Bitcoin Price Today: Plunges Below $71k As Global Tech Sell-off Hits Risk Assets

The Dollar Index (DXY) continues to unfold from the September 2022 peak as a five‑wave cycle, with the structure now approaching the conclusion of wave ((5)). Wave ((4)) of this impulse move ended at 100.395 on November 21, 2025, after which the Dollar resumed its decline. The Index currently displays only a clear three‑swing sequence down from the November 21 high, which strongly suggests that the downside remains incomplete. From wave ((4)), wave 1 terminated at 97.75, while wave 2 retraced higher to 99.53, as reflected in the one‑hour chart. The Index then resumed lower in wave 3.

Within wave 3, wave ((i)) ended at 98.24, followed by a rally in wave ((ii)) that peaked at 98.86. The decline continued with wave ((iii)) reaching 96.8, while wave ((iv)) recovered modestly to 97.28. Wave ((v)) then pushed lower to 95.55, completing wave 3 at a higher degree. The Index corrected in wave 4, which unfolded as a zigzag structure. From the wave 3 low, wave ((a)) advanced to 96.78, wave ((b)) pulled back to 96.01, and wave ((c)) rose to 97.73, completing wave 4. The Dollar has since resumed its decline in wave 5.

Near term, as long as the pivot at 99.53 remains intact, the expectation is for the Dollar to extend lower. The potential target lies within the 123.6% to 161.8% external retracement zone, which aligns at 94.2–95.5. This projection reinforces the view that the bearish cycle is still in progress and that further weakness is likely before the larger structure completes.

Dollar Index (DXY) 60 minute chart

DXY Elliott Wave video:

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Source: Elliott Wave Forecast

Indian officials are scrambling to manage the fallout from a surprise trade deal announced by U.S. President Donald Trump, as a lack of concrete details fuels anxiety among farmers and investors. While Trump hailed the agreement as a major win for the United. States, the Indian government is now working to reassure its domestic audience that it has not conceded too much.

Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has made public statements twice in two days, insisting that India’s sensitive agricultural sector, particularly dairy, was adequately protected during negotiations. Officials also clarified that a reported commitment to purchase $500 billion in U.S. goods over five years includes projects already planned.

The initial market reaction was positive, with Indian financial markets and the currency rallying on Tuesday. However, stocks leveled off by Wednesday as investors paused to await the fine print of the deal.

New Delhi Defends Pact Amid Farmer Backlash

The core of the controversy lies in agriculture. Farmers are a powerful political constituency in India, where millions of smallholders cultivate less than five acres of land. The deal has sparked fears that they will be unable to compete with an influx of American agricultural products.

During the lengthy trade talks, Washington consistently pushed New Delhi to open its heavily protected farm sector. Key U.S. demands included greater access for genetically modified crops, which dominate American corn and soybean production, and entry for its dairy products—an industry India carefully guards.

In a bid to calm rising tensions, Goyal told parliament on Wednesday that "the Indian side has been successful in safeguarding its sensitive sectors," specifically citing agriculture and dairy.

Opposition and Farmer Groups Vow Protests

Despite government assurances, farmer organizations and opposition parties have fiercely criticized the agreement. The Samyukt Kisan Morcha, an agricultural group, has promised nationwide protests, including a potential strike on February 12.

"We won't allow US farmers to enter India," declared Mohini Mishra, general secretary of the Bharatiya Kisan Sangh, another farmers' group with ties to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's parent organization.

The opposition has seized on the issue, disrupting parliamentary proceedings and preventing Modi from speaking on Wednesday. Rahul Gandhi, a leader of the opposition Indian National Congress, claimed that "the hard work, sweat and blood of Indian farmers has been sold by Narendra Modi in this deal."

Unpacking the Terms of the Agreement

According to President Trump’s announcement, the deal involves significant tariff adjustments:

• India will reportedly reduce its tariffs on American goods to zero.

• The U.S. will lower its tariff on Indian shipments from 50% to 18%.

• A punitive 25% U.S. duty imposed on India for purchasing Russian oil will be lifted.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer celebrated the agreement as a "big win," stating that India would eliminate tariffs on a range of American products, from tree nuts and fruits to wine and spirits. U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins added that the deal would inject "cash into rural America."

However, Modi’s government has not confirmed many of these details, and neither side has released official documentation. Indian officials, many of whom were reportedly surprised by Trump’s announcement, have stated that a joint statement with more information will be released in the coming days.

Widespread Confusion Clouds Economic Outlook

The information vacuum has left multiple sectors uncertain about the future.

"The US-India trade deal can be considered as a positive from macro and market standpoint. However, one should wait for the fine print for more clarity," noted analysts at Mirae Asset Mutual Fund.

This pattern is not new for the Trump administration. In July, the president announced a tariff reduction for Vietnam on social media, but the framework agreement was only released in October and still lacked crucial specifics.

Beyond agriculture, other Indian industries are seeking clarity:

• Oil Refiners: Indian oil refiners are unclear about the future of Russian crude purchases after Trump claimed India would stop buying from Moscow. The Kremlin stated it had not been informed of any such plans.

• Gems and Jewelry: Companies in labor-intensive sectors like gems and jewelry do not know which specific products will benefit from zero tariffs.

• Steel and Auto: It remains unclear if separate U.S. tariffs on steel and auto components, imposed under Section 232, will be phased out as part of this agreement.

South Korea's government has launched a comprehensive national strategy to reinforce its supply chain for rare earth elements, addressing the country's heavy dependence on China for materials critical to advanced industries.

The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources announced the first-of-its-kind plan, highlighting the essential role rare earths play in strategic sectors like semiconductors, electric vehicles (EVs), and defense. The strategy aims to build national capacity across every stage of the supply chain, from raw material extraction to final product manufacturing.

Vice Industry Minister Moon Shin-hak outlines the government's new rare earth strategy at a joint public-private meeting in Seoul on October 16, 2025.

A Full-Spectrum Approach to the Supply Chain

The core of the strategy is to develop capabilities throughout the entire rare earth value chain. This includes:

• Upstream: Supporting resource development and mining.

• Midstream: Enhancing the separation and purification of rare earth elements.

• Downstream: Turning refined elements into usable materials, such as permanent magnets for industrial use.

Balancing Global Partnerships and Diversification

To ensure stability, the government will pursue a multi-pronged international approach. In the short term, it plans to expand cooperation with China, the dominant global supplier, alongside resource-rich nations like Vietnam and Laos to prevent immediate supply chain disruptions.

Simultaneously, Korea will seek deeper collaboration with major economies, including the United States, Japan, and Australia. The government also plans to participate in global supply chain initiatives like the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) to build a more resilient network.

Boosting Domestic Production and Investment

A key pillar of the plan is to foster domestic capabilities and reduce foreign reliance. The government will actively support private companies leading overseas resource development projects.

To fuel this growth, the government is implementing several financial measures:

• The loan program for overseas resource development will be increased to 67.5 billion won ($46.2 million) this year, a significant rise from 39 billion won in 2025.

• Policy finance will also be expanded to support key projects.

• Companies investing in domestic production facilities will receive government support.

• To stimulate local demand, the government will prioritize stockpiling rare earths produced within Korea.

The strategy also includes establishing a robust resource recycling ecosystem to recover rare earth elements from used EVs and home appliances.

Developing Independent Technology and Expertise

Finally, the plan outlines a roadmap for developing independent technologies for the separation and purification of rare earths. This focus on technological sovereignty extends to creating advanced resource recycling methods, aiming to build a self-sufficient and circular economy for these vital materials.

Indonesia's economy posted its strongest growth in three years during the final quarter, fueled by government stimulus that successfully boosted domestic demand. The performance provides a potential lift to market sentiment following recent pressure on the rupiah and local stocks.

Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 5.39% in the three months ending in December compared to the same period a year earlier, according to the national statistics agency. This figure surpassed the median forecast of 5.1% and represents the fastest growth since the third quarter of 2022, when the economy grew by 5.73%.

For the full year, GDP growth accelerated to 5.11% from 5.03% in 2024.

Key Drivers of the Economic Surge

Government Stimulus Fuels Consumption

A key factor behind the stronger-than-expected growth was a significant injection of state funds. The government disbursed an additional US$1.8 billion in social assistance during the fourth quarter, directly supporting a rebound in household consumption.

Investment and Manufacturing Gain Momentum

The economy also benefited from faster expansion in investment. This was supported by a notable uptick in manufacturing activity between October and December.

Data from the statistics agency showed that nearly all industries expanded in the fourth quarter, with manufacturing, trade, and agriculture providing the largest contributions to growth. The only exception was the mining sector, which did not post an expansion.

Market Reaction and Fiscal Outlook

Following the data release, stocks registered a modest gain of 0.1%, while the rupiah continued a 0.3% decline amid a strengthening U.S. dollar. The yield on the benchmark 10-year government bond remained unchanged.

The strong growth figures align with the government's efforts to lift Indonesia's economic trajectory from its two-decade average of 5% toward President Prabowo Subianto's ambitious 8% target. However, this aggressive growth strategy has sparked concerns that the fiscal deficit could breach the country's mandated cap, potentially undermining its reputation for fiscal discipline.

A Regional Economic Snapshot

Indonesia's robust performance shows it is gaining ground on its regional peers. While the Philippines reported a growth slump to just 3% in the fourth quarter, both Malaysia and Singapore recorded a 5.7% expansion. Vietnam's economy grew at an impressive pace of 8.46% during the same period.

Policy and Projections for the Year Ahead

Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa recently affirmed that Indonesia's growth momentum remains strong, defending the nation's economic fundamentals amid stock market volatility linked to an MSCI warning about local stock investability. He projected that the economy could expand by 6% this year, driven by a combination of fiscal, monetary, and private-sector initiatives.

Looking ahead, the government plans to accelerate spending in early 2026 to further support consumer purchasing power, partly through additional fiscal aid. Bank Indonesia is also widely expected to ease its monetary policy this year. To foster long-term growth, the government aims to attract more investment through its new sovereign wealth fund, Danantara.

Trump Sets Clear Condition for Fed Chair Nominee

President Donald Trump has stated he would have refused to nominate Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve if Warsh had expressed any desire to raise interest rates.

"If he came in and said, 'I want to raise it,' he would not have gotten the job, no," Trump said during an NBC News interview on Wednesday.

The president added there was "not much" doubt that the Fed would ultimately lower rates. He argued that rates are "way high" even though the U.S. is "a rich country again." When asked if Warsh understood the president's preference for lower rates, Trump responded, "I think he does, but I think he wants to anyway."

A Challenge to Federal Reserve Independence

Trump's comments are poised to become a central issue during any potential confirmation process for Warsh, bringing the Federal Reserve's political independence under intense scrutiny.

While the president said he believed "in theory" that the central bank is an independent body, he also asserted that his own economic predictions should be considered because he is a "smart guy."

These remarks follow a months-long pressure campaign from Trump aimed at outgoing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, urging him to cut interest rates. Although administration officials have denied any intention to undermine the Fed's autonomy, Powell has described a related probe into the bank as a thinly veiled attack on its ability to set monetary policy independently.

Confirmation Battle Complicated by Senate Blockade

The nomination process faces additional political obstacles. Republican Senator Thom Tillis, a member of the Banking Committee, has pledged to block any of Trump’s nominees to the central bank.

Tillis’s blockade will remain until the Justice Department concludes an investigation into the Federal Reserve's renovation project. Trump, however, dismissed this threat on Wednesday, saying "a lot of people say a lot of things." He also repeated his own criticism of the construction project, stating, "This guy has spent so much money."

Who is Kevin Warsh?

Kevin Warsh is a former Fed governor who previously developed a reputation as an inflation hawk. More recently, however, he has voiced support for lower interest rates, a policy stance that appears to align with the president’s demands.

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Source: CNBC