September jobs report. The short-term market response appears correlated with the absence of potentially market-moving surprises, and some participants argue this removes a near-term headwind to price action.

It is more precise to say the delay reduces event risk rather than directly causes prices to rise. The causal channel that matters for valuation is the policy path, and fewer data points can nudge rate expectations if private gauges, such as ADP and ISM, continue to suggest cooling labor demand.

Policy Expectations In Focus

Rates markets continue to price a quarter-point cut by month end, a stance that affects discount rates and supports longer-duration growth equities. Fed Governor Stephen Miran speaks Wednesday and Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday, events that can shift the causal driver of prices by clarifying the reaction function in the absence of official reports.

The University of Michigan’s October sentiment survey will supply the week’s key private-sector reading, helping investors triangulate consumption trends.

Gold’s Record Run And What It Signals

December gold futures traded as high as 3,920.63 dollars an ounce and sat near 3,957.90 dollars, placing the 4,000 level within reach. The connection here is largely causal, not merely correlative. Lower expected policy rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset, and uncertainty around fiscal operations elevates demand for stores of value.

If the market continues to discount additional easing or a softer fourth quarter as the shutdown drags on, bullion’s carry disadvantage narrows further, supporting price.

Earnings Season As A Reality Check

With the official data pipeline constrained, micro signals take on outsized importance. PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines and Levi Strauss report this week and can either validate or challenge the narrative of resilient demand and margin stability. Positive revisions would extend the causal chain from policy expectations to earnings durability, while weak guidance would expose a correlation fallacy if prices have outrun fundamentals.

The most immediate risk is a shift in Fed rhetoric if officials stress data dependence and caution against extrapolating private indicators. A protracted shutdown can damp economic activity in the fourth quarter, potentially prompting two cuts rather than one, as some strategists suggest, yet equities may not automatically welcome that scenario if it coincides with earnings weakness. Another risk lies in narrow market leadership. If AI-linked optimism continues to blur the distinction between productive investment and speculative excess, sentiment can decouple from cash-flow trajectories, creating fragility when policy or guidance surprises arrive.

Futures strength reflects confidence that policy will stay supportive, that big-cap tech leadership can persist, and that the missing data will not interrupt the uptrend. Gold’s surge toward 4,000 illustrates how markets are simultaneously hedging that optimism. The next decisive inputs will come from Fed communication and early earnings, which will determine whether today’s gains rest on durable causes or on a correlation that fades once the data calendar restarts.

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