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Gold prices continue to tread water around $3,300 an ounce, buoyed by broader investor optimism and a one-month delay in U.S. import tariffs. Although shifting investor sentiment could continue to weigh on gold, one research firm expects prices to remain well supported through the rest of the year.

In their latest note, commodity analysts at Metals Focus said they see limited downside for gold in the second half of the year as ongoing economic uncertainty is expected to support investment demand.

“Although the global economy appears to have avoided a full-scale trade war, U.S. tariffs are expected to remain historically high for some time. Perhaps more significantly, while the U.S. economy has remained resilient thus far, the inflationary impact of tariffs may take several months to fully resonate with consumers. The risk of stagnation is therefore likely to persist,” the analysts said in the report.

Spot gold last traded at $3,315.76 an ounce, roughly unchanged on the day.

The British precious metals research firm added that concerns about unsustainable global debt are another factor likely to support gold’s long-term uptrend. Specifically, investors are keeping a close eye on U.S. government debt, which has now surpassed $37 trillion.

At the same time, new budget legislation is expected to increase the deficit by nearly $4 trillion over the next 10 years. Fears over the size of the U.S. government’s debt have kept long-term bond yields elevated and pushed the U.S. dollar to multi-year lows.

“President Trump’s tax-and-spending bill is projected to widen the deficit, keeping bond supply concerns in focus. Investor confidence in the independence of the U.S. central bank will also remain a key issue. While the dollar’s role as the primary reserve currency is not under immediate threat, longer-term concerns about its stability continue to support gold,” they said.

Some analysts have noted that gold could struggle in the second half of the year as bullish positioning has become overcrowded. However, Metals Focus noted that positioning in July has eased.

“At the start of July, net managed money long positions in CME futures returned to levels last seen in April, though they remain well below the highs recorded earlier in the year,” the analysts said. “Similarly, after modest outflows in May, gold exchange-traded products (ETPs) saw renewed inflows in June, with global holdings by the end of June rising to their highest level since August 2022. Measured in U.S. dollar terms, gold ETPs reached a new all-time high end-month value of $383 billion.”

Source: Kitco

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Source:marketpulse

The number of individuals filing for unemployment insurance for the first time, also known as initial jobless claims, has shown a decrease, according to the latest data. The actual figure stands at 227K, a significant drop compared to the forecasted number of 236K.

The lower than expected reading is seen as a positive indicator for the U.S. dollar. Economists and market watchers often view the initial jobless claims data as one of the earliest indicators of the country’s economic health. A lower number suggests fewer layoffs and potentially a more robust job market.

The actual number of 227K is not only lower than the forecasted figure but also represents a decrease from the previous figure of 232K. This decline further emphasizes the improving conditions of the U.S. labor market.

The jobless claims data can fluctuate from week to week, but the latest figures show a promising trend. The decrease in initial jobless claims suggests that fewer people are being laid off, which may indicate a strengthening job market and overall economy.

The drop in initial jobless claims is likely to be seen as a bullish sign for the USD. Economists often interpret a lower than expected jobless claims figure as a positive sign for the U.S. dollar, as it suggests a stronger economy and potentially higher interest rates.

In conclusion, the latest initial jobless claims data is a positive sign for the U.S. economy, with the actual number of claims falling below both the forecasted and previous figures. This data suggests a strengthening labor market, which could bode well for the overall health of the U.S. economy and the strength of the U.S. dollar.

Source: Investing

Source: kitco

US buyers of copper will pay a high price if President Donald Trump pushes ahead with a 50% tariff on refined metal as opposed to copper products such as wiring, according to officials in Chile.

While Chile hasn’t received any formal notification and is unaware of the details of the measure, Mining Minister Aurora Williams noted that US manufacturing is dependent on Chilean copper.

Chile accounts for roughly 70% of copper shipped to the US, with state-owned Codelco representing most of that. Still, it would be US buyers — makers of intermediate forms of copper such as wires, rods and tubes — that would pay the levy. They would have little choice as America relies on imports for almost half of its copper needs.

Chile ships “top-notch refined copper with high levels of traceability, so we are interested in that being duly recognized not just in the US but the whole market,” the minister told reporters in Santiago on Thursday. “Chilean mining production, in all its gambits, has high responsibility, is highly valued and highly necessary for manufacturing in the US.”

Chile has been seeking a tariff exemption in its discussions with US officials, Williams said. “That is a topic that’s on the table.”

US buyers would incur higher costs if the tariff is applied to refined metal, Antofagasta Plc Chief Executive Officer Ivan Arriagada said on the sidelines of the same industry event.

“Undoubtedly that would put pressure on makers of copper products in the US, and so it is a concern,” he said.

For Chilean suppliers like Antofagasta, the US represents about a 10th of total copper sales. China is by far the biggest buyer.

The copper market is likely to remain volatile, Arriagada said. Once tariffs are introduced, consumers in the US would draw from stockpiles that have built up ahead of time, impacting demand.

Beyond that, “copper continues to be in relative scarcity,” he said.

Source: Bloomberg Europe