Bitcoin Rockets Past $111,000 — Is A Crash Coming?

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Bitcoin has just broken a legendary ceiling at $111,000, heightening hopes for a financial revolution. But behind this euphoria, the threat of a sudden crash looms. This new record reveals both the strength and fragility of a market disrupted by scarcity, regulation, and global tensions.

In brief

Bitcoin surpassed $111,000, driven by post-halving scarcity and enhanced institutional adoption through ETFs.
Macroeconomic risks, such as a strong dollar and geopolitical tensions, could trigger a sharp correction.
Regulatory developments, notably the GENIUS law, and institutional interest will heavily influence bitcoin’s future trajectory.

The bitcoin rocket takes off and could soon reach the stars

Bitcoin, after smashing a crazy record at $110,000, has just shattered a new historic record by surpassing the symbolic $111,000 mark. This milestone evokes a dual emotion: the euphoria of a major asset becoming essential and the tension of a market where risks accumulate in the background. Among the factors driving the rise, we have:

The halving

This periodic event that halves the creation of new bitcoins is beginning to heavily weigh on the available supply. Indeed, this contraction in quantity injected fuels intense upward pressure.

The decrease of bitcoins on exchanges

Meanwhile, BTC availability on trading platforms is dwindling, intensifying the scarcity effect. Investors now face a market where bitcoins for sale are rare, mechanically boosting its valuation. This could further propel BTC to new heights.

Bitcoin availability on trading platforms in decline.

Why could BTC soon collapse despite $111,000?

Despite its decentralized aura, bitcoin remains sensitive to the upheavals of major economic powers, and these factors could abruptly halt BTC’s progress:

A strengthening dollar, with the DXY index rising more than 5% in three months, makes foreign assets more expensive and dampens appetite for bitcoin, often causing pullbacks;
Geopolitical tensions, like the US-China conflict and crises in the Middle East, increase volatility of risky assets, making BTC vulnerable to sudden movements linked to political events.

These external factors could shake investor confidence and trigger violent corrections.

Institutional hope to save BTC?

Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, points out that institutional adoption and the rise of Bitcoin spot ETFs provide strong market support. However, he reminds us that BTC’s trajectory is far from linear:

Bitcoin has reached a new historic high, surpassing $110,000, with accelerating institutional adoption and increasing regulatory clarity. The demand for Bitcoin spot ETFs continues to rise, amplified by a tightening post-halving supply that sharpens market dynamics and sets the stage for further price appreciation […] Bitcoin’s momentum seems strong for now, but the path ahead will still be fraught with obstacles.

Additionally, the progress of the GENIUS law, currently under investor scrutiny, will play a decisive role in reinforcing or weakening this BTC momentum.

Bitcoin outlook in the short and medium term

In the short and medium term, the scenario remains fragile. Some analysts even forecast volatility reaching 30% in the coming months, with a risk of a temporary pullback that could bring bitcoin down to around $90,000 before a possible rebound. The key for investors is to adopt a flexible stance, attentive to macroeconomic and regulatory signals. Confidence in BTC relies mainly on a precarious balance between financial innovation and an uncertain global context.

Bitcoin’s recent surge to $111,000 is not just a new record but a turning point revealing a new reality: a crypto driven by institutional investors. Moreover, the bold bet by several states on funds like Strategy could propel BTC to $500,000, further increasing institutional interest. Will this new momentum mark the beginning of an era or precipitate a major correction? Only time will tell.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Oil prices dropped by more than 1% on Thursday after a report that OPEC+ is discussing a production increase for July, stoking concerns that global supply could exceed demand growth.

Brent futures fell 96 cents, or around 1.5%, to $63.95 a barrel by 1322 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 91 cents, also around 1.5%, at $60.66.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known collectively as OPEC+, are discussing whether to make another large output increase at their meeting on June 1, Bloomberg News reported.

An increase of 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) for July is among the options under discussion, though no final agreement has been reached, the report said, citing delegates.

Reuters previously reported that that the group planned to accelerate output increases and could bring back as much as 2.2 million bpd by November. OPEC+ has been in the process of unwinding production cuts, with additions to the market in May and June.

"We're seeing the market reacting to evidence that OPEC is letting go of a strategy to defend price in favour of market share," said Harry Tchiliguirian at Onyx Capital Group. "It's a bit like taking off a Band-Aid; you do it in one fell swoop."

In a note on Wednesday, RBC Capital analyst Helima Croft said that a 411,000 bpd increase from July is the "most likely outcome" from the meeting, primarily from Saudi Arabia.

"A key question will be whether the voluntary cut will be fully drawn down before the leaves turn brown in many parts of the world, in line with the original taper schedule," she said.

Prices were already lower in the session after Energy Information Administration data released on Wednesday showed U.S. crude and fuel inventories showed surprise stock builds last week as crude imports hit a six-week high and gasoline and distillate demand slipped.

Crude inventories rose by 1.3 million barrels to 443.2 million barrels in the week ended May 16, the EIA said. Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected a drawdown of 1.3 million barrels.

The EIA's surprise stock builds will exert downward pressure on prices, particularly on WTI, said Emril Jamil at LSEG Oil Research, adding that this could further encourage more U.S. exports to Europe and Asia.

While OPEC+ deliberates, a rising yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds suggests that the producer group could be increasing oil supply into a market with lower demand.

Source: Reuters

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Stocks

U.S. stock index futures traded in a muted fashion Thursday, steadying after the previous session’s sharp selloff on concerns over high U.S. debt levels.

At 05:55 ET (09:55 GMT), Dow Jones Futures slipped 42 points, or 0.1%, while S&P 500 Futures rose 6 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures gained 50 points, or 0.2%.

The main averages slumped on Wednesday, with the blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average falling over 800 points, weighed down by a spike in U.S. Treasury yields partly sparked by concerns that U.S. President Donald Trump’s tax bill would add trillions of dollars to America’s already-massive debt pile.

Weak demand for a $16 billion auction of 20-year Treasury bonds also put upward pressure on yields, which tend to move inversely to prices.

House passes tax and spending bill

U.S. President Donald Trump’s tax and spending bill narrowly passed the House of Representatives on Thursday morning, overcoming days of political wrangling between Republicans in control of the lower chamber of Congress.

The measure passed by a narrow 215-214 margin, with one member voting present, as all Democrats opposed the bill.

The bill now moves to the Senate, where some lawmakers are pushing for revisions, with a vote on approval expected by August.

The U.S. House Rules Committee on late Wednesday approved President Donald Trump’s expansive tax and spending bill after a nearly 22-hour session, media reports showed.

Along with the extension of 2017 tax cuts, the legislation would slash taxes charged on tips and car loans, while boosting spending on defense and border security. Reductions to key food and health programs for low-income Americans are also included in the bill.

Nonpartisan analysts have said the changes would add between $3 trillion to $5 trillion to the U.S.’s $36.2 trillion debt load.

Earlier, it was uncertain if House Speaker Mike Johnson would secure enough Republican support to pass the bill. Some GOP lawmakers demanded deeper spending cuts to offset Trump’s desired tax breaks, although Johnson said he was confident he could secure their backing to overcome united Democratic opposition.

May flash PMIs due

Economic concerns, exacerbated by the trade turmoil over the last couple of months, have also weighed on stock markets.

Investors will now focus on the upcoming preliminary reading of business activity in May that could provide fresh insight into the impact of Trump’s tariffs.

S&P Global’s composite purchasing managers’ index cooled to 50.6 last month, down from 53.5 in March and only slightly above the 50-point level denoting expansion.

The index’s tracker of the manufacturing sector is seen slowing to 49.9 in May, while the services gauge is expected to edge up slightly to 51.0.

Snowflake surges on raised forecast

In the corporate sector, Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW) stock surged premarket after the cloud-based data storage company raised its fiscal 2026 forecast for product revenue, betting on strong demand for its data analytics services as enterprises prioritize artificial intelligence spending.

Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ:URBN) stock soaring premarket following a stronger-than-expected quarterly report - the second straight quarter of strong revenue gains and the third consecutive quarter of accelerating EPS growth.

Crude falls on OPEC+ output talk

Oil prices fell further Thursday on renewed oversupply concerns, following a report suggesting that a group of top producers was considering raising output levels once more.

At 05:55 ET (09:55 GMT), Brent Oil Futures fell 1.4% to $63.99 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped 1.4% to $60.69 per barrel.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, a group known as OPEC+, is discussing whether to agree on another large production increase at their meeting on June 1, Bloomberg News reported on Thursday.

An output hike of 411,000 barrels a day (bpd) for July is among the options under discussion, although no final agreement has yet been reached, the report said, citing delegates.

OPEC+ has been in the process of unwinding output cuts, with additions to the market in May and June.

source : investing

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Forex

Technical Analysis

Market Overview

The US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped toward $99.52 during early US trading, marking its fourth straight day of losses. The drop reflects investor caution ahead of the S&P Global PMI release, amid a weakening economic outlook, a recent credit downgrade by Moody’s, and growing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025.

Credit Downgrade and Fed Remarks Add Pressure

Moody’s lowered the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing unsustainable debt growth. Federal debt is projected to climb from 98% of GDP in 2023 to 134% by 2035, while the budget deficit could hit 9% of GDP.

Rising debt servicing costs, coupled with increased entitlement spending and declining revenues, are dimming the fiscal outlook. Federal Reserve officials have also flagged risks.

At a recent Fed panel, Presidents Daly, Hammack, and Bostic warned of falling consumer confidence and the risks of erratic trade policy.

Cooling CPI and PPI prints and weak retail sales have strengthened bets on further Fed easing—adding downward pressure on the dollar.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

Dollar Index Price Chart

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at $99.52, struggling below a broken ascending trendline and trapped beneath the $99.82 pivot. Price recently sliced through both the 50-EMA at $100.24 and 200-EMA at $100.77, signaling a loss of near-term momentum.

Structure-wise, DXY failed to hold its higher low pattern and is now consolidating near key support. Immediate resistance is at $99.83, followed by $100.16. On the downside, watch $99.18 and $98.56 as the next supports.

Candlesticks are showing small bodies and wicks, suggesting indecision—possibly a base forming or just a pause before further decline. For now, bears hold control unless price reclaims $100+ with conviction.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD Price Chart

The GBP/USD is holding steady at $1.3428, consolidating near the top of a rising channel that’s guided price action since mid-May. The pair recently reclaimed the $1.3410 level, which now acts as a near-term pivot.

Immediate resistance is seen at $1.3468, with a break above that opening the door toward $1.3513 and potentially $1.3568. Price remains comfortably above the 50-EMA at $1.3346 and the 200-EMA at $1.3233, reinforcing the bullish trend.

Small-bodied candles near resistance suggest hesitation, but as long as higher lows hold, the structure favors the bulls. A pullback toward $1.3410 or $1.3335 could offer better entry for continuation higher.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart

The EUR/USD is holding at $1.1328, hovering just above a key breakout zone near $1.1311, which previously acted as descending trendline resistance. Price briefly challenged the $1.1377 resistance but is now stalling with small-bodied candles—often a sign of indecision.

A successful retest of the trendline could confirm support and fuel another leg higher. Immediate resistance is $1.1377, followed by $1.1425. On the downside, support is seen at $1.1300 and $1.1269.

The 50-EMA at $1.1257 and 200-EMA at $1.1205 remain upward-sloping, reinforcing bullish structure. If momentum holds, bulls may target $1.1475 next, but failure to hold $1.1310 opens a potential slide back toward $1.1269.

Source: fxempire

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Glendon

Political

Russia seems reluctant to pursue peace at the moment as the country is widely believed to be planning a new summer offensive in Ukraine to consolidate territorial gains in the southern and eastern parts of the nation. Moscow’s increasing economic and military pressures at home could be the factors that drive Russia to the negotiating table.

The country has shown little appetite for peace negotiations with Ukraine despite Russia making a show of what war analysts described as a performative ceasefire. There have also been a number of attempts by U.S. President Donald Trump to persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin to talk to Kyiv.

Russia’s struggling war economy might be what drives it to negotiate

Moscow’s alleged plans to push an offensive this summer in Ukraine to capture the eastern part of the country could give Russia more leverage in any future talks. The country’s economic and military strain, ranging from supplies of military hardware and recruitment of soldiers to sanctions on revenue-generating exports like oil, might be what eventually drives Russia to the negotiating table.

Jack Watling, senior research fellow for Land Warfare at the Royal United Service Institute (RUSI) in London, said in an analysis Tuesday that Russia will seek to intensify offensive operations to build pressure during negotiations. He also believes that the country’s pressure cannot be sustained indefinitely.

“At the same time, while Russia can fight another two campaign seasons with its current approach to recruitment, further offensive operations into 2026 will likely require further forced mobilization, which is both politically and economically challenging.”

-Jack Watling, Researcher for Land Warfare at the Royal United Service Institute.

Watling also noted that Moscow’s military equipment stockpiles left over from the Soviet era, including tanks, artillery, and infantry fighting vehicles, will be running out between now and mid-fall. He believes that Russia’s ability to replace losses will be entirely dependent on what it can produce from scratch.

Russia’s economy slows amid continued war tensions

The country has signaled a decline in its war-focused economy, which has faced international sanctions as well as homegrown pressures largely resulting from war. Russia is facing rampant inflation and high food and production costs that even Putin described as alarming.

Russia’s central bank (CBR) has maintained high interest rates (at 21%) to lower the inflation rate, which was at 10.2% in April. The bank acknowledged earlier this month that a disinflationary process is underway. The CBR also argued that a prolonged period of tight monetary policy is still required for inflation to return to its target of 4% in 2026.

Liam Peach, senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, said last week the sharp slowdown in Russian GDP from 4.5% year-on-year in the fourth quarter to 1.4% in the first quarter is consistent with a sharp fall in output. He also believes the data suggested that Moscow’s economy may be heading for a continued sharp downturn than was expected.

Peach noted that a sharp drop in GDP growth surprised them since they had expected a slowdown to take hold in 2025. He argued that a technical recession is possible over the first half of this year, and GDP growth over 2025 as a whole could come in significantly below their current forecast of 2.5%.

Alexander Kolyandr, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, maintained that the growth that remains in the Russian economy is concentrated in manufacturing, especially the defense sector and related industries.

He noted in an analysis for CEPA that Russia’s economy is cooling after three years of militarizing the country. Kolyandr said the slowdown in inflation, less borrowing by companies and consumers, declining imports, industrial output, and consumer spending all pointed to the slowdown continuing.

The Economic Development Ministry also predicted that Russia’s economic growth will slow from 4.3% in 2024 to 2.5% this year. Kolyandr added that the economy is not demobilizing, but it is just running out of steam. According to him, bad decisions by policymakers, a further dip in oil prices, or carelessness with inflation could result in dire consequences for Moscow.

Source: CryptoSlate

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Economic

Dow is seen dropping

Having reached a 2 1/2 month high at 42,842, marginally above its 42,821 late March high, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen back below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 42,318 close to last week's low at 41,778 on US fiscal concerns.

The index is expected to come further off and fill its 41,899 to 41,512 early May price gap and may also revisit its 55-day SMA at 41,134 and its April-to-May uptrend line before recovering.

Minor resistance above the 200-day SMA at 42,318 can be spotted at Tuesday-to-Wednesday's price gap at 42,439-to-42,485.

Dow drops on US fiscal concerns, natural gas futures keel over as EUR/JPY slips_1

EUR/JPY expected to decline further

EUR/JPY's recent decline from its mid-May high at ¥165.21 is taking it through its March-to-May uptrend line at ¥162.56 with the 55-day SMA and 19 May low at ¥162.18-to-¥162.15 about to be reached.

These are likely to soon give way with the late April-to-early May lows at ¥161.71-to-¥161.60 expected to soon be reached, as well as the 200-day SMA at ¥161.40. The 22 April low at ¥160.99 may also be reached. If fallen through, a more significant top may be formed with the early April low at ¥158.31 being back in sight.

Immediate downside pressure should remain in play while Wednesday's high at ¥163.41 isn't overcome.

Slightly above this level minor resistance may be found around the 25 April high at ¥163.75 ahead of key resistance at ¥164.18-to-¥165.23, made up of the December-to-May highs.

Dow drops on US fiscal concerns, natural gas futures keel over as EUR/JPY slips_2

Natural gas futures under pressure

US natural gas futures prices are in the process of keeling over and slipping back towards their 200-day SMA at 276.4. Below it support can be spotted at the 19 May low at 266.7.

Were this level to be slipped through, the 25-to-28 April gap at 260.5-to-255.3 would likely get filled before the April low at 244.00 may be revisited.

Were Wednesday's high at 300.5 to be exceeded, though, the above scenario would likely be delayed while the March-to-May downtrend line at 310.8 may be probed. Slightly further up meanders the 55-day SMA at 315.3 which may also act as potential resistance as well as the 9 May peak at 326.1. While the latter level caps, the medium-term downtrend remains valid.

Dow drops on US fiscal concerns, natural gas futures keel over as EUR/JPY slips_3

Source: ig

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Michelle

Economic

Forex

US business activity and output expectations improved this month as trade-related anxiety eased even as price pressures continued to mount due to tariffs.

The S&P Global flash May composite index of output rose 1.5 points to 52.1 after sliding a month earlier to the lowest since 2023, according to data released Thursday. Figures above 50 indicate growth, and the acceleration reflected expansion at both manufacturers and services providers.

“Business confidence has improved in May from the worrying slump seen in April, with gloom about prospects for the year ahead lifting somewhat thanks largely to the pause on higher rate tariffs,’’ Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in a statement.

While the figures indicate a welcome stabilization in both activity and sentiment, companies are having success passing on higher duties on imports of goods and materials. A composite measure of prices charged accelerated for a third month to the highest since August 2022.

The pickup reflected concerns about supply shortages that is also prompting many producers to build inventory. A measure of stockpiles of materials and other inputs at manufacturers surged to the highest level in survey data back to 2007.

“At least some of the upturn in May can be linked to companies and their customers seeking to front-run further possible tariff-related issues, most notably the potential for future tariff hikes after the 90-day pause lapses in July,’’ Williamson said.

The manufacturing purchasing managers index climbed to a three-month high of 52.3, fueled in part by the fastest growth in new orders in more than a year. Output expectations also rose to the highest since February.

Nonetheless, the factory data also illustrated lingering uncertainty and indications how producers are responding to higher costs. Export orders contracted for a second month along with employment.

Export bookings also weakened for service providers, with the gauge showing the steepest contraction since the pandemic lockdowns in 2020.

The pickup this month in overall activity at service providers reflected firmer new business.