Bitcoin Stalls As Whale Moves, ETF Outflows Rise

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Bitcoin’s price stayed subdued on December 25 as renewed activity from large holders, including whale transfers to exchanges, combined with continued outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, unset

Bitcoin's price stayed subdued on December 25 as renewed activity from large holders, including whale transfers to exchanges, combined with continued outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, unsettled market sentiment, raised concerns about potential sell pressure, and left traders cautious despite BTC holding above key technical support levels overall market.

Bitcoin ETFs See Continued Outflows, Weak Demand

A long-inactive Bitcoin whale and asset manager BlackRock moved large sums of BTC to centralized exchanges on the day according to blockchain analytics firm Onchain Lens.

BlackRock had invested 2,292 BTC that had a value of about 199.8 million dollars in Coinbase. In another transaction, a whale wallet that was dormant in eight years transferred 400 BTC, worth about 34.92 million, to the OKX exchange.

Traders keep a close eye on such transfers, which massive deposits to exchanges would typically suggest to them that there is sell-side pressure.

No direct spot selling was established, but the flows were sufficiently sufficing to place market participants on their toes.

The warning sound was supported by the ongoing weak institutional flows. According to the data provided by SoSoValue, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced their fifth day in a row of net outflows. The continual withdrawals were an indication that the institutional demand was still weak despite the fact that Bitcoin was trading above key technical support levels.

: Source: SoSoValue

Bitcoin Leverage Declines as Traders Reduce Risk

Meanwhile, there was an overall fall in leverage in the derivatives market. BTC was trading around $87,700 at press time, falling about 0.35% on the day. According to CoinGlass, open interest was dropped at 0.99% to $57.42 billion, which means that traders were not taking on risk as they were not aggressively positioning themselves to expect a price breakout.

: Source: Coinglass

Positioning information suggested areas of bullish conviction in spite of the leverage pullback. The Liquidation Map of CoinGlass indicated that its largest concentration of leverage was on the downside and on the upside to $85,966 and 88,636 respectively.

The long leveraged positions (of a total of around 646.17 million) were concentrated nearer to the bottom whereas the short leveraged positions (of the total of around 422.42 million) were concentrated above the Bitcoin price, indicating that the traders were generally confident that BTC would be above the zone of support of 85,966.

In a larger technical context, BTC is stuck in a range of consolidation. The weekly chart analysis indicates that BTC has been trading at an average bottom of about $86,000 to a top of about $93,500 since mid-November. Such long periods of steady consolidation are, in the past, usually followed by sharp swings in one way or the other.

: Source: Tradingview

Since Bitcoin has been fluctuating around the lower part of this range, there has been an increased fear of a possible breakdown. Technical analysts believe that a daily close below the support of the $86,000 may open up to further decline.

On the contrary, the bearish view would be nullified in case BTC were to advance beyond the upper resistance at about 93,500 mark and herald another bullish breakout.

Whale action, ETF outflows, and to a certain extent, thinning leverage have so far joined hands to hold the Bitcoin traders squarely on the defensive side.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Gerik

Economic

Return To Surplus After Nearly Three Decades

Japan's fiscal trajectory is on the verge of a historical turning point. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi recently announced that the country is projected to record a primary balance surplus in its initial national budget for fiscal year 2026 a milestone last achieved in 1998. This development represents a major symbolic and practical shift for a country that has grappled with ballooning public debt and chronic fiscal deficits for more than 27 years.

According to the Finance Ministry, the projected national-level primary surplus will reach ¥1.34 trillion, not accounting for additional local government data or potential mid-year fiscal interventions. The Cabinet Office’s final balance sheet, which includes local finances, will be disclosed in the coming months. Given the positive contribution of local governments in recent years, the full fiscal picture is expected to remain in surplus unless an additional national budget is introduced later in the fiscal year.

A Delicate Balance Between Spending and Sustainability

The fiscal 2026 budget, approved by the cabinet earlier this week, amounts to a record ¥122.3 trillion (approximately $782 billion). Despite its size, the government has achieved a reduction in new government bond issuance compared to the previous year. This was made possible by strong tax revenue performance, which has limited the need for increased borrowing.

Prime Minister Takaichi emphasized that the proposed budget is designed to strike a balance between sustaining economic growth and reinforcing long-term fiscal discipline. This positioning is critical, given that Japan’s debt burden remains among the highest in the developed world. The government’s ability to avoid further debt accumulation in a high-spending framework rests on robust revenue inflows a scenario facilitated in part by current inflationary conditions.

The surplus is expected to serve as reassurance for financial markets that have been increasingly concerned about Japan’s fiscal outlook. Rising bond yields with 10-year government bonds recently climbing to 2.1%, the highest level since 1998 have reflected investor unease about the sustainability of Japan’s public finances, especially under expansionary fiscal policy.

Fiscal Metrics and Political Messaging

While the Takaichi administration continues to acknowledge the importance of the primary balance as a fiscal benchmark, it has gradually shifted emphasis toward the debt-to-GDP ratio as a more practical and inflation-adjusted measure of fiscal health. This strategic shift aligns with broader macroeconomic trends, particularly in an environment where inflation can help reduce the real burden of outstanding debt.

Nonetheless, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama made clear that the primary balance target has not been abandoned. Instead, the administration is taking a more longitudinal approach, assessing fiscal performance across multiple years rather than aiming for single-year milestones. This approach may reflect the government’s intention to build credibility incrementally, avoiding abrupt policy shifts that could unsettle growth or political stability.

It is also important to note that Japan had originally targeted a primary balance surplus by fiscal 2011. However, this goal was repeatedly deferred due to persistent economic headwinds, natural disasters, and evolving political priorities. The anticipated achievement in fiscal 2026 therefore marks not just a statistical milestone, but a delayed realization of a long-standing policy objective.

Analyzing Causal and Correlational Factors

The projected surplus is shaped by several intertwined factors. The rise in tax revenue a causal driver has directly reduced the government’s reliance on debt financing. Similarly, reduced bond issuance has mitigated pressures on the bond market, contributing to a more stable funding environment. These outcomes are the result of proactive fiscal management rather than passive correlation.

On the other hand, the decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio is partly a function of inflationary trends, which are correlated with a higher nominal GDP rather than directly caused by fiscal discipline. Therefore, while inflation has made certain fiscal targets easier to attain on paper, it does not reflect a fundamental structural improvement unless supported by sustained policy efforts.

The relationship between government spending and market confidence is also complex. While increased spending can raise concerns about fiscal recklessness, in this case, it appears that the market has responded positively to the combination of strong revenue performance and reduced bond issuance indicating a nuanced interplay between fiscal expansion and perceived responsibility.

Japan’s return to a primary surplus marks a potential turning point in the country’s fiscal narrative. While the underlying debt burden remains a serious challenge, the projected surplus offers both symbolic reassurance and practical momentum for continued reforms. Prime Minister Takaichi’s ability to maintain pro-growth spending while navigating fiscal consolidation reflects a broader effort to redefine responsible fiscal governance in a changing economic landscape. However, maintaining the surplus in subsequent years will require continued discipline and adaptability, especially in the face of global uncertainties and domestic policy demands.

Source: Bloomberg

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Glendon

Stocks

Economic

Investors are looking for the US stock market to end 2025 on a high note next week, with equities at record peaks and nearing further bullish milestones to close out another strong year.

Major US indexes were on course to end December higher after stocks shook off turbulence earlier in the month driven by weakness in technology shares over worries tied to spending on artificial intelligence.

The S&P 500 posted a record close on Wednesday, ahead of the Christmas holiday on Thursday, and was about 1% from reaching the 7,000 level for the first time. The benchmark index was on track for its eighth straight month of gains, which would be its longest monthly winning streak since 2017-2018.

"Momentum is certainly on the side of the bulls," said Paul Nolte, senior wealth adviser and market strategist at Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management. "Barring any exogenous event, the path of least resistance for stocks, I think, is higher."

Minutes from the Federal Reserve's most recent meeting highlight the market events in the holiday-shortened week ahead, while year-end portfolio adjustments could cause some volatility at a time when light trading volumes can exaggerate asset price moves.

Heading into the new year, investors are highly focused on when the Fed might further cut interest rates. The US central bank, which balances goals of contained inflation and full employment, lowered its benchmark rate by 75 basis points over its last three meetings of 2025 to the current level of 3.5%-3.75%.

But the Fed's most recent vote at its December 9-10 meeting to lower rates by a quarter percentage point was divided, while policymakers also gave widely different projections about rates in the coming year. The minutes for that meeting, due to be released on Tuesday of next week, may be "illuminating to hear what some of the arguments were around the table," said Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede.

"Handicapping how many rate cuts we're going to get next year is a big thing markets are focused on right now," Reynolds said. "We'll just get a little bit more information on that next week."

Investors are also waiting for President Donald Trump to nominate a Fed chair to replace Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May, and any inkling of Trump's decision could sway markets in the coming week.

With just a handful of trading sessions left in 2025, the S&P 500 was up nearly 18% for the year, with the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite up 22%.

However, the tech sector, which has been the main driver of the more than three-year-old bull market, has struggled in recent weeks, while other areas of the market have shined. Despite rebounding this week, the S&P 500 tech sector has declined more than 3% since the start of November. Over that time, areas such as financials, transports, healthcare and small caps have posted solid gains.

The market moves indicate some rotation into areas where valuations are more moderate, said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial.

"There are more investors that are buying in to the narrative that the economy is on pretty solid footing right now," Saglimbene said. "And it has weathered a lot of potential roadblocks this year that might not be such roadblocks next year."

Source: Theedgemarkets

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Gerik

Economic

Commodity

A Historic Surge: Silver Outpaces Gold in 2025

Silver prices hit an all-time high on Friday, surpassing $75 per ounce amid a potent combination of strong industrial and investment demand, ongoing supply shortfalls, and the U.S. government’s recent classification of silver as a “critical mineral.” This dramatic rally, which has seen silver outperform gold by more than 2-to-1 in percentage terms in 2025, is also driven by speculative momentum.

As silver reclaims attention as both an industrial staple and a safe-haven asset, investors are turning to a variety of trading channels to access the metal.

Over-the-Counter (OTC): The Private Market Backbone

The largest global marketplace for physical silver operates in London through over-the-counter (OTC) bilateral trades. Major financial institutions like JPMorgan and HSBC maintain vaults filled with silver bullion, facilitating transactions between brokers and their clients.

This OTC market is less visible than public exchanges but remains essential for large-volume transactions, especially for institutional players. As of November 2025, vaults in London held over 27,000 tons of silver, serving as the physical backing for many global trades.

Futures Markets: Speculation and Hedging Instruments

Silver futures are actively traded on exchanges like the COMEX in New York and the Shanghai Futures Exchange. These standardized contracts allow traders to bet on the future price of silver without needing to handle the physical metal.

In most cases, futures aren’t held until delivery instead, positions are rolled over to later-dated contracts. This rolling strategy makes futures ideal for both hedgers and speculators. The appeal is further boosted by the use of margin: investors only need to deposit a portion of the contract’s full value to take a position, amplifying potential gains (and risks).

Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs): Democratizing Silver Access

ETFs such as the iShares Silver Trust, managed by BlackRock, have made silver investment more accessible to retail investors. Each ETF share represents a portion of actual silver held in vaults. Investors can buy and sell shares on major stock exchanges just like company stocks using platforms like Robinhood.

ETFs are particularly attractive because they allow small investors to gain exposure to silver without needing to worry about storage or security. As of December 2025, the iShares Silver Trust holds about 529 million ounces of silver, valued at roughly $39 billion.

Physical Silver: Bars and Coins for Individual Ownership

Beyond paper instruments, individuals can purchase physical silver in the form of bars and coins. These are available from mints and retailers worldwide and are popular among those who prefer tangible assets or distrust centralized financial systems.

Physical silver appeals not just for its aesthetic and collectible value, but also as a hedge against currency devaluation and geopolitical uncertainty.

Silver Mining Stocks: A Leveraged Bet on Prices

Investing in silver mining companies offers indirect exposure to the metal’s price while introducing other variables such as company performance, debt levels, and management quality. These stocks tend to correlate strongly with silver’s spot price but often exhibit greater volatility making them a favorite among risk-tolerant traders.

Popular mining stocks can be easily traded on public exchanges, with price swings reflecting both metal prices and corporate fundamentals.

A Metal with Many Market Faces

Silver’s historic rise in 2025 has spotlighted its versatility as both an industrial metal and an investment asset. Whether through London’s OTC trades, futures contracts, ETFs, physical purchases, or mining stocks, silver remains one of the most dynamic and accessible commodities on the global market.

Its trading ecosystem offers a broad spectrum of risk and reward, attracting both institutional giants and everyday investors alike. As silver cements its role in the global energy transition and high-tech manufacturing, its market significance and price volatility are likely to remain elevated.

Source: Reuters

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Gerik

Economic

Forex

Rupee’s Fragile Gains Reversed by Persistent Dollar Demand

Despite recent support from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the Indian rupee weakened slightly on Friday and booked its first weekly loss in two weeks, slipping to 89.85 per U.S. dollar. This marks a reversal from last week’s more than 1% appreciation, which was driven by aggressive RBI dollar sales that pulled the rupee away from record lows.

Traders attributed the rupee’s underperformance this week to continued demand for dollars from corporates and in the non-deliverable forward (NDF) market both of which chipped away at central bank-led support. A trader at a major private bank warned that upcoming maturing NDF positions next week may apply further pressure, possibly pushing the rupee beyond the 90.50 mark.

RBI’s Limited Room to Defend: Intervention vs. Reserve Accumulation

Even though the rupee stayed within a tight range on Friday, largely supported by state-run bank dollar sales around the 89.90 level, the broader trend suggests a fragile currency facing more downside risk. Analysts at ANZ noted that while further depreciation may occur, the RBI could use any appreciation windows to bolster its foreign reserves, which stood at a healthy $689 billion as of mid-December.

This strategy reflects a balancing act: the central bank intervenes to defend the rupee in times of volatility, but also remains opportunistic in rebuilding reserves when the currency strengthens. The 0.6% decline this week underscores the limits of sustained intervention, especially in the face of structural dollar demand and global market volatility.

Forward Premiums Fall Amid FX Swap Impact

The 1-year dollar-rupee forward premium dropped by 10 basis points to 2.74%, reflecting easing concerns over dollar liquidity following the RBI's recent FX swap announcement. This easing led to a wave of stop-loss selling in forward contracts, further pushing down implied yields and signaling less aggressive hedging in the short term.

Still, lower forward premiums may dampen the appeal of carry trades and reduce inflows, indirectly weighing on the rupee’s medium-term outlook.

Broader FX Market Dynamics: Dollar Weakness Fails to Lift INR

The rupee’s performance contrasts with broader Asian currency movements, which remained largely range-bound. The U.S. dollar index hovered near a two-month low and appeared poised for its fourth weekly loss in five weeks, suggesting that global dollar weakness has not yet translated into sustained support for the rupee.

The divergence highlights domestic structural pressures such as persistent trade deficits and capital outflows that continue to challenge the Indian currency, despite an overall dovish shift in global interest rate expectations.

Awaiting Trade Deal Catalyst Amid Cautious Sentiment

Looking ahead, traders and analysts see limited upside for the rupee without a significant catalyst. ANZ analysts suggested that a favorable trade deal with the U.S. could be the turning point for the currency. Until then, the rupee is expected to face “gradual depreciation,” particularly in the absence of major flows or positive macro triggers.

As market participants await clarity on the U.S.-India trade talks, the rupee may continue to tread water, caught between central bank defense on one side and relentless dollar demand on the other.

Source: Reuters

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Justin

Political

Economic

President Donald Trump has the chance to begin the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip. Delay will only destabilize the situation.

President Donald Trump's peace plan for Gaza, and his best hope for a Nobel Peace Prize, needs a big push when he meets with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu on December 29. As of Christmas, the plan appears to have stalled, but that is only partly true. Hamas's refusal to surrender its weapons is the big problem—but the solution is far more in President Trump's hands than most realize.

I led postwar planning for Iraq at the US State Department and worked on post-conflict operations in Bosnia, Kosovo, Iraq, East Timor, Libya, and Afghanistan. After Hamas' terrorist attack on October 7, 2023, along with many others, I warned of the dangers of failing to plan for postwar Gaza and joined a group of former senior officials to develop a plan for postwar Gaza. President Trump and his team, working with Israel and Arab allies, deserve the credit for Trump's twenty-point peace plan, codified in United Nations Security Council Resolution 2803.

Our plan got closer to Trump's final plan than anyone else: international governance for a transitional period, an international oversight board, working with Palestinians from Gaza, backed up by an international stabilization force, authorized by a United Nations Security Council resolution, with a non-American in charge of the civilian effort and a US general heading up the International Stabilization Force (ISF).

All living and all but one deceased Israeli hostages have been returned, but Hamas has neither disarmed nor given up governance of the west of a "Yellow Line" that divides Gaza in half. Apart from a Civil-Military Coordination Center in Kiryat Gat, Israel, no country has sent forces for the ISF that will provide security, oversee Hamas's disarmament, and allow the Israeli army to withdraw to Gaza's borders.

The Board of Peace, which Trump will chair, will not be announced until January. The Palestinian technocratic committee tasked with rebuilding Gaza's infrastructure has not yet been named. An executive committee that will handle vital day-to-day coordination among internationals, Palestinians, Israelis, Egyptians, and donor states has only four known names: highly respected Bulgarian diplomat Nikolay Mladenov, US envoy Steve Witkoff, Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, and former British prime minister Tony Blair.

While visionary plans exist, nobody has put up the money needed to start anything. Arab governments will not finance Gaza's reconstruction as long as Hamas retains its weapons, the use of which would invite Israeli retaliation, destroying whatever was rebuilt. Some think both Hamas and Israel are slow-rolling Trump's plan, increasing the suffering of the two million Gazans living in desperate circumstances and putting the security of both Israelis and Palestinians at risk while Hamas increases its chokehold over half of Gaza's territory and most of Gaza's people.

Despite this, much has been going on behind the scenes, but Trump now has to make a key choice among three clashing visions.

One, which Prime Minister Netanyahu will likely push, is Trump's approval for Israeli military action against Hamas fighters. The strategic logic is that a further weakened Hamas would eventually be unable to interfere with Trump's peace plan. However, this would result in Israeli and many Gazan casualties and disruption of humanitarian aid. How long this would take is unclear. Also, Netanyahu reportedly wants US support for an attack on Iran's missile program, which Iran is actively rebuilding. He may also ask for Trump's authorization to attack Hezbollah if it refuses to turn over its weapons to the Lebanese armed forces. Trump may agree to one of these ideas, but he will not agree to all of them.

The second is the plan that the Tony Blair Institute developed last summer. A leaked draft from September in Haaretz has a small international "executive secretariat" with five "commissioners" overseeing a Palestinian Executive Authority (PEA) that actually runs Gaza. This plan puts substantial responsibilities on the local Palestinians, who would not be affiliated with Hamas. Still, the leaked draft is weak on how Hamas would be disarmed and how to keep Hamas from extorting or coercing Gazans, including those in the PEA, into obeying its will.

It calls for partial deployment in the first two years, with full operations only in Year Three, which is too late. Audit mechanisms appear significantly understaffed. Corruption is a major reason many Palestinians mistrust the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah, and support for Gaza's reconstruction will evaporate if it replicates this failure.

With a total budget of only $90 million in the first year, the plan appears too small to oversee the amount of work required to start Gaza's physical and social reconstruction. This plan has almost certainly been improved since September, but Trump will want to know whether these problems have been addressed.

The third option is the Gaza Supply System, developed by Americans reporting to Witkoff and Kushner, which would use private capital to jump-start Gaza's physical and social reconstruction east of the Yellow Line, while employing private security contractors in roles the International Stabilization Force is unwilling to undertake. This would get around two roadblocks: first, no Arab governments have actually contributed billions of dollars to Gaza's reconstruction, and second, private security contractors are willing to work in Gaza even while the United States insists on no US boots on the ground, and other countries are unwilling to have their troops confront Hamas.

According to an article from The Guardian, private investors would be repaid for jump-starting Gaza's reconstruction through tariffs or tolls on aid and commercial trucks entering Gaza. The United States government similarly relied on customs duties and tariffs to fund public services and security until the advent of the income tax.

Historically, Hamas also charged tolls on aid trucks and taxed Gazans bringing in cash from jobs in Israel. And charging tolls on incoming trucks provides private investors with a positive incentive to increase the number of trucks entering Gaza, aligning their interests with those of the Gazan people while ensuring robust but not excessive security inspections.

Trump will have to decide soon which of these three competing proposals he will support. Waiting on Hamas to voluntarily disarm is unlikely to succeed, prolonging both the misery of 2 million Gazans and the security risk to both Israelis and Palestinians. Arab governments have not embraced Blair's plan.

The people of Gaza and Israel need to see progress, and waiting for an enlarged version of a postwar governance plan to be funded and staffed in mid-2026 is dangerously late. President Trump should approve a plan that starts, urgently, Gaza's physical and social reconstruction. The Gaza Supply System model, for all its limitations, is currently the best available approach to jump-start some level of security and reconstruction in at least half of Gaza. We have to start somewhere—and we need to start now.

Source: The National Interest

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Michelle

Political

China announced largely symbolic sanctions against 20 US defense companies and 10 executives, signaling its anger over Washington's latest arms sales to Taiwan while stopping short of a broader escalation.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry said on Friday it would sanction companies including Northrop Grumman Systems Corp., L3Harris Maritime Services, Boeing's operations in St. Louis, as well as Vantor, formerly known as Maxar Intelligence. The measures include freezing any assets the companies hold in China and banning them from doing business with Chinese entities.

China is also targeting executives at defense companies, including Palmer Luckey, founder of Anduril Industries Inc., and Vantor Chief Executive Officer Dan Smoot, freezing their assets in China and barring dealings and entry to the mainland, Hong Kong and Macau.

The sanctions follow what Beijing described as "large-scale" US arms sales to Taiwan. The State Department said last week that Washington has approved a package worth up to $11 billion — one of its largest ever for the island — covering equipment including missiles, drones and artillery systems.

"Any provocative actions that cross the line on the Taiwan issue will be met with a forceful response from China," a Foreign Ministry spokesperson said in an accompanying statement on Friday. "Any enterprise or individual involved in arms sales to Taiwan will pay the price for their misguided actions."

In reality the impact of the measures is likely to be limited. Most of the companies and executives targeted have little or no presence in China, and some were already placed on the Commerce Ministry's unreliable entity list.

China views Taiwan as a breakaway province that must ultimately be brought under its control, by force if necessary — a position Taipei firmly rejects. Since President Lai Ching-te took office in May 2024, Beijing has stepped up military pressure on the self-governing island of 23 million people.

The issue continues to loom large in US-China relations. In a phone call last month, Chinese leader Xi Jinping told President Donald Trump that Taiwan's return to China was an "integral part of the postwar international order."

Nevertheless, Beijing and Washington have sought to steady ties. They agreed to a one-year truce in their trade dispute, under which China ensures US access to rare earths vital to industries ranging from smartphones to missile systems, while the US lowers tariffs on Chinese goods.